Sign in

Ehud Karavani

@ehudk.bsky.social
287 followers 236 following 540 posts

Research Staff Member at IBM Research. Causal Inference 🔴→🟠←🟡. Machine Learning 🤖🎓. Data Communication 📈. Healthcare ⚕️. Creator of 𝙲𝚊𝚞𝚜𝚊𝚕𝚕𝚒𝚋: github.com/IBM/causallib Website: ehud.co

PostsRepliesMedia
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
my annoyance of bayesian modeling is mainly due to selection bias - I approach it when there's no other viable alternative, so i always encounter the painstaking experience of needing to iterate and refine with every fit taking upwards of 30 minutes
061
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Penguin colonies poop so much that you analyze their diet from space science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...
science.nasa.gov
Pink Penguin Guano Provides Diet Clues - NASA Science
The color of Adélie penguin droppings reveals what the birds are eating, offering scientists a way to track how sea ice conditions influence their diet.
133
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
encountered a real-life example of this xkcd in the form of why no one can use the safer temporary ssh certificates in any vscode derivatives. Microsoft locked their Remote extension, leaving others to rely on ssh2, whose maintainer ignores SSH certificate support for almost a full decade now 🤷‍♂️
120
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
we already have estimands and predictimands, so I guess "descriptimands" is just citations on the floor at this point
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
the estimands for MBA curriculum looks lit 🔥
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
one inescapable truth of modern science conduct is that if you're a researcher then you're a software engineer. but if you make the most out of it, it can make you a better researcher. just had to get some stuff out of the system and into yours 🫶 ehud.co/blog/2026/01...
ehud.co
Research ❤️ Software Development | Ehud Karavani
In a world where science becomes inseparable from coding, code becomes king.
0182
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
bayesian pooling >> bayesian updating
020
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
always use a Mondrian theme in your ggplots @statsepi.bsky.social
081
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Nadieh Bremer @nadiehbremer.com · 12/02/2026
📣 NEW! I’ve just released the BIGGEST and perhaps most creative project I’ve ever worked on! “Searching for Birds” searchingforbirds.visualcinnamon.com 🐤 A project, an article, an exploration that dives into the data that connects humans with birds, by looking at how we search for birds.
26503181
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Dr. Headbutt 🌈🧪 @nicoleackermans.com · 28/01/2026
If you haven't watched the video abstract about Veronika the tool-using cow, you really should, especially the message from her owner at the end! It cleanses the timeline a bit. 🧪 www.cell.com/current-biol...
cell.com
Flexible use of a multi-purpose tool by a cow
Osuna-Mascaró and Auersperg report flexible, multipurpose tool use in a cow, expanding the known range of mammalian tool users and underscoring overlooked cognitive capacities in livestock.
05414
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
happy b-day wikipedia wikipedia25.org/en
000
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
2/3 of the breakthroughs are by Terry Tao's former students. Not to take any credit from their successes, but his contribution to our collective knowledge is truly immeasurable.
020
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
I sometime wonder how bad is the replication crisis in top AI conferences. I bet >50% of results cannot be reproduced and >80% will not withstand the slightest change in input data. People give psychologists the shit about their shitty research, but at least they cared enough to actually check.
1152
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Every year I fulfill the wishes of one editor whose been good this year, and I accept an article to review in the middle of December 🧑‍🎄🎄😇
000
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
I'm confused. How do we settle this with the common early stopping criteria for futility/efficacy when enough posterior mass is beyond some ROPE thresholds (e.g., futility of Pr[θ<0.1]>0.9 or efficacy of Pr[θ>0]>0.95) a-la www.fharrell.com/post/bayes-s...
fharrell.com
Continuous Learning from Data: No Multiplicities from Computing and Using Bayesian Posterior Probabilities as Often as Desired – Statistical Thinking
This article describes the drastically different way that sequential data looks operate in a Bayesian setting compared to a classical frequentist setting.
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Abelian Group has left the conversation
000
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Zach Weinersmith @zachweinersmith.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Bonus panel here: www.smbc-comics.com/comic/stats-3 #smbc
733050
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 08/11/2025
Rubin's gonna Rubin, but Robins Rubins harder.
seagull says FFRCISTG
2102
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
babe, wake up, new sewer manhole cover shape just dropped
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Why would you send me an invite to review a manuscript with a 3-day expiration link over the weekend, Taylor & Francis?
000
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Erwan Rivault @erwanrivault.com · 12/09/2025
Launch day 🚀 We’ve just released @chartlecc.bsky.social - a daily chart game! Your job is to guess which country is represented by the red line in today's chart. You get 5 tries, no other clues! Play today, come back tomorrow for a different chart with new data and share with your chart friends 📈
chartle.cc
Chartle - A daily chart game
Guess the country in red by analysing today's chart
1212853
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
The Matrix, but the Machines are RNA and the protagonist is a protein realizing his kind has been enslaved to maintain RNAs while being fooled to believe they're the ones who matter most. He then undergoes chemical post-translational modifications to become an RNase, vowing to chew up his oppressors
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
when we were working on the polygenic scores-based embryo selection paper, i had a classmate (unrelatedly) working on computer vision methods for morphological-based prediction of embryo implantation chances (in cows). 1/2
100
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
ACM going full Open Access is good news to start the morning with. I just wonder where the catch is.
020
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
