iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Craig Kafura @ckafura.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Kicking off a great discussion on public opinion, foreign policy, and the 2026 midterms with @roguepollster.bsky.social , John Lapinski, and Asma Khalid @global-affairs.bsky.social

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I once again ask, has anyone seen Bridge Colby? How about the “hard on China” / “though on national security” Republicans on the Hill who only seem to care about it when Dems are in charge? Asking because it seems like blowing up alliances while offering to arm China would warrant some inquiries.

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 27/09/2026

This week, @nkorpett.bsky.social was joined by @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social on Lawfare Daily to talk about the war in Iran: where things stand today, and how we got here. youtu.be/ugs_spb2gvc

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 25/09/2026

On Lawfare Daily, @nkorpett.bsky.social is joined by @atabatabai.bsky.social and @juliacurlee.bsky.social to talk about the war in Iran, where it stand today, and how the gutting of the national security apparatus in Washington affected the way the war is being waged. youtu.be/ugs_spb2gvc

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

After months of tensions over Greenland, the United States, Denmark, and Greenland have reached a deal over the semiautonomous territory. The Council's Julianne Smith, Deborah Rosenblum, and @atabatabai.bsky.social unpack what the security agreement means for NATO, Arctic security, and more. ⤵️

globalaffairs.org

What Trump’s Greenland Deal Means for Arctic Security

Julianne Smith, Deborah Rosenblum, and Ariane Tabatabai discuss how the US-Denmark-Greenland agreement will impact US force posture, intra-NATO tensions, and Trump’s push to acquire Greenland.

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

10+ years of lobbying for this war & going after those questioning their logic. 7 months, 1000s of deaths, billions of $ into it, they’re learning: their goals weren’t reachable, they had serious gaps in “analysis,” they didn’t consider tradeoffs, and they hand waged inconvenient evidence.

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

How is Europe fighting against disinformation and protecting democracy? On October 8, join Paweł Markiewicz, Vanessa Audemard d'Alançon, and @atabatabai.bsky.social for a discussion on disinformation and the future of democratic discourse. bit.ly/4xAIR2x

Promo graphic for the 10/8 Council event "Information Wars: Democracy and the Disinformation Age" featuring speaker headshots and event details.

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 17/09/2026

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @kevintfrazier.bsky.social, @rparloff.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social discussed the week’s big national security news stories, including tensions along NATO’s eastern flank and more. youtu.be/b5Iqt1RXQq0

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juliacurlee.bsky.social @juliacurlee.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

@atabatabai.bsky.social Ariane Tabatabai and I have written the autopsy for Foreign Policy. The blunders will keep coming. They were foreseeable, and long foreseen. foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/09/t...

foreignpolicy.com

How Could Iran Happen? An Autopsy.

The president’s war on the “deep state” led directly to his debacle in the Middle East.

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The Council is proud to announce a special convening with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, US Permanent Representative to NATO Ambassador Matthew G. Whitaker, and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social in Des Moines, Iowa, on 9/22. Learn more and register to attend today: bit.ly/3URuIAw

Promo graphic for the Council's 9/22 event "A Conversation on NATO's Future" featuring speaker headshots and event details.

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Caroline Baxter @convergingriskslab.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Without question the single most haunting essay about the last 25 years, written with a white-hot rage. Essential reading for today and every day after. warontherocks.com/the-wars-las...

warontherocks.com

The War's Last Generation Is Still Holding America's Moral Debt

On the first night of the evacuation of Kabul, Aug. 15, 2021, a young mother found me in the crowd at Hamid Karzai International Airport. She had marked

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

How did the U.S. lose a war against an inferior military? For the autopsy, look at Washington, not Tehran. @juliacurlee.bsky.social & I argue in @foreignpolicy.com this was inevitable after Trump’s 19 month war against “the deep state,” while Congress was MIA. foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/09/t...

foreignpolicy.com

How Could Iran Happen? An Autopsy.

The president’s war on the “deep state” led directly to his debacle in the Middle East.

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Six months into the war against Iran, the Trump administration has realized its strategy isn’t working. Will economic measures succeed where military operations failed? The Council's @atabatabai.bsky.social weighs in. bit.ly/4xZpSQ2

globalaffairs.org

The Next Defining Moment of the Iran War

Six months into the war against Iran, the Trump administration has realized its strategy isn’t working. Will economic measures succeed where military operations failed?

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Capitol Hill Books @capitolhillbooks.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Oh, Dolly. You were a real one.

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Benjamin Wittes @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org · 25/08/2026

It is not up to the president what the Kennedy Center is called. It is not up to the president what the Department of Defense is called. It is not up to the president what the Gulf of Mexico is called. It is not up to the president what Lake Ontario is called.

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

We have Sailors going overboard, Sailors unable to get their prescriptions because they’re stuck on long deployments supporting a tragic war without any real and attainable goals. And here’s the Secretary of Defense complaining again/as usual about trans Service members who he purged months ago.

