Reposted by Doug AnalyticsChuck🏳️🌈 @mooney039.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Panthers have the best CB duo in the National Football League GFX: @doug-analytics.bsky.social 101
Reposted by Doug AnalyticsJoseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 22/04/2026I set up a horizontal draft board using k-means clustering, based on the @overthecap.bsky.social draft chart values of @arif.bsky.social's consensus board player rankings. Top 100 players only, separated by offense and defense. 091
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 09/03/2026Isaiah Likely in 2025 Target Location - 18 targets down seams (13 rec) - 9 targets between hashes (8 rec) - 9 targets outside numbers (6 rec) Routes • In-breaking: 101 routes | 19 tgts | 12 rec • Out-breaking: 68 routes | 6 tgts | 4 rec 020
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 09/03/2026Isaiah Likely was one of the most used players in motion last season. • 5th highest rate of snaps in pre-snap motion • 19th highest rate of snaps in motion at the snap 030
Reposted by Doug AnalyticsSeth Walder @sethwalder.bsky.social · 30/01/2026I loved this idea. And so (with Bryan's blessing)... darnold-meter.com 710525
Reposted by Doug AnalyticsJoseph Hefner @josephjefe.bsky.social · 23/01/2026You should definitely cut Sexy Dexy for the $20M in post-June 1st savings. Chiefs can pick him up. Somehow. 121
Reposted by Doug AnalyticsSebastian Carl @mrcaseb.com · 09/01/2026-- 2025 NFL 🏈 Playoff Geo-Rooting Map -- Geo-Rooting is the concept of rooting for the geographically closest team to the current location. This map shows closest team (stadium location) by county in contiguous U.S. Enjoy the playoffs! 2164
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 05/01/2026Number of games per season with 0 TDs and 5 TDs (2000–2025) Congrats to the Jets on 10 straight seasons with at least 2 games without a TD. Sorry to the Saints for ending a 19-year streak of scoring 5+ TDs in at least one game per season. 010
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 04/01/2026With the Giants win over the Cowboys, they will now pick between #3-#6 depending on the outcomes of the Cardinals, Jets, and Commanders games. • All 3 of ARI, NYJ, WAS win: #3 pick • 2 of those win: #4 pick • 1 of those win: #5 pick • All 3 lose: #6 pick 030
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 30/12/2025With the Falcons’ win, the Jets are eliminated from the #1 pick. The #1 pick will belong to either the Raiders or Giants. 030
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 29/12/2025The Jets need all of the following to clinch the #1 pick: LAR beat ATL (tonight) BUF beat NYJ NYG beat DAL LV beat KC CLE beat CIN LAC beat DEN CHI beat DET NE beat MIA TEN beat JAX 040
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 29/12/2025NYG Draft Pick Scenarios #1: NYG lose, LV win, 2+ of SEA/CLE/ATL/CHI win #2: NYG lose, LV lose Other 3/4 win teams: NYJ, TEN, ARI, CLE, WAS If NYG win: #2: all 5 of those teams also win #3: 4 win #4: 3 win #5: 2 win #6: 1 wins #7: all lose 120
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 29/12/2025QB EPA/Play Rankings 1) Brock Purdy: +0.33 2) Drake Maye: +0.31 3) Jordan Love: +0.28 40) Shedeur Sanders: -0.18 000
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 24/12/2025How often do defenses disguise who’s rushing the QB and who’s dropping into coverage? 010
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 24/12/2025Number of Runs Between Play-Action Giants: • Weeks 1-10 (Daboll): 2.6 runs (13th) • Weeks 11-16 (Kafka): 3.8 runs (30th) Data: @ftnfantasy.com 081
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 24/12/2025Week 17 Tank Rooting Guide How to read: find your team's column and root for each logo to win Example: a Browns win would be 0.5 picks better for the Giants’ tank than a Browns loss. 041
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 24/12/2025Week 17 Draft Implications How a win or loss impacts each team’s average draft pick 042
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 24/12/2025A few SOS notes: • The Giants are guaranteed to have the SOS tiebreaker over the Titans AND Cardinals • The Browns are guaranteed to have the SOS tiebreaker over the Giants A Giants loss next week locks their worst possible pick at #4 010
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 24/12/2025The Giants clinch the #1 pick in Week 17 if all three occur: 1) NYG lose to LV (2025 Mega Tank Bowl) 2) CLE beats PIT 3a) NYJ beats NE OR 3b) At least 7 points of the following: BUF win (4 points) BAL win (2 points) DAL w (all remaining w = 1 point) DEN w HOU w JAX w MIA w CAR w CIN w ATL w 240
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 22/12/2025The “loser” of the Giants-Raiders game gets the 1st pick ~68% of the time 151
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 22/12/2025Updated Draft Pick Probabilities before MNF 040
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 22/12/2025A few Draft SOS notes: • The Giants are guaranteed to have the SOS tiebreaker over the Titans AND Cardinals • The Browns are guaranteed to have the SOS tiebreaker over the Giants A Giants loss next week locks their worst possible pick at #4 010
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 17/12/2025Looking specifically at the MIN-NYG game for the Giants tank… NYG loss: • NYG get #1 pick: 29.0% • NYG get top 5 pick: 92.3% • avg NYG pick: 2.9 NYG win: • NYG get #1 pick: 5.8% • NYG get top 5 pick: 58.2% • avg NYG pick: 5.0 010
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 17/12/2025Week 16 Tank Rooting Guide Based on 40,000 rest-of-season simulations per Week 16 game, fixing each possible outcome. 020
