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@deadinlongrun.bsky.social
128 followers 155 following 112 posts

Not Dead Yet Citizen Science in the other place

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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 5h
Happy to find lots of these in full bloom up the back of my garden. Australian tongue #orchid (Dendrobium linguiforme, syn. Dockrillia linguiformis). #nature
Australian tongue orchid (Dendrobium linguiforme, syn. Dockrillia linguiformis).
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 6h
Good In 2025 more diesel/petrol cars added to the national fleet than BEV/EV. 2026 might finally flip that. Half of vehicles are over 10 years old. None are EV's. Serious about still rising transport emissions? Tackle the long tail of older cars in the national fleet. Cash4Clunkers MkII anyone
In January 2025, 49% of Australia's 20.3 million registered passenger and light commercial vehicles were more than 10 years old. The chart counts those vehicles by year of manufacture from 1980 to 2024, split by fuel type, with a line at the median year of 2015. Hybrid and electric vehicles appear mainly in the bars from 2019 onward and make up 4.7% of the fleet.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Energy transition in NSW. What industry is going to soak up all that unused gas generating capacity. #auspol #AI
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Good But in 2025 more diesel/petrol cars added to the national fleet than BEV/EV - 2206 might finally flip that. Half the cars on the registered are over 10 years old. None of them are EV's. Serious about transport emissions - need tackle the long tail and the older cars in the national fleet.
In January 2025, 49% of Australia's 20.3 million registered passenger and light commercial vehicles were more than 10 years old. The chart counts those vehicles by year of manufacture from 1980 to 2024, split by fuel type, with a line at the median year of 2015. Hybrid and electric vehicles appear mainly in the bars from 2019 onward and make up 4.7% of the fleet.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This cannot be good... Strong, Fast and Early #elnino #climate
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I so agree. This is a also **now** problem. Not a future problem in when GPU's are finally available, when 1GW gas generators are delivered (~2030?), when you upgrade transmission networks to get actual power to the DC. Did I mention approvals or IPO's...
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Feels LNG boomish. Jobs in the capital construction phase. Little employment in the operations phase. Tax deductions going overseas to AI majors to pay licenses/royalties on the models? Little tax paid here? Can we even get the GPU's given the delays in construction overseas.
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Dash Nehring @punningstunts.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
There's a part in the report about job creation: "Industry estimates suggest that data centre construction has directly and indirectly supported more than 9,000 jobs to date and this could grow by an additional 18,930 jobs through to 2030". except 2/3 of those jobs are in the buildout phase.
a chart showing the jobs created by data centre construction. it shows 4,190 direct and 4,940 indirect jobs from data centre construction. of these, 2980 direct and 3690 indirect jobs are attributed to build out.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Recent debate about immigration and super has little discussion about the dependency ratio - workers to old-age/youth. Also called the demographic window - countries within it have higher birth rates, and potential for economic growth. Australia exited 10 years ago. #IntergenerationalReport
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Mmmm ... must find a use for all that unused gas generation capacity now that batteries taking over
In New South Wales, cumulative battery discharge reached 845 GWh by 1 September 2026, more than double the 282 GWh discharged across the whole of 2025. Over the same year-to-date window, combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) generated 150 GWh and open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) 479 GWh. At the equivalent point in 2025, battery output stood below both gas technologies, so the crossover occurred within 2026.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I agree I'm a party to Anthropic Copyright case which used stolen online books to train models * prompting shows it knows my book * the $ from settlement are small cf. to lost royalties, why buy the book anymore * your rights and revenue will be gone * not cost effective to mount legal challenge
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Yesterday in Sydney Not the hottest September day which was 34.6 in 2023 but close. Still early in September too. #climate #elnino
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AuInData @auindata.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Fast and early, some El Niño take a while to get going - this one isn't.
As of 30 August 2026, the Relative Niño 3.4 index stands at +2.45°C, more than double the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) +0.8°C El Niño declaration threshold. The current episode is measured from a La Niña low of −1.46°C on 2 February 2025, making the total rise 3.91°C over twenty months. The chart places that trajectory against every BOM-declared event since 1902, aligned so each event sits at the same point in its own calendar.
