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@deadinlongrun.bsky.social
128 followers 156 following 113 posts

Not Dead Yet Citizen Science in the other place

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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Not saying this is ok, but wonder if 1. Dramatic decline in gas generation (go batteries!) in the NEM means now excess gas gen capacity Qld, NSW 2. Dalby is close to gas fields/gas-generators/gas pipeline and solar under construction 3. Gas turbines are one global constraint, chips another
Infrastructure map of Dalby and nearby gas fields, pipeline and gas power generator stations.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Happy to find lots of these in full bloom up the back of my garden. Australian tongue #orchid (Dendrobium linguiforme, syn. Dockrillia linguiformis). #nature
Australian tongue orchid (Dendrobium linguiforme, syn. Dockrillia linguiformis).
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Good In 2025 more diesel/petrol cars added to the national fleet than BEV/EV. 2026 might finally flip that. Half of vehicles are over 10 years old. None are EV's. Serious about still rising transport emissions? Tackle the long tail of older cars in the national fleet. Cash4Clunkers MkII anyone
In January 2025, 49% of Australia's 20.3 million registered passenger and light commercial vehicles were more than 10 years old. The chart counts those vehicles by year of manufacture from 1980 to 2024, split by fuel type, with a line at the median year of 2015. Hybrid and electric vehicles appear mainly in the bars from 2019 onward and make up 4.7% of the fleet.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I'd start with head of model training/testing. They set the prompts/defined the hurdles to models had to meet, analyzed the results, looked at the logs. The logs are large (see the hugging face incident investigation) but not impossible. For Open AI to inform the government they know the source.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
So agree. The only way I could get agents to behave and not optimize to the immediate prompt versus a longer term target, was to encode module structure and architecture as rules (layers, coupling/cohesion, deep v.shallow modules..), and have builds only pass if the architecture rules also passed.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Energy transition in NSW. What industry is going to soak up all that unused gas generating capacity. #auspol #AI
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Good But in 2025 more diesel/petrol cars added to the national fleet than BEV/EV - 2206 might finally flip that. Half the cars on the registered are over 10 years old. None of them are EV's. Serious about transport emissions - need tackle the long tail and the older cars in the national fleet.
In January 2025, 49% of Australia's 20.3 million registered passenger and light commercial vehicles were more than 10 years old. The chart counts those vehicles by year of manufacture from 1980 to 2024, split by fuel type, with a line at the median year of 2015. Hybrid and electric vehicles appear mainly in the bars from 2019 onward and make up 4.7% of the fleet.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This cannot be good... Strong, Fast and Early #elnino #climate
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
From the FT article ... "Morgan Stanley measured the gap earlier this week by estimating the shortfall in available power, concluding that more than half of the GPU servers sold between 2026 and 2028 might not have anywhere to be plugged in."
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
And see this ... bsky.app/profile/alph...
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I so agree. This is a also **now** problem. Not a future problem in when GPU's are finally available, when 1GW gas generators are delivered (~2030?), when you upgrade transmission networks to get actual power to the DC. Did I mention approvals or IPO's...
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Feels LNG boomish. Jobs in the capital construction phase. Little employment in the operations phase. Tax deductions going overseas to AI majors to pay licenses/royalties on the models? Little tax paid here? Can we even get the GPU's given the delays in construction overseas.
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Dash Nehring @punningstunts.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
There's a part in the report about job creation: "Industry estimates suggest that data centre construction has directly and indirectly supported more than 9,000 jobs to date and this could grow by an additional 18,930 jobs through to 2030". except 2/3 of those jobs are in the buildout phase.
