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David Phinnemore

@dphinnemore.bsky.social
6.5K followers 284 following 818 posts

Professor of European Politics, Queen's University Belfast. EU politics, treaty reform, enlargement, Brexit/Protocol/Windsor Framework

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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
If you’re wondering why the anticipated UK-EU SPS Agreement will be GB-specific and not replace the arrangements for Northern Ireland under Windsor Framework, look no further. www.ft.com/content/f923...
ft.com
Tory plan to rip up UK-EU food deal risks ‘huge uncertainty’
Food and drink industry fears it may be forced to comply with different regulatory regimes every few years
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Reposted by David Phinnemore
Georgina Wright (on leave) @georginaewright.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Another great piece by @samfr.bsky.social on the route back into the EU for the UK. That said, one thing that is massively underappreciated in the UK is the EU's own appetite to begin membership talks with the UK. samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...
samf.substack.com
The route back into the EU
Back in 2022 I wrote about the long-term prospects for undoing Brexit and made two predictions.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
“For us, there is a fundamental difference between a transitional period and a permanent restriction. Ukraine is prepared for the former. The latter would run counter to the very logic of full European Union membership” - Vysotskyi www.politico.eu/article/ukra...
politico.eu
Ukraine says no to EU membership without access to selling grain
A permanent restriction on Kyiv’s market access would “run counter to the very logic” of full EU membership, Ukraine’s agriculture minister told POLITICO.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
“when Burnham comes to appraise options for the EU relationship…he might find it hard to escape the conclusion that, for a country on the EU’s doorstep and highly dependent on it as a trade partner, the economic costs of non-membership are becoming ever harder to bear” ukandeu.ac.uk/made-in-euro...
ukandeu.ac.uk
'Made in Europe' casts a shadow over Burnham's EU gambit - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland argues that the EU’s increasingly protectionist regulatory model is likely to increase the economic costs of non-membership for the UK,...
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Reposted by David Phinnemore
UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
🎉NEW REPORT OUT🎉 ⬅️The latest edition of the UK-EU divergence tracker by @jreland.bsky.social is here ➡️ "There is plenty happening on the continent which is going to have a profound effect on the UK, whether [the UK] pays attention or not." ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/uk-e...
ukandeu.ac.uk
UK-EU Divergence Tracker Q2 - Q3 2026 - UK in a changing Europe
This is the seventeenth edition of UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker, outlining how UK and EU rules and regulations have aligned and diverged in the period April-September 2026.
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Reposted by David Phinnemore
Conor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
1/4 🧵 What happens next if power sharing at Stormont collapses over Drumcree? @colinmurray.bsky.social and I have taken a look for @ukandeu.bsky.social. The answer is perhaps less straightforward than you might think. ukandeu.ac.uk/what-happens...
ukandeu.ac.uk
What happens next if power sharing at Stormont collapses over Drumcree? - UK in a changing Europe
Conor J. Kelly and Colin Murray discuss what would happen next if one of the major parties pulled out of the Stormont...
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"The government immediately made clear that it would respect the [August referendum] result and that there would be no resumption of EU accession negotiations during the current parliamentary term. The application for membership itself, however, has not been withdrawn" ukandeu.ac.uk/icelands-eu-...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Iceland still wants a close relationship with the EU - UK in a changing Europe
Margrét Einarsdóttir reflects on the result of the recent referendum in Iceland that saw the public narrowly vote against reopening accession talks with the European Union.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"a Britain that could become a backdoor into the European market for Chinese goods" - EU Official
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"There is a cruel irony in how European concerns about Britain have evolved: from fears of a ‘Singapore-on-Thames’ to fears of a ‘Turkey-across-the-Channel'... The concern today is no longer a hyper-competitive, globalised Britain on Europe’s doorstep, but... www.ft.com/content/5453...
ft.com
EU urges UK to raise tariffs on Chinese cars to avoid ‘made in Europe’ barriers
London has lobbied intensely to secure equal treatment for British products but continues to rule out a customs union
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
It begs the question: what constitutes an 'adjustment' to the treaties - permissible via an accession treaty (Article 49 TEU) - and what constitutes an 'amendment', for which treaty revision via Article 49 TEU would be necessary.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Novel proposal to use future EU accession treaties to 'adjust' the EU's treaties to deny new member states veto rights in certain areas while simultaneously phasing out over a ten year period in these areas the current unanimity requirement and so the veto rights of existing member states.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"The 2027 election calendar... serves as an impetus to push for early progress on several critical files before election campaigns lead to a hardening of national positions... However, this window of opportunity is closing rapidly" carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...
