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Joël Reland

@jreland.bsky.social
6.5K followers 338 following 225 posts

Senior Research Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe. Looking at UK-EU relations, regulatory divergence and European politics.

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Reposted by Joël Reland
María Ramírez @mariaramirez.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Por qué Andy Burnham puede llevar al Reino Unido de vuelta a la UE. Aqui explico las opciones. El camino es largo y tortuoso, pero el mensaje del primer ministro esta semana es un punto de inflexión. Con la ayuda de @jreland.bsky.social de @ukandeu.bsky.social www.eldiario.es/1_ceda31?utm...
eldiario.es
Por qué Andy Burnham puede llevar al Reino Unido de vuelta a la UE
El primer ministro británico promete plantear opciones para la cumbre de noviembre y no descarta convocar otro reférendum, pero los obstáculos persisten en su país y en Bruselas, que quiere sobre todo...
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I've tied together a couple of themes from this week - Burnham's speech and our new divergence tracker - to argue that the EU is becoming increasingly protectionist in its regulatory approach, and that Burnham should bear this in mind as he decides what to do next. ukandeu.ac.uk/made-in-euro...
It is important that, when Burnham comes to appraise the options for the EU relationship, he considers not just the economic impacts of Brexit so far, but also the type of institution which the EU is evolving into. And he might find it hard to escape the conclusion that, for a country on the EU’s doorstep and highly dependent on it as a trade partner, the economic costs of non-membership are becoming ever harder to bear.
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
🤔Wondering what's next for UK-EU relations?🤔 👀 Read our report from June, which sets out the different options, and includes exclusive polling on how those options are viewed by voters. ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/ten-...
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What's that Andy? You want to look at the different options for the UK's relationship with the EU? If only someone had set them out already... ukandeu.ac.uk/introducing-...
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Big day in UK politics... The new divergence tracker is out! What is most striking in this edition is the large degree of EU-led divergence over tech/digital policy.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
On holiday last week, I read A Place of Greater Safety, Hilary Mantel’s marvellous novel about the French Revolution. Because I’m a huge nerd who struggles to switch off, several passages about the use of the guillotine for public executions made me think about the economic impacts of AI...
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"Von der Leyen’s ambition to ‘to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible’ is deliciously vague: it implies some limit on the extent of possible cooperation, but does not tell us where it exactly lies." ✍️ @jreland.bsky.social on the prospect of associate membership of the EU
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
A more developed take on the new EU-Canada deal and what it means for the UK. In sum: no one knows what 'associate membership' means yet; it probably won't grant much privileged access to the single market; and it's politically much easier to do with Canada than the UK.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
A lot of excitement about this but the 'highest level possible' is a brilliantly vague phrase. And for those who see it as a potential door opening for the UK, two things to bear in mind. 1) Canada is not the UK - much further away, much less recent baggage.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Lib Dems talking about the single market again - so here's a reminder of the flaws in that plan
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Lisa O’Carroll @lisaocarroll.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
This piece well worth reading on EU-UK relations by @jreland.bsky.social of UK in a Changing Europe. Could Burnham segue from economic relations to security and defence. Easier topic for EU and for PM... and could also achieve growth through defence expansion ukandeu.ac.uk/what-will-an...
ukandeu.ac.uk
What will Andy Burnham mean for EU relations? - UK in a changing Europe
Based on what we know so far, Joël Reland considers how an incoming Andy Burnham government might approach its relationship to the European Union.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
My early attempt to analyse Burnham's approach to EU relations. "The paradox is that Burnham sounds less pro-European than Starmer, but is formulating an economic and security agenda which could in fact bring London into closer line with Brussels." ukandeu.ac.uk/what-will-an...
ukandeu.ac.uk
What will Andy Burnham mean for EU relations? - UK in a changing Europe
Based on what we know so far, Joël Reland considers how an incoming Andy Burnham government might approach its relationship to the European Union.
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Remember the Barnier Staircase? To mark the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum, we've devised the new, improved 'UKICE staircase' - here modelled by Mr Barnier himself - mapping out the UK's future EU relationship options. Read all about it here: ukandeu.ac.uk/introducing-...
