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Mike Copage

@copage.bsky.social
1.6K followers 682 following 128 posts

Head - Climate & Security Policy Centre with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. Formerly Govt 🇨🇦 climate mitigation & adaptation plans/policy

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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
It was great to join ABC Radio National Breakfast to talk through #COP31 this morning. Take a listen here, and visit coterran.co for some more thoughts on why COP31 is about meeting the Pacific's greatest #security threat: #climatechange coterran.co/cop31-is-an-...
coterran.co
COP31 is an Investment in Australian and Pacific Security
On the eve of COP30, in my first public discussion as Director of CoTerran, it was a pleasure to join Sally Sara on ABC Radio National Breakfast to talk through Australia's bid to host COP31. You can ...
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coterran.bsky.social @coterran.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
@copage.bsky.social Great to join ABC Radio National Breakfast this morning to talk through Australia's bid to co-host #COP31 with the Pacific, and why the benefits for Australia's partnership with the Pacific outweigh the costs of hosting: www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQna...
youtube.com
COP31 is an Investment in Security for Australia & the Pacific - ABC Radio National 10-11-2025
YouTube video by CoTerran
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
I'm excited to share the launch of CoTerran, a new #climate and #security advisory. coterran.co/newsletter/launch Stay tuned for updates on analysis, products, and services by subscribing through coterran.co as I build it out.
coterran.co
CoTerran: Climate & Security Advisory
Insights on climate risks to peace and security.
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coterran.bsky.social @coterran.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Excited to share the launch of CoTerran, a #climate and #security advisory coterran.co/newsletter/l...
coterran.co
CoTerran's approach to climate and security
Launching CoTerran, a new advisory focused on risks at the nexus of climate and security.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
I'm incredibly grateful to my workshop partners and their staff in making this come together - as well as the panelists, facilitators, and participants for their insights and contributions, and the Embassy of Ireland to Australia, and the Ambassador, for their support and his motivating remarks.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
A more detailed summary of the workshop, and discussions it sparked, will be made available in the coming weeks.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
I am both hopeful and have renewed energy to work among our partners to advance these conversations in the years to come - and should #COP31 be hosted by Australia and Pacific partners, I look forward to working together to shine a light on the solutions we need and must implement rapidly.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
This is not just possible, but necessary, to match the borderless nature of compounding and cascading risks we are all facing.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
My takeaway was that by advancing awareness and sharing the expertise each community, country, and region has developed on its own to these challenges, our response to the risks posed by climate change can be more than the sum of our parts.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Our workshop helped bridge understanding between both shared and distinct sources of risk and resilience across these regions. Rather than leave empty-handed, we developed roadmaps for action in our region that can build on the substantial momentum and practical solutions being advanced globally.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Perhaps nowhere are these preventative and resilience-building solutions more complex, diverse, and needed than across the breadth of Asia and the Pacific.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
It's easy to get stuck admiring the substantial risks #climate disruption poses to global peace and security, to paraphrase remarks shared earlier this month by the Ambassador of Ireland to Australia Tim Mawe. As he so rightly noted, we have to get on with solutions.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
It was a privilege to host a workshop earlier this month in Canberra, on behalf of the @aspi-org.bsky.social, in partnership with adelphi and the Toda Peace Institute, on the theme of "Advancing Climate, Peace, Security, and Geopolitical Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region." #climatesecurity
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Peter Gleick @petergleick.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Every President Since Lyndon Johnson Has Recognized the Security Risks of Climate Change. Then Came Trump. My article on this. www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
motherjones.com
Every president since Lyndon Johnson has recognized the security risks of climate change. Then came Trump.
Turning a blind eye will only make the United States weaker.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
That includes making sure future assessments and plans grapple with complex, cross-border risks - much as we identified in our recent report exploring a stress-testing climate scenario for Indonesia in 2035: www.aspi.org.au/report/indon...
