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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 11h

Labour has presumably gamed this dividing line and thinks they can win (I'm not saying it's done cynically: Burnham clearly believes in it - but you have to also believe you can deliver). The obvious Lab line will be that Tories/Reform remain content to see people's savings drained on care.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 14h

He's right. The French centre also need to get their act together because Le Pen & co are following the same gameplan and as multiple examples have shown across the world, having the arguments means little if you can't get them across effectively.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 16h

First question TV interviewers inevitably ask when someone proposes new spending, even modest amounts, is 'how are you going to pay for it'? But question the triple lock, costing tens of billions, and how it's paid for is just taken for granted. Double standards and a remarkable lack of curiosity.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Worth noting that the right to appeal is not the right to have the case heard again. For Man City to have these findings overturned, they'd need to prove a flawed process, or similar. Cheating on this scale deserves the strongest sanctions. Ban the directors, multiple relegations, immense fine.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I don't agree with such an ambivalent take from Gaby Hinsliff. To me, Burnham's was an exceptional speech: confident, coherent, a vision of what the country should be and a plausible plan on how to get it there. Leadership. A long way to go yet but Labour now in pole position to win in 2028.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This is a story well over 100 years in the making. Britain considered introducing partial* PR (well, STV, but near enough) in the 1917-8 and came very close to it, but failed. It is now time to do it. * Due to the mix of multi- and single-member seats. The rest would have been elected by AV.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Interesting pair of charts. I wonder how much of this is the growth of companies owned and run by extremely small numbers (eg 1-2 in an organisation), to extraordinary size? In theory, the divergence should produce a substantial leftwards shift in opinion. But as Simon says, narrative matters.

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András Forgács W @andraswf.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I'm pitching this immediately

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

It'll be interesting to see if this means extending the scope of National Insurance. Putting it on unearned income would raise a lot of money and not technically break Labour's 2024 manifesto.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I don't understand how the Home Office can be downright nasty, intrusive and obstructive to foreigners who come in to work or study, while simultaneously presiding over a regime that can grant British citizenship to central Hamas figures.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

The interesting question here is: access to whom? Blair is unpopular within the Labour movement. Which politicians and policy-makers are going to these networking events?

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

This could bankrupt Manchester City and end them entirely. Everton were ordered to pay £35m compensation for much less. I could well see Man City owing £500m-£1bn. Clear questions as to whether their directors are fit and proper people to act in that role. They should be banned from football.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

It is a tragedy. It's also a measure of how much more effective extremists have been in their messaging and comms, against the mainstream. The centre (broadly defined) has been like a rabbit in the headlights of X, incapable and unwilling to confidently advocate sensible policy - and so do nothing.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The US had a deal to end the war in Iran (and on Israel's borders), back in April. Netanyahu's immediate response was to launch large-scale attacks on Lebanon. I doubt Trump will have forgotten, or forgiven, as the war drags on and his ratings collapse. apnews.com/article/neta...

apnews.com

An isolated Netanyahu takes UN stage as he seeks reelection at home

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump has cooled as they disagree on how to handle the conflict with Iran.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This finding underlines why we should not take precise MRP numbers v seriously at this stage - huge numbers of seats are projected to be v close - a small shift in national sentiment or a modest and plausible level of tactical switching could dramatically change seat numbers

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Interest rates heading up, heavy levels of corporate and government debt, regulators and a central bank with doubtful credibility, and an economically illiterate and bombastic administration doesn't seem like an ideal combination to me. (These are not independent variables)

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Good. Some proper action at last. One would hope that charges will follow fairly speedily.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Bonds appear to be having a moment. Still, good to know there are safe hands on the levers of the world's reserve currency economy.

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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

For God's sake, this is craven. The Russians have been trying to obliterate US companies in Ukraine repeatedly and with some success. The US government says nothing at all.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The deal should indeed be reviewed. Not because Trump says so (indeed, it's unfortunate that this has been the prompt to action) but because the deal cuts out the Chagossians, is for an absurd amount of money and the island is critical to British interests. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

UK to review Chagos Islands deal over lack of US support, Streeting tells BBC

Defence Secretary Wes Streeting has confirmed the review after Donald Trump told Andy Burnham the deal was "terrible".

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Steve Peers @stevepeers.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

We're in "Stop! Or I'll say 'Stop!' again!" territory

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

This is unusually direct in public from Trump to Putin. Presumably someone's shown him the actual mid-term polling.

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Matthew Holehouse @matthewholehouse.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

It's possible the UK govt would find the politics of the EU reset easier if it at least pretended to want much of the substance of the deal, rather than continually describing what it is bound to sign up to as "EU requests"

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

When power drains, acts reinforce each other. The networks would not have done this if Trump's net rating was +20 and he was heading for re-election. But it's not. It's in the bin and so people feel freer to ignore or oppose him with less fear of consequence. And other people see that too.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Rejoining 'in principle' is not the same as rejoining 'on the terms available'. I would expect support to drop off once it becomes clear that the status quo ante isn't (and shouldn't be) an option. But given a good, positive campaign, I'm sure that a comfortable majority could be achieved.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

This timing of this summit was intriguing. It must have been arranged for months. But only in the last few weeks did AI leaders start making public comments about its safety. Coincidence? Or was the then-impending summit an active prompt to spur their statements? www.royal.uk/news-and-act...

royal.uk

The King convenes tech leaders for AI Summit in Scotland

His Majesty has brought together leaders from the artificial intelligence sector, government ministers, and civil society thought leaders at Dumfries House in...

