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elonmusgraves.bsky.social

@elonmusgraves.bsky.social
519 followers 172 following 221 posts

still 6'4

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Reposted by @elonmusgraves.bsky.social
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 20/11/2025
Looks like I'll have to add two grand to my pre-election poll crowdfunder because I certainly won't be working with this rag again. Absolutely disgraceful, awarding a hate campaign that is out to destroy my community and kill my best friend like this. Shame on you.
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 31/08/2025
my bad
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Bill McKay @mckay4senate.bsky.social · 23/08/2025
Imaginal Disk album movie… we will be seated
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
THEY FINALLY ADDED IT
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/07/2025
New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 12-18 Jun (changes vs 25-31 Jan 24(!)): List: SNP ~ 26% (-7) Lab ~ 22% (-9) RUK ~ 16% (+14) Grn ~ 15% (+4) Con ~ 10% (-3) LD ~ 8% (+1) Alba ~ 2% (+1) Const: SNP ~ 34% (-5) Lab ~ 23% (-7) RUK ~ 14% (+13) Con ~ 10% (-4) Grn ~ 9% (+3) LD ~ 9% (+2) Alba ~ 1% (nc)
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Allan Faulds @afaulds.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Whatever else is the case, I am afraid I do think it's gutting that Labour, a party of evil transphobic bastards, won a by-election that followed the death of a staunch trans ally. I myself am aware this isn't a salient issue, just personally, what an insult to Christina's memory.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/06/2025
Labour will certainly be pleased to win this one, but that's a pretty close result; if you run these as uniform swings versus 2021, it only secures a total of 8 Labour constituency MSPs versus 51 for the SNP. As I've said before, this was must-win for Labour, but margin matters, and it's not huge!
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
definitely a real thing but not nearly enough of them to power this swing. there's a lot of three way churn with nat>lab and lab>ref, and then most of all differential turnout
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 05/06/2025
Comment, not a prediction: turnout of 44.2% is relatively high for a by-election, and you'd *typically* expect that to be a positive sign for the SNP. They do best amongst younger and less affluent voters, who are least likely to turn out, so higher turnout generally means more of their voters.
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Euan @euan.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
it is funny how John Swinney returned as SNP leader to gracefully take the fall for them losing power in 2026, and instead he’s going to have to just keep being First Minister
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
@afaulds.bsky.social do you know if hamilton is getting counted tonight or tomorrow?
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 01/06/2025
do they do the "if you're in line, stay in line" thing in poland
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 01/06/2025
I'm sorry but this is such a fake problem. Blank Street had long lines for its first week of opening but now it has the same crowd as all the other places. That specific area around Hillhead station has already been quite chain-dominated for a while, the bottom third of Byres Rd is more mom-and-pop.
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
feel like this is something you could make work in a chachaanteng (hong kong's iconic canto-western diners)
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Reposted by @elonmusgraves.bsky.social
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 31/05/2025
Polling continuing to emphasise the points I made in my "one year to go" piece a few weeks ago: the SNP are not experiencing some "how John Swinney got his groove back" surge in support, they are simply benefitting from Labour support collapsing as well ballotbox.scot/sp26-one-yea...
If you said last July that John Swinney would seem the clear favourite for First Minister in 2026, people would have looked at you as if you had two heads. They’d have been right to. Fresh from their first defeat in almost 15 years and the self-destruction of their previous First Minister’s career, Swinney was clearly in place to stabilise the party rather than salvage long-term government.

Since then, the party’s fortunes have kind of reversed. Kind of, because the effect on their support has been exactly as intended with Swinney: it has stabilised, not recovered. I have gotten a little bit of a sense from how some folk in the SNP have been acting that they think they are effectively back in the driving seat and set for an easy victory. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The SNP’s share of the vote has only increased relatively marginally from their recent lows. They have made up about 1-2% on the list, and 3-4% on the constituency. That still amounts to a loss of about a quarter of their support on both votes versus 2021. Restored electoral dominance this is not. Yet their seat tally on my model is up from a low of 39 to 59 – from haemorrhaging MSPs to a minor graze. That’s an admittedly remarkable rebound on the face of it.

