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virtual.oxfordabstracts.com

Also, thanks to folks at this terrific (at least the rest of the papers) panel at EPSS this year, who provided a lot of great feedback for how I might move forward with the project. virtual.oxfordabstracts.com/event/75765/...

OA Virtual conferences

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I have a back-burner project that examines whether or not the relationship between women's labor force participation and women's descriptive political representation is causal, focusing on the US. Short answer is: seems unlikely. Posting the working paper, to keep it half out of the file drawer.

First page of a working paper.

Did Rosie the Riveter Send Ms. Smith to Washington?

Daniel Pemstein
Department of Political Science & Public Policy
North Dakota State University
September 25, 2026

Abstract
Scholars have long argued that women’s labor force participation increases their descriptive representation. Labor participation plausibly affects both demand- (e.g., voter norms) and supply-side (e.g., women in political feeder professions) determinants of descriptive representation. While findings are mixed, on balance, women’s labor
force participation and descriptive political representation correlate, at least in crossnational panel studies. But establishing a causal connection between labor participation and descriptive representation is difficult. The two variables are likely endogenous and relationships between them are almost certainly confounded. I take advantage of a
plausibly exogenous instrument for labor participation—county-level variation in U.S. World War II casualties that differentially increased women’s work-force participation across localities—to test whether women’s labor participation causes descriptive
representation.

WORKING PAPER
Please check with the author for an updated version before citing.

I would like to thank Andreas Ferrara, who generously shared WWII draftee casualty data. This work used resources of the Center for Computationally Assisted Science and Technology (CCAST) at North Dakota State University, which were made possible in part by NSF MRI Award No. 2019077.

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And the thrust of your argument, which is that the buck always stops with the human, is absolutely right.

No worries. I was being sort of snarky, but also genuinely think it's just often a difficult problem to read intent.

Also, we did *not* sufficiently research the cost of ownership of a polaroid camera before giving the child this gift. Turns out that mini-polaroids cost in excess of $1/exposure.

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My first grader got a polaroid camera for his birthday and wanted to repurpose a cloth-bound copy of A Christmas Carol as an album. Found a guy in Baltimore who hand binds blank books (and has exquisite penmanship). The book is beautiful, so wanted to give the store a plug: pencilrevolution.com

A light blue cloth bound book, sitting on a table.

Inner cover and first page of the book. Inner cover has a sticker saying "J. F. GAMBER BOOKBINDER, PENCIL REVOLUTION PRESS LLC, member guild of book workers" and a child's writing that says: "Hello and MY Name is Kieran This is my Photo ALBUM" The first page says "Kieran's Photo Book"

Two pages from the book. Left: some small Polaroids of toys and stuffies. Right: Child's writing that says: "if eneBODY Fiends This Book BienDer Keep it saefe Beacus it is SpeshLe Beacus it is my Photo Book"

Exquisitely handwritten note on Pencil Revolution Press stationary that says: "Thanks, Daniel!

Hope this finds you enjoying a nice, crisp early autumn!

Best Regards from Charm City, Johnny"

Although, with submission volume where it is, it's probably wise to mitigate against desk rejection ex ante and not cause the editorial team any additional labor...

And as I said elsewhere in this conversation, @tompepinsky.com's argument that the solution is to raise the stakes overall is reasonably compelling, at least in theory.

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They can do this sort of thing, and then it is easy to make a call, but I think what @adam42smith.bsky.social and I have been pointing out is that, in our day-to-day experience, we are catching a surprising amount of errors where we don't feel confident we know how it happened.

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And yeah, we would desk reject your paper for this, which is not terribly unlike a failed paper.

I don't think anyone is making excuses for fake citing. But I am also not willing to bet my career on there being no weird mistakes in my completely hand-written bibtex file. Completely imaginary papers, no. But have I ever accidentally put the author field for one paper in the entry for another...?

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Joyce Park @troutgirl.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

Human error is not fraud. Submitting a paper with references generated by a machine that you know confabulates is.

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Reposted by Dan Pemstein

I once knew a Federal bank examiner, and one time someone asked him why we had to KEEP inspecting banks over and over. He basically said every new batch of business school grads invents bank fraud from first principles.

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And yeah, I'd be open to a model where this is generally agreed upon, and we all understand the consequences of not checking your citations going in.

I can imagine some data entry/copy-paste errors that would look like this. But I agree it is unlikely, especially relative to the llm explanation.

I agree, but I often can't distinguish the two.

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The former isn't fraud, to my mind. The second could be if the author relied on an llm to do the citing and didn't do due diligence, as that is willfully negligence, not an error.

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Nanjala @nanjala.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Most of the examples we see at apsr are more garbled, or mixed up in weird ways (article exists, attributed to the wrong author, or journal article cited with correct author and title, but suddenly it is a book) than fully made up. Really hard to tell if it was human error or llm confabulation...