aspi.org.au
Indonesia in 2035: Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific - ASPI
By Michael Copage, Dr Robert Glasser, Isabelle BondThe Indo-Pacific region is particularly exposed to climate impacts, and Indonesia, like many countries, will be severely affected by climate impacts in the decade to come. The effects of climate-amplified disasters, combined with the political, social and economic consequences of climate impacts originating from within and across the […]
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
None of this needs to reinvent the wheel - I am looking forward to digging into the National Climate Risk Assessment once it is fully released! - but the bar needs to keep rising in future.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Crucially, no government should think a single assessment of adaptation plan is sufficient. Our awareness of risks grows as the science develops, and the intensity of impacts rises with every failure to reduce global emissions.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
A regular statement on climate risks and plans, in every Government's mandate, ensures public awareness and governance remains fresh and relevant. While Governments have to grapple with many concurrent strategic challenges, climate disruption is sadly a reality for ours and many generations to come.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
My recommendations build on many have already called for. The next Government should: · Legislate regular climate risk assessments and adaptation plans, with a biennial statement to Parliament; · Centralize climate risk governance in PM&C; · Release public versions of existing assessments asap.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
@aspi-org.bsky.social's 2025 edition of 'Agenda for Change', a major report on strategic challenges the next Australian Government must grapple with, is now out. In it, I argue that strengthening climate risk governance should be a national security priority. www.aspi.org.au/report/agend...
aspi.org.au
Agenda for change 2025: Preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world - ASPI
By Raelene Lockhorst, Chris Taylor, Marc Ablong PSM, Bethany Allen, Justin Bassi, Dr Alex Bristow, Henry Campbell, Danielle Cave, Michael Copage, James Corera, Dr John Coyne, Dr Malcolm Davis, Dr Fitriani, Andrew Henderson, Jocelinn Kang, Nerida King, Dr Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan, Ian SatchwellFor more than a decade, which has included the 2013, 2016, 2019 […]
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Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 In ‘Agenda for change 2025: Preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world’, ASPI experts analyse the strategic challenges facing Australia and provide recommendations to assist the next Australian Government. 🔖 Read it now ➡️ bit.ly/4izTkUA
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
There's lots of road to travel, very quickly, before COP31 if it goes ahead here - and progress to make on this approach so that it's a success. This wasn't a great start, and it's important to call that out so that similar decisions are avoided down the track.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Some thoughts here from myself and Blake Johnson on how any Australian Government should approach COP31 post-election - both that it is in Australia's strategic interests, and that those interests are primarily in strengthening relationships with the Pacific.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
This week PM Albanese announced Adelaide as the preferred city to host COP31 (if the bid survives the election). No knock to Adelaide, but if COP31 is meant to be co-hosted with the Pacific, then decisions on the host city should be done with Pacific input: www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-successful...
aspistrategist.org.au
A successful COP31 needs Pacific countries at the table | The Strategist
Australia’s bid to co-host the 31st international climate negotiations (COP31) with Pacific island countries in late 2026 is directly in our national interest. But success will require consultation wi...
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
...and part 2!
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Great to join Thomas Oriti on ABC News Radio yesterday to talk about our report on climate risks to Indonesia's security. Take a listen (Part 1 here, Part 2 below!), read through a quick summary here (www.aspistrategist.org.au/climate-risk...), or the full report (www.aspi.org.au/report/indon...)
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Australian Strategic Policy Institute @aspi-org.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 'Indonesia in 2035: Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific' reveals Indonesia’s economic and national security interests will be strained by climate risks in coming years, with consequences stretching across the Indo-Pacific. 🔖 Read the report 👉 bit.ly/4i7eyc4
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
That reflex by countries to turn inwards in the face of climate pressure will be a mistake, leaving us all worse off. We can avoid this by proactively identifying and collaborating on mutual pressures and interests across the region.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
All of this has the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tension, and a move away from investing in crisis prevention and response. Climate will amplify those pressures, and may limit the sources of support and assistance as countries turn to challenges within their own borders.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
The most concerning pathways to climate disruption in Indonesia are to its economic growth, food security, and coastal population displacement. Those effects could drive political unrest, opportunistic activity among non-state actors, and heightened regional tensions.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Indonesia is a pivotal country, and increasingly important in years to come. We are concerned with how climate affects its security not because it is incapable of responding, but that despite its considerable capacity, it may face consequences that are challenging if not managed proactively.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
In general, we find that Southeast Asia's climate and security risks remain under-appreciated and require far more attention by governments in the region to identify and implement proactive strategies.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
We hope the report informs a crucial conversation in both Indonesia and Australia on the importance of preparing for complex cross-border climate risks. Look forward to releasing reports for other countries soon, much as we have assessed Australia's insufficient preparedness for climate risks.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Our new report out this morning assessing how climate risks could disrupt the economic and security interests of Indonesia - and in turn, those of Australia and the broader region. Thanks to the team, esp. Dr. Robert Glasser and @isabellebond.bsky.social www.aspi.org.au/report/indon...
aspi.org.au
Indonesia in 2035: Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific region is particularly exposed to climate impacts, and Indonesia, like many countries, will be severely affected by climate impacts in the decade to come. The effects of climate-amplified disasters, combined with the political, social and economic consequences of climate impacts originating from within and across the region, will strain Indonesia’s economic and national-security interests.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Thanks Josh!
