David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 23hNot sure that's true. British debt grew through the 18th century until it was exceptionally high in 1815, but then declined through the (relatively war-free) 19th century until it was at a modest level in 1914 - after which it exploded again in WWI. 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Fair point. Checking the FA regulations, it does look like standard procedure - 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Working class opinion is well to the right of the rest of the country on immigration. As I say, Labour can choose to represent values or it can choose to represent a set of people. It can't do both. 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Bonds appear to be having a moment. Still, good to know there are safe hands on the levers of the world's reserve currency economy. 2173
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 22/09/2026It's not completely magic. Decisions happened that reduced growth. Other decisions could be taken that would increase it. However, obviously, there are trade-offs and unpopularities involved in those decisions - otherwise they'd already have been taken. Those advocating them need to be open there. 230
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 14/09/2026He - without checking, it is a he, isn't it - would do well to take some advice from someone who knew about about readability. The point driven home here by it being entirely single-syllable itself. 120
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Apparently Britain's "dom [sic] loop" is accelerating. Nothing to do with her, obviously. Maybe something to do with Cummings, perhaps. 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 28/08/2026As you're not on the 96, I can't give you a wave in person but instead have a virtual wave from a bus on a turtle to a turtle on a bus for as you pass through Newmillerdam / Sandal! 130
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 28/08/2026After the rain yesterday, for the first time in months, my local river (the Calder) is measuring more than 1cm (over the weir at the Hepworth). Signs of the drought finally ending. 010
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 14/08/2026Some days it's a question of whatever remains after you've eliminated everything else! 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 08/08/2026Trump will probably have no problem with the first four. Hormuz transit fees can equate to reparations. But Israel will kick off about the final two and that'll be a major problem. Also, what does an end to threats mean in practice and how would it be verified/enforced? Screenshot taken from X. 000
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 04/08/2026If we want to get tougher on carbon emissions, one option would be to slap tariffs on China. Their coal production isn't remotely justifiable even given the scale of their population and is hugely damaging to the environment, as well as a trade distortion. Obviously, temu users wouldn't like it. 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 30/07/2026Most of it was consumed in the first six weeks. It will have been a key driver of the April ceasefire. Graphic from @osinttechnical.bsky.social on X. 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 06/07/2026I think we tend to underrate Harry Kane in England. He's more than a very capable number nine. He's one of the best ever. Equal eighth on the all-time international goal-scorers list - more than Rooney and Shearer combined - and at a higher ratio than virtually anyone with more goals. 010
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 05/07/2026I hope so too - I'm sure I will! I assume you've seen this but it amused me when I was there a couple of years ago. Were you able to get a look around? 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 05/07/2026It arrived today. That'll be summer holiday reading mostly sorted. 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026For contrast, this is the breakdown of when the monthly records were set for coldest temperatures: 1800s: 1 1900-1949: 5 1950-1999: 6 2000-present: none (There are several joint-records but oddly all of the entries in each of the respective months fall within the same period) 002
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026Britain has fairly comprehensive, accurate weather records going back about 175 years. Victorians loved to measure stuff. This is the breakdown of when the current hottest month records were set: 1800s: none 1900-1949: 2 1950-1999: 1 2000-present: 9 Of those this century 6 are 2019-present. 175
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 23/06/2026Until 2003, the highest *ever* temperature recorded in the UK was 37.1C Were it not for the escalations of recent years, we'd be talking about a potential *all-time* record high today. But the record's been broken three times since then and is now 3C higher. 000
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 17/06/2026Interesting and important point in Rob Ford's latest article on Makerfield (and beyond). It's easy to talk too glibly of a Ref/Con block. There are still quite a lot of Tories who see Reform (never mind Restore) as an unacceptable option. swingometer.substack.com/p/by-electio... 111
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 07/06/2026The Lords test has just produced the third-lowest match aggregate in which all forty wickets fell since 1960. Not good enough. 131
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 03/06/2026That's not what the poll says. It says the public are (currently) opposed to paying a *larger* membership fee than before Brexit. The poll also gives Rejoin a 53-30 lead so the public very clearly is ready to for renewed membership. 000
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 03/06/20266/6 What is clear is that if the UK was to rejoin the EU, a referendum would be politically essential, with a 67-17 split. Referendums on first-tier constitutional issues are now a convention, and rapidly solidifying into a constitutional (if not legal) requirement. - END - 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 03/06/20265/n Opinion on the Euro might be the bigger block, given the EU would no doubt expect at least a formal commitment to join. Opinion runs 61-25 against (though a quarter favouring Euro membership isn't trivial). That said, Sweden, Poland and others have the same commitment and aren't in. 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 03/06/20264/n Indeed, opinion on Brexit is dire for Leave/Stay Out, with a near 5-to-1 balance (53-11) who think Brexit has made things worse. That's pretty solid emperical, practical belief for Rejoin campaigners to work with. 