Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/08/2026my annoyance of bayesian modeling is mainly due to selection bias - I approach it when there's no other viable alternative, so i always encounter the painstaking experience of needing to iterate and refine with every fit taking upwards of 30 minutes 061
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Penguin colonies poop so much that you analyze their diet from space science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...science.nasa.govPink Penguin Guano Provides Diet Clues - NASA ScienceThe color of Adélie penguin droppings reveals what the birds are eating, offering scientists a way to track how sea ice conditions influence their diet. 133
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 27/05/2026encountered a real-life example of this xkcd in the form of why no one can use the safer temporary ssh certificates in any vscode derivatives. Microsoft locked their Remote extension, leaving others to rely on ssh2, whose maintainer ignores SSH certificate support for almost a full decade now 🤷♂️ 120
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 31/03/2026we already have estimands and predictimands, so I guess "descriptimands" is just citations on the floor at this point 010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 23/03/2026one inescapable truth of modern science conduct is that if you're a researcher then you're a software engineer. but if you make the most out of it, it can make you a better researcher. just had to get some stuff out of the system and into yours 🫶 ehud.co/blog/2026/01...ehud.coResearch ❤️ Software Development | Ehud KaravaniIn a world where science becomes inseparable from coding, code becomes king. 0182
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 07/03/2026always use a Mondrian theme in your ggplots @statsepi.bsky.social 081
Reposted by Ehud KaravaniNadieh Bremer @nadiehbremer.com · 12/02/2026📣 NEW! I’ve just released the BIGGEST and perhaps most creative project I’ve ever worked on! “Searching for Birds” searchingforbirds.visualcinnamon.com 🐤 A project, an article, an exploration that dives into the data that connects humans with birds, by looking at how we search for birds. 26503181
Reposted by Ehud KaravaniDr. Headbutt 🌈🧪 @nicoleackermans.com · 28/01/2026If you haven't watched the video abstract about Veronika the tool-using cow, you really should, especially the message from her owner at the end! It cleanses the timeline a bit. 🧪 www.cell.com/current-biol...cell.comFlexible use of a multi-purpose tool by a cowOsuna-Mascaró and Auersperg report flexible, multipurpose tool use in a cow, expanding the known range of mammalian tool users and underscoring overlooked cognitive capacities in livestock. 05414
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 30/12/20252/3 of the breakthroughs are by Terry Tao's former students. Not to take any credit from their successes, but his contribution to our collective knowledge is truly immeasurable. 020
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 19/12/2025I sometime wonder how bad is the replication crisis in top AI conferences. I bet >50% of results cannot be reproduced and >80% will not withstand the slightest change in input data. People give psychologists the shit about their shitty research, but at least they cared enough to actually check. 1152
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 10/12/2025Every year I fulfill the wishes of one editor whose been good this year, and I accept an article to review in the middle of December 🧑🎄🎄😇 000
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 05/12/2025I'm confused. How do we settle this with the common early stopping criteria for futility/efficacy when enough posterior mass is beyond some ROPE thresholds (e.g., futility of Pr[θ<0.1]>0.9 or efficacy of Pr[θ>0]>0.95) a-la www.fharrell.com/post/bayes-s...fharrell.comContinuous Learning from Data: No Multiplicities from Computing and Using Bayesian Posterior Probabilities as Often as Desired – Statistical ThinkingThis article describes the drastically different way that sequential data looks operate in a Bayesian setting compared to a classical frequentist setting. 010
Reposted by Ehud KaravaniZach Weinersmith @zachweinersmith.bsky.social · 18/11/2025Bonus panel here: www.smbc-comics.com/comic/stats-3 #smbc 733050
Reposted by Ehud KaravaniWill Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 08/11/2025Rubin's gonna Rubin, but Robins Rubins harder. 2102
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/11/2025babe, wake up, new sewer manhole cover shape just dropped 010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 16/10/2025Why would you send me an invite to review a manuscript with a 3-day expiration link over the weekend, Taylor & Francis? 000
Reposted by Ehud KaravaniErwan Rivault @erwanrivault.com · 12/09/2025Launch day 🚀 We’ve just released @chartlecc.bsky.social - a daily chart game! Your job is to guess which country is represented by the red line in today's chart. You get 5 tries, no other clues! Play today, come back tomorrow for a different chart with new data and share with your chart friends 📈chartle.ccChartle - A daily chart gameGuess the country in red by analysing today's chart 1212853
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 10/10/2025The Matrix, but the Machines are RNA and the protagonist is a protein realizing his kind has been enslaved to maintain RNAs while being fooled to believe they're the ones who matter most. He then undergoes chemical post-translational modifications to become an RNase, vowing to chew up his oppressors 010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 10/08/2025when we were working on the polygenic scores-based embryo selection paper, i had a classmate (unrelatedly) working on computer vision methods for morphological-based prediction of embryo implantation chances (in cows). 1/2 100
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 30/07/2025ACM going full Open Access is good news to start the morning with. I just wonder where the catch is. 020
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 10/06/2025just got turned down by a potential employer citing my solution to analyze experiments with a *generalized* linear models was not general enough 😑 if you disagree, please consider hiring me. 151
