Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 03/10/2026If you've used any climate datasets, you've likely benefitted from work of people like Simon. He is an unsung hero, helping build sub-daily to monthly global climate datasets on which we all rely over the past decade. 0207
Reposted by Ed HawkinsGeorgios Karamanis @karaman.is · 02/10/2026I made a macOS screensaver that draws the warming stripes one year at a time. It holds all 1,069 locations from showyourstripes.info and nine ways to build each picture. Free download. Stripes by Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org karaman.is/blog/2026/10... #ShowYourStripes #dataviz #macOS 25915
Reposted by Ed HawkinsSam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 02/10/2026Europe didnt just experience an exceptionally hot summer in 2026. It experienced a summer where multiple climate extremes reinforced each other. First - temperature records were broken at daily, monthly and seasonal scales across Europe Read more: climate.copernicus.eu/summer-revie... 2220126
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/10/2026Another "need to extend the y-axis" moment... Average temperature in Central England for Jan-Sep for each year since 1772. It is 0.8°C higher in 2026 than any other previous year. 27829
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/10/2026Agree on quality vs quantity. I remember bring able (and having the time) to simply scroll through astro-ph each day to find a very small number of papers to add to the 'should read this' list. 010
Reposted by Ed HawkinsEd Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026How hot & dry was your UK summer? Excellent interactive tool to explore how hot this summer was: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukUK summer 2026: BBC postcode lookup shows how hot and dry it wasMost of us experienced drought and heatwaves - but temperatures and rainfall were not the same everywhere. 34822
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026Everyday weather in a warmer world Imagine the weather patterns that happened in 1903 occurred again in a warmer world - how would that weather be experienced differently? Thomas et al. answer this question, highlighting the thermodynamic response of the climate: esd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...esd.copernicus.orgEveryday weather in a warmer worldAbstract. How would the weather of a year from history be experienced in a warmer world? We reconstruct the weather of 1903 using a reanalysis system that assimilates only surface pressure observation... 0267
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026Is there a reporting gauge near you? Or is yours part of the network? 100
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026Reading Observatory total was 82.5mm for JJA which is close to what the website says. 100
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/09/2026How hot & dry was your UK summer? Excellent interactive tool to explore how hot this summer was: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukUK summer 2026: BBC postcode lookup shows how hot and dry it wasMost of us experienced drought and heatwaves - but temperatures and rainfall were not the same everywhere. 34822
Reposted by Ed HawkinsTim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 23/09/2026New version of the HadCRUT global temperature dataset released @colinmorice.bsky.social HadCRUT5.2 uses HadSST4.2 (with improved adjustments for SST biases during 1933-1961) and CRUTEM5.2 (with updates to stations in China, USA and Canada). Here is the difference from the previous version 5.1 12310
Reposted by Ed HawkinsCovering Climate Now @coveringclimatenow.org · 17/09/2026📣 CCNow is thrilled to announce the winners of the 2026 CCNow Journalism Awards! Our awards program honors excellent reporting on many critical dimensions of the climate story. Together, their work constitutes the leading edge of climate storytelling. ...🧵↓ 28542
Reposted by Ed HawkinsMet Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 14/09/2026🌍 54 million historical weather observations from 95 countries have been unlocked & made freely available online. 📚 With records dating back to 1837, the project enabled the discovery of an HMS Terror logbook & an international weather station network Read ⤵️ www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/ho...metoffice.gov.ukHow 54 million historical weather records are being made globally accessibleFor more than a century, the Met Office's National Meteorological Archive has held a treasure trove of historical weather data, some of it dating back to 1837. Now, thanks to a major project, tens of ... 28542
Reposted by Ed HawkinsKimberly Nicholas @kimberlynicholas.bsky.social · 11/09/202622 feet (almost 7m). 2,000 years. One scarf. 99% blue, then the last little bit turns red. That's climate change, knitted, based on @edhawkins.org climate stripes. climateactually.com for the full story. #ClimateAction #Knitting #ClimateActually 13211
Reposted by Ed HawkinsSam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 10/09/2026August 2026 was the warmest August ever recorded globally and the warmest month on record El Niño is pushing temperatures higher, but these records are occurring in a climate that has already been fundamentally altered by decades of burning fossil fuels heating our planet #Climate 🧪⚒️🌊 35229
