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Housing is the greatest domestic challenge we face today – Fixing it requires action, not rhetoric

For anyone unfamiliar with new housing minister James Browne TD and what approach he may take, he wrote this piece for local Wexford newspapers at the beginning of the year which may offer some insight into his thinking on housing 👇🏼 www.independent.ie/regionals/we...

independent.ie

The most recent information shows that from 2020 up to the middle of 2024, 3,444 new homes had been completed in Wexford, a remarkable increase from the 1,797 in the previous four years. And in the fi...

I expect Ardagh to be appointed to a junior ministry next week, while Dolan may also be considered for promotion.

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Meanwhile, in 2020, Norma Foley nominated Martin for Taoiseach and was remarkably - given her status as a first-time TD - appointed to Cabinet later that day. James O’Connor also nominated Martin that day, but remained on the backbenches throughout the last Dáil.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

No coincidence that Albert Dolan and Catherine Ardagh - both widely viewed as rising stars within FF - were chosen to nominate Mícheál Martin for Taoiseach. Looking back to 2016, Lisa Chambers and Thomas Byrne nominated Martin - both were appointed to the Fianna Fáil frontbench soon after.

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The answer? Not long! Is the relationship between the Ceann Comhairle and the opposition irreparable? Difficult to see a route for the CC to gain the confidence of the Dáil after today’s open revolt.

Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Remarkable. Somewhat reminds me of some of those chaotic Brexit votes in Parliament, or the final days of Truss! How long before we see a Flynn-esque contribution directed at the Ceann Comhairle!? youtu.be/1lmzfSZKLVA?...

youtu.be

Raging Stephen Flynn totally loses it as Lindsay Hoyle goes missing after Gaza vote debacle

YouTube video by PoliticsJOE

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Happy New Year to the League of Ireland!

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For me, the key question is not *whether* MPs should be active on local issues, case work, etc - but rather what the correct balance to strike is between those issues and national, legislative matters.

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However, MPs' constituency duties can positively feed in to their legislative function - and detachment from constituents is not conducive to strong trust or faith in the democratic system. That said, trust in politics has continued to decline despite the perceived increased focus on 'the local'.

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This is rather unfathomable in Irish politics, with our localist political culture and electoral system featuring intra-party competition. There are certainly pertinent questions to be asked about whether the constituency focus is the most effective use of national parliamentarians' time.

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Britain’s Winston Churchill shortage

This is excellent from @estwebber.bsky.social. I've long been fascinated by the presence of MPs with no discernible link to the constituencies which elect them. However, this piece notes that amongst those ranks are some of the most impactful, consequential MPs! www.politico.eu/article/brit...

politico.eu

Westminster is becoming a local place for local people — and that means fewer star politicians.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

I’ll keep an eye out for it! I enjoyed reading some of Duverger’s work on party organisation as part of lit review for my undergrad dissertation.

Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

Remarkable approach to diplomacy.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Fascinating data. The Brexit figure is particularly intriguing - would love to explore the leave/remain breakdown amongst those who still identify it as a top 3 issue, as well as how they voted in 2024!

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Reposted by Conor Ruth

Ed Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Made this chart yesterday and can't stop thinking about it - how Brits plan to vote according to what they see as the top issues...

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Congrats! Would love to read this if it’s available anywhere online 📖

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Really important read. "Climate change is making geopolitics less stable, which harms climate action. This will worsen climate change, meaning more geopolitical instability, and so on." theconversation.com/a-doom-loop-...

theconversation.com

A ‘doom loop’ of climate change and geopolitical instability is beginning

Climate change is driving inflation and instability, which harms climate action. But it’s not too late to escape the doom loop.

Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

The Conservative and Reform figures on socialism are... interesting! YouGov's age breakdown is also worth reviewing

First time in quite a while visualising data like this - any constructive feedback welcome! Next step is to dive deeper into history for a broader timeframe, include local election results, as well as analysis of the other regions - Connacht-Ulster, Munster, and the Rest of Leinster.

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Sinn Féin's growth has been quite consistent both nationally and within Dublin - no major volatility, overperformance or underperformance.

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The same exercise for Fine Gael illustrates its volatility in terms of seat share. 2011 is particularly interesting - FG in Dublin underperformed its national FPV but overperformed in terms of seat share. Since 2020 however, FG performance in Dublin accurately reflects its national performance.