a chart showing the jobs created by data centre construction. it shows 4,190 direct and 4,940 indirect jobs from data centre construction. of these, 2980 direct and 3690 indirect jobs are attributed to build out.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Recent debate about immigration and super has little discussion about the dependency ratio - workers to old-age/youth. Also called the demographic window - countries within it have higher birth rates, and potential for economic growth. Australia exited 10 years ago. #IntergenerationalReport
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Still awaiting first sound just north of you. Days like today, swimming way out in the ocean, hearing the 1st Koels on the Norfolk Pines summer is on the way. Next up the channel-billed cuckoo's .. such melodius delights at 2am.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Mmmm ... must find a use for all that unused gas generation capacity now that batteries taking over
In New South Wales, cumulative battery discharge reached 845 GWh by 1 September 2026, more than double the 282 GWh discharged across the whole of 2025. Over the same year-to-date window, combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) generated 150 GWh and open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) 479 GWh. At the equivalent point in 2025, battery output stood below both gas technologies, so the crossover occurred within 2026.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
And the global publishers appear not that interested in defending their own author's rights either. Worse if you self-publish, or went with a small publishing house.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I agree I'm a party to Anthropic Copyright case which used stolen online books to train models * prompting shows it knows my book * the $ from settlement are small cf. to lost royalties, why buy the book anymore * your rights and revenue will be gone * not cost effective to mount legal challenge
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Nature is always inspiration .... stitching on this tree
Eucalyptus haemastoma, commonly known as scribbly gum,[2] is a species of tree that is endemic to the Sydney region. It has white or silvery grey bark, lance-shaped or curved adult leaves, flower buds in groups of between nine and fifteen, white flowers and conical or hemispherical fruit. It is one of several eucalypts with prominent and differing insect scribbles in the bark, caused by the larvae of Ogmograptis,
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Yesterday in Sydney Not the hottest September day which was 34.6 in 2023 but close. Still early in September too. #climate #elnino
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AuInData @auindata.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Fast and early, some El Niño take a while to get going - this one isn't.
As of 30 August 2026, the Relative Niño 3.4 index stands at +2.45°C, more than double the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) +0.8°C El Niño declaration threshold. The current episode is measured from a La Niña low of −1.46°C on 2 February 2025, making the total rise 3.91°C over twenty months. The chart places that trajectory against every BOM-declared event since 1902, aligned so each event sits at the same point in its own calendar.
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AuInData @auindata.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Sea surface temp. is one factor in declaring an El Niño. Compared to prior El Niño's, this one is coming on fast and early.
As of 30 August 2026, the Relative Niño 3.4 index stands at +2.45°C, more than double the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) +0.8°C El Niño declaration threshold. The current episode is measured from a La Niña low of −1.46°C on 2 February 2025, making the total rise 3.91°C over twenty months. The chart places that trajectory against every BOM-declared event since 1902, aligned so each event sits at the same point in its own calenda
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Cynical me wonders if this is about finding ways to keep gas-generators going as peaking gen-mix changes significantly. There are powers (not energy) at play here. And, I still can't fathom new DCs will do with all capacity proposed. Model training, longer context & ever larger models, slop?
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Energy Market in transition. 12 months ago, NSW cumulative batter discharge was less than both types of gas generation. Today is greater than both combined. Battery is pushing out high priced "gas-peakers" to help lower the cost we pay - especially at evening peaks. #auspol
In New South Wales, cumulative battery discharge reached 810 GWh by 26 August 2026, more than double the 282 GWh discharged across the whole of 2025. Over the same year-to-date window, combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) generated 138 GWh and open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) 471 GWh. At the equivalent point in 2025, battery output stood below both gas technologies
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
As a claimant on this class action - this is a good article. Claude does summarise my book back to me - not exactly - but quotes, outlines and links to related books. Claude clearly "knows" the book. ------- Gift article from The New York Times. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/24/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Even Millions of Stolen Books Cannot Satisfy Ravenous A.I. Chatbots (Gift Article)
The model collapse scenario threatens to wipe out whatever gains chatbots like Claude enjoyed from being trained on books in the first place.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
4 years of NAPLAN results for reading, writing and numeracy for years 3,5,7,9. Each small line in a stack is a state. NT generally worse, but South Australian relatively better in remote/very remote regions One national #NAPLAN number really hides the de-averaged results.
Across the twelve combinations of year level and subject, 66.3% of Australian students reached Strong or above in 2026. The same figure was 66.5% in 2023, 66.7% in 2024 and 67.2% in 2025. Four years of testing under the current proficiency scale have moved the national result by 0.2 percentage points. About a third of students sit below Strong in any given year.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
And got there faster from La Nina than almost all other El Nino events
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Not so sure it will take so long in some arenas. Especially the new vectors to attack modern physical and information infrastructure that underpins society. bsky.app/profile/emol...