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AuInData @auindata.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Sea surface temp. is one factor in declaring an El Niño. Compared to prior El Niño's, this one is coming on fast and early.
As of 30 August 2026, the Relative Niño 3.4 index stands at +2.45°C, more than double the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) +0.8°C El Niño declaration threshold. The current episode is measured from a La Niña low of −1.46°C on 2 February 2025, making the total rise 3.91°C over twenty months. The chart places that trajectory against every BOM-declared event since 1902, aligned so each event sits at the same point in its own calenda
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Energy Market in transition. 12 months ago, NSW cumulative batter discharge was less than both types of gas generation. Today is greater than both combined. Battery is pushing out high priced "gas-peakers" to help lower the cost we pay - especially at evening peaks. #auspol
In New South Wales, cumulative battery discharge reached 810 GWh by 26 August 2026, more than double the 282 GWh discharged across the whole of 2025. Over the same year-to-date window, combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) generated 138 GWh and open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) 471 GWh. At the equivalent point in 2025, battery output stood below both gas technologies
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
As a claimant on this class action - this is a good article. Claude does summarise my book back to me - not exactly - but quotes, outlines and links to related books. Claude clearly "knows" the book. ------- Gift article from The New York Times. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/24/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Even Millions of Stolen Books Cannot Satisfy Ravenous A.I. Chatbots (Gift Article)
The model collapse scenario threatens to wipe out whatever gains chatbots like Claude enjoyed from being trained on books in the first place.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Pretty sure this is not good #climate #elnino
As of 2 August 2026, the Relative Niño 3.4 index stands at +2.02°C, more than double the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) +0.8°C El Niño declaration threshold. The current episode is measured from a La Niña low of −1.46°C on 2 February 2025, making the total rise 3.48°C over eighteen months. The chart places that trajectory against every BOM-declared event since 1902, aligned so each event sits at the same point in its own calendar.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
2026 El Nino is coming on fast and early. One of fastest changes from La Nina to El Nino conditions. #ElNino #climate
As of 26 July 2026, the Relative Niño 3.4 index stands at +1.94°C — more than double the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) +0.8°C El Niño declaration threshold, and 3.21°C above the La Niña low of January 2025 from which the current episode is measured. Nineteen months into that rise, 2026 is level with 1902–03, the highest any trajectory has reached at this point in its calendar. Of the 25 events in the record with a comparable reading at 19 months, none is above it.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Dramatic change in battery generation in NSW as it is already ahead of last years total and outpace peaking gas as source of generation.
In New South Wales, cumulative battery discharge reached 501 GWh in the first six months of 2026 — already more than the 282 GWh discharged across the whole of 2025, with almost half the year still to run. Battery discharge has also overtaken both gas technologies it is compared against over the same year-to-date window: 133 GWh for combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and 391 GWh for open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT). A year earlier, at the equivalent point in 2025, battery output was a fraction of either gas technology's — this shift emerged within 2026 itself, not as a gradual multi-year trend.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
El Nino - slow to get going but now rising rapidly
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AuInData @auindata.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Record warm June
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
I swim in the ocean every day and of course worry about sharks. I see the drum-lines just offshore and inspection boat each morning Data shows in Sydney its a likely a Dusky or Bronzie. Whites are around - but were just 18 of over 500 catches from Bondi to Barrenjoey
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
I swim in the ocean every day and of course worry about sharks. I see the drum-lines just offshore and inspection boat each morning Data shows in Sydney its a likely a Dusky or Bronzie. Whites are around - but were just 18 of over 500 catches from Bondi to Barrenjoey
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
I humbly offer exhibit A
Monthly sea surface temperature since 1900 v baseline 1961-1990. Since 2000 ~0.5C above baseline, last few years peaks above 1.0C
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Rock placed, twig floated for small beasts and critters to escape
Bird bath with rock and floating twig to allow critters to get out
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Missed and wasted it … “the USA under the Trump administration, has cut nearly US$3bn in funding and axed more than 3,800 grants from the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation, provided a once in a generation opportunity for Australia to attract researchers.”
