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Mike Copage

@copage.bsky.social
1.6K followers 682 following 128 posts

Head - Climate & Security Policy Centre with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Formerly Govt 🇨🇦 climate mitigation & adaptation plans/policy

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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
It was great to join ABC Radio National Breakfast to talk through #COP31 this morning. Take a listen here, and visit coterran.co for some more thoughts on why COP31 is about meeting the Pacific's greatest #security threat: #climatechange coterran.co/cop31-is-an-...
coterran.co
COP31 is an Investment in Australian and Pacific Security
On the eve of COP30, in my first public discussion as Director of CoTerran, it was a pleasure to join Sally Sara on ABC Radio National Breakfast to talk through Australia's bid to host COP31. You can ...
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coterran.bsky.social @coterran.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
@copage.bsky.social Great to join ABC Radio National Breakfast this morning to talk through Australia's bid to co-host #COP31 with the Pacific, and why the benefits for Australia's partnership with the Pacific outweigh the costs of hosting: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQna...
youtube.com
COP31 is an Investment in Security for Australia & the Pacific - ABC Radio National 10-11-2025
YouTube video by CoTerran
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
I'm excited to share the launch of CoTerran, a new #climate and #security advisory. coterran.co/newsletter/launch Stay tuned for updates on analysis, products, and services by subscribing through coterran.co as I build it out.
coterran.co
CoTerran: Climate & Security Advisory
Insights on climate risks to peace and security.
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coterran.bsky.social @coterran.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Excited to share the launch of CoTerran, a #climate and #security advisory coterran.co/newsletter/l...
coterran.co
CoTerran's approach to climate and security
Launching CoTerran, a new advisory focused on risks at the nexus of climate and security.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
It was a privilege to host a workshop earlier this month in Canberra, on behalf of the @aspi-org.bsky.social, in partnership with adelphi and the Toda Peace Institute, on the theme of "Advancing Climate, Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region." #climatesecurity
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Peter Gleick @petergleick.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Every President Since Lyndon Johnson Has Recognized the Security Risks of Climate Change. Then Came Trump. My article on this. www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
motherjones.com
Every president since Lyndon Johnson has recognized the security risks of climate change. Then came Trump.
Turning a blind eye will only make the United States weaker.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
@aspi-org.bsky.social's 2025 edition of 'Agenda for Change', a major report on strategic challenges the next Australian Government must grapple with, is now out. In it, I argue that strengthening climate risk governance should be a national security priority. www.aspi.org.au/report/agend...
aspi.org.au
Agenda for change 2025: Preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world - ASPI
By Raelene Lockhorst, Chris Taylor, Marc Ablong PSM, Bethany Allen, Justin Bassi, Dr Alex Bristow, Henry Campbell, Danielle Cave, Michael Copage, James Corera, Dr John Coyne, Dr Malcolm Davis, Dr Fitriani, Andrew Henderson, Jocelinn Kang, Nerida King, Dr Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan, Ian SatchwellFor more than a decade, which has included the 2013, 2016, 2019 […]
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Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 In ‘Agenda for change 2025: Preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world’, ASPI experts analyse the strategic challenges facing Australia and provide recommendations to assist the next Australian Government. 🔖 Read it now ➡️ bit.ly/4izTkUA
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
This week PM Albanese announced Adelaide as the preferred city to host COP31 (if the bid survives the election). No knock to Adelaide, but if COP31 is meant to be co-hosted with the Pacific, then decisions on the host city should be done with Pacific input: www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-successful...
aspistrategist.org.au
A successful COP31 needs Pacific countries at the table | The Strategist
Australia’s bid to co-host the 31st international climate negotiations (COP31) with Pacific island countries in late 2026 is directly in our national interest. But success will require consultation wi...
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Great to join Thomas Oriti on ABC News Radio yesterday to talk about our report on climate risks to Indonesia's security. Take a listen (Part 1 here, Part 2 below!), read through a quick summary here (www.aspistrategist.org.au/climate-risk...), or the full report (www.aspi.org.au/report/indon...)
