iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 08/06/2026

$100K fee on new H-1B applications = gone for now Should be good news for large homebuilders, especially if it stays dead. We heard the fee announcement immediately froze new home sales in some parts of the US.

0111

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 05/06/2026

My estimate is closer to 1 million but in places like NYC, Chicago, LA, SF and at prices people can pay. Add 5 million vacant homes would mean 15 out of 100 homes left empty. Do that and homebuilding capital would exit en masse (again). Slide from my NMHC deck. Vacancy is pretty close to normal!

120

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 29/05/2026

"Most things don't exist. The Ford Motor Company hardly exists. It's just a time-saving expression for a collection of financial interests."

030

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 26/05/2026

WSJ rightly (if not sadly) calls Denver "America's Emptiest Downtown". Migration patterns tell the story: in-migration fell dramatically after 2020.

alt text for this chart4:48 PMClaude responded: Front Range Colorado Domestic Net Migration, 2011–2025Front Range Colorado Domestic Net Migration, 2011–2025
Bar and line chart showing annual domestic net migration for Denver MSA (navy bars), Greeley MSA (orange bars), and combined Front Range metros including Denver, Greeley, Boulder, Fort Collins, and Colorado Springs (yellow line with dots). Source: US Census Bureau, tabulated by John Burns Research and Consulting (data through 2025, published May 26).
Denver MSA posted positive domestic net migration every year from 2011 through 2020, peaking around 32,000 in 2015, then declining steadily. Starting in 2021, Denver flipped to net domestic out-migration, reaching roughly negative 14,000 by 2024 before partially recovering in 2025. Greeley MSA remained small but positive throughout, generally ranging from near zero to around 6,000. The combined Front Range line peaked near 55,000 in 2015, declined through 2020, and has hovered near zero to slightly negative since 2021, reflecting Denver's drag offsetting continued modest gains in smaller metros.

020

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 22/05/2026

Making legal immigrants who want green cards leave US for 1-3+ yrs could hit hardest in states with the most people and fastest growth. The map shows areas of maximum impact - CA, NY, FL, TX, NV, AZ (New policy doesn't affect *all* immigrants, so %s overstate impact in each state)

Choropleth map of the US showing foreign-born share of households by state in 2025. California leads at 33%, followed by New York (30%), Florida (28%), Nevada (24%), and Texas (24%). Most interior states fall below 10%. Source: John Burns Research and Consulting

061

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 21/05/2026

Working hypothesis: Japan's housing market looks ~25 years ahead of the US. Japan's population peaked in 2010. (Ours probably peaks in the 2030s.) Abandoned homes are piling up in smaller cities. Yet housing stock is still expanding are prices are up >10% YOY in high demand areas (ex: Tokyo).

050

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 07/05/2026

Wonk alert. The traditional homeownership rate (% of householders that own) misses that householder rates tanked after 2010. Homeownership (measured by population) is near historic lows for those of us under 70.

Six line charts showing US population-based homeownership rates by age group, 1976–2025.

Younger groups fell furthest from their peaks: ages 30–39 down 23 points (69% in 1980 to 46% in 2025), ages 40–49 down 17 points (78% to 61%), ages 50–59 down 14 points (81% to 67%).

Older groups held steadier: ages 60–69 down 8 points, 70–79 down 3 points, 80+ down 1 point.

Sidebar note: this adjusted measure tracks homeowners as a share of each age group's population, not households. The traditional homeownership rate can rise even when fewer people own homes, because it only counts owner-occupied homes against all households.

Source: John Burns Research and Consulting, US Census Bureau.

3101

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 21/04/2026

Same but household formation. We're missing about ~700K Gen Z households today because they're moving out of mom & dad's later. They'll move out and form new households, just later. We're gonna be OK.

030

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 20/04/2026

We've been calling out the statewide Florida demographic slowdown to clients for the past year+. I was talking with a homebuilder in Nashville last week. They're seeing fewer California transplants but more buyers from Florida. Go figure.

1102

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 11/04/2026

What does drawn-out economic decline look like? Here's Main & Main in Jordan, NY, near the old Erie Canal Lock 59, also where I grew up. A typical grey spring day. It peaked in 1860, but population began falling as railroads replaced the canal as the main NYC shipping route. (Those are horses.)

120

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 06/04/2026

How old is the first-time homebuyer? Turns out, the best answer is probably, "Mid-/late 30s" and "a bit older than in 2010."

041

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 01/04/2026

$0.28 → $0.07 as Supreme Court hears arguments for/against birthright citizenship ban

000

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 31/03/2026

Other than a flurry of articles recently, what's going on here? Supreme Court session hasn't even started yet. Is it a liquidity thing? Volume is $232K.

130

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 25/03/2026

Weird proof of my own personal AI productivity boom, booking travel feels way more annoying now. Thinking about what I can do with an AI-assisted hour today vs. 1 hour planning routes, booking flights/hotels/etc. for a multi-city trip. The difference is so much wider now than 3-4 mos ago.

010

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 05/03/2026

Book-ins to ICE facilities, a precursor to deportation, have been roughly matching 2019 rates.

010

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 05/03/2026

Before today, DHS secretary‑nominee Mullin has been publicly in favor of current immigration enforcement levels and tactics. Not expecting any big U-turn on enforcement action, targeting, deportation levels, etc.

000

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 25/02/2026

In 1950s-60s, UK brides and grooms married younger than any point since at least 1550. Why? A big reason is the the post-WW2 job market...

100

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 19/02/2026

@bencarlson007.bsky.social's bookshelf game, impressive. Really need to get step up. Oh and conversation was great too. "When do Baby Boomers' homes hit the market?" is one of the most-asked questions clients/others ask. We go into that and a bunch more. www.youtube.com/watch?v=utrU...

