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Cullen Hendrix

@cullenhendrix.bsky.social
5.8K followers 420 following 1.3K posts

Senior Fellow at Peterson Institute. Sustainability, security, and political economy. Heart masquerading as head since 1977. You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company does.

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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Something tells me this isn't the guy to get to the bottom of the Cornell 7 rape allegations:
at which Kotlikoff delivered the opening remarks. Following the debate, on the walk from Goldwin Smith Hall to the parking lot at Day Hall, Kotlikoff was questioned by a small group of Students for a Democratic Cornell (SDC) members who asked him about freedom of speech and the school's Expressive Activity Policy, which imposes significant limitations on students' ability to protest,[17] and expressed concerns about suspensions of student demonstrators. Although Kotlikoff largely did not answer, the students continued questioning him as he entered his car. Kotlikoff accelerated his vehicle into one student and, after hitting him, turned and rolled over another student's foot before driving away.[18][19] In a later university statement emailed to students, faculty, and staff, Kotlikoff claimed that students were "banging on [the car's] windows" and "shouting".[20] Video evidence of the incident published by the Cornell Daily Sun showed that both of these claims were false.[21][19] The student who's foot had been run over said he had been too fearful of retaliation to press charges "considering Michael Kotlikoff is the boss of CUPD". SDC later told the Cornell Daily Sun that "there was no attempt to intimidate Kotlikoff, physically or verbally and students consistently remained a safe distance away from him.”
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
School music programs are getting absolutely bodied by tariffs, per @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/b...
The effective tariff rate on instruments in June was about 13 percent, said Cullen Hendrix, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That was down from a peak of nearly 24 percent last September but more than twice as high as before Mr. Trump’s second term.
Band and orchestral instruments have been hit the hardest, he said. In the second quarter of this year, imports of instruments were down nearly 20 percent from the same period in 2024. Imports of orchestral string instruments, including violins, violas and cellos, dropped 50 percent. Brass instruments fell 43 percent.

“It’s hitting the horns, it’s hitting the strings, it’s hitting the percussion,” Mr. Hendrix said. “All of those things combined are kind of sapping the available pool of tools that we can provide these children to begin their journey.”
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Looking at the longer series, the generational shift in labor share is striking; the shaded areas are the periods when members of that generation entered the workforce. Elder and junior millennials may occupy the same generation, but they are living very different lives.
A line graph from FRED titled "Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Share for All Workers" plotting worker compensation index levels from 1947 to present. Four rounded, shaded blocks mark the periods when different generations entered the workforce: Boomers (1965–1984) in red, showing high but fluctuating levels above 110; Gen X (1984–2000) in blue, showing relative stability around 108–113; Millennials (2000–2016) in purple, highlighting a steep downward slide from 113 to under 100; and Gen Z (2016–Present) in yellow, showing labor share continuing at historic lows below 100.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
If you have the stomach for it, the videos of the Nepalese flash flood/landslide are terrifying. I can only bring myself to post a still. Human highlighted for a sense of scale.
The landslide struck Tibet's Gyirong county at around 9am on Wednesday, causing major casualties and leaving a number of people missing, according to state media. The column of earth and dust appears at least 100 feet high and moving at an impossible rate of speed.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
I think that's part of it, yes. Made richer by the fact that Conn-Selmer is owned by John Paulson. Yes, this John Paulson.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
From Claude's lips to God's ears.
The actual problem you're identifying is deeper: LLMs are computationally expensive to run at scale, and there's no clear path to profitability that doesn't involve either:

Drastically raising prices (loses market share)
Cutting corners on quality (what you're experiencing)
Finding a killer application that justifies the CapEx (hasn't happened yet)
Massive efficiency gains (happening slowly)
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
US student visa issuances dropped by about a third through September 2025, per @piie.com. Higher ed is a crucial service the US sells to global talent, but shifting immigration policy is putting a massive brake on demand, harming higher ed and US soft power.
Line chart from PIIE titled "US student visa issuance in 2025 dropped by about a third through September," showing cumulative monthly F-1 visa issuances from 2017 to 2025. A prominent maroon line tracks 2025, revealing a steep decline compared to typical historical years, sitting at roughly 230,000 by September.

The Historical Baseline (2017–2024, excluding 2020): Most years follow a consistent S-curve. Issuances start slow from January to April, rise sharply from May through August (the peak prep season for the fall academic term), and plateau through December. These years cluster together, finishing between 350,000 and 450,000 total issuances, with 2023 marking the highest curve on the chart.

The 2020 Outlier: The line for 2020 sits flat along the bottom of the chart due to pandemic-related disruptions, barely reaching 100,000 by December.

