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Reposted by Calum Weir

ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Labour’s Second Chance with Muslim Voters? Our latest focus groups found cautious optimism about Andy Burnham. In our new Substack by @christabelcoops.bsky.social, we explore what it will take to win back voters who have moved to the Greens, and what it means for Labour in Holborn and St Pancras.

thinklabour.substack.com

Labour’s Second Chance with Muslim Voters

Christabel Cooper, Interim Director of Political Strategy

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I grew up in Northern Ireland around this time so always feel a weird trap between having felt it was scary (sort of in abstract) but it always seeming worse down south CMAT's latest album deals with a bit of this from an Irish POV, good write-up of it here: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

theguardian.com

The emblem of modern Ireland? Not fiddles and Guinness but a soulless shopping plaza | Emer McHugh

The singer CMAT dances around a retail centre in a video for her new album. It is the elegy those of us who grew up in the post-Celtic tiger recession have been craving, says Irish writer Emer McHugh

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Our @thinklabour.bsky.social report on the Greens challenge to Labour is in the Guardian today. Our diagnosis of why Labour's vote fell in cities is high housing costs for young people, plus progressives worried that Labour doesn't reflects their values. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

Greens just four points behind Labour in urban areas, poll reveals

Exclusive: UK’s Green parties could take 40 seats if result replicated at next election, according to Labour-linked thinktank

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Dan Mead @danmead.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Bristol has a fast growing economy. So why does Labour face electoral danger in the city? Our new polling shows that Labour is losing a crucial set of voters in big cities: those that feel like they are financially struggling. Why are they financially struggling? Housing. A thread 🧵:

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Great cast list for our next ThinkLabs event - Sam Freedman, Jack Straw and Jonathan Jones KC join @thinklabour.bsky.social's Millie Woods to discuss her latest report on whether it is possible to "re-wire" the state. Sign up for "The Lame Leviathan" event here: luma.com/br9vg44k

luma.com

ThinkLabs: The Lame Leviathan · Luma

Building on The Lame Leviathan, join Jack Straw, Sir Jonathan Jones KC, Amelia Wood and Sam Freedman to discuss on the growth of public law and discuss whether…

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Interesting findings in the latest polling by @opiniumresearch.bsky.social. Burnham becoming PM has significantly improved voters' perceptions of the Labour Party - across the board.

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

That’s the worst one in a long time - An unmatched talent in songwriting, singing, philanthropy and good humour

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

My favourite of all the dril tweets

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Wife and I both pissing ourselves with laughter but also green with envy at this description of the Viennetta factory

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Fun new wee game on PollingPolis. Have a see at how accurately you can draw the trends below!: www.pollingpolis.co.uk/pencil.html

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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

People often assume they know what Labour members think. We decided to ask them. The results might surprise you. Labour members back higher defence spending in an increasingly uncertain world and support reducing welfare spending.

theguardian.com

Labour members ‘have tougher view on welfare than you might think’, poll suggests

Survey finds party members see health, the economy, cost of living and climate crisis among biggest challenges

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Some fun new driving test polling from us below!:

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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Why is it still harder to book a driving test than get Glastonbury tickets? Our latest substack looks at why the driving test backlog still hasn't been fixed six years after the pandemic - and argues the real obstacle isn't logistics, it's politics.

thinklabour.substack.com

Why Josh Widdecombe’s wife is a victim of the cost of living

Amelia Wood, Policy Advisor

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

I think its still really quite underpriced just how much Reform’s lead last year was driven by people who are traditionally non-voters and specifically over immigration as an issue That issue having dropped in salience is probably another factor for Reform VI apathy

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

I think the Reform one may be just as interesting though - Small amount look like they’re moving towards Tories, but it looks like quite a few are going *somewhere else* - Be that Restore or just not voting at all They’ve dropped about 10% of their average retention rate since this time last year

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Here is the pollingpolis.co.uk average of where 2024 Labour voters are going. Notable uptick of returning 2024 voters and downtick (?) of Greens

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

For a bit more context, our summary is now showing an average Labour lead for the first time in a *while*

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

bsky.app/profile/owen... - Basically this from @owenwntr.bsky.social

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

For anyone using pollingpolis.co.uk at the minute, would encourage you to turn off the LOESS average to just see how fast the momentum is moving for Labour. Not scientific but have tried to highlight it below:

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Latest leader approvals 🌹Burnham bumps up to +19, 8 higher than Keir’s high of 11. 🌳Badenoch down slightly to break even 🔶Davey drops back to -11 💚Polanski is at -24 ➡️Farage drops to another low, by far his lowest since the election at -32

