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Reposted by Daan van den Broek

Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 25/09/2026

📚 Paper alert! Our paper "The 2026 cold wave brought northern Fennoscandia its coldest two-week period since 1987" is out now in Weather. 🧵(1/14)

(a) ERA5 2m temperature anomaly between 31 December 2025 and 13 January 2026, with the analysis domain (66°N–69°N, 20°E–30°E)indicated in red. (b) ERA5- based time series of the lowest 14-day mean temperature over the northern Fennoscandia analysis domain highlighted in (a) (land-only). Winter 2025/2026 is circled in red.

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Reposted by Daan van den Broek

Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

New paper by @daanvandenbroek.com and me just published in @rmets.org Weather: "The 2026 cold wave brought northern Fennoscandia its coldest 2-week period since 1987" rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... Check out the brilliant thread by Daan below 👇

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 25/09/2026

📚 Paper alert! Our paper "The 2026 cold wave brought northern Fennoscandia its coldest two-week period since 1987" is out now in Weather. 🧵(1/14)

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 24/09/2026

🌡️ ☀️ Exceptional warmth seems imminent late September and early October for western and northern Europe. Temperature anomalies of +10-+16°C are possible at 850 hPa (~1400 m altitude).

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 10/09/2026

Very heavy rainfall in northern Helsinki. The playground started to flood.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 09/09/2026

First year with a garden plot in northern Helsinki, and our pumpkin experiment certainly turned out successful. 🎃 Harvested on Sunday, before the weather turned too cold. Guesses for the weight?👇🏼

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 02/09/2026

🌡️ Unsurprisingly, the Netherlands measured it's warmest summer on record, at an average temperature of 19.3°C. 2018 is now the 2nd warmest at 18.9°C. 8 out of the 10 warmest summers on record took place since 2003.

Summer temperatures at De Bilt, in the Netherlands, with the summer of 2026 marked by a red circle. The summer 2026 was the warmest on record at 19.3°C. Black line indicates the trend between 1980 and 2026.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 02/09/2026

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 25/08/2026

Last weekend's storm in the Baltics regionally dumped >100mm precipitation. According to @edhawkins.org, climate warming caused 15-20% more precipitation than would have been the case without warming.

Last weekend's storm in the Baltic States left regionally 15-20% more precipitation than would have been the case without climate warming.

Figure shows a model run of the actual weather situation (left), a model in the cooler climate of 1950 (central panel) and the difference between the two (right), where green colors indicate more precipitation.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 25/08/2026

According to Copernicus, the global average sea surface temerature has reached its highest value since the start of the measurements. 🌡️ On 22 August global mean sea surface temeratures reached 21.10°C, exceeding the previous record of 21.09°C.

Daily mean sea surface temperature between 60S and 60N, measured between 1979 and 2026. Th current 2026 value is, the largest on record. Source: Copernicus/ECMWF

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 23/08/2026

🇱🇻 Various sources reported Latvia’s most destructive storm since January 2005. ⚡ ~160,000 customers without power at 21:00 🌳 Widespread fallen trees, blocked roads 🚆 Rail disruption 🌧️ Around half a month’s rain in one day (locally >100 mm)

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 22/08/2026

The dark nights are returning to Helsinki. 🌌 Tonight, for the first time in four months, the Sun dips more than 18° below the horizon. Instead of astronomical twilight, the darkest part of the night will be fully dark again. Only ~45 minutes tonight, but increasing from here. Autumn is coming.

Sunrise, sunset and twilight table for Helsinki in August 2026. Red boxes highlight 22 August and the astronomical-twilight column: astronomical twilight still lasts throughout the night on 22 August, while full darkness returns on 23 August, from 00:50 to 01:56. Source: timeanddate.com (https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/finland/helsinki)

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 21/08/2026

A potentially significant rainfall event deserves attention from Saturday through Sunday evening across the Baltic states and southern and eastern Finland. 🌧️ 🇫🇮 Regionally 30–50 mm 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 Local totals could exceed 100 mm ⚠️ strong winds are possible too!