041

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 18/02/2026

Just talked about this on a podcast. Baby boomers (and older) are 23% of the population but 43% of homeowners. They're also living longer, more active, and wealthier than their parents - and most never want to move.

120

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 11/02/2026

Slowly but surely, work-from-home creeps lower. Low white-collar hiring probably brings this national figure lower over time, with very different paths regionally.

011

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 10/02/2026

What @edzarenski.bsky.social describes is the *exact* result predicted by Howard, Wang, and Zhang (2025)... Immigration enforcement causes "significant loss of undocumented workers in construction" AND "net job losses for US-born workers." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

084

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 10/02/2026

My entire experience with Copilot, so far

2100

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 07/02/2026

US deaths held steady at 3.1 million in 2025, in line with the path from before 2020. We'll see this inch up every year from now on.

010

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 02/02/2026

After declining for 13 years, US births have held steady since 2021. Why? Moms 30 and up are having more kids than ever, offsetting the long-term decline for moms under 30.

Bar chart titled "Annual US Births" spanning 1970 to 2025. The chart shows births climbing from 2 million in 1970 to a peak of 4.3 million around 2007, followed by a steady decline to 3.62 million in 2025, matching birth rates from four decades prior.

082

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 02/02/2026

US births held steady at 3.62 million in 2025, near a 40+ year low.

0113

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 23/01/2026

Been saying 'Silver Tsunami' will more be a 'slow trickle'

010

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 23/01/2026

US homes transferred by inheritance jumped 26% to 342K last year (source: Cotality) Not what you'd expect in a silver tsunami.

020

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 23/01/2026

1.2 million excess deaths during pandemic did not kneecap housing demand. In fact, housing demand boomed. In 2020–2022, the number of homes lived in as primary residence grew at the fastest pace since probably the 1970s.

020

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 22/01/2026

We (JBREC) have survey evidence showing there is in fact impact on occupancy and leasing. Different impacts by region, but it's definitely showing up.

3204

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 16/01/2026

Pretty good news, huh: Millennial parents spend more time with kids previous generations. Especially moms, but dads too. ...AND the average family has fewer kids. So that means the average kid is getting more mom-and-dad-time than ever before.

140

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 14/01/2026

Ah, turns out AP is reporting the ban does not apply to non-immigrant (e.g., tourism) visas. Bloomberg's article didn't distinguish.

111

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 13/01/2026

Brookings and CBO agree US immigration slowed dramatically in 2025. Neither expects a significant rebound in 2026.

072

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 13/01/2026

Pulse check on immigration enforcement. Source: YouGov Survey, ICE Policies and Practices January 9 - 11, 2026 - 1,129 U.S. adult citizens

021

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 11/01/2026

I think this is important. Success anchoring to increasingly fat tailed distributions. Reaching top 1% income is higher climb than ever. At the same time, the world is flatter than ever (the poorest 1% can follow the ramblings of the world's richest 24/7, and vice versa).

050

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 10/01/2026

An under-appreciated "demographic cliff" of the next 20 years: Social Security Administration is extremely optimistic on both net immigration and birth rates, leading to unrealistic population assumptions. When (or if) they right-size their views, future social security benefits could be at risk.

121

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 12/12/2025

Not a lot of labor switching between resi and data center construction.

030

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 10/12/2025

Fascinating to see seasonality and multi-year cycles in the share of monthly births to first-time moms. Seasonality: typically peaks in Nov-Jan, bottoms in Jun Multi-year trends: rose through 2009, fell 2010-2019, rising again 2020-2025

030

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 18/11/2025

Headline on our Pro Remodeling survey last month was "Pro remodeling hits new cycle low"

172

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 27/10/2025

2025 feels early 2000s-ish. Solid GDP and a terrible job market. Americans are just as concerned about losing their jobs as in 2008-2009, which is pretty wild if true. Just one reason for homes sales aren't rising with lower mortgage rates.

032

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 21/10/2025

Lines up with research we sent to clients last week calling out Walmart HQ's metro as 1 of ~15 local housing markets most exposed to H-1B changes, based on analysis of loan-level data by citizenship status.

070

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 14/10/2025

2 recent immigration policy shifts affecting housing: 1) FHA banned lending to H-1B visa holders & other immigrants without permanent residency. 2) New $100,000 fee for companies applying to bring new H-1B workers into the US. Vastly different impacts market by market… jbrec.com/insights/imm...

021

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 29/08/2025

Waller: likely that employment "actually shrank" in May, June, and July

121

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 28/08/2025

Waller: Payroll jobs likely declined May-July "After accounting for the revisions that will be coming at some point... the data are likely to indicate that employment actually shrank—was negative—over those three months [May, June, and July]." www.youtube.com/live/EoHz0l3...

youtube.com

Economic Club of Miami hosts Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller

YouTube video by The Economic Club of Miami

011

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 26/08/2025

Worth watching: Incremental +300K international students per year would be a +40% increase over current student visa levels. Potentially a big deal for major city apartment demand, and a bailout of US universities at risk from a declining population of US high school seniors.

021

Eric Finnigan @ericfinnigan.jbrec.com · 15/08/2025

Our internal data shows households moving between metro areas spiked in 2021 and has fallen by 29% since. Long-distance moves are rare in 2025.

140

Reposted by Eric Finnigan

Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 13/08/2025

To add to this: The foreign-born sample in CPS is -12% since last August. Nativity is not part of population controls, so assuming the foreign-born population didn't drop 12%, weighted results will show declining numbers of immigrants. So looks like fewer immigrant workers. Don't use CPS for this.

262