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

These issues should *never* happen. NATS is both critical infrastructure and vitally important to public safety. There is clearly far too little robustness in the system, whether from hack, poor code implementation, or back-up systems. Unacceptable. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cq...

bbc.co.uk

Air traffic control issue causes UK flight disruption for second time this month

National Air Traffic Services says the issue at their Prestwick centre is "now fixed", and it is working to "safely lift air traffic regulations as quickly as we can".

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Irrespective of the details, Denmark has made a very serious mistake concluding an agreement with Trump. Trump will not care about the details. He will believe the agreement gives him the power to do what he wants, and that reaching it validated his methods. He'll also rip it up when it suits.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

They're either idiots or cowards at JP Morgan (my money on the latter). Sure, the endgame in Iran is unknowable; dropping a single 'baseline' makes sense. So, instead, model out the possible outcomes and assign them probabilities. The combination is your central projection. Not too hard to model.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Interesting and concerning thread, as Europe faces key elections next year. The serious times should, in traditional theory, bring voters to serious parties. However the study referenced below suggests most radicalised voters don't return when confronted with security threats.

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Pete Fraser @petefrasermusic.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

This is something I’ve noticed in recent years, and my theory is that the far right have REALLY had a number done on them by internet brain poisoning - they used to know that you weren’t supposed to mock crying (white) mothers on television, but now they really think there’s a market for it.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

I'm very dubious that Charles would have said what Spencer claims he said. Apart from anything else, he's not an idiot and Diana had been all over the media for 18 years. An out-of-touch palace flunky might well have said it. Not the same story there though, if so. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Palace in war of words with Earl Spencer over book's claim on Charles and Diana

The row threatens to overshadow a very crowded day for the royals - with the King and Princes William and Harry all attending events.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Donald Trump threatened to 'cut off' trade with [who knows but essentially countries he doesn't like] if the Fed raised rates. It's raised rates. Ball lobbed into the Oval Office. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw...

bbc.co.uk

US central bank raises interest rates for first time in more than three years - follow live

The Federal Reserve has been under pressure to hike interest rates, which influence mortgages and savings, to help curb rising prices.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Prepare for an incoming stream of Truth Social invective. Every member voted for a rise. It's amazing what actual independence from executive interference can do for decision-making.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

How do hegemons fall? Slowly, then quickly. Their military power is buttressed by a supporting and interlocking network of social and cultural relationships, values, financial ties and trade - with the hegemon at the centre. Invariably, the withering of one aspect feeds through to the rest.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The BoE shouldn't get too worked up about a UK inflation month-on-month rise of 0.2pp and an annual rate of 3.1%. Given the impacts of Trump's Iran War - which ought to only have a shortish-term impact - on commodities, such small increases ought to be tolerable. No need for base rate rises yet.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

This, but in slightly later-life parenthood. Introducing kiddo to the playlist of my own teens / twenties only to realise these songs are as old to him as Frank Sinatra and proto-rock would have been to me at his age.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Ridiculous how much media attention is being given to a village complaining about 'a load of single men' being placed on its periphery in what used to be ... checks notes ... *an army camp*. But I guess the army mostly employed white men. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

Piddington in Oxfordshire votes to leave UK over asylum plans

Piddington residents vote over proposals to house up to 1,256 male asylum seekers nearby.

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Also: hoe the fuck does 'tiny village does silly self arranged referendum and votes to leave UK' get a breaking news alert on a national broadcaster

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

And Healey was rather more than either a dog in the street or a member of the public. He'd been a member of cabinet only a matter of weeks before.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The global economy, and that of the US, managed to carry on fairly well, despite Trump, for 18 months or so. We may have reached the point where that's no longer the case. The worry is that the contagion continues into other markets and sectors, and the policy response makes it worse still.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Interesting polling and analysis from Lord Ashcroft on a hypothetical Con/Ref alliance. Put simply: it doesn't work. Too many current voters from both parties don't like the other and would defect. lordashcroftpolls.com/2026/09/can-...

lordashcroftpolls.com

Can the right unite? The question revisited - Lord Ashcroft Polls

Much has changed since we last looked at the idea of an alliance between Reform UK and the Conservatives. It was, for one thing, a whole prime minister ago (admittedly not as great a measure of politi...

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Good article from Ed Conway here on energy prices and related issues. The tl;dr version: Iran and its allies are tightening the screw on oil and gas in a way they didn't manage to in March, and reserves are low. We should be worried but shouldn't be panicking, yet.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

There is no reason that a pensioner should not pay the same tax on the same income as someone whose money comes from income or investments.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Trump has lost his war with Iran. The price of peace could be steep. I expect him to cave after the midterms, under the claim that really Iran has surrendered, and largely withdraw the US from the region.

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David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I feel Trump's tweet may age badly. Indeed, after this last summer, the tweet was badly-aged at birth. And that's before El Nino does its thing.

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