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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 25/09/2026

I have a back-burner project that examines whether or not the relationship between women's labor force participation and women's descriptive political representation is causal, focusing on the US. Short answer is: seems unlikely. Posting the working paper, to keep it half out of the file drawer.

First page of a working paper.

Did Rosie the Riveter Send Ms. Smith to Washington?

Daniel Pemstein
Department of Political Science & Public Policy
North Dakota State University
September 25, 2026

Abstract
Scholars have long argued that women’s labor force participation increases their descriptive representation. Labor participation plausibly affects both demand- (e.g., voter norms) and supply-side (e.g., women in political feeder professions) determinants of descriptive representation. While findings are mixed, on balance, women’s labor
force participation and descriptive political representation correlate, at least in crossnational panel studies. But establishing a causal connection between labor participation and descriptive representation is difficult. The two variables are likely endogenous and relationships between them are almost certainly confounded. I take advantage of a
plausibly exogenous instrument for labor participation—county-level variation in U.S. World War II casualties that differentially increased women’s work-force participation across localities—to test whether women’s labor participation causes descriptive
representation.

WORKING PAPER
Please check with the author for an updated version before citing.

I would like to thank Andreas Ferrara, who generously shared WWII draftee casualty data. This work used resources of the Center for Computationally Assisted Science and Technology (CCAST) at North Dakota State University, which were made possible in part by NSF MRI Award No. 2019077.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 25/09/2026

My first grader got a polaroid camera for his birthday and wanted to repurpose a cloth-bound copy of A Christmas Carol as an album. Found a guy in Baltimore who hand binds blank books (and has exquisite penmanship). The book is beautiful, so wanted to give the store a plug: pencilrevolution.com

A light blue cloth bound book, sitting on a table.

Inner cover and first page of the book. Inner cover has a sticker saying "J. F. GAMBER BOOKBINDER, PENCIL REVOLUTION PRESS LLC, member guild of book workers" and a child's writing that says: "Hello and MY Name is Kieran This is my Photo ALBUM" The first page says "Kieran's Photo Book"

Two pages from the book. Left: some small Polaroids of toys and stuffies. Right: Child's writing that says: "if eneBODY Fiends This Book BienDer Keep it saefe Beacus it is SpeshLe Beacus it is my Photo Book"

Exquisitely handwritten note on Pencil Revolution Press stationary that says: "Thanks, Daniel!

Hope this finds you enjoying a nice, crisp early autumn!

Best Regards from Charm City, Johnny"

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 14/09/2026

Fargo area folks, the Department of Political Science & Public Policy at NDSU is hosting a public lecture by @bcburden.bsky.social, about the 2026 US Election, on Oct 1, at 6pm, in Minard Hall (Room 230). Hope to see you there!

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 29/06/2026

Norwegian Americans in the wild.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 10/06/2026

Pretty delighted with how Fargo voted for mayor (bonus that he's an NSDU polisci grad): www.facebook.com/share/v/1DBC...

Shot from the video described by this caption: Tonight, newly elected Mayor Joshua Boschee of Fargo, ND came over to visit Dempsey's Public House & Sang Chappell Roan's "Pink Pony Club" for Karaoke Night.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 14/04/2026

After retirement, he subbed for years for a high school near his home in Tucson. He was apparently popular, perhaps partially because a teacher started a rumor that he was CIA. Old Twitter had a bunch of posts from his students that made my day a few years ago when I did a search. A sample:

LEGO Batman 2 says: Let's be real here, if you don't like mr pemstein we're done

ronnie says: The thing I miss most about foothills is when I would walk into a class and see Pemstein. He's straight up the realest g

jalon says: this year's best sub award goes to mr. pemstein (ok symbol, heart)

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 15/03/2026

Ok, so, had to look. Less dramatic than I had hoped, for the sake of the example. Expected pattern among men. Was not expecting American women to be quite so terrified of Koalas.

Table of percentage of people in a survey who think they can beat a koala in a fight:
Men - US 94%, UK 89%, AU 85%
Women - US 50%, UK 65%, AU 61%
Non-binary - US [no data], UK [no data], AU 67% [3 respondents]

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 10/03/2026

Just, last week, saw the swan-song of the all-orchestra (5th-12th grade) event that they hold every spring.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 19/01/2026

Snow could be better but bluebird days at White Pass provide some great views of Ranier.

Photo with skiers in the foreground and Mount Rainier in the distance, on a clear day.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 01/01/2026

North-Eastern vs Western Minnesota (wind chill of -18 in the second photo).