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
It’s been threatening to flower for months - and at last it has. Gymea Lily - Sydney The single flower is about 10-15cm wide - with more to come. The stalk is ~4-5m high. For reference those are good size yucca bottom left #nature #flower #garden
Gymnastics Lily
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
"I told you it is wet" Sydney - August rainfall pushing us into exceptional year territory compared to last ~150 years. 2022 was record breaking by far
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Now at 0 at 4:16pm
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 27/04/2025
Bugs in the backyard Never seen one of these before #insect #photography Body is about 5mm long - It’s sitting on a block of wood 40mm wide
The nymph stage of the commonly named Squathoppers, member of the family Eurybrachidae. The nymphs often stay hidden, being camouflaged in brown, grey or green blotches, that mick the foliage, bark and lichens where they are found. In the nymphs pictured here, you can see the antennae-mimicking filaments on the abdomen.
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Timothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
Here is my best guidance for action, rendered beautifully by the great John Lithgow. I first published these lessons more than eight years ago, in late 2016. They open the twenty chapters of "On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century." snyder.substack.com/p/twenty-les...
snyder.substack.com
Twenty Lessons, read by John Lithgow
Key selections from On Tyranny, for viewing and sharing
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
My own query revealed 1. My book incl. editions in multiple languages 2. All journal/conference papers I ever authored (including some I had forgotten) I suspect contracts assigned rights But note that article speaks of piracy/theft Must ask publisher
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
In hot water. Warmest monthly sea surface temperature recorded ever in Australia (equal to Mar 2016) - source BOM
Chart of Australia monthly sea surface temperatures since 1900 showing that Jan 2025 was hottest month ever, equal to March 2016
Source the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Broligarchy Junta👇 Interesting take ... stepping back from individual events and tying many related events and players together, the picture and plan perhaps becomes clear... Much reporting is just about the personalities but m #auspol #broligarchy #junta www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/musk-s-jun...
doomsdayscenario.co
Musk's Junta Establishes Him as Head of Government
Imagining how we'd cover overseas what's happening to the U.S. right now
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 14/12/2024
I lived for a while ~15km from Indian Point Nuclear plant ~50 km from New York City within the so called "Peak Fatality Zone". Evacuation route signs on roads. Yearly emergency evac planning letters. Get your KI (potassium iodide) tablets from council offices. Are we ready for this? #auspol .../2
Overhead shot of Indian Point Nuclear power plant showing three reactor buildings looking south down Hudson River, NY towards NYC (around bend in distance). This plant is now shut, but nuclear waste is still stored on site.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Who knew that was possible.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
"There is an upside to ignorance & a downside to knowledge. Knowledge makes life messier. It makes it more difficult for a person who wishes to shrink the world to a worldview." ...
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
All well and good ... But notice the impact on avg. wholesale price and what generation type(s) is impacting that price. Charts shows avg. value v. generation volume for Sun Dec 1 and Mon Dec 2 on same scale. What a difference a day makes! Source: openelectricity.org.au
Average weighted price and generation volume by energy type in the NEMAverage weighted price and generation volume by energy type in the NEM
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Decorations are up Cockatoos, a couple of lorikeets, and the waning moon
Cockatoos on a Norfolk pine
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Quote by Timothy Snyder On Tyranny

Believe in Truth

To abandon facts is to abandon freedom.
If nothing is true, then no one can criticize power, because there is no basis upon which to do so.  If nothing is true, then all is spectacle. The biggest wallet pays for the most blinding lights.
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 07/11/2023
Whorls and eddies in the river of life. Temperature and phytoplankton along driven by the East Australian Current along the NSW coast
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CitSci @deadinlongrun.bsky.social · 28/10/2023
7 days of fire hot spots from orbiting satellites. Older hot spots are darker, newer are more yellow. You can see the current QLD fires Some spots are industrial sites/gas flares (Burrup in WA)/smelters
7 Days of fires across Australia from satellite observations
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