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Pretty sure this is not good #climate #elnino
As of 2 August 2026, the Relative Niño 3.4 index stands at +2.02°C, more than double the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) +0.8°C El Niño declaration threshold. The current episode is measured from a La Niña low of −1.46°C on 2 February 2025, making the total rise 3.48°C over eighteen months. The chart places that trajectory against every BOM-declared event since 1902, aligned so each event sits at the same point in its own calendar.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
2026 El Nino is coming on fast and early. One of fastest changes from La Nina to El Nino conditions. #ElNino #climate
As of 26 July 2026, the Relative Niño 3.4 index stands at +1.94°C — more than double the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) +0.8°C El Niño declaration threshold, and 3.21°C above the La Niña low of January 2025 from which the current episode is measured. Nineteen months into that rise, 2026 is level with 1902–03, the highest any trajectory has reached at this point in its calendar. Of the 25 events in the record with a comparable reading at 19 months, none is above it.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Dramatic change in battery generation in NSW as it is already ahead of last years total and outpace peaking gas as source of generation.
In New South Wales, cumulative battery discharge reached 501 GWh in the first six months of 2026 — already more than the 282 GWh discharged across the whole of 2025, with almost half the year still to run. Battery discharge has also overtaken both gas technologies it is compared against over the same year-to-date window: 133 GWh for combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and 391 GWh for open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT). A year earlier, at the equivalent point in 2025, battery output was a fraction of either gas technology's — this shift emerged within 2026 itself, not as a gradual multi-year trend.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
El Nino - slow to get going but now rising rapidly
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AuInData @auindata.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Record warm June
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
I swim in the ocean every day and of course worry about sharks. I see the drum-lines just offshore and inspection boat each morning Data shows in Sydney its a likely a Dusky or Bronzie. Whites are around - but were just 18 of over 500 catches from Bondi to Barrenjoey
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
I swim in the ocean every day and of course worry about sharks. I see the drum-lines just offshore and inspection boat each morning Data shows in Sydney its a likely a Dusky or Bronzie. Whites are around - but were just 18 of over 500 catches from Bondi to Barrenjoey
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Good article... Reminded me of Ben Collins speech on receipt of 2023 Walter Cronkite Award (on youtube) "splitting the difference halfway between the lies pushed by powerful people leaves you telling half of the truth"
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Had canned black cherries from living in USA that survived three country moves and 15 years later .. yeah… nah
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Call me cynical, but protesting terrestrial DC’s is great way to increase valuations for a company seeking capital to locate them off planet
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Thanks Pity Aaron isn’t here more
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
From Australia’s fire season from hell in 2019
Cumulative hectares burnt by fire season
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Oh the cameos - JDV, SBF?, JensenH?
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
The nuance may be that much of our petrol, diesel, jet fuel comes from countries (South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia...) that have high % of crude refinery feedstock coming though Strait of Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Also may be timing of certain societal event. When we tracked such things in NSW, back to school after holidays, often led to increases to cases amongst young people first for reasons you note. Would precede increase in other age groups.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
So interesting - thanks
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Maybe, but the question is how significantly exposed to gulf disruptions are the countries that refine most of Au's Petrol, Diesel, Jet Fuel. Their exposure is higher++ than "20% of global supply". They may take political decision where to supply refined products (if any) beyond domestic needs.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Never do it per hour - value price it. Think hard of the value ($, risk, time) at stake, and price accordingly. If you have to go time-based, use days, and budget for equal amounts for gathering data, writing report, reading it back and making changes.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
I humbly offer exhibit A
Monthly sea surface temperature since 1900 v baseline 1961-1990. Since 2000 ~0.5C above baseline, last few years peaks above 1.0C
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Had exactly the same thought. Grown up words and reasoned logic. The full speech and Q&A worth a listen www.youtube.com/watch?v=uStu...
youtube.com
PM Mark Carney speaks at World Economic Forum in Davos – January 20, 2026
YouTube video by cpac
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Can you imagine our leadership addressing the the broader issues like the Canadian PM does at Davos (Warning grown up words in this talk) www.youtube.com/watch?v=uStu...
youtube.com
PM Mark Carney speaks at World Economic Forum in Davos – January 20, 2026
YouTube video by cpac
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Yep His version of God Only Knows by beach boys with all the harmony parts did me in
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