Reposted by Conor RuthGavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 23/05/2026Gerry Hutch (13.8%) has increased his share by about 1pc in boxes so far tallied. Malachy Steenson (11%) is 4pc higher than the same boxes last time. At this pace there is a seat for one or the other, in a GE 383
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 30/01/2026“For voters, the high street has become a kind of shorthand for whether things are getting better or worse – a judgment made not through GDP figures or growth forecasts, but on the walk to the bus stop or the view from the top deck.” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...theguardian.comFriday briefing: How Britain’s high streets became a barometer of national declineIn today’s newsletter: As boarded‑up units spread from coastal towns to former industrial centres, a new Guardian investigation reveals how our high streets have become a litmus test for public fru... 100
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 17/01/2026Cracking quote from Malcolm Byrne in the piece below, coining the phrase that politicians now “campaign on TikTok and govern on LinkedIn”! www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...independent.ie‘The child abuse images are a step too far for humanity’ – the Irish politicians deleting their X accounts over ‘vile’ Grok appMaybe they should have all just listened to Willie O’Dea in the first place. Back in 2010 at the time of the open embrace of Twitter by many public figures, the Limerick TD cautioned that “politician... 000
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 12/02/2025www.politico.eu/article/ai-a...politico.euHow the world stopped worrying and learned to love AIPoliticians have shifted from AI regulation to innovation — and the industry loves it. 010
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 23/01/2025For anyone unfamiliar with new housing minister James Browne TD and what approach he may take, he wrote this piece for local Wexford newspapers at the beginning of the year which may offer some insight into his thinking on housing 👇🏼 www.independent.ie/regionals/we...independent.ieHousing is the greatest domestic challenge we face today – Fixing it requires action, not rhetoricThe most recent information shows that from 2020 up to the middle of 2024, 3,444 new homes had been completed in Wexford, a remarkable increase from the 1,797 in the previous four years. And in the fi... 010
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 23/01/2025No coincidence that Albert Dolan and Catherine Ardagh - both widely viewed as rising stars within FF - were chosen to nominate Mícheál Martin for Taoiseach. Looking back to 2016, Lisa Chambers and Thomas Byrne nominated Martin - both were appointed to the Fianna Fáil frontbench soon after. 100
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 22/01/2025The answer? Not long! Is the relationship between the Ceann Comhairle and the opposition irreparable? Difficult to see a route for the CC to gain the confidence of the Dáil after today’s open revolt. 020
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 24/12/2024www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2...rte.ie'Good people all': the Xmas carol from Enniscorthy (or Wexford)Whether you know it as the Wexford or Enniscorthy Carol, this beautiful composition has travelled the world 000
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 18/12/2024This is excellent from @estwebber.bsky.social. I've long been fascinated by the presence of MPs with no discernible link to the constituencies which elect them. However, this piece notes that amongst those ranks are some of the most impactful, consequential MPs! www.politico.eu/article/brit...politico.euBritain’s Winston Churchill shortageWestminster is becoming a local place for local people — and that means fewer star politicians. 100
Reposted by Conor RuthEd Hodgson @edhodgsoned.bsky.social · 12/12/2024Made this chart yesterday and can't stop thinking about it - how Brits plan to vote according to what they see as the top issues... 3126
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 12/12/2024Really important read. "Climate change is making geopolitics less stable, which harms climate action. This will worsen climate change, meaning more geopolitical instability, and so on." theconversation.com/a-doom-loop-...theconversation.comA ‘doom loop’ of climate change and geopolitical instability is beginningClimate change is driving inflation and instability, which harms climate action. But it’s not too late to escape the doom loop. 010
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 06/12/2024Lots of talk pre #GE24 about Fianna Fáil's relative electoral weakness in Dublin. I've looked at the numbers and compared the performance of the 3 largest parties' in Dublin to their respective national performances, using both share of the first preference vote and seat share as relevant metrics. 110
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 05/12/2024Now that both FF and FG have announced their teams for Programme for Government negotiations, it's interesting to look back at the respective teams for the previous two negotiations. What can we learn from the evolution of FF & FG government negotiation teams since 2016? #GE24 101
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Some really impressive results for the SocDems today - particularly considering their greatest asset (Holly Cairns) was sidelined for much of the #GE24 campaign! Similarly, the Labour Party have quietly put in the groundwork and rebuilt support in many traditional heartlands. 121
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Prof. Michael Gallagher of Trinity College Dublin providing an exhibition in electoral analysis on RTÉ Radio One. A true master of the art! 000
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 30/11/2024Quite happy with how these #GE24 projections have held up today. Revising some constituencies throughout the day, I think there’s a very real possibility that FF and FG will be able to reach/exceed the magic number of 88. 123
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 30/11/2024Count 1 from Meath West is in #GE24. Guirke and Tóibín safe, with an FF vs FG shootout for the final seat. Cllr Aisling Dempsey (FF) is Trim-based, and I expect her to stay ahead of FG Cllr. Linda Nelson Murray as both Cllr. Noel French (despite FG roots) and Cllr. Ronan Moore also represent Trim. 000
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 30/11/2024Michael MacNamara MEP makes a good point on RTÉ re: the centralisation of power within the Irish political system, and the relative weakness of local government here. #ge24 4122
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 30/11/2024www.rte.ie/news/electio...rte.ieRemember 'The Donnelly Rules' during election countVeteran political pollster Sean Donnelly has two election rules that are worth bearing in mind as the Election 2020 count unfolds. 000
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 29/11/2024Went through each constituency and arrived at the following seat range projections. FF: 43-49 FG: 34-40 SF: 34-40 Inds: 19-26 Labour: 4-12 SocDems: 3-7 Greens: 1-5 II: 3-7 SolPBP: 2-6 Aontú: 1-3 Instinct tells me I’m overestimating FF - as I did in 2020 - but we’ll see. 200
Reposted by Conor RuthPatrick Honohan @phonohan.bsky.social · 29/11/2024If it's economics that drives voting in general elections, the question for Ireland today is whether it's microeconomics or macro. (See the NYT piece by @fotoole). These graphs quantify the contrast between rocketing aggregate employment growth and below peak average real earnings. 3107
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 26/11/2024Listening to some discussion on fiscal policy throughout this election campaign, I decided to dig this book out and re-read it. Interesting counterfactual to consider what platform the PDs would put to the people in the current economic climate - and how that may differ from the existing parties. 100
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 21/11/2024Really enjoyed this authoritative account of the history of local elections in Ireland by @aodhquinlivan.bsky.social. Charting the development of the politics of local govt alongside many colourful stories from 125yrs of local elections, it offers a timely reminder that all politics is local! 010
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 21/11/2024A really valuable resource from @breakaway-ian.bsky.social for all the Ivan Yates / Barry Lenihan wannabes out there… Hours of fun - and some great insights into electoral geography as well! 000
Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 20/11/2024@electionlit.bsky.social see below a full page ad in the local newspaper today ahead of the election funded by a climate-conscious concerned grandmother! Not sure I’ve come across this in previous elections. 22511