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
It's ten years since the EU referendum and the UK still can't agree on what Brexit should look like. Here I argue why the Lib Dems' plan to join the single market is no silver bullet. All of the 'pain' of membership without the 'gain' of having a seat at the table. ukandeu.ac.uk/no-eea-sy-op...
ukandeu.ac.uk
No EEA-sy options - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland argues that the Lib Dems’ call for the UK to join the EU single market may not survive contact with...
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
"Brexit has revealed the UK’s regulatory instincts to be much more European than many assumed." ✍️ @jreland.bsky.social looks at Brexit and regulation, arguing that despite deregulation being a key aim of Brexit, little divergence has taken place 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-ten-y...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Brexit ten years on: regulation - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland reflects on Brexit and regulation ahead of the 10 year anniversary of the referendum.
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Simon Usherwood @simonusherwood.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Obviously a day for Brexit reports: this one from @jreland.bsky.social & @csbarnard14.bsky.social on REUL and alignment consoc.org.uk/publications...
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
New report out today with @cbarnard.bsky.social on how the UK tried - and largely failed - to take back control of regulation after Brexit. Thanks to the Constitution Society and Federal Trust for publishing. consoc.org.uk/publications...
consoc.org.uk
Brexit and Regulation - The Constitution Society
Professor Catharine Barnard and Joël Reland survey changes in regulation in the ten years since the EU referendum.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
My contribution to our 'Brexit ten years on' blog series. On how Brexit has proven the UK's regulatory instincts to, in fact, be quite European. ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-ten-y...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Brexit ten years on: regulation - UK in a changing Europe
Ahead of the ten year anniversary of the EU referendum on 23 June, UK in a Changing Europe experts have written a...
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Reposted by Joël Reland
Jill Rutter @jillongovt.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
insomniac - how about listening to me and @jreland.bsky.social @ukandeu.bsky.social talk to Alex Forsyth about how - and how far - the UK has used its post-Brexit freedoms .. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/... @instituteforgovernment.org.uk
bbc.co.uk
Politically - Ten Years After Brexit - 6: Regulatory Freedom - BBC Sounds
Has the UK made the most of its post-Brexit regulatory freedom?
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
We've got a new report out complete with a 'staircase' of options for the future UK-EU relationship. You can find a quick digest of it here: ukandeu.ac.uk/introducing-...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Introducing the UKICE staircase - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland explains the new ‘UKICE staircase’, which outlines the options available to the UK should it seek a different form of...
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
The Today programme pushing the 'NI rioters have legitimate concerns' line again... Perhaps they should reflect on the role their deeply misleading series of 'undercover' reports about migrants might have played in all this
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
This seems a very confused piece to me. 1) Cites Switzerland as the model but then calls for single market + customs union (Swiss are in neither). 2) SM + CU is basically full EU membership but with no political/legal influence. Why choose that over rejoin? giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
A ‘big bang’ reversal of Brexit is both unrealistic and unnecessary
Going back would create some big new problems but Switzerland provides an alternative model
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Loath as I am to praise the boss, this is a tour de force on the Brexit state of play
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
So we now know that EU alignment bill will be called the 'European Partnership Bill'. Key piece of info from the explanatory notes is that govt will not just get powers to align on SPS/ETS/electricity, but also on other areas in future assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a0453...
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Here's my hot take on the most lukewarm of speeches
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Starmerism a nutshell: "Incremental change won't cut it." "Britain at the heart of Europe." And then he doesn't even nudge at his EU red lines.
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Reposted by Joël Reland
Paul Adamson @padamson.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Alignment on goods, is the feeling mutual? encompass-europe.com/comment/alig... @jreland.bsky.social @ukandeu.bsky.social
encompass-europe.com
Alignment on goods, is the feeling mutual?
With the next UK-EU summit set, most likely, for this summer, it is time to start asking what topics will be on the agenda. After all, both sides will want to pull some rabbits out of the…
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
My latest bucket of cold water
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
New divergence tracker is out. If there's one clear message it's that - for a govt increasingly intent on EU alignment - there is an awful lot of divergence going on. Speaks to how hard it is to keep pace with the EU without formal mechanisms for dynamic alignment.
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James Dart @jamesdart.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
It’s a Wout damn time! 📸 Jasper Jacobs
Wout van Aert wins Paris-Roubaix
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
"Under a 10-20 year system, a worker would spend a decade or more in which their entire immigration status — and [thus] their family’s home, their children’s schooling, their right to remain — depends on maintaining the goodwill of a single employer. That is a structurally coercive relationship."
