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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم

@emile-hokayem.bsky.social
1.1K followers 84 following 35 posts

Geopolitics and Middle East at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Just because you have an opinion does not mean you should express it.

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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Let the spin begin. Both Iran and the US will claim victory while Israel sulks and waits for the whole thing to unravel (because nothing is really agreed). A massively disruptive and wholly inconclusive war in which Iran nevertheless emerges relatively better than its foes in the short-term.
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Reposted by Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
Grand Continent @grandcontinent.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
La doctrine de la survie stratégique selon Téhéran : État des forces iraniennes et perspectives avec l’expert @emile-hokayem.bsky.social À lire absolument
legrandcontinent.eu
La doctrine de la survie stratégique: les plans de l'Iran à Ormuz
L’Iran ne gagne pas — mais il sait désormais comment ne pas perdre. Trump a donné à la République islamique un but de guerre : la survie du régime. Et à Ormuz, Téhéran a trouvé un levier pour mettre ...
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Reposted by Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 21/03/2026
Israel has crushed Unrwa in Gaza – and the rest of the world has done nothing | Philippe Lazzarini
theguardian.com
Israel has crushed Unrwa in Gaza – and the rest of the world has done nothing | Philippe Lazzarini
I bow out of my role for the organisation at a perilous time for the international law. There are consequences not just for Palestinians, but the wider Middle East, says Unrwa commissioner-general Philippe Lazzarini
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Kori Schake 🎃 @kschake.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Aid to Ukraine from 2022-2026 was a rounding error. We used more in the first two weeks of the Iran war than we provided in the 4 years of aid to Ukraine.
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Rania Abouzeid @raniaab.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Widespread panic in #Beirut after Israel issues unprecedented evacuation order for southern suburbs. Traffic is choked, people rushing to leave & head north. Drones in the air. WhatsApp messages urging ppl to crack windows open to avoid shattering from expected blasts #lebanon
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
I know it is hard to believe, but people stuck in a conflict can be angry at the various sides at the same time and resist any alignment. So you can be Lebanese, hate Hezbollah and have zero illusions about Israel.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Very grateful to have appeared on @gideonrachman.bsky.social 's @financialtimes.com podcast to discuss the war between US/Israel and Iran and its massive consequences. 30+ mins of sober discussion and analysis to help listeners think through a complex matter. www.ft.com/content/7318...
ft.com
Iran war risks turning into a battle of endurance
Tehran tactics seek to draw in Gulf states and others
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
This is the lead sentence of my Financial Times piece today on the US-Israeli campaign against Iran: "And so begins the latest brazen and wholly predictable gamble from America and Israel to shape the Middle East to their liking." The rest at this link: www.ft.com/content/1cd2...
ft.com
Trump and Netanyahu go for Iran’s jugular
Washington is ill-equipped to handle the regional conflagration it has unleashed
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Regardless of everything else, Nasrallah and Khamenei have proven to be strategically foolish, blind, self-confident, bombastic and worse. They have embarked their societies on a chimeric journey and the cost is impossibly terrible.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
My piece on the current war.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
By focusing so much on the horrid nature of the Iranian regime, some would like the rest of us to ignore, accept or embrace the horrors Israel has committed in Gaza since 2023. Iranians should certainly prioritize the nature of the regime but everyone else in the region will adopt a broad lens.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
This is the lead sentence of my Financial Times piece today on the US-Israeli campaign against Iran: "And so begins the latest brazen and wholly predictable gamble from America and Israel to shape the Middle East to their liking." The rest at this link: www.ft.com/content/1cd2...
ft.com
Trump and Netanyahu go for Iran’s jugular
Washington is ill-equipped to handle the regional conflagration it has unleashed
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
In the past two years, I attended numerous government and think tank meetings where it was fashionable to question and debate the casualty figures in Gaza as a way to distract from the human tragedy, Israel's brutal conduct of the war and Israel's ultimate aim (ethnic cleansing).
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
A year ago, the Assad regime collapsed, giving Syria and Syrians a much-needed chance at a better future. I was in Damascus a few months ago and wrote this piece: www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
Syria’s Unsteady Transition
The fact remains that Syria has empty coffers, a crippled industrial base and few natural resources; its future depends on its large diaspora and on investors from its near abroad.
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The New Yorker @newyorker.com · 06/11/2025
One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc
newyorkermag.visitlink.me
The Shutdown of U.S.A.I.D. Has Already Killed Hundreds of Thousands
The short documentary “Rovina’s Choice” tells the story of what goes when aid goes.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
My take on the Gaza 'plan' in the Financial Times: "However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.” on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
on.ft.com
Trump’s deal ended the war — but hasn’t yet delivered peace
US pressure led to a breakthrough but it will take Washington’s sustained attention to ensure that a fragile ceasefire holds
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
My take on the Gaza 'plan' in the Financial Times: "However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.” on.ft.com/4n3w8jU
on.ft.com
Trump’s deal ended the war — but hasn’t yet delivered peace
US pressure led to a breakthrough but it will take Washington’s sustained attention to ensure that a fragile ceasefire holds
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 14/09/2025
My latest column in the Financial Times: "“Has Israel become the new Iran?” is not the debate the enthusiastic architects of the Abraham Accords envisioned playing out across the Gulf region following Tuesday’s Israeli attack in Qatar."