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 09/09/2026How about a 'reverse' attribution? Simple and understandable (though I'm biased): esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/...esd.copernicus.orgESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world 030
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 09/09/2026A vortex is described here but not a huge amount of detail: openai.com/index/navier...openai.comOn the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize ProblemWe’re sharing an AI-generated solution to the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, including a writeup and a formal proof in Lean. 073
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 09/09/2026How much warmer was summer 2026 than 1976 for the UK? Interesting differences between daytime (Tmax) and nighttime (Tmin). 2026 was much warmer than 1976, including in rural areas. (The only exception is daytime temperatures in Scotland.) 05018
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/09/2026Summer in England was record smashing - 2026 was 0.75°C warmer for a seasonal average than the previous record set in... <checks notes>... 2025. The remaining seasonal records from 1976 were all broken by a significant margin this year. (These were the seasonal average Tmax for England and UK) 010531
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/09/20262026 really was a fundamentally different summer to 1976 in terms of temperature across the UK and Europe Data: ERA5 3401178
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/09/2026We haven’t just changed our weather. We’ve changed the climate in which our weather happens. climatelabbook.substack.com/p/learning-f...climatelabbook.substack.comLearning from the summers of 1976 and 2026We have changed the climate in which our weather happens 1261122
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 04/09/2026How does an AI-based weather forecast system cope with the most important weather forecast in history? Paper: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.comPressure: reimagining the D‐Day forecast through machine learningWe reproduce the D-Day forecasts, one of the most iconic and famous forecasts ever made and the subject of the new film ‘Pressure’ using a machine-learning model, AIFS-ENS. While James Stagg and the .... 0164
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 04/09/2026War drama Pressure depicts D‑day’s weather forecast – what we found when we recreated the challenge using modern systems theconversation.com/war-drama-pr...theconversation.comWar drama Pressure depicts D-day’s weather forecast – what we found when we recreated the challenge using modern systemsEven with today’s forecasting technology, D-Day would not have been an easy call as portrayed in the new movie, Pressure. 3224
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 03/09/2026Yes. @climateflavors.bsky.social showed there was a drop in the relative contribution of scenario uncertainty from CMIP5 to CMIP6 (which has probably continued into CMIP7). esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/...esd.copernicus.orgPartitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6Abstract. Partitioning uncertainty in projections of future climate change into contributions from internal variability, model response uncertainty and emissions scenarios has historically relied on m... 120
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 03/09/2026For sure. I guess my (naïve?) assumption was that the additional costs of going net-negative are relatively small compared to the costs of developing CDR to get to net-zero in the first place? Is there no efficiency of scale? 320
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026Fair enough. I find it hard to imagine a radically different politics emerging. But don’t we need quite a lot of CDR to get to net-zero? How we do that if net-negative is ‘too expensive’? 210
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026Some critical observations were taken at Blacksod Point lighthouse in Ireland, and this is mentioned in the film. These were (probably) taken by Maureen Sweeney but there are certainly some embellishments of the story in places. 110
Reposted by Ed HawkinsBerkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 02/09/2026News we could not be more excited to share: the description paper of our high-resolution dataset is now available for review and comment at ESSD. The record provides global coverage at 0.25° resolution, built from 58,311 weather stations extending back to 1750. Pre-print: tinyurl.com/9dw7jbnftinyurl.comBerkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate MonitoringAbstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr... 1145
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026No significant spin up needed. The AI model is trained on the modern era and applied to the initial conditions from a much earlier date. It is an interesting out-of-sample test. 010