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
"But from an economic perspective, the notion of tailoring regulation is a contradiction in terms." 🎙️ @jreland.bsky.social discusses why there has been less meaningful divergence from the EU than expected since Brexit 🎧 Catch up on the episode in full 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/podcasts/the...
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Had to read this several times to be sure.. HSE consulted on making it easier to export hazardous chemicals without an importing country's consent. Only 1 in 10 agreed. Many flagged safety and env risks. HSE response? Let's do it anyway to cut 'barriers to trade' and make exports ‘more efficient’.
Nearly half of respondents disagreed with the proposal to remove the hazard
classification criteria that apply to the Designated National Authority’s consideration
of a waiver from explicit consent to import for Rotterdam Convention-listed chemicals,
with only about one in ten agreeing. A third of responses were ‘don’t know’. Other
businesses and employees tended to agree with the approach. Members of the public
overwhelmingly disagreed with the approach, and micro businesses also tended to
disagree with the approach.163. The response from industry supports HSE’s understanding that this will
remove barriers to trade, introduce more regulatory certainty, and make the process
of exporting hazardous chemicals subject to the requirements of GB PIC more
efficient. The issue of a waiver will only be considered after repeated unsuccessful
attempts to obtain a response from the importing country and will be restricted to
chemicals where there is evidence from official sources that the chemical is licensed,
registered or authorised for use there or has been used in or imported into the
importing country in the last five years.
164. HSE disagrees this will be a weakening of the regulations but instead the
amendment aligns more closely with the implementation of the UK’s obligations under
the international Rotterdam Convention. This is operated in a similar way in the EU,
in so far that EU PIC also derives from the Rotterdam Convention.
165. Next steps: The preferred course of action is that REUL Act powers would be
used to amend the waiver for explicit consent to import provision.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Here's my assessment of the govt's new memo on aligning with EU SPS rules. It tells us govt is v keen to move fast on SPS - seeing it as key to their "political argument" for closer EU relations. But the issue is a) implementation could take a while and b) voters unlikely to feel a big effect.
The government is to be credited for being clear with industry about the way ahead on the SPS deal. Early and consistent messaging will be essential for a speedy adaptation process. But for it to win the “political” argument about the benefits of closer EU ties, it will probably need to set its ambitions a lot higher.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
For all the technical detail, the politics of this statement is very interesting. It shows us just how keen the govt is to get the SPS deal done: a) by unfussily committing to align with the vast majority of EU regs and b) by clearly telling businesses to get ready to adapt.
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Steve Peers @stevepeers.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
UK government releases list of 76 EU laws that it says UK will align with under food standards treaty with EU www.gov.uk/government/n...
gov.uk
UK-EU SPS Agreement - Legislation in scope
To cut red tape and costs for importing and exporting with the EU, the UK will align with EU Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) legislation.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
For those interested, I've also written a blog summing up the report's findings ukandeu.ac.uk/alignment-wi...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Alignment with EU law is easier said than done - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland outlines the key trends in UK-EU regulatory alignment and divergence over the last five years, as exlpored in our new report 'UK-EU alignment and divergence: the road ahead'.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Big new report out from us today looking at the state of UK-EU alignment and divergence. The key findings are that 1) the UK govt is turning to greater 'alignment' with EU rules as 'Brexit benefits' from divergence have been hard to come by. But 2) alignment is much easier said than done.
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Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Six years on, geopolitics is impacting severely on Brexit choices. By @jreland.bsky.social and me ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-in-a-...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Brexit in a changing world - UK in a changing Europe
Anand Menon and Joël Reland argue that geopolitical tensions make the UK's choices post-Brexit increasingly difficult, even when it comes to regulatory divergence.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Six years after Brexit, how has the UK taken advantage of the regulatory freedoms which Brexit afforded it? I've got a new paper out looking into that question for the French High Commission for Strategy and Planning www.strategie-plan.gouv.fr/en/publicati...
strategie-plan.gouv.fr
Taking back control? How has the UK diverged from the EU since Brexit? | Haut-commissariat à la stratégie et au plan
“Le Plan has always been a forum. It publishes its own research but also channels stimulating ideas from outside, by authors who are free to defend their viewpoint. That is the purpose of Le Plan’s Co...
