iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Ernesto Tiburcio

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

New working paper w/ Hanna Folsz In Jan 2025 Trump issued an executive order targeting corporate DEI programs. Many companies ended DEI fearing financial risk We find that firms that kept DEI performed just as well in financial markets, revenue, etc democracypolicylab.berkeley.edu/wp-content/u...

The Trump administration has used executive authority to influence the behavior of civil society organizations such as law firms, universities, and corporations.
Do corporations that resist executive orders perform worse financially? In January 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive order directing federal
agencies to investigate and compel firms to eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs. Some firms complied with the order, whereas other firms
resisted by reaffirming their DEI programs. We find that S&P 500 firms that
maintained their DEI programs performed just as well as compliant firms, both
in terms of stock market returns and revenue. The results are robust across various measures of maintaining DEI, including measures based on executives’ public
statements about DEI programs, interest group ratings, firm financial statements,
and shareholder rejections of anti-DEI resolutions. The results suggest that, at
least in some areas, firms can resist pressure from the executive branch with
minimal costs to financial performance.

7307115

Ernesto Tiburcio @ernestotiburcio.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Newly formed politically mismatched couples in states with abortion bans were 11% less likely to remain together in 2022, relative to mismatched couples in states with abortion protections. There are no clear differences for matched couples, nor differences before or after the bans.

020

Ernesto Tiburcio @ernestotiburcio.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Political differences matter for relationship duration. In a new study, @rfunkfordham.bsky.social and I identify 60 million couples in the US and find that, even after considering variables like income, those formed by partners registered to different parties are ~14% less likely to stay together

26414

Reposted by Ernesto Tiburcio

Horacio Larreguy @hlarreguy.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Very happy to see "Political polarization in low- and middle-income countries" with Ernesto Tiburcio in print! Free view-only version: rdcu.be/fpIKE

153

Ernesto Tiburcio @ernestotiburcio.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

A wonderful review of what we know about the causes and consequences migration

052

Reposted by Ernesto Tiburcio

VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Political polarisation has been rising sharply in both advanced and developing democracies. This VoxDevLit, with Co-Editor @ernestotiburcio.bsky.social @goldmanschool.bsky.social, will continue to be updated as new evidence is released.

111

Reposted by Ernesto Tiburcio

VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

📢 Our new VoxDevLit on Political Polarisation is out now! Senior Editors Cesi Cruz (University of Michigan) & Horacio Larreguy (ITAM) review research on the causes and consequences of polarisation. Read & download here: voxdev.org/voxdevlit/political-pola…

177

Reposted by Ernesto Tiburcio

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

1/🧵 "More voters help Republicans" is reshaping Dem strategy after 2024. We put this claim to the test with a deep dive into voter files and survey data. Results? Non-voters remain disproportionately Democratic while GOP simply turns out their base better.

open.substack.com

Does Higher Turnout Now Help Republicans? A Data-Driven Analysis of Partisan Turnout Dynamics (Part 1)

Data analysis reveals Democrats' problem isn't high turnout—it's losing the mobilization battle

23697265

Reposted by Ernesto Tiburcio

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Big deal—after correcting, it turns out that moderate candidates do not perform better than extreme candidates in general elections. Kudos to Andy, Dan, and Adam for updating a key question in political science

Andy Hall &
@ahall_research
In 2018, Dan Thompson and I published a paper in the APSR estimating large vote share and turnout effects for the nomination of more-extreme House candidates in the 2006--2014 period. Recently, Adam Bonica showed us an important imbalance in the data from our paper that makes us doubt our findings. We've written an update to the paper explaining this issue here:
andrewbeniaminhall.com/hall
_thompson_...
We have four main takeaways from this exercise:
(1) The evidence in our sample from 2006--2014 that more-extreme nominees cause large changes in a party's vote share or share of general-election turnout is far weaker than we previously thought, and should not be relied on.
(2) Because our sample of years does not provide a sufficiently large, stable effect on vote share, the design is unsuitable for understanding whether there is an underlying relationship

361551444

Reposted by Ernesto Tiburcio

ghost malone ergo propter bones @proptermalone.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

not the main thing maybe but the most popular beer in America is brewed in Mexico

2879876

Reposted by Ernesto Tiburcio

Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 02/02/2025

Science is political. It wouldn't necessarily have to be partisan. But when one party is opposed to science-based policy, scientists have a choice between saying "you're right, thoughts and prayers are probably as effective as reducing carbon emissions" or saying "fuck that."

171745427

Reposted by Ernesto Tiburcio

Maya Sen @mayasen.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

There is a real pattern where centrists in positions of authority are radicalized sharply rightward after being scolded/criticized by more liberal young people Happens at universities too!

5340972