The 2025 Trend Line: Highlighted as a thick maroon line, the 2025 data tracks closely with historical norms until April. Starting in May, the trajectory falls noticeably flat compared to typical years. The line cuts off at September 2025 at approximately 230,000 issuances—roughly a one-third drop compared to the 300,000 to 370,000 range seen in September of normal historical years.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
If you're wondering what a hero actually looks like, here's one. This NICU nurse in Tehran saved three newborns as her hospital was being bombed. Some people run into the fire. Some start the fire and go golfing.
A NICU nurse in Tehran with three infants in her arms as US/Israeli bombs hit her hospital.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Killer live episode of @piie.com Tradewinds today featuring @adamposen.bsky.social, @chadpbown.com, @arvind2011.bsky.social, Mary Lovely, and Mari Pangestu - our version of the '27 Yankees.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Ron Burgundy (aka Will Ferrell in Anchorman) obviously lying about his exercise routine.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
In five minutes at the last No Kings protest in Denver I spoke with the Colorado Communist Party and a finance guy who'd made an elaborate sign based on this to protest insider trading. If you have the tech vest capitalists AND the communists, you have the beginnings of a movement.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Funny, but I don't remember family planning and parental leave policy being a big part of the NBA's CBA negotiations. It may be in there, but it's not one of the headline outcomes reported. I wonder why?
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
The new @vdeminstitute.bsky.social report is out; it should be sobering both in the US and abroad. On V-Dem’s Liberal Democracy index the United Stated dropped by a total of 0.18. This reduction is about three times larger than the country experiencing the second-largest drop over the year.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
As the Hormuz crisis becomes a food security crisis, the @wfp.org is going into 2026 in a massive funding hole due to aid retrenchment by the US and many European donors facing the prospect of rearmament. The geopolitics driving the crisis are also leaving the cupboard bare for crisis response.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
2025 was a no-good, very bad year for U.S. musical instrument imports. Total down 15%, band/orchestra instruments down even more. About 75% of the drop came from Chinese exports. When the main supplier of student instruments slows, your kid’s string quartet becomes a trio.
Bar chart titled “US Imports of Musical Instruments (HS92), 2024 vs. 2025.” It shows year-over-year percentage changes in inflation-adjusted U.S. imports across instrument categories. All categories declined. Total imports fell 15.3%. By category: Pianos & keyboards −18.7%, string instruments (e.g., violins) −18.6%, wind instruments −29.0% (largest drop), percussion −20.0%, electric instruments (e.g., guitars, keyboards) −7.7% (smallest drop), mechanical instruments (e.g., music boxes) −28.0%, and instrument parts −9.4%. Bars extend downward from zero, highlighting across-the-board declines, with wind and mechanical instruments experiencing the steepest contractions while electric instruments and parts fell less.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
One of my first memories of @theonion.com
Satirical campaign poster contrasting Jimmy Carter's focus on energy efficiency vs. Ronald Reagan's America strong rhetoric.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
For decades, wealthy countries' food aid was a backbone of emergency response. That role is shrinking: the US is in retreat, other AEs increasing spending on defense. Meanwhile, hunger risks are rising with climate shocks, conflict, and population growth. Who will step in? And how? 2/5
The picture is even worse for acute hunger: people facing near-term
catastrophe/starvation if relief is not forthcoming. In 2017, 124 million people
faced those conditions. By 2025, that number had more than doubled to 319
million—nearly the population of the United States (figure 2). Virtually all of
these people live in developing economies, and nearly 70 percent live in conflictaffected and fragile states (WFP 2025a).
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
During the first five years of the war, the vast majority of coalition deaths were American, but between 2006 and 2011, a significant proportion were amongst other nations, particularly the United Kingdom and Canada which had been assigned responsibility for the flashpoint provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, respectively. This is because in 2006, ISAF expanded its jurisdiction to the southern regions of Afghanistan which were previously under the direct authority of the U.S. military. The UK in particular suffered a high number of deaths relative to other countries, having been in charge of the highly hazardous Helmand region;[9] both Denmark and Estonia, which were part of the British-led Task Force Helmand,[10][11] also suffered high death rates, with Danish troops having the highest death rate of any country in the war as of 2009.[12] In later years, Georgia became the largest non-NATO contributor to Afghanistan and paid a heavy toll with the highest casualty rate, with all of the 32 deaths occurring in Helmand.[13]