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Appreciate there are bigger stories right now... but our new divergence tracker shows this govt is (surprisingly) doing a better job than the Cons of diverging from EU rules (because its plans are less extreme). But it also demonstrates how slim the regulatory "benefits of Brexit" are in reality.
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
⏰ SAVE THE DATE ⏰ This January marks 6 years since the UK's departure from the EU To discuss the year ahead in UK-EU relations, join @anandmenon.bsky.social, @jreland.bsky.social, @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social & Sir Ivan Rogers 📆 Fri 30 Jan, 1pm GMT 💻 Online ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
ukandeu.ac.uk
UKICE Lunch Hour: UK-EU relations in 2026 - UK in a changing Europe
Join UK in a Changing Europe experts and former UK Permanent Representative to the EU Sir Ivan Rogers for a discussion on the future of UK-EU relations.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
My assessment of Starmer's latest EU gambit. His rhetoric on "alignment" may be getting bolder but the trade-offs remain the same. The UK will not get much closer alignment with the single market unless it accepts free movement + budget contributions. ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...
ukandeu.ac.uk
New year, same old Brexit trade-offs - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland argues that while the UK has indicated that it is keen to align more closely with the EU, the inherent tradeoffs remain the same as the EU will not allow the UK to 'cherry pick' further ac...
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
"But a customs union is far from being a silver bullet for the UK’s economic woes, and it does have some potential downsides." ✍️As debates about the UK entering into a customs union with the EU resurface, Joël Reland looks at what this would mean ukandeu.ac.uk/is-a-customs-union-wo…
ukandeu.ac.uk
Is a customs union worth it? - UK in a changing Europe
With debates about whether the UK should enter into a customs union with the EU resurfacing, Joël Reland explains what a customs union actually is and how one would, or wouldn't, benefit the UK.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
My take on the customs union debate: ukandeu.ac.uk/is-a-customs...
So, are those losses worth the gains? The widely–cited claim that a customs union would boost UK GDP by 2.2% should be taken with a pinch of salt, as this is in fact based on a scenario where the UK has ‘deep alignment on goods and services’ with the EU – an unrealistic option which is in effect the single market without freedom of movement.

Nevertheless, there would likely be a net economic benefit from a customs union. The new trade deals which the UK has signed since Brexit are estimated to add half a percent per year to UK GDP towards the end of the next decade. Meanwhile, pre-Brexit government analysis found that leaving the customs union would reduce long-run GDP by about 1%. So the (very rough) net customs union benefit might be 0.5% of GDP, or £15bn a year. A deal involving regulatory alignment on goods would provide a bigger boost.

For this Labour government, the key questions are whether those gains justify giving up control of its independent trade policy (of which it appears rather fond), and whether, if it is to take a political risk and breach its red lines, it should go for the relatively modest economic returns of a customs union, or for something more ambitious.
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
"But any revival of the multilateral order cannot mean a return to the status quo ante." ✍️ Ahead of our report on the crisis in multilateralism and what the UK and EU can do, @jreland.bsky.social reflects on some of the key challenges ⏲️ Full report out tomorrow ukandeu.ac.uk/the-crisis-o...
ukandeu.ac.uk
The crisis of multilateralism: what can Europe do? - UK in a changing Europe
Joël Reland outlines the crises that multilateral systems and institutions now face, as well as what the UK and the EU can do to uphold and advance their shared interests.
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Joël Reland @jreland.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Key points re customs union: - The UK cannot join *the* customs union. It would need to negotiate a new bilateral deal. - It would get rid of some, but not all, of the trade admin Brexit caused. - UK effectively loses control of its 'independent trade policy' ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/e...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Explainer: customs unions - UK in a changing Europe
In this explainer, Joël Reland outlines what a customs union is, how a UK-EU customs might work, and the potential pros and cons.
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
What impact has Brexit had on the UK economy? This summary of the new NBER working paper argues that "there is compelling evidence that Brexit has indeed had a large and persistent negative impact on GDP, output and productivity." Read in full👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/brexits-impa...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Brexit’s impact on the UK economy - UK in a changing Europe
Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites argue that there is evidence that Brexit has had a large and persistent negative impact on GDP, output and productivity i...
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