Rather than regaining vast amounts of trust and support though, they are benefitting from a collapse in the Labour vote (down 11% and 14%), the splintering of support amongst their opponents, and the fact Holyrood is only partly rather than fully proportional. That allows them to keep a lead in so many constituencies they blow proportionality out of the water.
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 31/05/2025
Monthly: May
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
question for glasgoomfs: I've got a seated ticket for a show at the hydro. doors open at 6.30 but the main act doesn't start until after 9. how late can I get away with entering?
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
brigitte didn't fuck his shit up enough
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
anybody seeing tyler in glasgow tonight?
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
anybody do Last FM Friday on here?
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Speak for yourself.
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
setting up work laptop rn and I was about to crash out spectacularly because for a moment I thought it wasn't gonna let me switch from edge to chrome. all sorted now though
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
genuinely pisses me off so much how our closest white commonwealth ally is australia and not canada
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
the reform party playing a historically progressive role in scottish politics by sweeping away our peculiar domestic forms of bigotry with more normal ones suited to the present day
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
okay the "rude" flag is genuinely hilarious lol
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
need this so bad holy shit
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
> $119 what the hell is going on in canada dawg
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Speak for yourself.
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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
congratulations. you invented a party which can win exactly one election by, in the face of crises, offering a combination of exactly what your opponents are doing, some mumbling and handwringing about how they want it in a rude way, and policy which would be trivial for the mayor of a small town.
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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
the thing about a demand that literally everyone restrict their analysis to what would be electorally beneficial to the democrats is that this is how you get starmerism, which is doomed to collapse into a state worse than trumpism the moment that the UK has another election
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
fuck me for thinking people on here would be a little more intellectually curious and engaged with world affairs than the other site, damn
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
why is nobody talking about india/pakistan on here
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
yupppp
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Tracy Lord of the Nazgûl @seeemilyplay.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
if you like jrr tolkien, may i suggest
Friend: Beyond Journey’s End
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Bill @bill-of-lefts.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
October 7 was not the proximate cause of voters electing Trump but it was the ultimate cause of the elite realignment that is letting Trump run roughshod over our institutions right now
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
I remember in an old exchange he argued that the main reason for the israeli deep state being hostile to netanyahu/likud was that they're all ashkenazi. didn't think much of it at the time
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Reposted by @elonmusgraves.bsky.social
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/03/2025
I'm pretty sure (I haven't run back through all results, I have a dug to talk for a sunny walk) this is the first by-election in quite some time where the SNP's two candidate preferred share is higher than in 2022, not merely slumping less badly than Labour's.
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
god I really wish post notifications were a thing I keep having to remind myself to check @ballotbox.scot for poll/election results
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
anybody here fw the new carti?
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
@mckay4senate.bsky.social is this something
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
I'm just a widdle birfday boy why am I in it
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Scots are the most persecuted people on earth
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Bill McKay @mckay4senate.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Trump is so cool because he understands that 🇵🇸 🇺🇦 is the morally consistent position and then takes the opposite of it.
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
southsiders! I am heading your way. what are your favourite cafes around queens park/strathbungo?
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Bill McKay @mckay4senate.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
It’s so cool that the UK is approximating the Biden v DeSantis v RFK Jr version of 2024 we deserved but didn’t get.
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
yurrrrp
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
media.tenor.com
a close up of a man 's face with a beard and the words `` facts '' written on it .
ALT: a close up of a man 's face with a beard and the words `` facts '' written on it .
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elonmusgraves.bsky.social @elonmusgraves.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
meeting my parents for dinner in edinburgh tomorrow. a bit sick of always going to the same places and would like to try something new. who's got suggestions
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