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 03/06/20263/n Unsurprisingly, there's more hostility to Britain paying a larger membership fee, with 19-66 opposition - although as most think Brexit has made things worse, Rejoiners need to make the argument that the fee is a price worth paying given the cost of Brexit and the opportunities of Rejoin. 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 03/06/20262/n The poll asks about conditions for Rejoin. Interestingly, there's already a 46-37 majority to join Schengen (perhaps helped by recent border problems at airports and ferry terminals), so only a slight drag - and may not be an EU red line anyway with Ireland not in. 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 03/06/2026Some interesting figures from Lord Ashcroft's latest polling on the UK rejoining the EU. The headline number looks extremely positive for Rejoin, with a 52-30 lead for Rejoin (or 63-37 excluding DK/WNV), however that lead is probably quite soft. [thread] 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 30/05/2026For once, Trump does have a point blaming his inheritance from Biden. Trump is blasting through the US strategic petroleum reserve (50m barrels withdrawn in 8 weeks) but Biden took out almost 300m barrels between Jan 2021 and Jul 2023 - close to half the entire reserve - and only restocked 50m. 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 20/05/2026These are the latest stats on vacancies: falling on both a quarterly and annual basis. Certainly it's true that vacancies are higher than the post-GFC/austerity era but not by much, and are well below the unemployment count (leaving aside the skills/geographic mismatches). 100
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 19/05/2026This is a slow-burn story that deserves more prominence. UK unemployment has risen steadily from about 3.6% in 2022 to 5% now. Youth unemployment is particularly high. Vacancies are falling, as are real wages. Unsurprising that there's a political backlash. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... 118123
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 15/05/2026I hate this obsessively Westminster-centric framing. There is a world outside. Being Mayor of Greater Manchester is very much "on the [political] pitch". It's that kind of attitude - that anywhere outside SW1 is a place where things are done to, not in - that makes devolution so necessary. 130
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 14/05/2026This has the look of a hospital pass about it for Burnham. Assuming he can get as far as the shortlist and Labour's NEC doesn't block him again (they'd be idiots to but that may not stop them). 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 12/05/2026Spectacularly bad call from No 10. Utterly out of touch both with political niceties and political reality. At this rate, he'll be pre-announcing his resignation this evening. 152
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 10/05/2026Swinney can argue for a second Independence referendum all he likes but the SNP won only a little over a quarter of the regional vote, and pro-independence parties collectively won only 42.7%. AMS is distorting results and Scotland should follow Wales's lead in a move to a more proportional system. 1010
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 10/05/2026It's a measure of the political earthquake that's just hit England (and, if less so, Scotland and Wales), that Labour began the night defending over 2500 council seats and ended it being overtaken by a party that began the night defending 2. Reform also overtook Con, LD and Grn in the process. 020
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 29/04/2026I don't know if this was a photo captured at an unrepresentative moment but Trump's body posture here is odd. Absolutely no energy. Usually, even if speakers aren't actively animating their words with gestures, they'll be in a neutral position ready to do so. Here, his arms are just dangling. 021
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 28/04/2026Fascinating snippet from Paul Krugman's latest substack. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-oil-sq... 80% of the supply lost from the closure of the Strait is being replaced by reserves. If those reserves run out, prices should soar by ~4 times what they already have. Which'd be about $260/barrel. 010
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 24/04/2026Not the best option to stop racism though. Add in their economic illiteracy and authoritarian principles and I don't see them as all that different to Reform. 300
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 24/04/2026UK 10 year gilts trading at a new post-GFC high, nudging 5%. Unhelpful. Though the Iran War will generate inflation, depress growth and enlarge the budget deficit, so unsurprising. FWIW, I'm surprised the US rates haven't gone up similarly, or more, given all the risks and impacts there. 000
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 21/04/2026Oof. Robbins alleges that No 10 asked for its sacked Director of Comms Matthew Doyle (himself not clear of scandal) be compensated with an ambassadorship. That's going to land badly with Labour MPs. Indeed, it could blow up to be worse than the Mandelson question - Starmer directly implicated. 0102
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 17/04/20262/n The Iranian objectives were perhaps just as opaque (unsurprisingly given the changing leaderships), but from their actions, comments and natural aspirations, we might get a list something like 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 17/04/20261/n What were the US objectives? Here we immediately hit a problem. They ranged all over the place from quite minimalist (degrade their offensive capability) to Trump's one-off 'unconditional surrender'. However, I think a realistic list of demands and objectives might be like the one below. 110
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 08/04/2026I fully agree with this conclusion from @pkrugman.bsky.social 's latest substack (link below). But it's not just war. The same attitude applies across policy. It will also govern Trump's attitude to the economy, financial regulation and fiscal prudence. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/ignorance-... 000
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 03/04/2026It was never a purely economic union. *Literally* the first line of the 1957 Treaty of Rome (after listing the signatories) makes this explicit: 031
David Herdson @davidherdson.bsky.social · 01/04/2026Katya Adler here missing the point that the US under Trump has already as good as said it would never fight for Nato (but she's not the only one hanging on to past promises there). She has a stronger point about intelligence, air defence and other capabilities the US disproportionately provides. 000