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John Ellis

@drjohnellis.bsky.social
66 followers 143 following 2 posts

Mathematical modeller in the TB modelling group at LSHTM

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Reposted by John Ellis
TB Centre LSHTM @tb-lshtm.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🌍 Working with @gavi.org, @lshtm.bsky.social researchers led by @drjohnellis.bsky.social modelled the potential impact of new TB vaccines across 73 LMICs. 💉 vaccines delivered between 2030 and 2050 could avert up to 61 million TB cases and 7 million deaths by 2100. Read more 👉 bit.ly/4rkkTax
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Reposted by John Ellis
Gavi @gavi.org · 16/09/2026
For more than a century, the world has relied on a single licensed TB vaccine. Next generation vaccines, expected from 2029, could help save an estimated 7.3 million lives and generate up to US$135 billion in economic benefits for low- and middle-income countries by 2050: bit.ly/4cHSJQL
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Reposted by John Ellis
LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
New paper from @plosglobalpublichealth.org: which TB screening strategies are the best value as funding shrinks? Modelling clinic/community approaches in 🇿🇦, we found combining strategies reaching risk groups is more cost-effective than any one approach alone doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0006738
doi.org
Projected population level impact and cost-effectiveness of clinic and community-based tuberculosis screening approaches
The South African National Department of Health have set ambitious targets to scale up TB testing, focusing primarily on clinic attendees. In the context of declining funding for TB care and preventio...
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Reposted by John Ellis
LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
New preprint suggests that combining clinic and community-based approaches is key to maximising the cost-effectiveness of #tuberculosis active case finding in South Africa 🇿🇦 Read more 👉 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
medrxiv.org
Projected population level impact and cost-effectiveness of clinic and community-based tuberculosis screening approaches
The South Africa National Department of Health have set ambitious targets to scale up TB testing, focusing primarily on clinic attendees. In the context of declining funding for TB care and prevention...
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Reposted by John Ellis
Katherine Horton @kchorton.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
It's been 10 years since we published our first review of sex differences in #TB prevalence. In this update, we found men remain twice as likely as women to have TB, and disparities have likely widened over time. journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...
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Reposted by John Ellis
CMMID @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
🗞️ Recent study with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social modelled the potential impact of funding cuts to TB #PublicHealth initiatives from international donors Already implemented USAID cuts could cost $7.5 billion (USD) for healthcare systems & people living with TB Read 🔽 www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/cen...
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Reposted by John Ellis
Rebecca Clark @raclark18.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Our recent modelling study found that the estimated impact of new TB vaccines depends on the efficacy to prevent infectious asymptomatic TB. Read more in our paper out now in @plosmedicine.org! journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...
journals.plos.org
Estimating the population impact of new tuberculosis vaccines depending on efficacy against infectious asymptomatic tuberculosis: A modelling study
Hira Tanvir and colleagues estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines under three scenarios of efficacy and conclude that to achieve the greatest impact, vaccines must prevent asymptom...
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Reposted by John Ellis
PLOS Medicine @plosmedicine.org · 24/02/2026
In this modeling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries 🧪 #MedSky #TB plos.io/4ryyBFX
plos.io
The potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of tuberculosis in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study
In a modelling study, Allison Portnoy and colleagues investigate the potential impact of reduced international donor funding on the household economic burden of Tuberculosis in low- and middle-income ...
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Reposted by John Ellis
Alvaro Schwalb @aschwalbc.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
1/📢 In our new publication, we estimate that in 2022, 134 million people worldwide had a recent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection and were at high risk of progressing to TB disease. Read the full paper in PLOS Medicine (tinyurl.com/mtbinfection). #TBSky
tinyurl.com
Estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: A mathematical modelling study
Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues conducted a mathematical modelling study to estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis--that which can cause disease and be transmitted--to help guid...
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Reposted by John Ellis
PLOS Medicine @plosmedicine.org · 09/02/2026
In this mathematical modeling study, Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis—that which can cause disease and be transmitted—to help guide disease prevention efforts 🧪 #tuberculosis #MedSky plos.io/4aqzIQV
plos.io
Estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: A mathematical modelling study
Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues conducted a mathematical modelling study to estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis--that which can cause disease and be transmitted--to help guid...
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Reposted by John Ellis
LSHTM TB Modelling Group @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Our new paper on strategies for implementing a potential new #TB #vaccine in South Africa is now published in @plosglobalpublichealth.org! doi.org/10.1371/jour...
doi.org
Insights on the implementation strategies for a potential new tuberculosis vaccine in South Africa
Several tuberculosis (TB) vaccines intended for adults and adolescents are in late-stage clinical trials, but there is limited research into how a new TB vaccine would be introduced. South Africa is a...
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Reposted by John Ellis
Richard White @richardwhite321.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Another successful "Intro to TB Modelling" course in Copenhagen at #WLHC2025. Over 70 joined to learn about TB modelling! Followed by the now-traditional TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium social, which was also very well-attended and a lot of fun.
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Reposted by John Ellis
Finn McQuaid @cfmcquaid.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Our framework that informed the @who.int TB & climate change policy brief out now in @lancetrespirmed.bsky.social, exploring the intersections and implications of climate change for the TB epidemic. Key message? TB should be considered a climate-sensitive disease www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Climate change and tuberculosis: an analytical framework
Climate change is likely to exacerbate a range of determinants that drive tuberculosis, the world's leading cause of death from a single infectious agent. However, tuberculosis is often neglected in w...
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John Ellis @drjohnellis.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
New preprint, by myself and Roy Anderson, looking at what impact including PSAC in MDA for schistosomiasis will have and how much it could vary between communities.
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