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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 08/06/2026

$100K fee on new H-1B applications = gone for now Should be good news for large homebuilders, especially if it stays dead. We heard the fee announcement immediately froze new home sales in some parts of the US.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 08/06/2026

Surgical approach seems unequivocally better. Still unclear to me is what's optimal in terms of reallocating resources away from processing visas, green cards, etc. (if that's what's behind the recent delays) trackmyvisanow.com/blog/i129f-2...

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 08/06/2026

Reported by Camilo Montoya-Galvez. He's been solid/even-handed on immigration for at least ~3 years now

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 05/06/2026

My estimate is closer to 1 million but in places like NYC, Chicago, LA, SF and at prices people can pay. Add 5 million vacant homes would mean 15 out of 100 homes left empty. Do that and homebuilding capital would exit en masse (again). Slide from my NMHC deck. Vacancy is pretty close to normal!

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 05/06/2026

Why is that the benchmark? ~5 million lost their homes in foreclosure to get that 14-15% vacancy. I don't think that supply argument is super compelling.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 26/05/2026

WSJ rightly (if not sadly) calls Denver "America's Emptiest Downtown". Migration patterns tell the story: in-migration fell dramatically after 2020.

alt text for this chart4:48 PMClaude responded: Front Range Colorado Domestic Net Migration, 2011–2025Front Range Colorado Domestic Net Migration, 2011–2025
Bar and line chart showing annual domestic net migration for Denver MSA (navy bars), Greeley MSA (orange bars), and combined Front Range metros including Denver, Greeley, Boulder, Fort Collins, and Colorado Springs (yellow line with dots). Source: US Census Bureau, tabulated by John Burns Research and Consulting (data through 2025, published May 26).
Denver MSA posted positive domestic net migration every year from 2011 through 2020, peaking around 32,000 in 2015, then declining steadily. Starting in 2021, Denver flipped to net domestic out-migration, reaching roughly negative 14,000 by 2024 before partially recovering in 2025. Greeley MSA remained small but positive throughout, generally ranging from near zero to around 6,000. The combined Front Range line peaked near 55,000 in 2015, declined through 2020, and has hovered near zero to slightly negative since 2021, reflecting Denver's drag offsetting continued modest gains in smaller metros.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 22/05/2026

Making legal immigrants who want green cards leave US for 1-3+ yrs could hit hardest in states with the most people and fastest growth. The map shows areas of maximum impact - CA, NY, FL, TX, NV, AZ (New policy doesn't affect *all* immigrants, so %s overstate impact in each state)

Choropleth map of the US showing foreign-born share of households by state in 2025. California leads at 33%, followed by New York (30%), Florida (28%), Nevada (24%), and Texas (24%). Most interior states fall below 10%. Source: John Burns Research and Consulting

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 21/05/2026

Working hypothesis: Japan's housing market looks ~25 years ahead of the US. Japan's population peaked in 2010. (Ours probably peaks in the 2030s.) Abandoned homes are piling up in smaller cities. Yet housing stock is still expanding are prices are up >10% YOY in high demand areas (ex: Tokyo).

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 07/05/2026

Wonk alert. The traditional homeownership rate (% of householders that own) misses that householder rates tanked after 2010. Homeownership (measured by population) is near historic lows for those of us under 70.

Six line charts showing US population-based homeownership rates by age group, 1976–2025.

Younger groups fell furthest from their peaks: ages 30–39 down 23 points (69% in 1980 to 46% in 2025), ages 40–49 down 17 points (78% to 61%), ages 50–59 down 14 points (81% to 67%).

Older groups held steadier: ages 60–69 down 8 points, 70–79 down 3 points, 80+ down 1 point.

Sidebar note: this adjusted measure tracks homeowners as a share of each age group's population, not households. The traditional homeownership rate can rise even when fewer people own homes, because it only counts owner-occupied homes against all households.

Source: John Burns Research and Consulting, US Census Bureau.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 20/04/2026

We've been calling out the statewide Florida demographic slowdown to clients for the past year+. I was talking with a homebuilder in Nashville last week. They're seeing fewer California transplants but more buyers from Florida. Go figure.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 20/04/2026

I appreciate being able to contribute to this story on Florida's stalled-out population boom. The Census data is finally catching up with the domestic migration losses we've been seeing (and alerting clients to) since late 2024.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 11/04/2026

What does drawn-out economic decline look like? Here's Main & Main in Jordan, NY, near the old Erie Canal Lock 59, also where I grew up. A typical grey spring day. It peaked in 1860, but population began falling as railroads replaced the canal as the main NYC shipping route. (Those are horses.)

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 06/04/2026

How old is the first-time homebuyer? Turns out, the best answer is probably, "Mid-/late 30s" and "a bit older than in 2010."

