iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 10/03/2026

Love when my heating fuel price resembles Bitcoin

Chart showing the TTF gas price spiking to 55 EUR/MWh and hovering around that price before falling

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 05/03/2026

Nonetheless, heat pumps are still victim to widespread uncertainty: Germany's decision to water down (again) its building energy law, France's stalling of its grant scheme tand Italy's cutting of tax credits all contribute to rising uncertainty. Long-term commitments are still desperately needed.

120

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 05/03/2026

Good to see a rebound in heat pump sales across Europe. Shipments are still lower than the manic years of 2022 and 2023, but the industry is maturing and it is beginning to feel more sustainable.

252

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 06/02/2026

Heat pumps, in total, are still outselling condensing boilers though. What happened? A few thoughts: 1) End of the energy crisis and high gas prices. This caused an important cultural shift towards "getting off gas" that is still reflected in the lower boiler sales, but not in heat pump sales.

120

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 06/02/2026

🚨No 2025 heat pump rebound in France. Very similar market to 2024. 🟰 After dropping 40% in 2024, sales of air-to-water heat pumps stayed roughly flat. The 2025 rebound seen in other countries, such as Germany, did not happen in Europe's (still?) leading heat pump market.

143

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 06/02/2026

Guess the market: Bitcoin or a certain kind of heating technology in France? Source: www.uniclima.fr/userfiles/20...

Chart showing a mystery collapse from 41,980 units sold in 2022 to 9,570 units sold in 2025.

000

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 03/02/2026

Voilà: Gas consumption in France fell again. 350 TWh in 2025, down 3% from 2024. Household use fell 1.8%. Heat pumps are a main driver of this. But France is once again faced with tariff increases due to lower volumes. Long-term planning is needed. www.connaissancedesenergies.org/la-consommat...

Chart showing gas consumption in France reached a new low in 2025

030

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 02/02/2026

Here comes Germany's heat pump market. A big rally in 2025. Almost 300,000 heat pumps sold in 2025 for the second-highest sales volume ever, by far, and a 55% increase on 2024. It would appear that the market is settling after the frenzy of 2022/2023 and hopefully good things to come in 2026.

Chart of heat pump sales in Germany, showing a peak at around 350,000 units sold in 2023 and a rebound in 2025 of 299,000 units sold.

2182

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 28/01/2025

What's happening tomorrow?

000

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 23/12/2024

With the collapse of the hydrogen hype bubble, we can only hope that it takes some pressure off the absurd and inefficient idea of "hydrogen for home heating". www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bloomberg chart showing number of hydrogen project announcements by "annual hydrogen output" for 2019-2024. Each year was progressively higher (reaching about 80 million metric tons in 2023), before collapsing to around 20m metric tons in 2024.

3307

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 19/12/2024

European countries are still incentivizing fossil fuel boilers. In some, it may not be a subsidy but they still benefit from lower VAT. Only when all policy signals are properly aligned can we hope for a deep heating transition in Europe. Very nice research by EHPA. www.ehpa.org/news-and-res...

Just six countries out of 30 have lower VAT on heat pumps than on fossil fuel boilers.

041

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 18/12/2024

About 96% of energy savings also went to owner-occupiers. This has edged downwards in the past three years but it highlights a main policy making gap: how to encourage energy efficient renovations and heat pump installations in tenant-occupied buildings? And in multi-family homes?

Chart showing energy savings from measures in Ma Prime Renov by type of beneficiary. It shows 99% going to owner-occupiers in 2021, 98% in 2022 and 96% in 2023.

110

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 18/12/2024

Recent findings from Ma Prime Rénov in 2023 make this clear. Of the 470,000 households that received a subsidy in 2023, more than 440,000 were single-family homes. That's about 94%.

Infographic from French website showing the data discussed in the thread.

110

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 28/11/2024

Never claimed to be an art genius but yesterday for the first time I saw Monet's painting of his dead wife Camille and it is just about the coldest thing I've seen This guy really saw Camille breathe her last and fired up the old easel immediately It haunts me on many levels

Monet painted his wife Camille as she lay dead, there's no other way to say it

141

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 21/11/2024

Hello from Chisinau where I'm working on an IEA roadmap for heat pumps in Moldova. 🇲🇩 The view from the hotel room is promising to say the least.

