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Ed Hawkins

@edhawkins.org
30K followers 662 following 1.1K posts

Climate scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading | IPCC AR6 Lead Author | MBE | Views own | edhawkins.org Warming Stripes: www.ShowYourStripes.info

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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 03/10/2026
If you've used any climate datasets, you've likely benefitted from work of people like Simon. He is an unsung hero, helping build sub-daily to monthly global climate datasets on which we all rely over the past decade.
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Reposted by Ed Hawkins
Georgios Karamanis @karaman.is · 02/10/2026
I made a macOS screensaver that draws the warming stripes one year at a time. It holds all 1,069 locations from showyourstripes.info and nine ways to build each picture. Free download. Stripes by Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org karaman.is/blog/2026/10... #ShowYourStripes #dataviz #macOS
 A MacBook on a table outdoors, with autumn trees behind it. The screen fills with the warming stripes for Sweden, 1850–2025: thin vertical bars in blues and pale shades, turning to deep reds toward the right. A small label in the corner reads "Sweden 1850–2025"
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Reposted by Ed Hawkins
Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 02/10/2026
Europe didnt just experience an exceptionally hot summer in 2026. It experienced a summer where multiple climate extremes reinforced each other. First - temperature records were broken at daily, monthly and seasonal scales across Europe Read more: climate.copernicus.eu/summer-revie...
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/10/2026
Another "need to extend the y-axis" moment... Average temperature in Central England for Jan-Sep for each year since 1772. It is 0.8°C higher in 2026 than any other previous year.
Timeseries of average Jan-Sep temperature for Central England with huge jump up in 2026
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/10/2026
Agree on quality vs quantity. I remember bring able (and having the time) to simply scroll through astro-ph each day to find a very small number of papers to add to the 'should read this' list.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026
How hot & dry was your UK summer? Excellent interactive tool to explore how hot this summer was: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
UK summer 2026: BBC postcode lookup shows how hot and dry it was
Most of us experienced drought and heatwaves - but temperatures and rainfall were not the same everywhere.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026
Everyday weather in a warmer world Imagine the weather patterns that happened in 1903 occurred again in a warmer world - how would that weather be experienced differently? Thomas et al. answer this question, highlighting the thermodynamic response of the climate: esd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
esd.copernicus.org
Everyday weather in a warmer world
Abstract. How would the weather of a year from history be experienced in a warmer world? We reconstruct the weather of 1903 using a reanalysis system that assimilates only surface pressure observation...
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026
Is there a reporting gauge near you? Or is yours part of the network?
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026
Reading Observatory total was 82.5mm for JJA which is close to what the website says.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026
How hot & dry was your UK summer? Excellent interactive tool to explore how hot this summer was: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
UK summer 2026: BBC postcode lookup shows how hot and dry it was
Most of us experienced drought and heatwaves - but temperatures and rainfall were not the same everywhere.
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Reposted by Ed Hawkins
Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New version of the HadCRUT global temperature dataset released @colinmorice.bsky.social HadCRUT5.2 uses HadSST4.2 (with improved adjustments for SST biases during 1933-1961) and CRUTEM5.2 (with updates to stations in China, USA and Canada). Here is the difference from the previous version 5.1
Alt text: Timeseries from 1850 to 2026 of global average temperature from HadCRUT versions 5.1 and 5.2 and their difference.
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Reposted by Ed Hawkins
Covering Climate Now @coveringclimatenow.org · 17/09/2026
📣 CCNow is thrilled to announce the winners of the 2026 CCNow Journalism Awards! Our awards program honors excellent reporting on many critical dimensions of the climate story. Together, their work constitutes the leading edge of climate storytelling. ...🧵↓
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Reposted by Ed Hawkins
Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 14/09/2026
🌍 54 million historical weather observations from 95 countries have been unlocked & made freely available online. 📚 With records dating back to 1837, the project enabled the discovery of an HMS Terror logbook & an international weather station network Read ⤵️ www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/ho...
metoffice.gov.uk
How 54 million historical weather records are being made globally accessible
For more than a century, the Met Office's National Meteorological Archive has held a treasure trove of historical weather data, some of it dating back to 1837. Now, thanks to a major project, tens of ...
