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Ryan Bernardoni

@dangercart.bsky.social
6.8K followers 643 following 7.4K posts

Boston Celtics and Liverpool FC and being a whiny baby about both and also playing Balatro usually for Naneinf

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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 16h
You can't look at two games of any type and know too much about a team but even that analysis finds a weak but actual predictive power from something we think is entirely meaningless. It's predictive as an additive factor to prior expectations, not as a thing devoid of context. x.com/kmedved/stat...
x.com
Kostya Medvedovsky (@kmedved) on X
I've looked at the predictive power of preseason results before, and there's real value here. I'll do full writeup/tweet thread on the methodology, but a +32.5 preseason net rating suggests we should...
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 17h
Another year without a repeat champ, clearly
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 17h
A reminder that preseason performance is surprisingly predictive of regular season performance. We all think it’s meaningless but the correlation is quite strong.
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Spencer Ackerman @attackerman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Five hundred people on hunger strike inside a for-profit ICE concentration camp in Georgia.
thecurrentga.org
Approximately 500 participate in hunger strike at Folkston immigration detention center - The Current
Approximately 500 detainees at a private ICE facility in Folkston, Georgia, launched a hunger strike to protest poor living conditions and alleged asylum protocol violations while awaiting judicial he...
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Classic "smallest man on the pitch scores with a header" goal
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Dr Robert Bohan @robertbohan.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Actual Cancel Culture of a significant cultural figure [unlike where far right extremists engage in hate speech & are held accountable]. It’s extremism like this, & the disinterest of the current UK Labour govt in stopping the shift to the far right, that’s deeply worrying.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
LASK made a strategic mistake in not doing years of cheating to build up a better roster
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jab lung @mobute.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
this pic of dario asmodeus saying something like "soon my synthetic minds’ crime spree will be unstoppable!" going around really underlines the connection between always looking *almost* like jj abrams and being rotten somewhere structurally vital inside, like pre-egg nate silver or justin theroux
dario amodei, a turbo dweeb presiding over a world-historic empire of theft, seen here with his dipshit glasses and his little curly receding hairline, probably explaining why his non-functioning device's crime spree is evidence of the same sort of diseased and predatory conscience undergirding his life's work both inside and outside silicon valley sex cults
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
The Washington Monumentals
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
The cost is probably #1 but #2 would be that you can’t channel surf during commercial breaks or when you’re nervous and want to relieve tension.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
A player option of a non-guaranteed year should almost always result in the contract ending because both sides have to want it. A coincidental opt-in (mutual option) should almost always result in the contract continuing because only either one of the two sides has to want it.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Yeah, I guess from a messaging point I get it. I just wish we would start arresting executives for the harms they cause in the name of Business under existing law.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
The "Mutual Options" that we've been seeing lately (and I assume Pritchard's is the same) are really coincidental opt-ins. Either side can opt in unilaterally. In theory, these should almost always get picked up by one side unless they have pre-negotiated a new deal to replace it.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Do you even need a new law for that? I know we don't enforce it but isn't that just... the law?
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
I have now seen Yamal's Fake Rabona and... what?
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Interesting extension for Pritchard. It's as much as they could give him per year but short and as flexible as possible. PP being a 23yo late 1st who had his rookie scale extension come up following his worst season has always been in a difficult negotiating position. Stuck there again.
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KeithSmithNBA @keithsmithnba.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Payton Pritchard is extending via the Estimated Average Player Salary (EAPS). Because his current contract is less than EAPS, Prichard is eligible to extend for 140% of EAPS with 8% raises. That should look like this for Pritchard: 28-29: $21.2M 29-30: $22.9M (mutual option)
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Either PP could opt in an extend off that or they could both forego the options and let him go to free agency with a new deal informally agreed to
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Payton Pritchard's new deal is the 15th contract extension negotiated by Brad Stevens. Under very different rules, Danny Ainge negotiated only six player extensions in 18 years.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
It's a coincidental opt-in so either party can pick it up unilaterally. If PP is bad/injured he can pick it up. If he outperforms his contract the C's can pick it up. If both sides are unhappy, or if they've negotiated a new contract to replace it, neither side opts in and he becomes a free agent.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
