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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

While hardly anyone’s paying attention, a big geopolitical game is unfolding and, once again, oil is right at the center of it. A new global oil war has started, and Russia, more than anyone, really can’t afford to lose. stationzero.substack.com/p/a-chaotic-...

stationzero.substack.com

A Chaotic Oil War Has Begun – And It’s a Geopolitical Mess

Money, oil and geopolitics - what more can you want.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

Since Trump launched his trade war, oil prices have plunged and so far failed to recover. And that’s a major problem for Moscow - in fact it might be the most serious threat to its economy since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. A few observations here: stationzero.substack.com/p/the-bigges...

stationzero.substack.com

The Biggest Threat to Russian Economy So Far

Plus: Russian Covert Ops Are Changing | China's Military Purges

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

When Trump launched his trade war, he found China that was well prepared, with a clear strategy and that doesn't have to worry about public opinion. In a real war, China would enjoy the exact same advantages as well - and America could find itself caught off guard again. A few observations:

stationzero.substack.com

Trump's Trade War Shows How a Real U.S.-China War Might Unfold

Deep Dive: The Trade War Showed Where the U.S. Might Falter in a Real War

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Díky @jeberle.bsky.social! Snažil jsem se k tomu přistupovat co nejvíc sebekriticky, viz úryvek:

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 03/03/2025

Europe’s emergency meeting on Ukraine feels - unfortunately - pretty underwhelming. Ukraine already rejected the French proposal of a month-long ceasefire and UK insists on "strong US backing" for any peace deal, but the US isn’t likely to strongly back anything. Not exactly a turning point.

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Reposted by Dominik Presl

Max Bergmann @maxbergmann.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Europe's main problem is that even if you consider Trump a "deal maker," he's just not that interested in deals w/ Europe. It's not a priority. European concerns hardly register in Washington. If Europe wants that to change it will have to show Moscow/DC it can't be ignored. Until then, well 🤷

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

China is building a massive new wartime military command—another sign it’s preparing for a potential Taiwan conflict. 🛰️ Satellite imagery has already revealed: - A replica of Taiwan’s Presidential Palace for training - A new fleet of invasion barges

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

@michaelkofman.bsky.social on Russian military struggles in Ukraine. Full episode: link in the comments ⬇️

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

I had the privilege of speaking with @michaelkofman.bsky.social for my latest podcast episode. We discussed the state of Russia’s military, how it has evolved since the early days of the Ukraine war, and what's next. You can watch it here: youtu.be/Vj6oiILlJrY

youtu.be

The War Is Slowly Killing Russia’s Military. Here’s How Long They’ll Need to Recover | Mike Kofman

YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast

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Reposted by Dominik Presl

Lennart Maschmeyer @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Had a great time talking cyber warfare, subversion, and sabotage with @dompresl.bsky.social of the Decoding Geopolitics Podcast last month, now out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=tifA...

youtube.com

How Cyber Warfare Really Works? Lessons from Ukraine-Russia War | Ep. 45 Lennart Maschmeyer

YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

@justin-br0nk.bsky.social on why Elon Musk's criticism of the F-35 is misguided and inaccurate, why drones are not replacing fighter jets anytime soon and why F-16s did not have the impact that many expected in the latest episode of Decoding Geopolitics: youtu.be/X-A_aF7lpm4

youtu.be

F-35 Critics Are Completely Wrong. F-16s for Ukraine Were Over-Hyped. | Ep. 44 Prof. Justin Bronk

YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast

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Reposted by Dominik Presl

Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

🎙️ Podcast! I joined Dominik Presl on Decoding Geopolitics to talk about what just happened in Syria, why it happened, what happens next, and why I don’t really know the answer to any of those questions. Very good conversation! 🎧 👉 youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o @dompresl.bsky.social

youtu.be

Syria Expert: 'Things Could Get Much Worse. Here’s Who the Real Winner Is.' | Ep. 43 Aron Lund

YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

I spoke with the amazing @aronlund.bsky.social on Decoding Geopolitics podcast in a deep dive about what actually happened in Syria, what it means for all the key actors and what might happen next. youtu.be/llCrHnW9P4o

youtu.be

Syria Expert: 'Things Could Get Much Worse. Here’s Who the Real Winner Is.' | Ep. 43 Aron Lund

YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

Bernie Sanders: "But while so many Americans are struggling to get by, the United States is spending record-breaking amounts of money on the military." Well, not really: relative to GDP, U.S. spending on defense is actually at one of the lowest points since the 1930s.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 08/12/2024

I had a chance to talk with @eliotacohen.bsky.social about why most analysts failed to predict how the Ukraine war would turn out following Russia's invasion - a topic he recently wrote an extremely interesting report on with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social. Check it out! youtu.be/t7gg0QomgAA

youtu.be

Why Experts Failed to Predict Russia's Invasion of Ukraine? | Ep. 42 Eliot Cohen

YouTube video by Decoding Geopolitics Podcast

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 07/12/2024

He said: “We now face much, much more aggression from nation states. In effect, we had the 20 to 30-year holiday from that kind of big player, sophisticated states in serious conflict with each other. It’s back, I’m afraid.”

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

One thing that lacks attention: all of this is only possible because Romanian president declassified findings of their intelligence agencies and did so at an unprecedented scope and pace. Declassification and transparency seem like one of the most effective ways of fighting a foreign influence.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

"Authorities in Romania have revealed details of what appears to be a major attempt to interfere in the country’s presidential elections using the social media platform TikTok, and with a series of cyber-attacks." www.bbc.com/news/article...

bbc.com

Romania hit by major election influence campaign and Russian cyber-attacks

Romania's intelligence service reveals details of what it says is an attempt from abroad to meddle in the country's presidential election.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

More importantly, it would also run out of ammo in about 10 days according to UK military’s own wargaming. And the same (or worse) is true for almost any European military.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

With Britain out and France and Germany distracted, Europe is lacking a proper leadership more than ever.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

“This two-way, mutually beneficial trade meant that cash rich cocaine kingpins simultaneously helped Russian cyber criminals and elites to launder stolen crypto and access cash while evading western sanctions.”

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

The thing is that you can also technically join peace talks but without any intention to actually ever agree on a peace deal - and maintain the pressure in the meantime.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

This is will be a tricky paradox for Trump and his new administration which wants to both lower oil prices and cut off Iran's oil revenue. Squeezing Iran's oil exports means less money for Iran but it also means higher oil prices (which also helps Russia at the same time). Hard one to solve.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

“We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support will dry up’. "And you tell Putin, ‘He’s got to come to the table and if you don’t, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field’ www.politico.eu/article/ukra...

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

And they said that globalization was dead.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

The question is how much can Russia actually send to Syria without undermining its own capabilities in Ukraine.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Brexit essentially replaced EU immigration with a lot more of non-EU immigration. Not sure if that was the result that Brexit voters were looking for.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

With all eyes on Russia, Iran is going through an economic crisis of its own. Power blackouts, wage delays, inlation, 200% increase in defense spending - and Trump’s “maximum pressure” on the horizon. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

al-monitor.com

Iran's businesses bear brunt of daily power blackouts

Baristas and servers linger outside a cafe in Tehran, smoking and chatting, as scheduled daytime power cuts due to energy shortages plunge businesses in Iran's capital into the dark."When the power is...

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Chinese ship suspected of cutting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea looks to be stuck between Danish and Swedish territorial waters, unable to leave international waters without being apprehended. www.newsweek.com/chinese-ship...

newsweek.com

Satellite image shows Chinese ship suspected of sabotage in "NATO lake"

The Chinese-flagged Yi Peng 3 should "move towards Swedish waters," Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Tuesday.

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Reposted by Dominik Presl

Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Weaker ruble benefits export and it also makes it easier to finance defence spending (e.g. soldier salaries), but it doesn’t look good and it probably drives up inflation. But it’s a double edged sword and viewing it just from one perspective is not a great analytical take.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

The ruble keeps falling throughout the day but I’d caution against calling this a sign of an “imminent collapse”. It looks to be at least partially a result of an intentional policy. A weaker ruble hurts Russian purchasing power but in the short term it has its advantages.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Ruble keeps finding a new bottom. It looks like Russia stopped trying to prop it up and resigned to letting it drop.

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Dominik Presl @dompresl.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Feels like this still didn’t receive as much attention as it should. Romania has been quietly following Poland in committing to a serious military build-up- if it completely reverses course, it’ll be a huge blow to NATO.

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