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Daniel Munevar

@danielmunevar.bsky.social
980 followers 375 following 55 posts

What it feels like to work on sovereign debt issues

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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
This paper is WILD: “Nestlé’s entry into LMIC formula markets caused about 212,000 infant deaths per year among mothers without clean water access… and has led to approximately 10.9 million excess infant deaths between 1960 and 2015.” www.nber.org/system/files...
nber.org
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
A blog on Development and Climate Finance Targets: The Worst of All Worlds. www.cgdev.org/blog/develop... TLDR: We really need climate finance agreements to have targets for adaptation and development finance in the poorest countries ....
cgdev.org
Development and Climate Finance Targets: The Worst of All Worlds
Last week, the UN Foundation and the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs kindly asked me to talk at an informal session on the coherence between development and climate finance. I learned a l...
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Layna Mosley @laynamosley.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
Die Hard is about a (prospective) bondholder claiming coupon and principal payments on (now obsolete) debt securities. Die Hard is a sovereign finance movie.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Had a request to look at some stuff in the latest WEO. For fun, I compiled the countries with the highest projected interest to government revenue ratios in 2025. Egypt and Pakistan are on a league of their own, 6 of the top 10 are African countries, and notable presence of India in this group 🧐
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Clémence Landers @clemencelanders.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
IDA reaches $100 B replenishment which should allow it to sustain current program levels around $33-$34 B a year in low cost financing. (1/3) www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...
worldbank.org
World Bank Group Announces Record $100 Billion IDA Replenishment
The World Bank Group and partner governments have mobilized a record replenishment to the International Development Association (IDA), the world’s largest source of development finance for low-income ...
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Talking with the FT about the Ivory Coast / World Bank swap deal. Couple of good things on this one. Managed to drive down intermediation costs by side stepping SPV structure and allowed the country to allocate proceeds from transaction. on.ft.com/3BhkuzW
on.ft.com
Ivory Coast turns to World Bank to replace costly debt
Swap deal to buy back bonds issued in January comes as African borrowers struggle under expensive debt burdens
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
This IMF Independent Evaluation Office sounds VERY promising. Who could have thought that side stepping rules for large loans due political interference of large shareholders was a problem? 😉 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
media.tenor.com
a man in a suit and tie is running down a sidewalk with the words let me in written on it .
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is running down a sidewalk with the words let me in written on it .
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Interesting analysis of the relationship between external public debt service and public expenditures. Expenditure in areas such as agriculture, environment and education tends to decrease when debt service goes up (with the caveat that the analysis doesn't mean to establish a causal relationship).
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Net negative transfers on external public debt in middle and low-income countries continued in 2023. Public sectors in these countries paid more to creditors than they received in fresh funding. Multilaterals are providing net positive flows, while private creditors continue to drain resources.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Christmas has arrived early for the debt community with the release of the World Bank International Debt Report 2024 🎅 After a quick scan (still have to go through the data), two things caught my attention 🧵 www.worldbank.org/en/programs/....
worldbank.org
International Debt Report
The World Bank’s International Debt Report features external debt statistics and analysis for low- and middle-income countries and information on new bond issuance in international capital markets.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
An additional element of interest is the role of the IADB. Maybe is their requirements that make it better/cheape to structure as a loan? What is their cost of opportunity vs providing an outright loan? Also interesting role of EIB 👀
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
Another debt swap backed by a loan instead of a bond issuance. Something I really like about this transaction is that secures long-term funding in local currency, reducing costs while improving resilience to external shocks www.reuters.com/business/env...
reuters.com
Barbados completes world first debt swap for climate resilience
Barbados has completed the world's first 'debt-for-climate' swap aimed at raising money to help the Caribbean island build resilience in its water systems to the damaging effects of climate change.
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tekla 💜✨ @tekla.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Fifty. Six. Percent. Increase. In. The deaths. Of. Pregnant. People.