For that they get 10% of the total payout so it's not a guarantee of being beneficial to you, but for us they got around double what the insurance company initially wanted to pay. Also meant I didn't have to deal with the insurance company.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Basements are different than upper floors so it might not be worth it but we had water damage from ice dams and got a public adjuster to represent us to the insurance company. They become the point of contact and fight for everything covered by law, which can be a lot.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
The other most important macro-NBA story is if this CBA was a strategic set-up for a fight for a hard cap that will lead to labor strife or if the league will accept a de facto hard cap as good enough and continue to make tactical trade-offs with the union.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Personally it strikes me as a shortsighted plan that fits into the rest of how all large American businesses appear to operate now. A "highlights league" leaning into player movement rumormongering and gambling on everything might increase revenues. Will it sustain across generations? Maybe not.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
This continues to be one of the two most important macro-NBA stories. The league has clearly achieved what they set out to and are currently happy with it. Fans are... a large, diverse group whose preferences cannot easily be determined. In the long run, will this shift be good for basketball? 🤷‍♂️
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Random chance has outliers too
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
A mob constructing a guillotine outside his house chanting "NORMAL AND GOOD! NORMAL AND GOOD!"
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Oliver Willis @owillis.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
ok heres one democratic senator being clear and unambiguous about this. anyone else want to step up?
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Zach is writing again 😊 Substack 😕
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Billie Jean Sweeney @billiejsweeney.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
You can’t get more Gestapo than this…. “a criminal probe into her immigration paperwork, which her late father filled out after the family emigrated to the U.S. from Somalia when she was a child”
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Some of it is pretty easily explainable. For example: Liverpool’s front line has been Salah, Mane, Firmino, Diaz, Nunez and European players across all teams get more beneficial calls than non-Euros. Racism not anti-LFC. Other elements are harder to explain. Maybe it’s just freakishly bad luck!
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
The person who has done the most comprehensive and easily readable study was The Tompkins Times. He’s both a Liverpool fan, so it’s not entirely unbiased but is mostly just “here’s the data” and also paywalled.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
I could feel the shift from Liverpool supporters over the two weeks. The immediate reaction was “we get to be the first team to show them how we feel.” For a ton of people that quickly shifted to “I wish we had a normal match. I don’t want anything to do with this. I how we win but it sucks.”
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
That team is going to show up at your home ground and suck all the enjoyment out of it for you just by their presence and they’ll act like the victims the whole time. Sports are built on performative hate; they can’t survive angry indifference. I can understand better how Calciopoli killed Serie A.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
An hour on from the end of LIV/City and I can’t stop thinking about the Anfield atmosphere 25 minutes in. Liverpool were playing well and it was quiet. It wasn’t anger and energy. Everyone seemed tired of it all. City’s cheating might have broken the necessary illusion of sports.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
I’m not blaming the fans I’m saying the matches are poisonous because they’re an awful fan experience because City have robbed the league of its fun
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
I think you’re missing what I’m saying
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Who is blaming the other clubs? I’m saying that City’s presence in the league is going to make fans of every other club have to deal with the same miserable farce of a match that Liverpool did today. The entire experience sucks and breaks what is supposed to be the point of following sports.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
The latter
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
That’s the point. It’s just a depressing experience for everyone. Some day you’re going to look back at how you’ve reacted to your club being the greatest cheats in league history and be embarrassed. Congratulations on ruining everyone’s fun hobby. You’re selfish pricks.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Yeah, I’ll have to watch when they play Liverpool again but other than that I want no part of it. It’s just an exercise in making yourself miserable.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Fans of other clubs are going to think “we get our day to boo them and our atmosphere will make a difference.” I can tell you it’s just misery. It’s sucks to watch. The days leading up to it suck. It sucks after (most teams will not beat them).
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Every City match is going to be poisonous and awful and it’s going to do real damage to the league
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Oh they’re feeling besieged by problems? Problems of whose making I wonder? Real victims in all this, Man City.
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
They’re STILL going on about how this was a great City performance? It was 0-0 with both sides struggling to create great chances when the bullshit red happened!
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
With PSG coming to Manchester it’s important to remember that City were also cheating UEFA rules
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Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Lee Dixon just said City have been dominant since 15 minutes in. What? What has he been watching?
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Hard to devise a better metaphor for the past decade and a half of Premier League football than Man City winning while playing with an extra man.
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