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Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 'Indonesia in 2035: Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific' reveals Indonesia’s economic and national security interests will be strained by climate risks in coming years, with consequences stretching across the Indo-Pacific. 🔖 Read the report 👉 bit.ly/4i7eyc4
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Our new report out this morning assessing how climate risks could disrupt the economic and security interests of Indonesia - and in turn, those of Australia and the broader region. Thanks to the team, esp. Dr. Robert Glasser and @isabellebond.bsky.social www.aspi.org.au/report/indon...
aspi.org.au
Indonesia in 2035: Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific region is particularly exposed to climate impacts, and Indonesia, like many countries, will be severely affected by climate impacts in the decade to come. The effects of climate-amplified disasters, combined with the political, social and economic consequences of climate impacts originating from within and across the region, will strain Indonesia’s economic and national-security interests.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Politico shared a leaked memo earlier this week to replace USAID with a new 'humanitarian assistance' organization, so I thought it was worth looking through what the plan is www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-new-us-hum...
aspistrategist.org.au
A new US humanitarian agency must operate without political blinders | The Strategist
The United States government is considering replacing USAID with a new agency, the US Agency for International Humanitarian Assistance (USIHA), according to documents published by POLITICO. Under the ...
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
I'm having a hard time reconciling the existence of ONI's assessment, with the scant two-sentence reference to climate's impact on Australia's security and interests in the newly released Independent Intelligence Review today. www.pmc.gov.au/sites/defaul...
pmc.gov.au
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
Sharing a declassified version of ONI's assessment on Australia's security risks from climate change is critical. Without that, it's hard to have a full conversation on the risks of climate change, or costs of inaction. Great piece in the Saturday Paper. www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environ...
thesaturdaypaper.com.au
Exclusive: Secret briefings on climate national security risk
The government invited only the progressive independents – excluding the Greens, the Coalition and the relevant parliamentary committee – to a briefing on the still-unpublished Climate Risk Assessment...
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Isabelle Bond @isabellebond.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
24-26% of Australia’s GDP. This is the monetary equivalent the US has lost in damages from the LA fires. The experiences of mercenaries in warfare offer several lessons regarding climate-fuelled disaster responses and national preparedness that can help predict challenges and inform policy.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
The LA fires are what happens when compounding climate risks catch us off guard. More than enough analysis from the past week driving that home - yet misinformation still abounds, so I think continued clarity on climate's role is still helpful. www.aspistrategist.org.au/la-fires-cha...
aspistrategist.org.au
LA fires: changing climate demands constant and focused preparation | The Strategist
The fires in Los Angeles are estimated to be the most expensive disaster in US history at US$250–275 billion, or 24 to 26 percent of Australia’s annual GDP. That loss has accrued in just over a ...
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
After three years in Victoria/Melbourne, I feel obliged to yell at the clouds that there are too many dummies behind the wheel on the roads. I'm sure unsurprising to Melburnians, but why are drivers here so entitled/stupid? Back to regularly scheduled climate security programming shortly.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 23/12/2024
Nuclear isn’t a silver bullet: it’s one piece of silver buckshot in the clean energy race. In most countries, it’s not public option holding it back. Rather it’s cost, and the long time it takes to build. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Cancelled NuScale contract weighs heavy on new nuclear
The failure of a high profile small modular reactor (SMR) contract in the United States has prompted concerns that Gen IV nuclear may be further off than expected.
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Tyler Norris @tnorris.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Beware the fusion hype cycle… “Commonwealth Fusion is bringing fusion to VA” is the headline — wow! — until we’re informed they haven’t produced more power than consumed & may or may not do so by 2026! www.latitudemedia.com/news/commonw...
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Isabelle Bond @isabellebond.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
My latest in the Strategist @aspi-org.bsky.social @copage.bsky.social www.aspistrategist.org.au/catastrophic...
aspistrategist.org.au
Catastrophic sea level rise possible within our lifetime? Yes, here’s how | The Strategist
‘Runaway ice loss causing rapid and catastrophic sea level rise is possible within our lifetime,’ according to a joint emergency statement released by more than 300 scientists at the inaugural Austral...
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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
I get the political calculation here. I'm just gonna point out that the predominance of research into European parties' efforts to outflank the far right like this has found that they merely legitimised the far right's political framing and led voters to opt for the "full fat" version.
Screenshot of a UK Labour Party tweet, in which the Tweet says "The Tories lost control of our borders. Labour is taking it back," and the image is of Keir Starmer with a headline saying "Keir Starmer has organised the three largest deportation flights in UK history."