Accumulated precipitation until Monday 3 am local time, as projected by the FMI MEPS model. A lot of precipitation is forecast over parts of the Baltics and southern and eastern Finland. The brighter the colors, the higher the total precipitation. The numbers indicated projected accumulated precipitation in mm.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 19/08/2026

The North Sea off the Dutch coast has just set a new temperature record. 🌊 🌡️ At Lichteiland Goeree, daily mean seawater reached 21.5°C on 15–17 August, the highest since measurements began in 1984. The current marine heatwave has now lasted 80+ days.

North Sea water temperature measured at Lichteiland Goeree, measurements starting in 1984. The black line, indicating 2026, shows the warmest year on record.

Source: KNMI

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KNMI @knmi.nl · 19/08/2026

Afgelopen weekend steeg de temperatuur van de Noordzee voor de kust van Nederland uit boven alle eerdere metingen. Bij Lichteiland Goeree, 30 kilometer uit de kust bij Hoek van Holland steeg de etmaalgemiddelde zeetemperatuur tot 21,5 graden, de hoogste waarde sinds het begin van de metingen in...

knmi.nl

Noordzee was niet eerder zo warm

Afgelopen weekend steeg de temperatuur van de Noordzee voor de kust van Nederland uit boven alle eerdere metingen. Bij Lichteiland Goeree, 30 kilom...

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 19/08/2026

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 19/08/2026

The worst of Europe’s extreme atmospheric heat is gone, but it certainly left a signature in the ocean. A new attribution study finds: - the current event in the Mediterranean ~2°C warmer due to antropogenic global warming. - seas off western Europe 1.3–1.4°C than without AGW.

Data visualisation of sea surface temperature anomalies from Copernicus, based on Copernicus Marine Service data for 13 August 2026. (dark) red tones indicate areas where sea surface temperatures were above the long-term average. The largest anomalies, reaching approximately 6°C above average, were recorded in the western Mediterranean Sea, particularly in the Gulf of Lion off the coast of southern France. Values above 5°C were also recorded in the Atlantic off the Iberian Peninsula. Cooler-than-average waters are visible in parts of the Aegean Sea. Source: eu-space.europa.eu.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 18/08/2026

Beautiful rain during sunshine at Suomenlinna yesterday evening.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 18/08/2026

It seems like the Rhine at Lobith reached the record minimum daily discharge yesterday August 17th, at 565 m³/s. With today's rainfall in the catchment area, discharge started to rise. More much-needed rain in upcoming days!

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 17/08/2026

📉 The Rhine’s discharge keeps falling: one week after reaching a record low, it has now dropped below 600 m³/s for the first time on record. 🌧️ Fortunately, the much needed rain is finally returning to the Rhine basin and the Alps, so discharge should rise again soon. 🧵 (1/3)

Graph showing the daily Rhine discharge at Lobith from June to December. In 2026 (red line), discharge fell to 569 cubic metres per second on 16 August, below the previous record of 620 in November 1947 (blue line).

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 17/08/2026

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Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Yesterday, Seinäjoki Pelmaa recorded 68.6 mm of precipitation in one hour! As far as I know, that is the highest one-hour rainfall ever recorded in Finland. The event was caused by very stationary thunderstorms that formed in the evening under a low-pressure area.

A map showing the highest 60-minute rainfall amounts in Finland on 16.8.2026.

Radar signature map of Finland showing the time when the heaviest rainfall was over Seinäjoki.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 13/08/2026

Substantial frost in northern Finland during the last 2 nights. Here are today's minimum temperatures. 👇️ Also in the rest of the country, minimum temperatures are below the climatological average. It felt like fall, this morning! 🥶 🍂

Minimum temperatures across Finland this morning. Widespread frost was observed in Finnish Lapland. Elsewhere, temperatures were also below the climatological norm.

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Branie @braniedepodcast.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Ach wat: we geven er nog een weg. Het Ajax Jaarboek 2025/2026, met onze presentator als een van de auteurs, bezorgd door @uitgeverijbrandt.bsky.social. Essentieel. Onmisbaar. Prachtig. 'Rood ruggetje' nummer 34 in de reeks. Volg ons. Repost. Maak kans. Vrijdag de winnaar! #Ajax #AjaxJaarboek ❌❌❌

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 10/08/2026

The Rhine at Lobith has just set a new *all-time* low-discharge record. 📉 Daily mean discharge fell to 614 m³/s on 9 August. This is below the previous record of 620 m³/s, set in November 1947. The fact that this record was set in August makes it extraordinary.