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 20/08/2025
Read Hasan Alhasan and @emile-hokayem.bsky.social on how the Arab Gulf states can “break the cycle of conflict and instability that plagues the Middle East”:
fam.ag
The Middle East’s New Intermediaries
Can the Gulf states broker peace between America, Iran, and Israel?
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 04/08/2025
“The Arab Gulf states should step in to mediate a lasting deal between Iran and the United States, however slim the chances of success,” argue Hasan Alhasan and @emile-hokayem.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
The Middle East’s New Intermediaries
Can the Gulf states broker peace between America, Iran, and Israel?
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Reposted by Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi @ajaltamimi.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
I have done a general, open access piece on the common misconceptions about the fighting in al-Suwayda'. Too many crude, inaccurate talking points are being circulated among analysts and observers and contributing to the tensions. This needs to stop now www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/misconcept...
aymennaltamimi.com
Misconceptions on the Fighting in al-Suwayda'
Amid the ongoing fighting between pro-Syrian government tribal militias and local Druze factions in the primarily Druze province of al-Suwayda’ in southern Syria, it has become clear to me that miscon...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
Good @emile-hokayem.bsky.social piece on why U.S. and Israeli post-war triumphalism isn’t shared by Iran’s Gulf Arab rivals, who fear that they’re heading into an unstable, dangerous, and long-lasting crisis. @financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
My take on the implications of the US-Israel strikes on Iran for the Gulf states in today’s Financial Times: “The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.” on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
on.ft.com
The Iran threat will haunt the Gulf for years
As Israel and Washington celebrate, there is a sense of dread and uncertainty throughout the region
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
My take on the implications of the US-Israel strikes on Iran for the Gulf states in today’s Financial Times: “The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.” on.ft.com/3I1yyAG
on.ft.com
The Iran threat will haunt the Gulf for years
As Israel and Washington celebrate, there is a sense of dread and uncertainty throughout the region
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Reposted by Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم
Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
On current trends, Israeli and Iranian government credibility appear to be converging at a point well below zero. Netanyahu speech: www.gov.il/en/pages/spo... via @shashj.bsky.social
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
2003 US-UK invasion of Iraq was an absolute tragedy. It also gave us a test to evaluate analysis and advocacy. So if you are an official who sold that war, a public intellectual who advocated it, a senior commander who assured us victory is around the corner, please consider sitting this one out.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
My piece in the Financial Times about Israel’s attack on Iran.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
This is the easiest, least meaningful, most performative move Western countries could have taken to pressure Israel. For all the talk about a ‘shift’ in recent weeks, it is increasingly obvious that nothing substantial will happen. The western debacle continues. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
UK places sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers for inciting West Bank violence
Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich face travel bans and asset freezes as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway also impose measures
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
At least he jumped before this atrocious scheme began. Can’t say as much of the geniuses behind the US pier debacle last year.
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London Review of Books @lrb.co.uk · 18/05/2025
‘Adults are going hungrier to keep children better fed. The most vulnerable – infants, pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers and others needing special diets – are already starving.’ Alex de Waal on famine in Gaza, from the blog: www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/ma...
lrb.co.uk
Alex de Waal | Starvation in Gaza
Twice already during this war, the people of Gaza have pulled back from the brink of categorical famine – both times...
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Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
There will be a lot of euphemisms about "voluntary migration" and "humanitarian zones" and whatnot, but this is ultimately a plan for ethnic cleansing www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...
axios.com
Israel plans to occupy and flatten all of Gaza if no deal by Trump's trip
Trump has effectively given Netanyahu a green light to do as he sees fit, Israeli officials say.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
If Hamas doesn’t capitulate by May 15, Israel will seize Gaza permanently, destroy all still-standing buildings, and force all civilians into a small area on the border, to be held captive in perpetuity unless they leave Palestine. @barakravid.bsky.social @axios.com www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...
axios.com
Israel plans to occupy and flatten all of Gaza if no deal by Trump's trip
Trump has effectively given Netanyahu a green light to do as he sees fit, Israeli officials say.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Trump heads to the Gulf states on May 13. There will be pomp and theatrics as in 2017 but the Gulf states face a very different set of choices and challenges. I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy! www.ft.com/content/a813...
ft.com
Diplomatic dilemmas as Gulf states prepare to greet Trump
The region has changed since his first term, but the US president will find newly confident nations there
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Trump heads to the Gulf states on May 13. There will be pomp and theatrics as in 2017 but the Gulf states face a very different set of choices and challenges. I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy! www.ft.com/content/a813...
ft.com
Diplomatic dilemmas as Gulf states prepare to greet Trump
The region has changed since his first term, but the US president will find newly confident nations there
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
Very dark outlook for post-Assad Syria. Fragile, fragmented militia governance already dragged down by a failing economy, now made so much worse by Trump’s double sucker punches: end of USAID removes 40% of aid, and this back-and-forth sanctions tango deters desperately needed foreign investment.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
I have a new report out with @carnegieendowment.org on the current state of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 project, highlighting areas of achievement but with an argument for greater bottom-up accountability to curb its excesses (spending and otherwise). carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
Vision 2030 in the Home Stretch: Clear Achievements yet Limited Accountability
Vision 2030 has made undeniable progress in building a Saudi economy that can “live without oil”—but with five years to go, the program is in danger of enriching elites while overlooking the needs of ...