Reposted by Ehud KaravaniCausalscience.org @causalscience.org · 06/06/2025🚨 Call for Papers: Causal Data Science Meeting 2025 📅 November 12–13, 2025 (Virtual) 📥 Submit by Sept 30: submission@causalscience.org 🎙️ Keynote: Stefan Feuerriegel (LMU Munich) 🌐 More Info and registration: causalscience.org #CausalML #AI #DataScience #CDSM2025 #CanIPetThatDAG 1138
Reposted by Ehud KaravaniNoah Greifer @noahgreifer.bsky.social · 04/06/2025Starting to look like I might not be able to work at Harvard anymore due to recent funding cuts. If you know of any open statistical consulting positions that support remote work or are NYC-based, please reach out! 😅 1115296
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 23/04/2025starting on quantum computing, and now I cannot unsee brakets over Bell states everywhere I go. 020
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 15/04/2025My minor design critique is that all Bayesian software seem to have an explicit separation between prior and posterior predictives, instead of just providing a "predictive checks" function, and if it's called before the model saw any data then that's "prior" and if it's after then it's "posterior" 030
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 19/03/2025putting down my youngest in her crib, sleeping, and i can't shake off the thought that's must be the source for why so many adults worldwide commonly dream they are falling. 010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 13/03/2025The problem of fraud in science is its cumulative effect - you could either stand on the shoulders of giants or in the pit they have dug for you 010
Reposted by Ehud KaravaniAriel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025see, this plane got measles and was perfectly fine 16692148
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 18/02/2025What if we use LLMs not to construct a causal graph for us using their "knowledge", but as a companion helping an expert to tease out a DAG through conversation? 000
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 09/02/2025after the "delve" paper about LLMs usage in academic writing, i conjectured a similar phenomena will appear in reference/recommendation letters with "acumen" but didn't have the data to prove it on scale 010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/02/2025now I'm feeling like a sucker for making this absolutely stunning piece of graphical abstract last week 150
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/02/2025Oh man, is banning "marginalize" means we're back at interpreting coefficients? #statsky #stats 182
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 29/01/20253 outputs for every figure: PDF for latex SVG for PowerPoint PNG for passing around to colleagues and get it properly previewed in emails / Slack Thank you matplotlib 110
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 27/01/2025LLMs generating DAGs to overcome blank page syndrome is ~identical to LLMs generating a manuscript draft to overcome it. But my hunch is that providing an expert with a wrong DAG is more efficient than providing them a blank page. That's a universal Cunningham's Law. #CausalInference 020
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 07/01/2025Gave a hands-on casual inference workshop in Python tonight at the DataNights/DataHack causality course and really enjoyed how engaged everyone were. 050
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 06/01/2025oh of course, the 3rd english dialect from the pirates of the C 010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 06/01/2025I didn't know Quarto can do this! But it seems as simple as everything else in quarto: closeread.dev 110
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/01/2025Unfashionably late but my talk from PyData is available on ▶️YouTube 🎬🎥. It has a very bird's-eye view intro to causal inference (with a fresh new motivation I tried for the first time) and a very brief tour of causallib. www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RUk...youtube.comEhud Karavani: Causal inference with Causallib | PyData Tel Aviv 2024YouTube video by PyData 010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 02/01/2025"next week" who was I kidding... anyways, it's here now, and I'm glad I set down and wrote it because I discovered I had to iron out some personal misunderstandings. so without further ado and with even shinier visuals, a post about double cross-fitting for #causalinference ehud.co/blog/2024/03... 000
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 01/01/2025Sander Greenland dropping thoughtful mega-threads on the Datamethods Discourse just reminds me of everything we are missing by letting these micro-blogging platforms control the entire public discourse discourse.datamethods.org/t/confusion-...discourse.datamethods.orgConfusion flows downhill- a plea to methods teachers for unified messagingProposal: Gather the most prominent names in stats and epi in a room together and lock the door from the outside (with meals and bathroom breaks of course), until they can formulate unified messaging ... 010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 06/12/2024The consistency-exchangeability tradeoff. RCTs guarantee unconfoundedness, but the experimental setting itself may divert the hypothetical potential outcome from the actual observed outcome. #causalsky 110
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 19/11/2024One can say a lot about algorithmic feeds, but, in the absence of it, it is evident it at least somewhat alleviated the problem of having half of your follows at the opposite time zone 000
Reposted by Ehud KaravaniDr Neil Stone @drneilstone.bsky.social · 16/11/2024I'm going to call peope who use this site Blueys 1416920
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 13/11/2024Winter season of the causal inference journal club is upon us again. #causalinference 110
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/11/2024Introducing causal inference at PyData ❤️ 🐍 astonished and delighted from the large turnout. stay calm and keep preaching 120