carnegieendowment.org
How Europe’s 2027 Elections Could Test EU Governance
Radical-right parties are expected to do well in upcoming elections in four of the EU's biggest member states. If successful, they could prevent the union from addressing key challenges ahead.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"Zagreb's demands include compensation for war camp survivors... cooperation in locating 14 people still missing from the Croatian War of Independence, prosecutions over war crimes, and resolution of Croatian families' outstanding property claims in Montenegro." www.euronews.com/2026/09/24/m...
euronews.com
Montenegro's EU accession bid faces bilateral issues with Croatia
Montenegro's 2028 EU accession timeline is at risk unless it resolves soon its bilateral disputes with Croatia over war crimes, maritime borders, and property claims. #EuropeNews
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Reposted by David Phinnemore
Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"Absolute tosh" is the kind of British understatement I was looking for to describe this warped proposal of wanting to rejoin the EU, but not just the one that is there, and thinking an ex-member can dictate the terms of reforms... The more I think about it, the more absolute tosh it becomes.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
’The delays [in setting date for EU-UK summit] are starting to raise eyebrows among diplomats who fear the two sides may be playing hardball over the [Made in Europe] issue and putting the whole “reset” at risk.’ www.politico.eu/article/eu-u...
politico.eu
EU warns UK not to put itself in a corner on Brexit reset
European officials warn the U.K. would be playing a high-risk game if it delays an upcoming summit over Brussels’ protectionist push.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
“Creating a category of associate membership might seem like a solution in search of a problem” - @profkaarmstrong.bsky.social theconversation.com/what-might-c...
theconversation.com
What might Canada’s EU ‘associate membership’ look like, and is it even a possibility?
Making Canada the EU’s first ‘associate member’ may be a solution in search of a problem.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
“British demands may get a sympathetic hearing from most member states… they face two formidable obstacles: the French and the [EP]… Neither can easily explain to their voters how a car that could be made in the EU ends up being made in Britain.” - EU Official giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
John Healey to urge Brussels to include UK in ‘Made in Europe’ policy
British finance minister will indicate to EU counterparts that London is willing to negotiate to reach ‘reset’ deal
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
'“We cannot decide on something that does not exist,” quipped one diplomat. A second said the idea would probably “die” in negotiations with member states. “It’s classic [von der Leyen],” noted a third. “Promise first, get approval later.”' www.ft.com/content/7b1a...
ft.com
Why Mark Carney’s romance with Europe can only go so far
Berlin opposes fast track to EU ‘associate membership’ for Canada, with officials warning Ottawa risks angering other partners
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
‘One EU diplomat said that there was substantial backing among key member states for the UK to be included in Made in Europe… not all agreed. “The problem is the benefits are seen as asymmetrical,” the diplomat said. “The UK gets more out of it than the EU.”’ www.theguardian.com/world/2026/s...
theguardian.com
‘Made in Europe’ law threatens UK plans for reset with EU
Government sources say legislation aimed at China poses a risk to British businesses and must be addressed
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
“I’m not saying that we don’t like this term... All I’m saying is, before you actually get to the point where you decide what you’re going to call something, you should actually know the shape of it.” - Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada’s ambassador-designate to the EU www.euractiv.com/news/canada-...
euractiv.com
Canada keeps ‘associate membership’ label at arm’s length | Euractiv
'We're really much more focused on getting concrete results,' said the Canadian EU-envoy
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Less 'EU wants', more Commission President 'would like to work... on opening the door for Canada to be the first associate member of the EU." Any decision on conferring such a status would rest with the member states... and almost certainly require unanimity... www.politico.eu/article/eu-w...
politico.eu
EU wants Canada to become ‘associate member,’ von der Leyen says
European Commission president proposes a new “Alliance for the Future” to build on existing trade EU-Canada trade agreement.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Joint Statement from today's EU-UK Specialised Committee on the Implementation of the Windsor Framework Among more detailed of recent statements Notes SPS facilities functioning, confirms arrangements for parcels and steel and value of stakeholder engagement. commission.europa.eu/document/dow...