Daily mean Rhine discharge at Lobith from June to December. All years are shown in grey, with the previous record year (1947) in blue and 2026 in red. Discharge fell to a record-low 614 m³/s on 9 August 2026, below the previous minimum of 620 m³/s on 6 November 1947.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 10/08/2026

The extreme drought and record low river discharge in Western- and Central Europe is not over: The next heatwave is on the way. The situation will get worse still.

2m temperature anomaly on Friday, according to the ECMWF weather model.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 10/08/2026

❄️ Snow on the mountain tops around Longyearbyen, with a freezing level around 250m. Winter is coming, despite another round of heatwaves in western Europe.

Webcam looking over Longyearbyen, picture from Windy.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 10/08/2026

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 04/08/2026

🌡️ Another day with stations in the Netherlands 🇳🇱 measuring over >35°C yesterday, and potentially one more today. Summer on steroids.

Maximum temperatures in the Netherlands on Monday August 3rd.

Source: Weerplaza.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 31/07/2026

🌡️ The warmth peaks today in Finland, with regionally 26-28°C inland. ⛈️ In the afternoon and evening, (severe) thunderstorms move from southwest to northeast over the country. ⚠️The storms can especially be severe in parts of western, central and northern Finland.

FMI warns for severe thunderstorms in the whole country. The storms can produce intense lightning, torrential rainfall, and strong wind gusts.

The yellow warnings are for wind gusts >15 m/s, in the counties with orange warning wind gusts >25 m/s are possible.

The location of the thunderstorms around 18:00 local time according to the MEPS forecast. The red arrows indicate the approximate direction of the thunderstorms.

Source: weatherinfo.fi.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 30/07/2026

The Rhine’s discharge keeps setting new summer record lows. And we’re still only in July.

Time series of the lowest daily mean Rhine discharge measured during June–August at Lobith, the Netherlands, from 1901–2026. Despite large year-to-year fluctuations, summer low flows show a statistically significant downward trend. The latest value, 709 m³/s on 29 July 2026 (highlighted), is the lowest summer discharge ever recorded. Despite occurring only halfway through July. Data: Rijkswaterstaat.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 30/07/2026

Another day with temperatures >35°C in the Netherlands' south yesterday. All land stations except Den Helder and the Frisian Islands measured temperatures >30°C.

Yesterday's (Wednesday 29 July 2026) maximum temperatures in the Netherlands.

Chart: Weerplaza.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 25/07/2026

Strong convective rainfall incoming 🌧️

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 23/07/2026

Strong aurora activity seems to be present, but the nights are still far too bright in Finland this time of year. Photo taken at 23:15 local time.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 23/07/2026

Not sure if cumulonimbus or nuke (😉)

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 21/07/2026

🥶 Just as we're entering the climatologically warmest period of the year (late July), today will be remarkably cold. The forecast maximum temperature at Helsinki Airport today is only around 14°C - roughly 9°C below the late-July median.

Chart of daily maximum-temperature climatology at Helsinki-Vantaa Airport, Finland, from May through August. The black line shows the 1991–2020 median, red and blue lines the 90th and 10th percentiles, dashed lines the record highs and lows since 1959, and the green line observed daily maxima in 2026. Around 21 July, when the climatological median maximum is about 22-23°C, a green marker shows a forecast high of only 14°C. Potentially a record-cold day for this specific date. Data source: Finnish Meteorological Institute.

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

I've never seen anything like it. Salta, Argentina, has just recorded its hottest night on record during the climatologically coldest time of the year. The minimum overnight temperature did not fall below 26°C (78.8°F), pulverizing the previous monthly record by 7°C.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 18/07/2026

Wow, -84.1°C! 🥶 Concordia🇦🇶 measures a temperature only half a degree above its all-time cold record (August 2010). According to @pinturicchio60.bsky.social, this is the lowest temperature recorded on Earth since 2012.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 18/07/2026

A large area from southwestern to central and eastern Finland will see large sums of rain this weekend, regionally up to 70-100 mm.