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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
1/6 After reading Kevin Gallagher and Mark Sobel's new piece on debt relief, I note that I am also reading Martin Daunton's very interesting new book in which, early in the book, he discusses how a US declaration of non-intervention in... www.omfif.org/2024/11/dist...
omfif.org
Distressed LICs need debt relief, not more new debt - OMFIF
IMF emphasis on liquidity strains is off target
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Great overview of status and main characteristics of the wave of recent debt restructurings by JPM. Useful to think about comparisons with historical benchmarks. In most cases NPV relief is below historical median of 38-42%. A harbinger of serial restructurings?
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Are you passionate about economics? Do you want to do a master which will change your life and help you change the world. Come to the Geneva Graduate Institute!
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Josh Gabbatiss @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
To understand global south anger at the COP29 climate finance goal it's crucial to understand two key numbers. 1️⃣ "At least" $300bn/year - developed nations agreed to "take the lead" in mobilising this for developing countries 2️⃣ $1.3tn/year - a wider, vaguer goal They sound pretty big! But...
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
IMF surcharges reached US$ 1.9 billion, equivalent to 53% of lending income and 39% of operational income in FY2024. Mind you, these profits were made from the most vulnerable borrowers of the Fund. Unfortunately, the recent reform failed to address the structural problems of the policy.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Public statisticians specialised in development assistance and climate finance accounting gimmicks looking at the COP29 text.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Not representative but best coverage I saw was yours and @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social in here. Nothing of value in X. Coverage in media mostly came after the agreement (I.e not a lot of info on negotiations).
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
Obsessing over quantity and forgetting quality of climate finance is the Baku COP’s biggest failure. Not that $300bn is too low to meet demands for action and justice (though that’s true). It’s that the world’s poorest & least responsible for climate change will be robbed by it.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
Rule of law*. *Conditions and terms apply.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
Price aggregator sites meant to check for discounts have that info 😀
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
The co-facilitators of the UN Financing for Development Conference have just published an elements paper based on over 300 contributions. Important document as it sets the blueprint fro the conference next year in Spain. financing.desa.un.org/sites/defaul...
financing.desa.un.org
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
The problem with external debt financing of investment in adaptation is the currency mismatch. Projects with a lot of local content which will not expand export capacity. A recipe for chronic indebtedness and financial fragility.
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Theo Maret @theomaret.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
A thread with interesting tidbits from the new IMF guidance note on sovereign restructurings, as I read along🧵⤵️ www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
imf.org
Guidance Note On The Financing Assurances And Sovereign Arrears Policies And The Fund's Role In Debt Restructurings
Under its Articles of Agreement, the Fund may only provide financing to assist members to resolve their balance of payments problems and restore medium-term external viability and may only do so under...
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Wonder if it also has to do with risk management. I would assume that the guarantees reduce the equity cost of the loan making it attractive for banks to simply warehouse it.
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
For those negotiating in Baku on the #NCQG climate finance goal @edwickstead.bsky.social and I have calculated two new scenarios in our @cgdev.bsky.social model of baselines relating to multilateral development banks and the latest negotiating text 1/5
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Quite interesting that the last two swap deals have been funded through loans instead of bond issuances. Is this a sign of lack of appetite from the market?
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
Nothing that some hard currency debt financing on critical infrastructure for adaptation with no substantial returns cannot make worse… sorry, I meant fix 🤣
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Joe Lo @joeloclimate.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
The new #COP29 finance draft text is out and here’s the key part
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
But then, how do you fit that into a utility function? Doesnt seem rational 🧐
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Josh Gabbatiss @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
++NEW CLIMATE FINANCE TEXT++ Cut from 25 pages to 10. Number of bits in square brackets, which are undecided, cut from 415 to 46. It contains 2 options for the goal "emanating from the ministerial consultations” - one with developing country priorities and one with developed.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
US set to forgive US$ 4.5 billion in loans to Ukraine. To place this figure in context, it’s equivalent to 4.5 times the debt forgiven to 31 countries through the IMF CCRT between 2020 and 2022 (US$ 967 million). Debt relief has always been a matter of political will. www.reuters.com/world/biden-...