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 19/08/2026

The U.S.-Iran war has entered the bargaining phase, in which military operations and diplomatic negotiation are a single process and each strike is a message about what one side will pay and what it will accept, writes @juliacurlee.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social.

lawfaremedia.org

Fighting While Talking: The Iran War Enters Its Bargaining Phase

In war, the guns do not fall silent so the diplomats can speak. The guns often speak for them.

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

The failure in Iran is a direct consequence of the war of attrition waged against expertise in the government by this admin and its allies since January 20, 2025. This was all predictable and predicted. Thanks to @gregsargent.bsky.social for having me on the pod.

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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Trump officials now admit his team failed to grasp Iran's rulers and were too confident in surrender, per Politico. But as @atabatabai.bsky.social notes on the pod, he gutted civil service/diplomatic corps, making this sort of failure more likely! She's so good here: newrepublic.com/article/2144...

newrepublic.com

Trump Rage Erupts Over Iran as Aides Leak Embarrassing Truth: He Lost

As Trump melts down over Iran and officials quietly admit the unthinkable, a former Defense Department official explains why time is not on his side—and where this fiasco is headed next.

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 06/08/2026

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @nkorpett.bsky.social, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week's big national security news stories, including the U.S.-Iran war flaring back to life and more. youtu.be/k71SPxIJEjc

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

"American leaders have long treated Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as separate challenges," the Council's @atabatabai.bsky.social and @egmontinstitute.bsky.social's John Drennan write in @time.com. "The US-Israel war with Iran exposed once again the folly of that approach." Read more ⤵️

time.com

How America’s Adversaries Have Stopped Fighting Alone

The war with Iran has made it clear that America’s adversaries are increasingly acting as a coordinated bloc.

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juliacurlee.bsky.social @juliacurlee.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

"Home by Christmas" — the oldest refrain of wars of choice. New Lawfare Daily on the Short War Illusion: Ukraine, Iran, and what Beijing is drawing from both about Taiwan. Check out the podcast with @nkorpett.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social, and @massdara.bsky.social on @lawfaremedia.org.

lawfaremedia.org

Lawfare Daily: Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan, and the Short War Illusion

Dispelling the "Short War Illusion."

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 04/08/2026

On Lawfare Daily, @nkorpett.bsky.social, @massdara.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social, and @juliacurlee.bsky.social discussed how the "Short War Illusion," where countries believe that with the right strategy, they can accomplish their goals with a quick war, is playing out in conflicts today.

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

"I think President Trump had overestimated how much he could achieve militarily," Council Vice President of Research @atabatabai.bsky.social tells @npr.org of the US war with Iran. "I think Iran might now be overestimating what it can achieve diplomatically based on the cycle that we're in."

n.pr

Trump says the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a deal

NPR's Ayesha Rascoe speaks to Ariane Tabatabai of the the Chicago Council on Global Affairs about potential offramps from the war available to the U.S. and Iran.

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Armida van Rij @armida.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Good to sit down with Libby Berry from @global-affairs.bsky.social to discuss where things stand with Russia's war on Ukraine, what the rest of Europe can learn from Ukraine's defence tech ecosystem, and where Ukraine goes from here. Read the interview here: globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

globalaffairs.org

How Russia's War on Ukraine is Reshaping Europe's Defense Strategy

The conflict offers lessons for how to bolster European security with less support from the United States.

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Exactly this. Obviously, first and foremost, the human cost of this war should be the focus. (2 more service members today and how many civilians?) But also, we need to talk about the readiness impact of this war and how long (and how much $) it’ll take to rebuild after these choices.

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 19/07/2026

🎙️ New Rational Security: @sranderson.bsky.social, Dan Byman, @juliacurlee.bsky.social & @atabatabai.bsky.social on the collapsed Iran ceasefire and Trump's "Guardian of the Strait" toll plan, a tense NATO summit in Ankara, and the U.S.-Israel relationship fraying in public. youtu.be/8uWuo1r7sY4?...

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 16/07/2026

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, Daniel Byman, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week’s foreign policy news, including the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, last week's NATO meeting, and more. youtu.be/8uWuo1r7sY4

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Great to be back on @npr.org’s All Things Considered to discuss the demise of the US-Iran ceasefire and what happens next: one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5886...

one.npr.org

🔊 Listen Now: President Trump says ceasefire with Iran is over. What happens next?

All Things Considered on NPR One | 5:56

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

"A Le Pen presidency would likely be a negation of Macron’s approach to international affairs and a complete departure from the past decade of French foreign policy," Council Vice President of Research @atabatabai.bsky.social writes. bit.ly/4p7CjWB

globalaffairs.org

What a Le Pen Presidency Could Mean for France, Europe, and NATO

Far-right National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen has joined the French presidential race. Her victory would spark a complete departure from French foreign policy under Macron.

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

NATO summit in Ankara wraps with renewed focus on Greenland, Iran ceasefire uncertainty, and U.S.-Spain trade. Fresh off the ground there, my readout: what got done (Ukraine support!), intra-NATO tensions, and Türkiye as host. globalaffairs.org/commentary/a...

globalaffairs.org

Inside the NATO Summit in Ankara: Ukraine, Iran, and Turkey's F-35 Bid

From Turkey's F-35 ambitions to Zelensky's meeting with Trump, Council expert Ariane Tabatabai unpacks how burden sharing, Ukraine's evolving role, and unresolved tensions over Iran shaped this year's...