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026We have some experimental reconstructions with more data added (but not yet Torshavn): climatelabbook.substack.com/p/pressure-t...climatelabbook.substack.comPRESSURE: the D-Day weather forecastNew reconstruction of the weather of D-Day in June 1944 110
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026Why do you think humans would not deploy CDR at the necessary scale even if we had the technology? 120
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026One part of the new paper compares ERA5 with a newly available pressure series from the Faroe Islands, and highlights some discrepencies. 000
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026No - ERA5, which gives the initial conditions for the forecasts, would have used many fewer observations than were actually available in 1944. ERA6 will have a lot more! rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... (and we've rerun 20CRv3 with the newly rescued observations added too)rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com 110
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026D-Day AIFS weather forecast paper now online! bsky.app/profile/edha... 270
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026Using AIFS-ENS, the ECMWF machine-learning ensemble forecast system, we recreate the forecasts in the days before 6th June 1944. Even at short range, AIFS-ENS moves the storm too rapidly into the Norwegian Sea giving undue confidence for favourable conditions for the landing in Normandy. 180
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026In June 1944, Captain James Stagg faced the unenviable task of advising whether the weather conditions would allow the D-Day landings to proceed, with the lives of 160,000 troops and the fate of the war in the balance. 150
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 02/09/2026How does an AI forecast model handle the uncertainty of the most important weather forecast in history? It is June 1944: Stagg & Eisenhower have a critical decision to make under pressure Reimagining the D-Day forecast through machine learning: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.comPressure: reimagining the D‐Day forecast through machine learningWe reproduce the D-Day forecasts, one of the most iconic and famous forecasts ever made and the subject of the new film ‘Pressure’ using a machine-learning model, AIFS-ENS. While James Stagg and the ... 2304
Reposted by Ed HawkinsUN Environment Programme @unep.org · 02/09/2026Global warming is set to cross 1.5°C, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights, a new UNEP report warns. Predicted impacts include extreme weather and threats to human health and economies. 18355294
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 01/09/2026Is this the first specific attribution reference to fossil fuels by the Met Office? 292
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 01/09/2026Think it’s time for a new extended temperature colour scale… 17020
Reposted by Ed HawkinsMet Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 01/09/2026Summer 2026 is provisionally the UK’s warmest summer on record with the season’s mean temperature made around 130 times more likely due to human-induced climate change. Here, we delve into the numbers 🧵 5262168
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 29/08/2026Visualising a new reconstruction of the weather of D-Day, imagining we had satellite images climatelabbook.substack.com/p/pressure-t... 1191
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 29/08/2026Reconstructed Satellite Images Show How Close D-Day Came to Disaster gizmodo.com/reconstructe...gizmodo.comReconstructed Satellite Images Show How Close D-Day Came to DisasterBuilt off historic weather records, the new images show the surprisingly small break in the clouds that made the landings possible. 3413
Reposted by Ed HawkinsUniversity of Reading @uniofreading.bsky.social · 27/08/2026A break in the clouds helped make D-Day possible. Ahead of the release of new film Pressure, University of Reading's Prof Ed Hawkins and ECMWF reconstructed the weather conditions of 6 June 1944, showing how a few hours either way could have changed history. Read more: rdg.ac/4hT1fQh 156
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 27/08/2026Trailer for the Pressure film - out in cinemas on Sept 9th - can highly recommend! m.youtube.com/watch?v=dAOe...m.youtube.comPRESSURE | Official International Trailer (2026) 4KYouTube video by JoBlo Movie Network 1110
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 27/08/2026Although we can’t easily verify these cloud maps (and they could be made much more realistic), images like this help us understand what troops, sailors and pilots actually faced that day, in a way that written reports alone cannot. 170
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 27/08/2026A new Hollywood film (Pressure) is to be released shortly to tell the story of the infamous weather forecast that enabled D-Day to be a success. We produced a new reanalysis for D-Day, and processed it to look a bit like a satellite image. climatelabbook.substack.com/p/pressure-t... 15414
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 25/08/2026Does it change much for a fixed modern population, or time & space varying population? 100