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I chose the 1997 GE as a starting point, as this accounts for Bertie Ahern's time as FF leader - their most recent Dublin-based leader. It also facilitates pre-economic crash and post-crash comparisons, with the 'earthquake' election of 2011 showing greater divergence than in previous GEs.

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Graph 1 charts the relationship between FF's first preference vote (%) nationally vs in Dublin, whilst graph 2 charts reviews the % share of seats. On both metrics, FF in Dublin underperform relative to their national performance. This was most apparent in 2016.

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Many polls - albeit with the necessary health warnings re: regional crosstabs, as outlined by @kevcunningham.bsky.social - have indicated FF's underperformance in Dublin relative to national figures. My exercise seeks to assess whether such underperformance is borne out by GE results.

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Lots of talk pre #GE24 about Fianna Fáil's relative electoral weakness in Dublin. I've looked at the numbers and compared the performance of the 3 largest parties' in Dublin to their respective national performances, using both share of the first preference vote and seat share as relevant metrics.

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Another one from 2016, prompting the following exchange!

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Good read. Informed commentary and analysis on Irish politics can be lacking in the UK, making pieces like this all the more important!

This year, both parties have chosen 2 Dublin TDs, 2 TDs from the rest of Leinster, and 2 Munster TDs. Considering the backlash against the perceived geographical imbalance of Cabinet selection in 2020, it's interesting that neither party have selected a Connacht/Ulster representative.

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In terms of FG, 3/4 of their 2020 team were appointed to Cabinet, with Hildegarde Naughten becoming a 'super junior'. In 2016, 5/6 became Cabinet ministers whilst Eoghan Murphy was appointed as a junior DPER minister. Admittedly there were more posts to distribute due to that Govt's composition.

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Should we read much into the selection? In 2020, 3 members of FF's negotiating team were appointed to Cabinet, 1 was made a 'super junior', and the 2 remaining members became Ministers of State. In 2016, FF did not formally enter government and therefore comparison cannot be made.

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The rate of turnover is notably high. Of the 10 who participated in 2016, only 3 remain in the Dáil - Charlie McConalogue, Jim O'Callaghan, and Simon Harris, now Taoiseach. Compared to 2020, only 2 TDs remain on the respective negotiation teams - FF's Darragh O'Brien and FG's Paschal Donohoe.

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Now that both FF and FG have announced their teams for Programme for Government negotiations, it's interesting to look back at the respective teams for the previous two negotiations. What can we learn from the evolution of FF & FG government negotiation teams since 2016? #GE24

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Agreed. Prof. Michael Gallagher is an immensely astute and authoritative analyst - a joy to listen to!

A very impressive performance!

Eoin Hayes in Dublin Bay South, Sinéad Gibney in Dublin Rathdown, Pádraig Rice in Cork South-Central, Elisa O’Donovan still in the hunt in Limerick City also. For Labour, Robert O’Donoghue in Fingal West, Mark Wall in Kildare South, Marie Sherlock in Dublin Central. Dublin South-West too.

Some really impressive results for the SocDems today - particularly considering their greatest asset (Holly Cairns) was sidelined for much of the #GE24 campaign! Similarly, the Labour Party have quietly put in the groundwork and rebuilt support in many traditional heartlands.

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Prof. Michael Gallagher of Trinity College Dublin providing an exhibition in electoral analysis on RTÉ Radio One. A true master of the art!

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If this comes to fruition, I’d still expect FF and FG to bring some independents into the fold to provide a buffer - even if this means fewer ministerial posts for both parties to distribute amongst their parliamentary parties.

Quite happy with how these #GE24 projections have held up today. Revising some constituencies throughout the day, I think there’s a very real possibility that FF and FG will be able to reach/exceed the magic number of 88.

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Dee Ryan proved particularly transfer friendly in the Mayoral election - averaged an additional c.272 votes per count. Think she's in the driving seat. Notable that Ryan somewhat surprisingly attracted more votes from Sheehan than O'Donovan did on that occasion

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Very true. Although it will never be a hot button political issue, for decentralisation to gain popular support I feel it has to be sold as a means towards a positive end - why do we need more powerful local government? For better local service provision, for an improved public realm, etc.