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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

The National Care Service has been promised before. Why could this time be different? Our latest substack by Policy Director, @abbyabhaya.bsky.social, explores the politics of care reform, intergenerational fairness, and whether Labour can finally deliver a National Care Service.

thinklabour.substack.com

The debt of dignity - reviving the National Care Service

Abby Jitendra

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Slow news day! Some thoughts from a focus group here, feel free to read:

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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Today Britain has a new Prime Minister. So we brought together a focus group with Labour considerers to ask a simple question: what do they actually think of Andy Burnham? Read about the challenges he faces in public opinion in our latest substack, by @cwp-weir.bsky.social

thinklabour.substack.com

Turn and Face the Strange.

Calum Weir, Research Manager

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Our first focus groups on Andy Burnham with Labour considerers with a spectrum of views. Interesting North/South divide - Southerners simply know less about him. There's hope he'll be more representative of "Labour values" than the previous government – will be important that he lives up to that.

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Slow news day! Some thoughts from a focus group here, feel free to read:

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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Who is Labour for? With a new PM stepping into number 10 on Monday, that question has never been more important. At ThinkLabour, we’re keeping it front and centre. Yesterday we sat down with the Deputy Leader of the Labour party, Lucy Powell, to tackle it head on.

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

For anyone with even a passing interest in polling, this is a fantastic resource, created by @cwp-weir.bsky.social, Research Manager at @thinklabour.bsky.social, which collates all the latest public headline polling, but also pulls out demographic detail from the tables. www.pollingpolis.co.uk

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

I love feature requests! Can’t guarantee it, but let me see what I can do

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Ach that’s incredibly kind! RIP 538, the streets will never forget you

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Hahaha, good Q! Very much just a force of habit before Reform rose in the polls - Used to do three letter acronyms but when they rose there wasn’t a standard three letters (some pollsters used REF, others RFUK, etc.) Probably should just be REF though, good point

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Oh that’s odd! Let me have a dig

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Thanks for having a read! This is only the surface, there are all sorts of metrics (like party gaps and approval) to explore. There's a built-in guided tour on the site if you want the hands-on version. Have fun!: pollingpolis.co.uk

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

You can also do 2024 vote as a fun alluvial! Very handy for getting a sense of where vote fallout is going.

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Most trackers stop at the headline numbers. PollingPolis also tracks crossbreaks: age, gender, region and 2024 vote, compiled from published pollster tables. Here is an example of this, with 2024 Labour voters:

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

On top of that, you can also see who runs hot or cold for each party, on average! This should give you an at-a-glance idea of how polling firms differ.

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Pollsters differ. They have weird house effects. Filter to one, or open 'Compare Pollsters' to see house effects side by side.

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

The main chart shows every poll as a dot, with a LOESS average running through them. Hover a dot for the pollster, dates and full numbers.

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Yesterday, as a personal project, I put out a UK poll tracker: pollingpolis.co.uk It has UK Voting Intention, Best PM, Net Approval and Vote by 2024 Vote, Region and Age. A quick tour of how it works 🧵

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

He has a vast amount more *bottle* than quite a few of the others

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

That would just be returning the favour!!

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Great suggestions! Let me see what I can do

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Hello! Outside of my work at @thinklabour.bsky.social, I’ve been squirrelling away at a polling aggregator. This is www.pollingpolis.co.uk! It has all the usual stuff but, crucially, also has a wee view for Age, Gender and Past Vote, plus much more for customising and sifting through. Have fun!

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Very very very exciting but also I would imagine there’ll be a lot of:

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Dan Mead @danmead.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

It looks like Labour both consolidated the progressive bloc and increased turnout to win in Makerfield Great rapid work by my research colleagues @christabelcoops.bsky.social @cwp-weir.bsky.social @dylancridland.bsky.social

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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

I’m biased, but if you read any electoral strategy takes today, make it this one:

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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

A remarkable Labour win last night. The real lesson of Makerfield? In our latest substack, Christabel Cooper explains why rebuilding a larger progressive coalition, while persuading more transactional voters that Labour can stand up for them and deliver in office is the path to beating Reform.

thinklabour.substack.com

The real lesson of Makerfield

Christabel Cooper, Director of Research

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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 19/06/2026

It is extremely important that Labour understands that the movement of voters between Lab and Ref was not the crucial factor, it was consolidation of the anti-Ref vote and Lab voters turning out in droves. Otherwise Burnham will make the same mistakes as Starmer in targeting only one set of voters.

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