iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

OK. Well I see 13% and it seems way too high. I think the HVS vacancy categories can be really unclear. A second home may not be lived in, but it's not really available in the same way a completed-unsold home is.

000

My estimate is closer to 1 million but in places like NYC, Chicago, LA, SF and at prices people can pay. Add 5 million vacant homes would mean 15 out of 100 homes left empty. Do that and homebuilding capital would exit en masse (again). Slide from my NMHC deck. Vacancy is pretty close to normal!

120

Why is that the benchmark? ~5 million lost their homes in foreclosure to get that 14-15% vacancy. I don't think that supply argument is super compelling.

100

What is your benchmark? Averaging over some historical period?

100

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 29/05/2026

How do you get 5 million? Including off-market, seasonal use, etc.? Or is your equilibrium vacancy just very high?

110

"Most things don't exist. The Ford Motor Company hardly exists. It's just a time-saving expression for a collection of financial interests."

030

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 26/05/2026

WSJ rightly (if not sadly) calls Denver "America's Emptiest Downtown". Migration patterns tell the story: in-migration fell dramatically after 2020.

alt text for this chart4:48 PMClaude responded: Front Range Colorado Domestic Net Migration, 2011–2025Front Range Colorado Domestic Net Migration, 2011–2025
Bar and line chart showing annual domestic net migration for Denver MSA (navy bars), Greeley MSA (orange bars), and combined Front Range metros including Denver, Greeley, Boulder, Fort Collins, and Colorado Springs (yellow line with dots). Source: US Census Bureau, tabulated by John Burns Research and Consulting (data through 2025, published May 26).
Denver MSA posted positive domestic net migration every year from 2011 through 2020, peaking around 32,000 in 2015, then declining steadily. Starting in 2021, Denver flipped to net domestic out-migration, reaching roughly negative 14,000 by 2024 before partially recovering in 2025. Greeley MSA remained small but positive throughout, generally ranging from near zero to around 6,000. The combined Front Range line peaked near 55,000 in 2015, declined through 2020, and has hovered near zero to slightly negative since 2021, reflecting Denver's drag offsetting continued modest gains in smaller metros.

020

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 22/05/2026

Making legal immigrants who want green cards leave US for 1-3+ yrs could hit hardest in states with the most people and fastest growth. The map shows areas of maximum impact - CA, NY, FL, TX, NV, AZ (New policy doesn't affect *all* immigrants, so %s overstate impact in each state)

Choropleth map of the US showing foreign-born share of households by state in 2025. California leads at 33%, followed by New York (30%), Florida (28%), Nevada (24%), and Texas (24%). Most interior states fall below 10%. Source: John Burns Research and Consulting

061

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 21/05/2026

Working hypothesis: Japan's housing market looks ~25 years ahead of the US. Japan's population peaked in 2010. (Ours probably peaks in the 2030s.) Abandoned homes are piling up in smaller cities. Yet housing stock is still expanding are prices are up >10% YOY in high demand areas (ex: Tokyo).

050

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 13/05/2026

A well-written wall of text >>>>>>>

040

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 13/05/2026

bsky.app/profile/edza... @edzarenski.bsky.social for construction-related PPI insights

Go ahead and make your own chart that compresses 50 years of variance across 6 data series. To me that's a complete nonstarter.

100

I'm sorry, that must be really hard for you? When you're ready to talk solutions, my advice is make your own charts

100

I think covid/3% rates pulled forward a lot of first-time buyers. Seeing aftermath of that now with entry-level builders struggling but move-up/luxury builders doing comparatively better. With lower marriage has come more living w/ parents. Hard to tease out pure causality though (at least for me)

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 21/04/2026

Wonk alert. The traditional homeownership rate (% of householders that own) misses that householder rates tanked after 2010. Homeownership (measured by population) is near historic lows for those of us under 70.

Six line charts showing US population-based homeownership rates by age group, 1976–2025.

Younger groups fell furthest from their peaks: ages 30–39 down 23 points (69% in 1980 to 46% in 2025), ages 40–49 down 17 points (78% to 61%), ages 50–59 down 14 points (81% to 67%).

Older groups held steadier: ages 60–69 down 8 points, 70–79 down 3 points, 80+ down 1 point.

Sidebar note: this adjusted measure tracks homeowners as a share of each age group's population, not households. The traditional homeownership rate can rise even when fewer people own homes, because it only counts owner-occupied homes against all households.

Source: John Burns Research and Consulting, US Census Bureau.

3101

Yes--by state, MSA/metro division, and county...monthly, now up through January 2026.

100

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 21/04/2026

Same but household formation. We're missing about ~700K Gen Z households today because they're moving out of mom & dad's later. They'll move out and form new households, just later. We're gonna be OK.

030

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 20/04/2026

We've been calling out the statewide Florida demographic slowdown to clients for the past year+. I was talking with a homebuilder in Nashville last week. They're seeing fewer California transplants but more buyers from Florida. Go figure.

1102

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 20/04/2026

I appreciate being able to contribute to this story on Florida's stalled-out population boom. The Census data is finally catching up with the domestic migration losses we've been seeing (and alerting clients to) since late 2024.

041

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 11/04/2026

My suggestion, imagine the most nefarious interpretation possible and assume it's that.

000

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 11/04/2026

What does drawn-out economic decline look like? Here's Main & Main in Jordan, NY, near the old Erie Canal Lock 59, also where I grew up. A typical grey spring day. It peaked in 1860, but population began falling as railroads replaced the canal as the main NYC shipping route. (Those are horses.)

120

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 06/04/2026

How old is the first-time homebuyer? Turns out, the best answer is probably, "Mid-/late 30s" and "a bit older than in 2010."

041

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 02/04/2026

careful... just opened our sprinkler valve today (overhead, via ceiling panel in the basement) and got a nice shower from a cracked fitting.

000

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 01/04/2026

$0.28 → $0.07 as Supreme Court hears arguments for/against birthright citizenship ban

000

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 31/03/2026

Other than a flurry of articles recently, what's going on here? Supreme Court session hasn't even started yet. Is it a liquidity thing? Volume is $232K.

130

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 25/03/2026

Weird proof of my own personal AI productivity boom, booking travel feels way more annoying now. Thinking about what I can do with an AI-assisted hour today vs. 1 hour planning routes, booking flights/hotels/etc. for a multi-city trip. The difference is so much wider now than 3-4 mos ago.

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 05/03/2026

Book-ins to ICE facilities, a precursor to deportation, have been roughly matching 2019 rates.