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
That's going to be harder for it to do with all of the assessment capacity that has been scrapped already - so if there's a genuine desire to achieve any of this (and there might be some, even if it's not a widely held desire), there are some strong course corrections needed.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Unsurprisingly it looks like a reactive organization that won't be fit for purpose because it will be told what to respond to. If the goal is an organization that prevents crises from becoming problems, it will fail if it's held back from building resilience where and how the analysis leads it.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Politico shared a leaked memo earlier this week to replace USAID with a new 'humanitarian assistance' organization, so I thought it was worth looking through what the plan is www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-new-us-hum...
aspistrategist.org.au
A new US humanitarian agency must operate without political blinders | The Strategist
The United States government is considering replacing USAID with a new agency, the US Agency for International Humanitarian Assistance (USIHA), according to documents published by POLITICO. Under the ...
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
That assessment was already done. If this Independent Intelligence Review can be released (as it should be), so can ONI's assessment.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
It's not that it doesn't acknowledge the link for Australia - but that in comparison to a wide range of other issues, and the fact that Australia has assessed its risks through ONI, the Independent Intelligence Review merely suggests potential links and the need for more assessment capacity.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
I'm having a hard time reconciling the existence of ONI's assessment, with the scant two-sentence reference to climate's impact on Australia's security and interests in the newly released Independent Intelligence Review today. www.pmc.gov.au/sites/defaul...
pmc.gov.au
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
Sharing a declassified version of ONI's assessment on Australia's security risks from climate change is critical. Without that, it's hard to have a full conversation on the risks of climate change, or costs of inaction. Great piece in the Saturday Paper. www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environ...
thesaturdaypaper.com.au
Exclusive: Secret briefings on climate national security risk
The government invited only the progressive independents – excluding the Greens, the Coalition and the relevant parliamentary committee – to a briefing on the still-unpublished Climate Risk Assessment...
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Isabelle Bond @isabellebond.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
24-26% of Australia’s GDP. This is the monetary equivalent the US has lost in damages from the LA fires. The experiences of mercenaries in warfare offer several lessons regarding climate-fuelled disaster responses and national preparedness that can help predict challenges and inform policy.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
That takes leadership and unity which goes beyond any one crisis, or electoral cycle. I hope we all get some of that, soon.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
My take away isn't that LA wasn't prepared for fire - but that being prepared to react isn't sufficient. Adapting to climate change means grappling with big costs, difficult decisions, and no absolute certainty - and none of that's feasible if we fail to keep emissions from sending us off a cliff.
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
The LA fires are what happens when compounding climate risks catch us off guard. More than enough analysis from the past week driving that home - yet misinformation still abounds, so I think continued clarity on climate's role is still helpful. www.aspistrategist.org.au/la-fires-cha...
aspistrategist.org.au
LA fires: changing climate demands constant and focused preparation | The Strategist
The fires in Los Angeles are estimated to be the most expensive disaster in US history at US$250–275 billion, or 24 to 26 percent of Australia’s annual GDP. That loss has accrued in just over a ...
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Mike Copage @copage.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
After three years in Victoria/Melbourne, I feel obliged to yell at the clouds that there are too many dummies behind the wheel on the roads. I'm sure unsurprising to Melburnians, but why are drivers here so entitled/stupid? Back to regularly scheduled climate security programming shortly.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 23/12/2024
Nuclear isn’t a silver bullet: it’s one piece of silver buckshot in the clean energy race. In most countries, it’s not public option holding it back. Rather it’s cost, and the long time it takes to build. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Cancelled NuScale contract weighs heavy on new nuclear
The failure of a high profile small modular reactor (SMR) contract in the United States has prompted concerns that Gen IV nuclear may be further off than expected.
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Tyler Norris @tnorris.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Beware the fusion hype cycle… “Commonwealth Fusion is bringing fusion to VA” is the headline — wow! — until we’re informed they haven’t produced more power than consumed & may or may not do so by 2026! www.latitudemedia.com/news/commonw...
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