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Callan Bentley @callanbentley.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
There is a project in the US that aims to monitor for intentional addition of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, a la Neal Stephenson's TERMINATION SHOCK. #SRM ⚒️ "The U.S. Is Building an Early Warning System to Detect Geoengineering" (GIFT LINK) www.nytimes.com/2024/11/28/c...
nytimes.com
The U.S. Is Building an Early Warning System to Detect Geoengineering (Gift Article)
Balloon launches from around the world are part of a new kind of global alarm system: One that can detect if another country tries to dim the sun.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
Excellent study on how broad carbon pricing in Canada does not massively drive up food prices. Lo and behold, my colleagues who designed and got it off the ground knew what they were doing. Sadly carbon pricing's biggest problem in Canada isn't the policy, but how poorly it has been communicated.
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Gerald Butts @gmbutts.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Trump probes for weakness in negotiations. He found it yesterday in Premier Smith of Alberta. www.ctvnews.ca/politics/we-...
ctvnews.ca
'We need to address those issues': Alberta Premier Danielle Smith won't denounce Trump tariff threat
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should address U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's border concerns in the next two months, before he's back in the White House, instead of comparing our situ...
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Isabelle Bond @isabellebond.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
www.aspistrategist.org.au/climate-secu...
aspistrategist.org.au
Climate security is an opportunity in Australia’s regional strategy | The Strategist
From Pacific leaders to regional intelligence analysts, climate change is consistently identified as the foremost security issue for the Pacific island region. Yet Australia’s current defence and inte...
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Erin Sikorsky @erinsikorsky.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
A call to abolish climate summits “is dangerous and plays directly into the hands of populists like Trump, Milei, or the AfD, who seek to dismantle global climate protection. [These summits] are the “sole platform where poorer nations can directly challenge [the] US [and] EU” (via @carbonbrief.org)
spiegel.de
(S+) Meinung: COP29 in Baku: Warum Uno-Klimagipfel weiterhin unverzichtbar sind
Selbst Menschen, denen Klimaschutz wichtig ist, halten die Uno-Gipfel inzwischen für überflüssig. Die Baku-Konferenz gab ihnen Auftrieb. Doch bei allem Reformbedarf: Sie abzuschaffen, wäre zutiefst an...
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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 22/11/2024
No one could have predicted this.
nbcnews.com
Trump's transition team turns to Project 2025 after disavowing it during the campaign
Transition officials have used Project 2025's extensive personnel database for potential candidates to hire for the incoming administration, a person familiar the plans said.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
An excellent paper by my colleague at the Climate and Security Policy Centre, @isabellebond.bsky.social
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Isabelle Bond @isabellebond.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Hi all, I am new to Bluesky - thought I would share a paper I recently published in the International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence regarding issues of climate security @tandfresearch.bsky.social. If interested, please follow the link below! doi.org/10.1080/0885...
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Ailie Gallant @ailiegallant.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
I've just created the "Climate Change Downunder" starter pack for all things climate change related in Australia. Here you'll find scientists, academics and professionals who work in the climate change space in Oz. Hit me up with new accounts to add! go.bsky.app/TK2pwCz
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Re-upping for reaction! Keeping US engaged on intl. resilience in next 4 years is necessary. They aren't the only players, but adaptation gap in SE Asia/Pacific hard to close without any US support. Question is whether these angles will be salient; and even if so, could they be counterproductive?
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Scott Hamilton @sdhamiltonvic.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Dear Bluesky friends, please see AUS energy & climate starter pack for those new to #Bluesky #ClimateChange #EnergyTransition #RenewableEnergy @simonahac.bsky.social
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Union of Concerned Scientists @ucs.org · 20/11/2024
NOAA’s life-saving work is at risk. If #Project2025 moves forward, the agency could be dismantled, downsized, or privatized. In his latest blog, UCS’s Juan Declet-Barreto highlights why NOAA’s work is critical for addressing climate change.
blog.ucsusa.org
We Need a Strong and Independent NOAA to Protect Our Lives and Homes from Climate Change
NOAA lays the unbiased, scientific bedrock of data and information for decision- and policy-making that can deliver for us a climate-resilient future.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Excellent piece on the core mission of tackling #climatesecurity. Preventing the threat multiplying effects of climate is far less complicated & costly than managing failure; just as it is with climate mitigation and adaptation. Not possible in all cases, but we must everywhere we can.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
My take on rationale countries like Australia can use to sustain US investments in climate, esp. resilience abroad, over next 4 years. Important conversation but by no means surefire, and not without complications. Keen to discuss flaws and risks. www.aspistrategist.org.au/to-work-with...
aspistrategist.org.au
To work with US on climate, focus on national security and economic ‘value propositions’ | The Strategist
Even as the US is set to withdraw again from the Paris Agreement, and potentially the entire UN Framework Convention on Climate Change process, Australia can leverage its partnership with Washington t...