Accumulated precipitation over Finland until Sunday late evening.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 18/07/2026

🫗 The Rhine at Lobith has now reached its lowest discharge ever recorded *in the entire summer* (June–August).

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 17/07/2026

Mooi dat dit onderwerp nu ook breder wordt opgepakt. Voor een Nederlandstalige uitleg: ik schreef hier vorig jaar al over voor Trouw, over de groeiende energie-onbalans, afnemend albedo en rol van broeikasgassen. Lees het hier: 👇🇳🇱 www.trouw.nl/wetenschap/w...

trouw.nl

We hoeven niet te rekenen op een meevaller op klimaatgebied, laten nieuwe metingen zien

De aarde slaat meer energie op dan eruit gaat. Wetenschappers waarschuwen dat klimaatmodellen die uitgaan van de minste opwarming geen steun vinden bij de observaties in de echte wereld.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 17/07/2026

🌍 NASA's CERES satellites show that Earth's energy imbalance has more than doubled since the early 2000s. The planet absorbs substantially more energy than it emits back to space. This means that warming in the coming years *could* outpace previous expectations.

Graph showing Earth's energy imbalance based on NASA CERES satellite observations (12-month moving average) from 2001 to 2025. The red curve shows absorbed solar radiation, which has increased steadily over time. The blue curve shows outgoing longwave radiation, which has also increased as Earth has warmed, but more slowly. The growing gap between the two curves represents Earth's energy imbalance, reaching about +1.24 W/m² by 2025. A positive energy imbalance means Earth is absorbing more energy than it emits, causing heat to accumulate in the climate system

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 16/07/2026

🫗 Yesterday, the Rhine at Lobith reached its lowest level ever recorded in July. And we’re only halfway through the month.

Graph showing the lowest daily mean Rhine discharge recorded in July from 1901–2026 at Lobith, Netherlands. Values vary substantially between years, but the long term downward trend is significant. The 2026 value (770 m³/s on 15 July, highlighted in red) is the lowest July value in the entire record, well below previous years. Data source: Rijkswaterstaat.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 14/07/2026

A glimpse of Europe’s changing climate: 🫗 Rhine & Meuse are exceptionally low for mid-July - discharge levels normally seen in Sep/Oct. 🚢 Shipping and industry are already affected. 🌧️ Little effective rain expected, Rhine flows may fall below 1976 levels 📉

Average daily discharge of the Rhine. The red line indicates 2026's discharge, the grey lines show the other years, starting at 1901.

Daily discharge is reaching the lowest levels on record for July, at values that are normally measured only in October or November.

The discharge is likely to become lower still, as drought continues in the upcoming perdiod.

Source: Rijkswaterstaat/Deltares/NOS.

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 12/07/2026

Convection is initiating in southern Finland again. Thunderstorms and torrential rain are possible.

Cumulonimbus clouds (Thunderstorms) towards the northeast, seen from Northern Helsinki.

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Panu Maalampi @pmaalampi.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Majestetic Arcus clouds in Helsinki 🌩️Summer heat, thunderstorms and a exciting Norway-England football match. What more can a meteorologist wish for the summer holidays that just started? 😎

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 11/07/2026

Very intense thunderstorms moving inland in/from the capital area right now. Take caution!

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 10/07/2026

Deaths linked to Europe’s June heatwave 🇧🇪 Belgium: 1,747 🇳🇱 Netherlands: ~480 🇫🇷 France: >2,700 🇩🇪 Germany: ~5,120 🇪🇺 Europe: ~20,000 Extreme heat kills. ⚠️

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Daan van den Broek @daanvandenbroek.com · 10/07/2026

☀️ Warmth returns to Finland, but so do heavy showers and thunderstorms ⚡️ The highest risk in southern Finland: ⛈️ Saturday night into Sunday ⛈️ Sunday daytime The MEPS latest forecast loop below shows where the heaviest showers may develop. (1/2)

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