Driving through the Superior National Forest, somewhere between Silver Bay and Hibbing. Trees are shrouded in snow.

Approaching Moorhead on Highway 10. Sundog and blowing snow.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 30/12/2025

Not much natural snow at Lutsen this year, but the Lake Superior views aren't half bad.

Near sunset view of Lake Superior from the top of Eagle Mtn, with a skier in the foreground

View of Lake Superior from Moose Mtn, one skier in the middle distance

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 25/12/2025

You probably never had a chance to eat at Bernbaum's, which is a shame. But now there's a cookbook! (although yours will likely not be signed and unexpectedly hand-delivered by the author) www.dottirpress.com/bernbaums

Back cover of the Bernbaum's cookbook with blurbs from Molly Yeh, NYT, WaPo, Food & Wine, and one of the owner's of Zandbroz in downtown Fargo.

A page from the book with an epitaph to the restaurant: "A Nordic-Jewish deli did exist. May its memory be a blessing."

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 08/07/2025

and the view of Muir Pass, from Wanda Lake, the evening before.

Evening view of Muir Pass from Wanda Lake

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 08/07/2025

and the relevant confession

Prior hiker's confession reads: "Old man bong hits in the Muir Hut! Top o the morning to ya! 🙂"

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 08/07/2025

Return to society or walk back into the high Sierra to find the guy who hot-boxed the Muir Hut maybe an hour before I got there at 9am Saturday?

Inside of the Muir Hut. A small stone room with a walled up fireplace, antlers on the hearth, and a dedication plaque.

View from the Muir Hut window (lakes and mountains below)

Muir Hut "Confessions" and "Check in" books

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 03/06/2025

This earlier paper is part of the same project as our recent AJPS article. It provides a descriptive overview of vote-buying in Nepali elections, using a multi-methods approach combining a survey experiments, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

Understanding vote buying in Nepali elections

A growing literature posits that vote buying dynamics depend on characteristics of the context and its voters. We explore vote buying in Nepal using a multi-methods approach combining survey experiments, semi-structured interviews, and focus group discussions. We find that vote buying in Nepal aligns somewhat with other contexts. A list experiment reveals approximately 25% of Nepali voters receive a voter-buying offer and, in an unmonitored but contingent exchange, the same percentage vote for the offeror candidate or party. Cash and other private goods are the most common offers. In contrast to findings from other contexts, however, voter education level is the strongest predictor of refraining from vote buying in Nepal, and wealth is not a significant predictor. Our list experiment also finds that, in Nepal, clientelism appears to be a socially undesirable activity. Overall, our results support the increasingly dominant viewpoint that vote buying is highly context dependent.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 02/06/2025

Happy to share this paper with Jeevan Baniya, @smeserve.bsky.social‬, and Brigitte Seim. We used multiple survey experiments to see how Nepali voters think about the trade-off between vote-buying and candidate provision of local public goods (schools, plumbing) in office. doi.org/10.1111/ajps... 1/

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 02/06/2025

Catalinas looked quite different in the morning and evening today.

Photo of the Santa Catalina Mountains with a road in the foreground.

Photo of the Catalinas with clouds covering them and coming down a canyon.

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 25/05/2025

Strongly recommend the Loons supporters' section, as long as you don't mind standing for extended periods of time (and even if you aren't an ardent supporter).

Photo of the inside of Allianz Field at dusk

Photo from the Loons section of Allianz Field after a home goal

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Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · 30/04/2025

A few years ago, @danweitzel.net, John Gerring, @skaaning.bsky.social and I were curious how well one could predict subjective democracy measures using easy(ish) to code observables. Turns out, *quite* well, even out of sample. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Measuring electoral democracy with observables

Most cross-national indices of democracy rely centrally on coder judgments, which are susceptible to bias and error, and require expensive and time consuming coding by experts. We present an approach to measurement based on observables that aim to preserve the nuanced quality of subjectively coded democracy indices. Our observable-to-subjective score mapping is free of idiosyncratic coder errors arising from misinformation, slack, or biases. It is less susceptible to systematic bias that may arise from coders’ inferences about a country’s regime, for example, from the ideology of the ruler. The data collection procedure and mode of analysis are fully transparent and replicable, and the procedure is based on random forests and is cheap to produce, easy to update, and offers coverage for all polities with sovereign or semisovereign status, surpassing the sample of any existing index. We show that this expansive coverage makes a big difference to our understanding of some causal questions.

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