View of a rooftop with a whole bunch of heat pumps visible.

040

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 17/11/2024

If this is such an ecko chamber then why am I the only one posting these sick fits

010

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 16/11/2024

Oh man, it's Oman... btw this kicks ass, thank you

010

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 15/11/2024

The only thing that comes to mind is the EC impact assessment for 2040, saying 60m heat pumps by 2030 and 80m by 2040. As @acjsissons.bsky.social pointed out, modelling flex is key. Fabric too. You could also take a look at this @nworbmot.bsky.social paper www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Chart showing heat pump stock by 2050 in Europe

120

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 15/11/2024

ALSO: We prepared a bunch of videos that give an easy introduction to how heat pumps works, their benefits, and the different policy levers. Please share with friends and family! www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTr6...

Screenshot of a youtube channel showing RAP's heat pump videos.

131

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 15/11/2024

We added some new case studies in this version, so you can dive into specific measures taken by countries, and some states and provinces. All countries, not just those we looked at in the Toolkit, have adopted a rather piecemeal approach to heat pump policy. Not comprehensive enough.

Traffic light classification of the heat pump policy mixes

100

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 15/11/2024

So many heat pumps are needed to reach net-zero. In this case, according to the IEA, we calculated that based on current trends, we are falling around 2500 GW short.

Line chart showing deployment gap of heat pumps and net zero scenario.

130

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 15/11/2024

Led by @richardlowes.bsky.social, the toolkit provides detailed advice on designing policies for rapid heat pump uptake. We find that a comprehensive policy approach is the most effective. That means tacking regulation, pricing, economic instruments together and not in isolation.

111

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 15/11/2024

Very excited to share that our Heat Pump Toolkit has been given a makeover, updated with new case studies and was published today! 🔥 www.raponline.org/toolkit/heat...

Cover photo of "A policy toolkit for global mass heat pump deployment - version 2.0"

34616

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 15/11/2024

This is live-streaming now! www.youtube.com/watch?v=aALR...

Richard Lowes introducing the new Heat Pump Toolkit and the panel.

010

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 14/11/2024

Fascinating to see the fossil fuel jobs drop off in 2020 and only slowwwwly recover. Meanwhile far more investment is going into renewables than fossils. iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/7350d...

Charts showing investment in clean energy and fossil fuels and employment in clean energy and fossil fuels.

094

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 14/11/2024

And yet iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/7350d...

Chart showing investment in clean energy and fossil fuels and a chart showing employment in clean energy and fossil fuels.

010

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 13/11/2024

French consumer advice group HelloWatt finds that a heat pump is the most cost-effective heating device in 2024. www.hellowatt.fr/pompe-a-chal...

1357

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 13/11/2024

The writing has been on the wall for years. Canada's ultra-expensive tar sands oil simply has no place in a world phasing out fossil fuels. They can yell about ethical oil as much as they want, but everyone knows which way the wind is blowing. (so to speak) iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/f065a...

030

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 12/11/2024

At these events, Richard will share our latest data on energy price ratios around the world. See below with data from Eurostat and IEA. Obviously having a single price for the US makes little sense, but we focused on national level this time. Low-cost electricity is key for heat pumps.

Chart showing ratio of electricity to fossil gas prices for heating. Countries at >4 include Canada, North Africa, Russia and Eurasian countries. Countries at 3-4 include the US and much of Eastern Europe. Countries at 2-3 include much of western Europe and Turkey. Countries at 1-2 include South American states, Australia, New Zealand and Japan.

035

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 12/11/2024

2️⃣ Next steps on the pathway for clean heating 🔥🛣️ Who: Polish gov, Schneider Electric, Carrier, UK CCC, UNEP When: 19 November at 16:30 local and 13:30 Paris/12:30 London. Where: GlobalABC Buildings Pavilion and livestreamed here: globalabc.org/cop-buildings-pavilion Come one, come all!