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Congratulations to my IISS colleagues for the launch of Military Balance 2025 — all you need to know about global defence trends
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Reading about these tech geniuses descending on US government agencies to 'fix' them takes me back 2 decades to the run-up to the Iraq war.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Any analyst, any media outlet, any politician who uses sanitized words such as ‘transfer’ or ‘relocation’ to describe what is ethnic cleansing is complicit in this egregious policy.
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 16/01/2025
🧵 THREAD: Our reporter spent the past year reporting inside the State Department, trying to answer the central question of Biden’s foreign policy: How did the U.S. let Israel get away with widespread horrors in Gaza?
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Me on Syria in the New Yorker. Read if interested!
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Want to know why the Assad regime crumbled so fast? I spoke to Isaac Chotiner of the New Yorker. www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
newyorker.com
How Assad’s Regime Crumbled
Iran’s weakness, a faltering economy, and new political fissures led to the stunning end of a dynasty.
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Elham Fakhro @elhamfakhro.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
My book on the Abraham Accords is out! I explore the covert ties between Israel and several Gulf States in the lead up to the Accords, how and why these agreements were negotiated, and what they mean for the region including in the wake of Gaza. Grateful to my editors @columbiaup.bsky.social
Book cover "The Abraham Accords: the Gulf States, Israel, and the Limits of Normalization." It features the US, UAE, Israeli, and Bahraini flags.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
IT IS OUT!!! @rmomtaz.bsky.social and I spent 2 years leading this study of Eastern Mediterranean dynamics. We are very proud to present this IISS Strategic Dossier which is in-depth survey of this highly dynamic and volatile region. www.iiss.org/publications...
iiss.org
Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Geopolitical, Security and Energy Dynamics
The IISS Strategic Dossier Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean surveys the geopolitical landscape, defence dynamics and energy prospects of the region spanning Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Libya, Syria and Turkiye.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
IT IS OUT!!! @rmomtaz.bsky.social and I spent 2 years leading this study of Eastern Mediterranean dynamics. We are very proud to present this IISS Strategic Dossier which is in-depth survey of this highly dynamic and volatile region. www.iiss.org/publications...
iiss.org
Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Geopolitical, Security and Energy Dynamics
The IISS Strategic Dossier Turbulence in the Eastern Mediterranean surveys the geopolitical landscape, defence dynamics and energy prospects of the region spanning Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Libya, Syria and Turkiye.
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Jerome Drevon @jeromed.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Some self-adverstisement, if you want to know how the Syrian opposition institutionalised its military forces and the role of foreign actors based on interviews with HTS and Ahrar leaders: academic.oup.com/book/57951/c... for the full book: fdslive.oup.com/www.oup.com/...
academic.oup.com
Uniting the Armed Opposition
Abstract. Chapter 4 delves into the various efforts to unite and institutionalise the armed opposition (internally as well as externally, with other states
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
I hope that when Biden announces the ceasefire in Israel-Lebanon, he does so without any misplaced triumphalism, celebration of US diplomacy, smirk or laugh. Some decency and sobriety are in order. This has not been a good year for US diplomacy or for the Middle East.
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Intent on leaving the White House on the worst possible note, the Biden administration just vetoed yet another UNSC resolution on Gaza. apnews.com/article/un-g...
apnews.com
US vetoes UN resolution demanding a cease-fire in Gaza because there's no link to a hostage release
The United States has vetoed a U.N. resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in the war in Gaza because it is not linked to an immediate release of hostages taken captive by Hamas in Israel in Oct...
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
My comment in the @financialtimes.com today looks at how Syria's Assad is navigating a violent and complex landscape: "Assad has always regarded the offering of concessions as a mark of weakness. Better to remain steadfast and wait for the environment to change." www.ft.com/content/049a...
ft.com
Assad is sitting tight as Syria burns
The president sees an opportunity in the great regional rebalancing currently under way
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Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile-hokayem.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
My comment in the @financialtimes.com today looks at how Syria's Assad is navigating a violent and complex landscape: "Assad has always regarded the offering of concessions as a mark of weakness. Better to remain steadfast and wait for the environment to change." www.ft.com/content/049a...
ft.com
Assad is sitting tight as Syria burns
The president sees an opportunity in the great regional rebalancing currently under way
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