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Reposted by Dan Pemstein

Our new volume on Global Platform Governance is now available for pre-orders, gathering perspectives from academics and practitioners all over the world on key debates around regulating platforms so that folks are not just engaging what works for the US or the EU. www.bloomsbury.com/uk/global-pl...

bloomsbury.com

Global Platform Governance

This is a field-defining open access playbook for identifying and responding to the global regulatory challenges created by large digital platforms.Here Nanjala…

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 16/09/2026

Also someone checks to make sure I do not request reimbursement for tips exceeding $5, regardless of the cost of the service rendered, but that's more a state law, than a middle management, problem, tbf.

Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 16/09/2026

I now have to file 2-3 separate reimbursement requests for every work trip, because my university's accounting office has interpreted the new IRS 60 day rule (honestly, just taking their word that this is even a thing) in the absolute worst possible way.

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Olivia Guest · Ολίβια Γκεστ @olivia.science · 15/09/2026

I am so tired of how we have been saying this for more than a decade by this point

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Ian Campbell @iwcampbell.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

NDSU’s punter might hold the record for kinds of cultural experience in a six year span

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 14/09/2026

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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

A thread of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that look like record covers... because that's EXACTLY what the world needs 1. Huey Lewis and the News: link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 26/08/2026

On top of everything, the GFRP stipend was $30k in 2024 (so ~$54k in current dollars). Now it is $37k.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 27/07/2026

Clay is a social psychologist...not an expert on mental health. But he writes a mean op-ed.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 11/07/2026

But also, I didn't realize this until I moved to Fargo: www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-...

smithsonianmag.com

Why Don't We See Fireflies in the Western U.S.?

You asked, we answered

Tim Longman 🏳️‍🌈 @timlongman.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Reposted by Dan Pemstein

The Department of Education has now officially submitted proposals to eliminate International Education and Fulbright Hays programs, which have funded thousands of students and scholars to study languages and conduct research abroad. I encourage you to make public comments and contact your reps.

govinfo.gov

GovInfo

Official Publications from the U.S. Government Publishing Office.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 09/07/2026

Except plenty of APSA CP section members would probably go way further and suggest that smoke filled rooms are, if not ideal, the best known candidate selection process.

Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 04/07/2026

And that's just one specific example of a much broader issue. Also why the usaid/nato/etc moves are so difficult to rewind, even if they are magically reset under the next admin.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 04/07/2026

Who is going to set aside their own work, upend their life, and move to Washington if even a moderate chance of doge 2.0 lurks over the horizon?

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 04/07/2026

Beyond the disruption, it changes the equilibrium going forward, almost no matter what the next four years look like, because we all know it can be turned upside down on a dime. Eg, the political/institutional change necessary to make being an NSF rotator attractive again is massive.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 29/06/2026

Norwegian Americans in the wild.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 11/06/2026

I'm thoroughly jaded about this world cup, but the Mexican anthem at Azteca has me wobbling a bit.

Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 10/06/2026

Pretty delighted with how Fargo voted for mayor (bonus that he's an NSDU polisci grad): www.facebook.com/share/v/1DBC...

Shot from the video described by this caption: Tonight, newly elected Mayor Joshua Boschee of Fargo, ND came over to visit Dempsey's Public House & Sang Chappell Roan's "Pink Pony Club" for Karaoke Night.

Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 31/05/2026

Kind of like the $5 limit on reimbursement for tips when traveling, regardless of the size of the bill

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 31/05/2026

Yeah, NDSU does 3k assoc, 4k full raises, and has not adjusted these numbers for inflation since I've been here.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 31/05/2026

Always fun to fire up the CPI calculator to learn that, as a full prof, I make 1.09x my 2012 starting assistant prof salary, or a total of $5k more, in 2012 dollars.

Svend-Erik Skaaning @skaaning.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Reposted by Dan Pemstein

New book on democracy. #OpenAccess Seven Myths about Democracy by Jørgen Møller & Svend-Erik Skaaning, Routledge taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-mon.... Challenges (full or partial) misunderstandings about the meaning, trajectory, causes, and consequences of democracy.

taylorfrancis.com

Seven Myths about Democracy | Jørgen Møller, Svend-Erik Skaaning | Tay

This timely book challenges seven widespread misconceptions about democracy that continue to shape public and academic debates about its past, present, and

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Politics & Gender @politicsgenderj.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

📣 New #FirstView Notes from the Field 📝 In "USAID Bureau on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance", @mlkrook.bsky.social interviews Julie Denham, Rebecca Gordon, and other members of the gender team at DRG. buff.ly/r1Kh24W #OpenAccess gendersky polisky

Notes from the field article titled "USAID Bureau on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance" by Julie Denham, Rebecca Gordon, Caroline Hubbard, Meg McClure, Alessia Stewart, and Mona Lena Krook.

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Reposted by Dan Pemstein

John Muller @johnspacemuller.com · 24/05/2026

Data visualization is my passion

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 22/05/2026

I think that's called "raw" sugar in North America.