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 17/12/2025There is a small path where the Giants lose out and lose the SOS tiebreaker to a 2–15 Titans team. Giants can guarantee the #1 pick if they lose out with these results this week: • 1 win from LAC/JAX/HOU/IND + 1 other win from LAC/JAX/HOU/IND/CLE/ARI/PIT OR • Wins from CLE, ARI, and PIT 020
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 10/12/2025Week 15 Tank Rooting Guide Find your tanking team's column and root for each logo to win 001
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 08/12/2025Draft Pick Probabilities Raiders take the top spot! 020
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 04/12/2025Week 14 Tank Rooting Guide "Find your tanking team's column and root for each logo to win" 142
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 14/11/2025Strength of Schedule Comparison Games against Top 10 teams* • Patriots: 2 (Bills x2) • Texans: 8 Games against Bottom 10 teams* • Patriots: 10 • Texans: 4 *based on 10k season simulations 070
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 14/11/2025Rushing Success Rates (weeks 1-10) The Rams run Outside Zone on just 20% of their rushes (21st most) but are successful on 65%, the highest success rate for any team by 18%(!) (2nd: DEN — 47%). Data: @ftnfantasy.com 163
Reposted by Doug AnalyticsBernd Buchmasser @berndbuchmasser.bsky.social · 02/11/2025Sunday's game between the Patriots and Falcons will be an interior pressure showdown featuring the top three defensive tackles in pressure rate (via @doug-analytics.bsky.social). 071
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 27/10/2025The Giants defense played an even mix of man and zone coverage vs Jalen Hurts. Hurts vs man: • 9/10 • 126 yards • 4 TDs • +1.55 EPA/pass • 9.6 yards average depth of completion Hurts vs zone: • 6/10 • 53 yards • -0.15 EPA/pass • 3.1 yards average depth of completion 021
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 27/10/2025Eagles’ designed run game vs the Giants: • 27 rushes (none on 3rd down) • 258 yards (most in any game this season) • +0.49 EPA/rush (2nd-highest this season) • 66.7% success (2nd-highest this season) 031
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 27/10/2025There have been 7 plays this season where an offense ran the ball with 26+ yards to go for a first down. Only 2 were successful by EPA. Both were against the Giants defense. 041
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 24/10/2025How often do defenses rush or drop unexpected players? (weeks 1-7) If I were a defensive coordinator I would simply be in the top right 080
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 24/10/2025Rate and EPA/Play for QBs out of the pocket • Joe Flacco does not like being outside the pocket • Dart & Maye with some elite QBs 👀 Data: @ftnfantasy.com 273
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 23/10/2025Average # of Pass Rushers (by pre-snap alignment) The Chiefs average 4.97 pass rushers per play and send a DB every ~6 plays, both the highest rates in the league. 051
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 23/10/2025Rushing Success Rates (Weeks 1–7) League average success rates: • Man/Duo — 41.2% • Outside Zone — 37.6% • Inside Zone — 38.9% • Power — 38.4% • Counter — 43.1% • QB Sneak — 72.1% Data: @ftnfantasy.com 051
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 22/10/2025Time to Throw DEEP and SHORT (weeks 1-7 pre-MNF) Every QB has a higher average Time to Throw on attempts 20+ air yards than <10 air yards. Caleb Williams TTT • 20+ air yards: 4.60s • <10 air yards: 2.72s 071
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 09/10/2025Giants Big 4 Snap Combinations (weeks 1-5) • All 4 together: 25% of snaps • At least 3 of 4: 69% • At least 2 of 4: 93% Burns, Thibodeaux, Carter - All 3 on field: 46% pressure rate - 2 of 3 on field: 32% 000
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 09/10/2025The Eagles have reached the RedZone on just 24.5% of drives (26th), but have scored a TD on all but one of those trips (92.3%, 1st) The Giants have reached the RedZone on 37.3% of drives (8th), but have scored a TD on only 31.6% of those trips (32nd) 162
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 09/10/2025Play-Action % & Motion at Snap % (weeks 1-5) Some good offenses in the top right Data charted by @ftnfantasy.com 063
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 09/10/2025Defensive Line Stunts NYG usage (pressure % with stunts): • Week 1: 3% (0%) • Week 2: 7% (25%) • Week 3: 10% (50%) • Week 4: 23% (70%!) • Week 5: 16% (0%) 041
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 09/10/2025Offensive Rushing Success Rates (broken down by run concept) Klayton Adams must be pretty good huh Run concepts charted by @ftnfantasy.com 152
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 08/10/2025Receiving Yards by Target Location Puka Nacua leads the NFL in receiving yards down the seams (435), and only 3 WRs have more total receiving yards. 030
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 08/10/2025Based on NGS player tracking at handoff, the Eagles have the lowest expected rushing yards per carry in the NFL (3.18 xYPC). Defenses have stacked the box with 8+ defenders on 30.3% of their runs, 4th highest in the league. The Giants average 6.1 men in the box (2nd fewest) 010
Doug Analytics @doug-analytics.bsky.social · 08/10/2025Despite his rate of <10 air yard attempts dropping each week, Jalen Hurts has still targeted receivers under 10 air yards at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL this season (72%). The Giants defense has allowed the 4th fewest yards/attempt on passes under 10 air yards. 010