020

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 12/11/2024

1️⃣ Launch of our 2024 Heat Pump Policy Toolkit! 🔥🔨 Who: IEA, Bain, Carrier, UK CCC and UK gov. When: 15 November at 17:50 local and 14:50 Paris/13:50 London. Where: UK Pavilion and livestreamed here: www.youtube.com/@ukcoppavilion

110

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 12/11/2024

Sharing TWO exciting🔥clean heating🔥events at COP29 in Baku hosted by dear friend and colleague @richardlowes.bsky.social. Both of these events can be livestreamed: see details in next post. 1️⃣ Launch of our 2024 Heat Pump Policy Toolkit! 🔥🔨 2️⃣ Next steps on the pathway for clean heating 🔥🛣️

163

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 07/11/2024

There just isn't enough money flowing into energy efficiency. Investment is flat since 2022. DECLINING in Europe since 2022. What are we doing!? Definitely not doubling efficiency rates, which is the goal by 2030.

0112

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 24/10/2024

French heat pump prices are still rising. Shown here is a mid-sized air-to-water system. Fortunately the rate of increase has slowed down compared to 2021/2022. But it's still not great news, especially as funding cuts have been announced for key support programmes.

030

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 22/10/2024

The French heat pump market has seen a massive shift in refrigerant. In 2023, more than 90% of sales were R32, a fluid 3-times less GHG-intense than R410A, the previous industry standard. In 2019, more than 90% of sales were R410A. energies-renouvelables.org/etudes-obser...

173

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 22/10/2024

Some figures from the French HP market in 2023. Interesting that more than 80% of air-to-water heat pumps are being installed in existing buildings. From Observ'ER, excuse my ugly English text boxes energies-renouvelables.org/etudes-obser...

021

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 17/10/2024

What does it all mean? Fans of hybrids will tell you that they're useful as an intermediate step. Instead of replacing your boiler, install a small heat pump and then eventually, someday, swap the whole thing out for a larger heat pump. This idea has problems.

120

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 17/10/2024

For households, we dig into claims that hybrids make heat pump installs easier, boost consumer confidence and lower running costs. We find that only in countries with very high price ratios would hybrids deliver savings compared to a standalone heat pump. And that's if your system is optimised.

120

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 17/10/2024

At energy system level, our paper discusses the power grid, energy system costs, heat pumps in the cold and GHG emissions. On GHGs, we find that in almost all EUcountries, heat pumps are more climate-friendly than gas boilers. Hybrids would lead to significantly more emissions than a heat pump.

140

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 17/10/2024

So, whybrids? In the leakiest buildings, they could postpone envelope and heating system upgrades required by a standalone heat pump. In Europe's coldest regions, they can help provide full heating on the coldest days of the year. And they can be a key source of flexibility to congested power grids.

111

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 17/10/2024

Hybrids combine a heat pump with a fossil fuel system. In our paper, we focus on air-to-water heat pumps combined with a gas boiler in an optimised control strategy. In our view, this is the most relevant use case and the one that needs the most attention.

120

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 17/10/2024

Heat pumps are a key heating technology in buildings. But Europe's building stock is leaky and some people are worried by the potential impact of massive heat pump use on the electricity grid. What role for hybrid heat pumps? 🧵 www.raponline.org/knowledge-ce...

72412

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 26/09/2024

Grids are one of the most challenging issues of the energy transition. Join this webinar TODAY with RAP's @patozsu.bsky.social to learn more about how to make grids "fit-for-purpose". Not to be missed! internationalcopper.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗶𝘁-𝗳𝗼𝗿-𝗽𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗱𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝘁-𝘇𝗲𝗿𝗼 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲

043

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 24/09/2024

Looking at residential heat mixes for an update to our heat pump toolkit. Ordered it by district heat this time. Look at how the countries with the highest share of district heat have among the lowest gas. Gas-heavy countries can think of replacing one network with another. Sources in reply.

Chart shows a descending share of district heating in European countries, starting with Norway, Denmark and Latvia, finishing with UK, Belgium and Spain.

5129

Duncan Gibb @duncangibb.net · 21/05/2024

@janrosenow.bsky.social and I looked at the dynamics in heat pump markets last year. Sales struggled in a few countries, but there is a growing trend of heat pumps capturing market share from gas boilers. Available on @carbonbrief.org: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-h...

Chart showing growing market share of heat pumps across major European countries.

143