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Meeting today: Specialised Committee on the Implementation of the Windsor Framework
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
“A meeting to clinch deals to reset post-Brexit relations on July 22 was postponed, and the talks were quietly pencilled in for November 6. But this date has again been pushed back until late November at the earliest, two EU officials told the FT.” www.ft.com/content/1823...
ft.com
EU-UK reset talks delayed again amid tension over ‘Made in Europe’ rules
Summit pushed back until late November against backdrop of challenges facing UK industry
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
So, Canada is reportedly eyeing “associate member” status with the EU. This will be a new one for the EU given no such status exists. A state can become a member (via Article 49 TEU) or in practice an 'associate' via an association agreement (Article 217 TFEU). www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
euronews.com
Canada eyes ‘associate member’ status with EU amid US tensions
Carney reportedly seeks ‘associate’ EU membership as Ottawa-Washington ties hit fresh low. He will address the European Parliament next week. #EuropeNews
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
"While a referendum on an island of just under 400,000 inhabitants in the North Atlantic normally wouldn’t grab too many headlines, this vote could have far-reaching consequences for the EU... candidate[s]... and other European countries... pondering closer relations" www.rferl.org/a/iceland-eu...
rferl.org
Wider Europe Briefing: What Iceland's EU Referendum Means For Europe
In this week's newsletter, RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak drills down on one issue: Iceland’s EU referendum.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
‘The key theme looming over the Icelandic referendum is sovereignty. But it’s an issue that cuts two ways, and polls suggest the referendum is on a knife-edge. A Gallup poll in mid-August gave the “Yes” camp a wafer-thin advantage, with 51.5 percent support.’ www.politico.eu/article/dona...
politico.eu
Trump’s Arctic saber-rattling boosts Iceland’s pro-EU campaign
Icelanders vote on Saturday in a referendum on resuming membership talks with the EU.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
"According to recent polls, 53 per cent of Icelanders would vote in favour of resuming membership negotiations, compared to 47 per cent against. With such a narrow margin, turnout could prove decisive in the referendum [on 29 August]." www.epc.eu/publication/...
epc.eu
Icelandic EU ambitions: half-in, but still reluctant to join
Iceland will hold a referendum on 29 August 2026 on whether to resume negotiations with the European Union (EU) on membership. The resurgence of great-power competition in the strategically important North Atlantic has created an increasingly uncertain and unstable environment in which smaller states feel particularly affected. NATO and the EU have generally provided important strategic shelters for smaller states. While traditionally the EU’s primary role has been strongest in economic security, it is also becoming increasingly significant in geopolitics and security matters.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Falconer: “there are some really important technical questions that we have got to get right… we also need to put this in the big picture… there is… a massive wider European agenda, which is really important to us… Britain is really important to that agenda too” www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Labour seeking ‘deeper relationship’ with EU under Burnham, new minister says
Exclusive: Hamish Falconer wants ‘sense of renewed pace’ in post-Brexit talks while staying within Labour’s red lines
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
“Polls suggest the vote could go down to the wire. A survey published last week put the Yes campaign narrowly ahead, while another released on Thursday showed the two sides level, with 8% of voters still undecided.” www.euractiv.com/news/exclusi...
euractiv.com
EXCLUSIVE: Iceland asks Brussels to stay out of EU referendum | Euractiv
Iceland’s government backs a Yes vote but warned that foreign interference will not be tolerated
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
“For all the hope and expectation in candidate countries, the underlying question remains: is the EU itself ready for new members, regardless of whether new members are ready for the bloc?” www.ft.com/content/f8fc...
ft.com
‘It’s now or never.’ Is the EU serious about letting in new members?
Candidate countries hope for progress after years of inaction, but some in Brussels are still uncertain about enlargement
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
"The European Commission has signalled that it is open to a bespoke fisheries settlement and that exemptions could form part of future talks, but EU officials this week cautioned that a full formal exemption would be very unusual." www.ft.com/content/9388...
ft.com
Iceland demands fisheries control in any EU membership deal
Foreign minister sets red lines ahead of referendum this month on reopening talks to join bloc
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
"North Macedonia is a star pupil for Brussels on paper — fully aligned with the EU’s foreign policy and an eager candidate for membership since 2005. Yet two decades on, Skopje is still waiting for its accession talks to properly begin... patience is wearing thin" www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
For background see this @niassembly.bsky.social paper by @anuragdeb.bsky.social
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
On the Windsor Framework... and for the next EU-UK Joint Committee... clarification that the end of EU customs duty relief for low value items does not entail handling charges for consumer parcels moving from GB into Northern Ireland. eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conten...