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 01/04/2026

$0.28 → $0.07 as Supreme Court hears arguments for/against birthright citizenship ban

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 31/03/2026

Other than a flurry of articles recently, what's going on here? Supreme Court session hasn't even started yet. Is it a liquidity thing? Volume is $232K.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 05/03/2026

Book-ins to ICE facilities, a precursor to deportation, have been roughly matching 2019 rates.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 05/03/2026

Before today, DHS secretary‑nominee Mullin has been publicly in favor of current immigration enforcement levels and tactics. Not expecting any big U-turn on enforcement action, targeting, deportation levels, etc.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 25/02/2026

This quote sums it up, not to mention falling LFPR for women age 20-32 vs. rising for women age 33-60: "for young women, confronted with a lack of work opportunities – but an abundance of prosperous young men - getting married early and having a large family was a natural choice."

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 25/02/2026

In 1950s-60s, UK brides and grooms married younger than any point since at least 1550. Why? A big reason is the the post-WW2 job market...

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 19/02/2026

@bencarlson007.bsky.social's bookshelf game, impressive. Really need to get step up. Oh and conversation was great too. "When do Baby Boomers' homes hit the market?" is one of the most-asked questions clients/others ask. We go into that and a bunch more. www.youtube.com/watch?v=utrU...

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 18/02/2026

Over the next decade, we'll see an unprecedent share of jobs, spending, and living spaces directed toward caring for America's elderly population. Source: www.wsj.com/economy/over...

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 18/02/2026

Just talked about this on a podcast. Baby boomers (and older) are 23% of the population but 43% of homeowners. They're also living longer, more active, and wealthier than their parents - and most never want to move.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 11/02/2026

Slowly but surely, work-from-home creeps lower. Low white-collar hiring probably brings this national figure lower over time, with very different paths regionally.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 10/02/2026

What @edzarenski.bsky.social describes is the *exact* result predicted by Howard, Wang, and Zhang (2025)... Immigration enforcement causes "significant loss of undocumented workers in construction" AND "net job losses for US-born workers." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 10/02/2026

My entire experience with Copilot, so far

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 07/02/2026

US deaths held steady at 3.1 million in 2025, in line with the path from before 2020. We'll see this inch up every year from now on.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 02/02/2026

After declining for 13 years, US births have held steady since 2021. Why? Moms 30 and up are having more kids than ever, offsetting the long-term decline for moms under 30.

Bar chart titled "Annual US Births" spanning 1970 to 2025. The chart shows births climbing from 2 million in 1970 to a peak of 4.3 million around 2007, followed by a steady decline to 3.62 million in 2025, matching birth rates from four decades prior.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 02/02/2026

US births held steady at 3.62 million in 2025, near a 40+ year low.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 23/01/2026

Been saying 'Silver Tsunami' will more be a 'slow trickle'

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 23/01/2026

US homes transferred by inheritance jumped 26% to 342K last year (source: Cotality) Not what you'd expect in a silver tsunami.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 23/01/2026

1.2 million excess deaths during pandemic did not kneecap housing demand. In fact, housing demand boomed. In 2020–2022, the number of homes lived in as primary residence grew at the fastest pace since probably the 1970s.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 14/01/2026

Ah, turns out AP is reporting the ban does not apply to non-immigrant (e.g., tourism) visas. Bloomberg's article didn't distinguish.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 14/01/2026

Oh--Bloomberg's article doesn't distinguish but AP's does. Seems you're right. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 13/01/2026

Brookings and CBO agree US immigration slowed dramatically in 2025. Neither expects a significant rebound in 2026.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 13/01/2026

Pulse check on immigration enforcement. Source: YouGov Survey, ICE Policies and Practices January 9 - 11, 2026 - 1,129 U.S. adult citizens

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 10/01/2026

An under-appreciated "demographic cliff" of the next 20 years: Social Security Administration is extremely optimistic on both net immigration and birth rates, leading to unrealistic population assumptions. When (or if) they right-size their views, future social security benefits could be at risk.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 10/12/2025

Fascinating to see seasonality and multi-year cycles in the share of monthly births to first-time moms. Seasonality: typically peaks in Nov-Jan, bottoms in Jun Multi-year trends: rose through 2009, fell 2010-2019, rising again 2020-2025

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 18/11/2025

Headline on our Pro Remodeling survey last month was "Pro remodeling hits new cycle low"

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 27/10/2025

2025 feels early 2000s-ish. Solid GDP and a terrible job market. Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true. Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 21/10/2025

Lines up with research we sent to clients last week calling out Walmart HQ's metro as 1 of ~15 local housing markets most exposed to H-1B changes, based on analysis of loan-level data by citizenship status.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 14/10/2025

2 recent immigration policy shifts affecting housing: 1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency. 2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US. Vastly different impacts market by market… jbrec.com/insights/imm...

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 19/09/2025

One of the big themes I presented for clients yesterday was households hunkering down as job security becomes primary concern. In other words, need to see a bigger price change (or better job security) to bring more buyers back.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 29/08/2025

Waller: likely that employment "actually shrank" in May, June, and July

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 26/08/2025

Worth watching: Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels. Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.

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Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 17/08/2025

Reminds me of this from The Economist, each generation is also paid better than the previous at any given life stage. Really shows the difference between early 30s boomer parents and the early 40s millennials. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

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