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Reposted by Ed Hawkins
Kimberly Nicholas @kimberlynicholas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
22 feet (almost 7m). 2,000 years. One scarf. 99% blue, then the last little bit turns red. That's climate change, knitted, based on @edhawkins.org climate stripes. climateactually.com for the full story. #ClimateAction #Knitting #ClimateActually
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 10/09/2026
August 2026 was the warmest August ever recorded globally and the warmest month on record El Niño is pushing temperatures higher, but these records are occurring in a climate that has already been fundamentally altered by decades of burning fossil fuels heating our planet #Climate 🧪⚒️🌊
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 09/09/2026
How about a 'reverse' attribution? Simple and understandable (though I'm biased): esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/...
esd.copernicus.org
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 09/09/2026
Excellent silver lining. Have ordered!
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 09/09/2026
A vortex is described here but not a huge amount of detail: openai.com/index/navier...
openai.com
On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem
We’re sharing an AI-generated solution to the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, including a writeup and a formal proof in Lean.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 09/09/2026
How much warmer was summer 2026 than 1976 for the UK? Interesting differences between daytime (Tmax) and nighttime (Tmin). 2026 was much warmer than 1976, including in rural areas. (The only exception is daytime temperatures in Scotland.)
Temperatures in 2026 were much warmer than 1976 except for daytime temperatures in Scotland.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/09/2026
Summer in England was record smashing - 2026 was 0.75°C warmer for a seasonal average than the previous record set in... <checks notes>... 2025. The remaining seasonal records from 1976 were all broken by a significant margin this year. (These were the seasonal average Tmax for England and UK)
Timeseries of average summer temperatures in England showing 2026 sticking out above every other year
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/09/2026
2026 really was a fundamentally different summer to 1976 in terms of temperature across the UK and Europe Data: ERA5
Comparing 1976 and 2026 summers in NW Europe
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/09/2026
We haven’t just changed our weather. We’ve changed the climate in which our weather happens. climatelabbook.substack.com/p/learning-f...
climatelabbook.substack.com
Learning from the summers of 1976 and 2026
We have changed the climate in which our weather happens
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 04/09/2026
How does an AI-based weather forecast system cope with the most important weather forecast in history? Paper: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Pressure: reimagining the D‐Day forecast through machine learning
We reproduce the D-Day forecasts, one of the most iconic and famous forecasts ever made and the subject of the new film ‘Pressure’ using a machine-learning model, AIFS-ENS. While James Stagg and the ....
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 04/09/2026
War drama Pressure depicts D‑day’s weather forecast – what we found when we recreated the challenge using modern systems theconversation.com/war-drama-pr...
theconversation.com
War drama Pressure depicts D-day’s weather forecast – what we found when we recreated the challenge using modern systems
Even with today’s forecasting technology, D-Day would not have been an easy call as portrayed in the new movie, Pressure.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 03/09/2026
Yes. @climateflavors.bsky.social showed there was a drop in the relative contribution of scenario uncertainty from CMIP5 to CMIP6 (which has probably continued into CMIP7). esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/...
esd.copernicus.org
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Abstract. Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response uncertainty and emissions scenarios has historically relied on m...
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 03/09/2026
For sure. I guess my (naïve?) assumption was that the additional costs of going net-negative are relatively small compared to the costs of developing CDR to get to net-zero in the first place? Is there no efficiency of scale?
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
Fair enough. I find it hard to imagine a radically different politics emerging. But don’t we need quite a lot of CDR to get to net-zero? How we do that if net-negative is ‘too expensive’?
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
Some critical observations were taken at Blacksod Point lighthouse in Ireland, and this is mentioned in the film. These were (probably) taken by Maureen Sweeney but there are certainly some embellishments of the story in places.
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Reposted by Ed Hawkins
Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 02/09/2026
News we could not be more excited to share: the description paper of our high-resolution dataset is now available for review and comment at ESSD. The record provides global coverage at 0.25° resolution, built from 58,311 weather stations extending back to 1750. Pre-print: tinyurl.com/9dw7jbnf
tinyurl.com
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring
Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr...
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
No significant spin up needed. The AI model is trained on the modern era and applied to the initial conditions from a much earlier date. It is an interesting out-of-sample test.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
We have some experimental reconstructions with more data added (but not yet Torshavn): climatelabbook.substack.com/p/pressure-t...
climatelabbook.substack.com
PRESSURE: the D-Day weather forecast
New reconstruction of the weather of D-Day in June 1944
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
Why do you think humans would not deploy CDR at the necessary scale even if we had the technology?