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
"Officials on both sides have, however, said they expect the [EU-UK Summit] to be held in October or November to dodge the summer break, the U.N. General Assembly, and the Labour Party conference." www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...
politico.eu
EU proposes Brexit reset tuition fees compromise
Negotiations between London and Brussels are continuing ahead of a summit, which has yet to be rescheduled after Britain’s change of government.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Iceland votes on 29 August on whether to revive EU membership bid; early voting starts today. Views finely balanced... www.politico.eu/article/icel...
politico.eu
Iceland opposition chief to Europe: Don’t meddle in our referendum
Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir casts the Aug. 29 vote on reopening accession talks as a question of Iceland’s hard-won sovereignty.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The examples of Gibraltar and Northern Ireland indeed show the centrality of regulatory alignment for a softer Brexit but equally they are exceptional arrangements to address very particular circumstances and so for the EU set no precedents, especially for UK as a whole. www.ft.com/content/4f88...
ft.com
Gibraltar should show Burnham a softer Brexit is the only option
The recent deal again illustrates that closer alignment with the EU offers the best of both worlds
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
“Badenoch has effectively committed the Conservatives to a policy of conflict, and possibly even rupture, with the EU…. That’s because the UK’s continued membership of the ECHR underpins every element of its post-Brexit relationship with the EU” www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Nobody in Europe knows or cares what Kemi Badenoch thinks. That’s a big mistake | Simon Nixon
The opposition leader wants to pull the UK out of the ECHR, wrecking treaties from the Good Friday agreement to the Gibraltar deal, says economics commentator Simon Nixon
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
House of Lords NI Scrutiny Committee is conducting an inquiry into Article 2 Windsor Framework. Oral evidence is still being taken. Written evidence has now been published. Includes, following UKSC 'Dillon' judgment, statement of UK government position. committees.parliament.uk/committee/76...
committees.parliament.uk
Northern Ireland Scrutiny Committee - Written evidence - Committees - UK Parliament
Written evidence submission publications for Northern Ireland Scrutiny Committee.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Continuity/change in overseeing implementation of Protocol/Windsor Framework EU-UK Joint Committee Co-Chairs: EU: 1 Šefčovič (2020-) UK: 7 Gove (2020-21) Frost (2021) Truss (2021-22) Cleverly (2022-23) Cameron (2023-24) Thomas-Symonds (2024-26) ???? (2026-) www.politico.eu/article/eu-r...
politico.eu
Britain’s Brexit Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds axed in reshuffle
The close ally of Keir Starmer was delivering the prime minister’s reset with the European Union.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Welcome news, with a reminder that there can be some considerable time between concluding negotiations with the EU (December 2023) and the EU being ready to sign the agreement (planned for September 2026)… and we still have ratification to come www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pre...
consilium.europa.eu
Council greenlights EU deal with Andorra and San Marino
Council greenlights signature and provisional application of EU agreement with Andorra and San Marino.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
"Gibraltarian officials will carry out their own passport checks. But the UK and Gibraltar accepted having Spanish border police at the airport as the price for removing all passport controls on the adjacent Gibraltar-Spain land border, a key win for [Gibraltar's] economy" www.ft.com/content/47f8...
ft.com
Spain begins Gibraltar airport checks as Brexit reaches the Rock
Troubled EU entry system will be turned on from Wednesday, with UK territory in effect becoming part of Schengen zone
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
here: bsky.app/profile/dphi...
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Polling does, yes, show that more voters in Northern Ireland (36%) than in GB (29%) support UK withdrawal from the ECHR Importantly same poll also found that more NI voters - indeed majority (58%) - oppose leaving the ECHR Figure for GB = 46% More… www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Celtic nations begin to plan for breakup of UK in event of Reform election win
Politicians brace for constitutional turmoil if Nigel Farage’s party end up in government – or even as a strong opposition
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Common Understanding (May 2025) re SPS agreement refers to UK 'contribut[ing] appropriately for a country that is not a member... to... decision-shaping in the fields covered by the obligation to dynamically align". Also: UK 'should have appropriate access to relevant [EU] agencies'.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
the obligations that the UK is taking on and be conditioned by arrangements that the EU has in place with other non-member states for the same or similar obligations. Precedent here matters. So does precedent-setting.
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
A 'decision-making' role was always going to be turned down - the autonomy of its decision-making processes is an EU red line - but 'decision-shaping' has always been envisaged. The question is what form(s) will that entail... and that/they will depend on... www.ft.com/content/c5b0...
ft.com
Brussels rebuffs UK request for ‘decision-making’ role in EU
Deal to reset post-Brexit relations with bloc has been further delayed
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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Indeed EEA is no easy option Also, EEA membership requires agreement of the participating EFTA states - and Norway has never been keen on UK joining To apply to join, it is expected that you have joined EFTA And in the EEA, EFTA states have to speak with one voice ukandeu.ac.uk/no-eea-sy-op...
ukandeu.ac.uk
No EEA-sy options - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland argues that the Lib Dems' call for the UK to join the EU single market may not survive contact with political reality.
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