As Robert Gates pointed out on 10 June 2011, in his "last policy speech" as U.S. Secretary of Defense, "more than 850 troops from non-U.S. NATO members have made the ultimate sacrifice in Afghanistan. For many allied nations these were the first military casualties they have taken since the end of the Second World War."
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
There is no point in dancing around this. @mdebolle.com and I recorded several months ago but the point is no less relevant today; new episode of @piie.com Policy for the Planet podcast on critical minerals and US critical mineral strategy. Available on your platform. www.piie.com/newsroom/pol...
But I want to be very clear about this because although I am from the United States, I am not speaking for the United States. And I think that many advanced economies and many lower and middle income economies for that matter need to be just as concerned about the potential for geopolitical meddling and mineral coercion coming from the United States as they are coming from places like Russia or China. It's starting to look a little 19th century out there in the international system, and that is not a status quo ex ante we want to return to.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
This was really good. This para especially. But worth remembering that striking originality and empirical breakthroughs are still qualities assessed subjectively. This will make gatekeepers more, rather than less, powerful and node centrality more, rather than less, important for success.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Y'all, this new National Security Strategy is WILD. "Continental Europe has been losing share of global GDP—down from 25 percent in 1990 to 14 percent today ... But this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure."
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Tariffs and economic uncertainty are hurting US musical instrument imports that serve the beginner market. The beginner of today is the big spender of tomorrow. Cutting off access for starter instruments eats the US musical instrument industry's seed corn. Via @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The figure shows year-over-year changes (2024 vs. 2025) in US musical instrument trade from January to August, highlighting a clear split between weakening imports and relatively stable exports. Overall imports of instruments and parts are down 9 percent, with sharp declines in student- and school-oriented categories such as pianos (HS 9201, -20.3 percent), violins and cellos (HS 9202, -10.8 percent), wind instruments (HS 9205, -27 percent), and percussion (HS 9206, -11.3 percent). Exports, by contrast, are only 1.8 percent lower overall. The one major import outlier is electric instruments (HS 9207, +2.6 percent), suggesting resilient demand for guitars, synths, and other creator-economy gear even as other segments soften. The data point to three dynamics shaping the market in 2025.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
And they say there are no good use cases for AI (NOTE: GENERATED WITH AI).
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Tiny trade value (0.04% of global trade). Massive cultural engine. A minute on why musical instruments matter.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Loved joining @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social, Julie Robbins (Earthquaker), and John Mlynczak (NAMM) on @piie.com’s Trade Winds. Tariffs + uncertainty = massive headwinds for U.S. instrument makers. Let’s not let music become trade-war collateral. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixP8... #music #trade #NAMM
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Wonder if the author is the one in Trump's ear about South African refugees.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
These economic conditions – Wall Street steaming ahead, the real economy facing gale-force headwinds – aren’t some accidents. They’re the direct result of wide-eyed, broad-daylight policy choices. Tariff policies and policy instability are doing exactly what many of us warned they would, just on a longer fuse.
I don’t know how well you remember the run-up to Iraq, but it feels familiar: anyone who understood counterinsurgency or Iraq’s social fabric knew we’d win the easy war and lose the hard one. Yet we charged in anyway.
We’re doing it again.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Chef's kiss, no notes, America. This is where we are. I'm so ashamed.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
When political risk types say we're in unprecedented times, they're right. 2025 combines high geopolitical risk (90th percentile) and off-the-charts trade policy uncertainty. We haven't seen anything like this in my lifetime. Look at how 2025 blows up the x-axis.
Variable
2025 value
Z-score
Percentile
Interpretation
GPR (Geopolitical Risk)
152.28
1.69
90th
Very high but not unprecedented (comparable to early 2000s Iraq/Afghanistan years)
TPU (Trade Policy Uncertainty)
613.93
5.94
100th
Completely off the charts — more than 5.9 σ above the mean
First factor (F1)
2.45
4.79
100th
Completely off the charts — nearly 5 σ above the mean.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
I am sorry but Milei looks like the aging frontman of an indie sleaze band back for one last cash grab ... which isn't a bad metaphor, to be honest.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Love to see a packed house for @piie.com's discussion of the role of the dollar. If you can't be here now, be here online! www.youtube.com/live/jvh8P-8...
Joe Gagnon presenting research to a full conference room.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Putting numbers to vibes. The confluence of these levels of global geopolitical risk and global trade policy uncertainty hasn't been seen in at least 40 years (as far back as both series go).
Scatterplot of the geopolitical risk index and trade policy uncertainty index, where higher values indicate greater instability. 2025 stands out for extreme trade policy uncertainty and very high levels of geopolitical risk, approaching/surpassing that during the breakup of the Soviet Union and the aftermath of 9/11.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Yes. Disney probably thinks they are Ariel or Mulan. They're acting a lot more like Ursula and Shan Yu.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
The @vdeminstitute.bsky.social scored the United States a 0.75 on the Liberal Democracy Index in 2024. Higher = more democratic. I'm putting the over/under at 0.6 for 2025 - what you got? For reference, the last year the USA scored a 0.6 was 1968.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Back in March I warned that tariffs could shrink U.S. drummers’ product choices, especially Canada’s #SABIAN cymbals—one of the Big 4. After a January rush to beat expected tariffs, U.S. imports of Canadian perc instruments are now down 17% vs. 2024. Look at April! www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
A table showing that US imports of Canadian percussion products have fallen 17% year-over-year from 2024 - 25% if one doesn't count front running of tariffs, with abnormally large imports in January 2025.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Evidently the 'team of Ph.D. level experts in your pocket' does not know the definition of "exogenous", which seems like it might be relevant for PhD-level research.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Apropos of nothing, the taller candidate has won 2/3rds of US presidential elections since 1960.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
More of this, please.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
And now my boss and @piie.com president @adamposen.bsky.social has a statement as well. Here's where this kind of self-deception puts us.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
China wasn't a major destination for US musical instrument exports - but it's gotten a lot smaller since Liberation Day. In May, US instrument exports to China were down 80%! Down 30% year to date from 2024.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Since April, Canadian exports to USA are down 14.5% from same months in 2024 with just the sectoral (autos, steel & aluminum, energy & potash) tariffs in place. Imagine what this picture looks like with a 35% tariff. Source: US Customs. #tradewar #tariffs #Canada #USMCA
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
Don't you know it ... and here I was killing time looking at changes in import shares from 2020 to 2025 - two of the countries taking market share from Chinese imports (Indonesia and Japan) could be facing much higher tariffs come August:
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Great! Now do oil and gas and military & defense industrial complex! Self-selection encourages these dynamics, as do the policy mixes the different parties offer. Maybe Vance should ask himself why the GOP has lost so much ground with the highly educated.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Was wondering when this would be updated to reflect Liberation Day and the resulting fallout. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is starting to look a lot like the hockey stick graph on global temperature.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
In March, these cymbals retailed for $319.95 (Zildjian A) and $329.99 (SABIAN AA). Post Liberation Day, they now retail for $339.95 and $344.99. This was imminently predictable: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
I'm an 80s kid. I've seen this movie before. Except the aiding and abetting is happening in reverse.
President Ronald Reagan with José Napoleón Duarte.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
It won't be easy for US universities to heed this advice. But they should. And most importantly: they should recognize the shared existential threat to their role in a free society and their number one mission: driving out darkness with light. And that it's coming for all of them - sooner or later.
From the NY Times op-ed by M. Gessen:

There is a way for universities to fight back. It requires more than refusing to bend to Trump’s will, and it requires more than forming a united front. They must abandon all the concerns — rankings, donors, campus amenities — that preoccupy and distract them, and focus on their core mission: the production and dissemination of knowledge. Intellectuals have adopted this strategy to fight against autocrats in other countries. It works.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Yes, yes we were.
Cullen Hendrix writes:

One of the ironies of the Trump administration is that they are at least rhetorically committed to undoing some of the US industrial policy that actually had been working to reshore manufacturing: things like the IRA and the Infrastructure, Investment and Jobs Act. In that case, it looked like offering carrots like grants and tax incentives for firms to locate green energy and EV production here in the USA. The Trump approach wants to remove some of those supports and rely on the tariff instead. But in a world of tariffs and tariff retaliation, the goods that would be produced in the United States would be hard pressed to compete outside of the US market. There will be some re-shoring, sure, but it will come with a lot of economic pain and with, I suspect, pretty marginal benefits in terms of employment. I hope I am wrong about that.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
It's 4/4 Day! That's something to be happy about. Some links to my work below. I guess if I had to get a day job @piie.com was a pretty nice landing ;-) Instruments are the tools we use to express joy, sorrow, pain, and elation. They’re conduits for the sonic expression of the human spirit.
An image of Cullen Hendrix drumming behind a wall of smoke at the release show for Lost Walks' Blood Lantern.
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Cullen Hendrix @cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
I was skeptical of Trump's promise to get gas down around $1.87 a gallon. Here's what I had to say to @factcheck.org about it back in October; I guess he really wanted that $1.87 gas.
Hendrix said, “My net-net is that Trump would not be able to deliver on this promise unless the global economy craters, the US cuts itself off from global energy markets, and US producers are convinced to produce at price levels that would not sustain operations.”
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