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Jennie King @jkingy.eurosky.social · 18/11/2024
I got started on one in the 5 mins between meetings - but very much a WIP for now! go.bsky.app/J3783tF
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Is there a solid list of climate misinfo researchers out there yet - or a climate denier moderation list? The former would be excellent, but the latter necessary as the conversations here grow. Would be best for a climate misinfo expert/org to curate, but happy to start either one if not.
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John Cook @johnfocook.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Just published a paper in Nature Scientific Reports where we've trained a model to automatically detect logical fallacies in climate misinformation - part of our project using AI to debunk climate myths www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
A technocognitive approach to detecting fallacies in climate misinformation - Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports - A technocognitive approach to detecting fallacies in climate misinformation
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Ayesha Tandon @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org · 18/11/2024
I'm super excited to share @carbonbrief.org's new and improved attribution map! Use the map to explore 600+ extreme weather attribution studies from all around the world: buff.ly/3URzsmI And check out my in-depth Q&A on attribution for all you need to know about this evolving field: buff.ly/4hRt4Gc
buff.ly
Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world - Carbon Brief
Attribution studies calculate whether, and by how much, climate change affected the intensity, frequency or impact of extremes – Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has...
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Will Yeates @wyeates.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
Sixth typhoon in a month makes landfall in Philippines - BBC News
buff.ly
Sixth typhoon in a month makes landfall in Philippines
Super Typhoon Man-Yi is the latest storm forecast to potentially cause further life-threatening conditions.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
One of the best things about working on climate is that my ass-kicking sister bsky.app/profile/cait... does too! Notable highlights include surprising ourselves and our bosses during introductions from separate sides of a 🇨🇦 federal (me) and British Columbia provincial (Caitlin) conference call.
bsky.app
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Erin Sikorsky @erinsikorsky.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Another important NOAA role not discussed here is international coordination for open data access, working with allies and partners to share info and best practices, and supporting US space and foreign policy. Such work can't be replaced by the private sector. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/c...
nytimes.com
Could Trump’s Return Pose a Threat to Climate and Weather Data?
Project 2025, the conservative playbook, calls for breaking up the federal agency that maintains weather data and collects climate change information.
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Kayly Ober @kayly.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
At #COP29? The State Department is running an immersive climate security exercise at the ODI pavilion at 1200-1300. Participants will inhabit a fictional country that suffers from instability & faces unique vulnerabilities. The goal? To strengthen resilience in the face of coming climate shocks…
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Tom Ellison @123tomellison.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Meanwhile, that unease is our intuitive sense of risk and uncertainty. It speaks to why uncertainty on a high stakes issue like climate should spur more action, not less, even as we refine forecasting and models. Wrote more on this from a security perspective here:
justsecurity.org
Don’t Ignore the Security Risks of Climate Change Because of “Uncertainty”
Taking action on climate change requires moving beyond double standards about uncertainty and treating it in the same way as other security risks.
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Erin Sikorsky @erinsikorsky.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
A few summers ago while laid up with COVID, I started a Twitter thread tracking military deployments in response to climate hazards. That l'il thread is now a real project at the Center for Climate and Security -- you can read our October update here: councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/11/13/o...
councilonstrategicrisks.org
October 2024 Update: Military Responses to Climate Hazards (MiRCH) Tracker - The Council on Strategic Risks
In October 2024, the Military Responses to Climate Hazards (MiRCH) tracker identified 48 military deployments in response to severe storms, floods, and wildfires.
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Sophia Rini @sophiarini.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
We need more data. We need more data. We need a strong NOAA, DOE, EPA. We need international cooperation and more data. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Climate Science Can’t Keep Up With the Warming Planet
We need more timely updates in response to the rapid changes to the climate.
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Tom Ellison @123tomellison.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
Agreed that an ill-informed/ad hoc push toward solar geoengineering might accelerate, which brings near term disinformation and geopolitical risks before we even get to the huge dilemmas about deployment and governance. @erinsikorsky.bsky.social wrote about this here:
councilonstrategicrisks.org
Geoengineering and Climate Change in an Age of Disinformation and Strategic Competition - The Council on Strategic Risks
The United States must lead the development of guardrails and norms to manage the scientific challenges and geopolitical security risks associated with geoengineering.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
This is exactly the kind of dumb but plausibly effective tech bro advocacy under Trump (twitter guy, not @davidho) that raises the risk of unplanned/tested/guided solar geoengineering being deployed if climate impacts really hit the fan in the next few years.
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