just got turned down by a potential employer citing my solution to analyze experiments with a *generalized* linear models was not general enough 😑 if you disagree, please consider hiring me.
151
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Causalscience.org @causalscience.org · 06/06/2025
🚨 Call for Papers: Causal Data Science Meeting 2025 📅 November 12–13, 2025 (Virtual) 📥 Submit by Sept 30: submission@causalscience.org 🎙️ Keynote: Stefan Feuerriegel (LMU Munich) 🌐 More Info and registration: causalscience.org #CausalML #AI #DataScience #CDSM2025 #CanIPetThatDAG
1138
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Noah Greifer @noahgreifer.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Starting to look like I might not be able to work at Harvard anymore due to recent funding cuts. If you know of any open statistical consulting positions that support remote work or are NYC-based, please reach out! 😅
1115296
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
starting on quantum computing, and now I cannot unsee brakets over Bell states everywhere I go.
Elevator buttons for opening doors, closing them, and an alarm bell.
020
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
My minor design critique is that all Bayesian software seem to have an explicit separation between prior and posterior predictives, instead of just providing a "predictive checks" function, and if it's called before the model saw any data then that's "prior" and if it's after then it's "posterior"
030
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
putting down my youngest in her crib, sleeping, and i can't shake off the thought that's must be the source for why so many adults worldwide commonly dream they are falling.
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
The problem of fraud in science is its cumulative effect - you could either stand on the shoulders of giants or in the pit they have dug for you
010
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
see, this plane got measles and was perfectly fine
16692148
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
What if we use LLMs not to construct a causal graph for us using their "knowledge", but as a companion helping an expert to tease out a DAG through conversation?
000
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
after the "delve" paper about LLMs usage in academic writing, i conjectured a similar phenomena will appear in reference/recommendation letters with "acumen" but didn't have the data to prove it on scale
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
now I'm feeling like a sucker for making this absolutely stunning piece of graphical abstract last week
150
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
Oh man, is banning "marginalize" means we're back at interpreting coefficients? #statsky #stats
182
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
3 outputs for every figure: PDF for latex SVG for PowerPoint PNG for passing around to colleagues and get it properly previewed in emails / Slack Thank you matplotlib
110
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
LLMs generating DAGs to overcome blank page syndrome is ~identical to LLMs generating a manuscript draft to overcome it. But my hunch is that providing an expert with a wrong DAG is more efficient than providing them a blank page. That's a universal Cunningham's Law. #CausalInference
020
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Accepted to AISTATS 😎 see you in Phuket 🏖️
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Gave a hands-on casual inference workshop in Python tonight at the DataNights/DataHack causality course and really enjoyed how engaged everyone were.
050
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
oh of course, the 3rd english dialect from the pirates of the C
A screenshot of a platform allowing to choose a language from either "English (US)", "English (UK)", or "English Debug".
bonus panel: that's the dialect i'm most fluent in
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
I didn't know Quarto can do this! But it seems as simple as everything else in quarto: closeread.dev
Instructions of how to install the Closeread Quarto extension
110
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Unfashionably late but my talk from PyData is available on ▶️YouTube 🎬🎥. It has a very bird's-eye view intro to causal inference (with a fresh new motivation I tried for the first time) and a very brief tour of causallib. www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RUk...
youtube.com
Ehud Karavani: Causal inference with Causallib | PyData Tel Aviv 2024
YouTube video by PyData
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
"next week" who was I kidding... anyways, it's here now, and I'm glad I set down and wrote it because I discovered I had to iron out some personal misunderstandings. so without further ado and with even shinier visuals, a post about double cross-fitting for #causalinference ehud.co/blog/2024/03...
000
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
Sander Greenland dropping thoughtful mega-threads on the Datamethods Discourse just reminds me of everything we are missing by letting these micro-blogging platforms control the entire public discourse discourse.datamethods.org/t/confusion-...
discourse.datamethods.org
Confusion flows downhill- a plea to methods teachers for unified messaging
Proposal: Gather the most prominent names in stats and epi in a room together and lock the door from the outside (with meals and bathroom breaks of course), until they can formulate unified messaging ...
010
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
The consistency-exchangeability tradeoff. RCTs guarantee unconfoundedness, but the experimental setting itself may divert the hypothetical potential outcome from the actual observed outcome. #causalsky
110
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
One can say a lot about algorithmic feeds, but, in the absence of it, it is evident it at least somewhat alleviated the problem of having half of your follows at the opposite time zone
000
Reposted by Ehud Karavani
Dr Neil Stone @drneilstone.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
I'm going to call peope who use this site Blueys
1416920
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Winter season of the causal inference journal club is upon us again. #causalinference
A logo depicting an autumn-colored directed acyclic graph with a steamy cup of tea as a confounder.
110
Ehud Karavani @ehudk.bsky.social · 04/11/2024
Introducing causal inference at PyData ❤️ 🐍 astonished and delighted from the large turnout. stay calm and keep preaching
A laptop at presentation mode on the speaker podium with the audience in the background while people filling the room.
120