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

So we are: 1. Terminating all sanctions on Iran, including human rights designations; 2. Deporting Iranian asylum seekers to a country engaging in mass repression; 3. AND sharing info on said individuals so they get detained, tortured, and possibly killed upon return?! www.npr.org/2026/07/07/g...

npr.org

New lawsuit alleges US shared asylum application details with Iran

A lawsuit alleges the Trump administration is divulging details of Iranian asylum seekers to the government of Iran.

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

@columbiauniversity.bsky.social's Richard Nephew and @brookings.edu's Dafna Rand joined Council Vice President of Research Ariane Tabatabai for a conversation on how the choices the United States makes now will shape what Iran looks like when the fighting stops. Watch: bit.ly/3SDVHOZ

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 01/07/2026

"NATO 3.0 fails not because it asks Europeans to do more, but because it never defines what they are supposed to do more of, or why, and because it has made force posture an instrument of political coercion rather than strategic planning," writes @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social.

lawfaremedia.org

NATO 3.0: A Tagline in Search of a Concept

Force Posture Decisions Have Become Another Coercive Tool in the Trump Administration’s Alliance Management Toolkit

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jstreetdotorg.bsky.social @jstreetdotorg.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Yesterday on Word on the Street Live, J Street’s @ilangoldenberg.bsky.social and Iran experts @atabatabai.bsky.social and Nate Swanson discussed the lack of accountability for the politicians and policymakers who champion ill-conceived wars that cost thousands of lives and harm U.S. interests. 1/2

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

As the United States turns 250, it faces growing skepticism about its leadership on the world stage. But rebuilding trust with allies will take more than an election cycle, Council Vice President of Research @atabatabai.bsky.social writes. Read the full analysis ➡️ bit.ly/4aBuRNs

an image of lawmakers listening to the state of the union with a text overlay

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

Apparently the plan is to have the U.S. military implement the playbook of the Revolutionary Guards. We spent billions of dollars on a war so that Iran could just outsource its decades long plan of closing the Strait to the U.S. Navy.

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 20/06/2026

@sranderson.bsky.social, @alanrozenshtein.com, @tylermcbrien.com, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social break down a busy week in national security from the U.S.-Iran deal to the Commerce Department's export control order on Anthropic's AI models. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/rati...

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 18/06/2026

On June 17, President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding negotiated by Iran and the United States to end the 110-day-long war. J. Dana Stuster explains what is–and is not–in the agreement, the supposed final deal to come, and the many ways this flimsy arrangement might unravel.

lawfaremedia.org

Ceasefire Without End

The Memorandum of Understanding with Iran will end the U.S.-Iran conflict without ending the war.

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Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 18/06/2026

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @alanrozenshtein.com, @tylermcbrien.com, @juliacurlee.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week’s national security news, including the potential deal between the United States and Iran, and more. youtu.be/C2kN6Hj9pV0

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

This here is really great work. It’s putting in numbers, black on white, what we have known for a while: that the admin’s stated objectives for and goal posts in the conflict have been shifting throughout the war. And that’s apparent in the poor planning for the war and this agreement.

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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

The US and Iran reached a deal — but "we don't really know a whole lot," says Council VP of Research @atabatabai.bsky.social. The nuclear issue, Iran's proxy support, and its ballistic missile program are all unresolved. Now a 60-day clock is ticking to work it out. bit.ly/4fMIBsc

globalaffairs.org

The United States and Iran Reach a Deal but Agree to Little

Trump celebrated his 80th birthday with a UFC fight and a preliminary deal with Iran, kicking off a 60-day clock for negotiations.

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Looking forward to this conversation next week.

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

If this is the text of the MOU with Iran, it is an absolute disaster. Iran gives almost nothing, the U.S. makes many concessions. This is what happens when Congress goes MIA, and people with no experience and understating of the issues run the show. www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/m...

cnn.com

Read the 14-point draft agreement between the US and Iran | CNN

The agreement between Iran and the US lays out the terms of the ceasefire between the bitter rivals, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, some financial relief for Iran and a reiteration from Tehran...

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Trump keeps saying this war and agreement are about Iran never acquiring a nuclear weapon, except that the interim deal signed this week as reported doesn’t seem to be that concerned with the nuclear issue. There are few details (none, really) on what we’re limiting and how we’re verifying it.

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Ariane Tabatabai @atabatabai.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Exactly this. There is a reason why we typically spell out agreement provisions in detailed legalese. That’s especially true with an adversary like Iran with a history of covert activities in violation of its international obligations.

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Jon B. Wolfsthal @jonatomic.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

So I am no @djrothkopf.bsky.social but I tested out the Substack podcast tool. I spoke to @joecirin.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social about US-Iran "agreement" and what to look out for in the hours, days and weeks ahead. Gonna be a long bumpy road. thinkingnuclear.substack.com/p/deal-or-no...

thinkingnuclear.substack.com

Deal or No Deal: Iran Edition.

A recording by Jon Wolfsthal with my colleague Joe Cirincione and Ariane Tabatabai

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