reuters.com
Biden administration moves to forgive $4.7 billion of loans to Ukraine
The Biden administration has moved to forgive about $4.7 billion in U.S. loans to Ukraine, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Wednesday, as outgoing officials seek to do what they can before leaving office to bolster Ukraine in its war against Russia.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
media.tenor.com
a cartoon character is holding a bunch of money in his hand and saying `` shut up and take my money ! ''
ALT: a cartoon character is holding a bunch of money in his hand and saying `` shut up and take my money ! ''
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
What a piece on academic fraud in business schools. Its mind blowing how much tampering with data has been normalised. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...
theatlantic.com
The Business-School Scandal That Just Keeps Getting Bigger
The rot runs deeper than almost anyone has guessed.
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Kevin Gallagher @kevinpgallagher.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Important new article on RMB internationalization by @marinazucker.bsky.social
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Kate Mackenzie @katemac.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
While I'm on a tear about finance solutionism; here is more evidence that insurance instruments aka "risk transfer" is/are *not* climate finance: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Climate-Hit Nations Wait Years for $370 Million Fund to Deliver
A German-led program announced at United Nations climate talks in Egypt two years ago has deployed just a tiny share of funds to the climate vulnerable countries it’s seeking to help.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Focus on the headline climate finance figure risks forgetting that the devil is in the details of quality (more grant financing + longer maturity), additionality (on top of development financing) & transparency (clear definition) on.ft.com/4fpon4J
on.ft.com
Ministers land in Baku to help break finance stalemate at COP29
Battle over money and inclusion of transition from fossil fuels in agreement dominate final week of talks
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Andrés Pertierra @andrespertierra.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Repeatedly, Cuba’s total exodus over the past 4 years (including the pandemic!) is estimated at over 20% of its nominal population Over 2 of every 10 people have left in less than half a decade
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 17/11/2024
The auctioneer for the Mozambican tuna boats got in touch (to say thanks for helping the sale get more visibilty via @alphaville.ft.com). So… any questions for them regarding the auction?
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
Vasili Grossman sobre la tragedia de un genocidio
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
If there is a US Congress hearing and people go on the record, does it remain a conspiracy theory? 🤔🍿 www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
wsj.com
Former Pentagon Official on UFOs: ‘We Are Not Alone’
Ex-government and military officials testified in the latest congressional hearing on the mysterious phenomena, which have long fascinated the public.
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Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · 21/10/2024
Acemoglu, Johnson and Williams won the Nobel prize for applying economics to the very things economics is inherently bad at figuring out. Brendan Greeley has some thoughts.... www.ft.com/content/1e25...
ft.com
The Nobel for Econsplaining
Acemoglu, Johnson and Williams won a prize for applying economics to the very things economics is inherently bad at figuring out
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 18/10/2024
💡Renewable energy is crucial for sustainable development. A new UNCTAD report, analyses global trade flows and trade policies along solar and wind energy value chains, to see how trade policy could give a boost to renewable energy's potential.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 17/10/2024
It’s a real mystery why Mercedes sales are tanking. Is it because their cars have the feel and look of an overpriced yet cheap disco? No it must be because people hate EVs 🤣
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 16/10/2024
And now we know why there was not a more significant effort to reform the surcharge policy: Because priority was given to securing a recurrent income for PRGT subsidies, easing donor pressure. This is exactly why we need IFI governance reform.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 16/10/2024
Surcharge countries still have to pay over US$ 1.7 billion per year AFTER the reform. The charges remain procyclical and the weight they represent for vulnerable countries makes it less, nor more, likely to recover and repay the Fund.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 16/10/2024
Which takes us to the surcharge reform: the beatings shall continue until morale improves… now with a shorter whip. Rates went down, but the structural issues with the policy remain.
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Daniel Munevar @danielmunevar.bsky.social · 16/10/2024
A PRGT cross-subsidy structure, funded by GRA lending profits, goes against the Fund’s principles. Restoring health to vulnerable middle-income countries should come first, not generating income to subsidize LIC lending—that's what ODA is for.
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