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
One part of the new paper compares ERA5 with a newly available pressure series from the Faroe Islands, and highlights some discrepencies.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
No - ERA5, which gives the initial conditions for the forecasts, would have used many fewer observations than were actually available in 1944. ERA6 will have a lot more! rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... (and we've rerun 20CRv3 with the newly rescued observations added too)
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
D-Day AIFS weather forecast paper now online! bsky.app/profile/edha...
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
Using AIFS-ENS, the ECMWF machine-learning ensemble forecast system, we recreate the forecasts in the days before 6th June 1944. Even at short range, AIFS-ENS moves the storm too rapidly into the Norwegian Sea giving undue confidence for favourable conditions for the landing in Normandy.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
In June 1944, Captain James Stagg faced the unenviable task of advising whether the weather conditions would allow the D-Day landings to proceed, with the lives of 160,000 troops and the fate of the war in the balance.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
How does an AI forecast model handle the uncertainty of the most important weather forecast in history? It is June 1944: Stagg & Eisenhower have a critical decision to make under pressure Reimagining the D-Day forecast through machine learning: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Pressure: reimagining the D‐Day forecast through machine learning
We reproduce the D-Day forecasts, one of the most iconic and famous forecasts ever made and the subject of the new film ‘Pressure’ using a machine-learning model, AIFS-ENS. While James Stagg and the ...
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Reposted by Ed Hawkins
UN Environment Programme @unep.org · 02/09/2026
Global warming is set to cross 1.5°C, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights, a new UNEP report warns.   Predicted impacts include extreme weather and threats to human health and economies.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026
Yes. I think it’s very welcome if it is the first time.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 01/09/2026
Is this the first specific attribution reference to fossil fuels by the Met Office?
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 01/09/2026
Think it’s time for a new extended temperature colour scale…
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 01/09/2026
Summer 2026 is provisionally the UK’s warmest summer on record with the season’s mean temperature made around 130 times more likely due to human-induced climate change. Here, we delve into the numbers 🧵
Mean temperature for 2026 in the UK. The map shows widely above average temperature, particularly in the south. Rainfall amounts in summer 2026 in the UK compared to average. The maps shows widely dry conditions, though the west of Scotland is slightly wetter than averageSunshine duration in summer 2026 compared to average. The map shows widely sunny conditions in the season, with the south of the country particularly sunny.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 29/08/2026
Visualising a new reconstruction of the weather of D-Day, imagining we had satellite images climatelabbook.substack.com/p/pressure-t...
MSLP mapTotal cloud cover map
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 29/08/2026
Reconstructed Satellite Images Show How Close D-Day Came to Disaster gizmodo.com/reconstructe...
gizmodo.com
Reconstructed Satellite Images Show How Close D-Day Came to Disaster
Built off historic weather records, the new images show the surprisingly small break in the clouds that made the landings possible.
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Reposted by Ed Hawkins
University of Reading @uniofreading.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
A break in the clouds helped make D-Day possible. Ahead of the release of new film Pressure, University of Reading's Prof Ed Hawkins and ECMWF reconstructed the weather conditions of 6 June 1944, showing how a few hours either way could have changed history. Read more: rdg.ac/4hT1fQh
Satellite image showing Earth's cloud cover on June 6, 1944, representing weather conditions during D-Day, created 82 years later. The University of Reading logo is in the bottom right corner.Satellite image showing Earth's cloud cover on June 6, 1944, representing weather conditions during D-Day, created 82 years later. Weather observation imaging of cloud cover with a quote from climate scientist Professor Ed Hawkins which reads:

"Images like this help us understand what troops, sailors and pilots actually faced that day, in a way written reports alone cannot."
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 27/08/2026
Trailer for the Pressure film - out in cinemas on Sept 9th - can highly recommend! m.youtube.com/watch?v=dAOe...
m.youtube.com
PRESSURE | Official International Trailer (2026) 4K
YouTube video by JoBlo Movie Network
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 27/08/2026
Although we can’t easily verify these cloud maps (and they could be made much more realistic), images like this help us understand what troops, sailors and pilots actually faced that day, in a way that written reports alone cannot.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 27/08/2026
A new Hollywood film (Pressure) is to be released shortly to tell the story of the infamous weather forecast that enabled D-Day to be a success. We produced a new reanalysis for D-Day, and processed it to look a bit like a satellite image. climatelabbook.substack.com/p/pressure-t...
Mean sea level pressure map for the morning of D-DayTotal cloud cover map for the morning of D-Day
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/08/2026
Does it change much for a fixed modern population, or time & space varying population?
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