iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Happy New Year to the League of Ireland!

Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Fascinating data. The Brexit figure is particularly intriguing - would love to explore the leave/remain breakdown amongst those who still identify it as a top 3 issue, as well as how they voted in 2024!

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

The Conservative and Reform figures on socialism are... interesting! YouGov's age breakdown is also worth reviewing

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Sinn Féin's growth has been quite consistent both nationally and within Dublin - no major volatility, overperformance or underperformance.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

The same exercise for Fine Gael illustrates its volatility in terms of seat share. 2011 is particularly interesting - FG in Dublin underperformed its national FPV but overperformed in terms of seat share. Since 2020 however, FG performance in Dublin accurately reflects its national performance.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Graph 1 charts the relationship between FF's first preference vote (%) nationally vs in Dublin, whilst graph 2 charts reviews the % share of seats. On both metrics, FF in Dublin underperform relative to their national performance. This was most apparent in 2016.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

Many polls - albeit with the necessary health warnings re: regional crosstabs, as outlined by @kevcunningham.bsky.social - have indicated FF's underperformance in Dublin relative to national figures. My exercise seeks to assess whether such underperformance is borne out by GE results.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Another one from 2016, prompting the following exchange!

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

Now that both FF and FG have announced their teams for Programme for Government negotiations, it's interesting to look back at the respective teams for the previous two negotiations. What can we learn from the evolution of FF & FG government negotiation teams since 2016? #GE24

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

Count 1 from Meath West is in #GE24. Guirke and Tóibín safe, with an FF vs FG shootout for the final seat. Cllr Aisling Dempsey (FF) is Trim-based, and I expect her to stay ahead of FG Cllr. Linda Nelson Murray as both Cllr. Noel French (despite FG roots) and Cllr. Ronan Moore also represent Trim.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Google is ready for #GE24! g.co/doodle/qhv4xbf

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Listening to some discussion on fiscal policy throughout this election campaign, I decided to dig this book out and re-read it. Interesting counterfactual to consider what platform the PDs would put to the people in the current economic climate - and how that may differ from the existing parties.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

A selection from the south-east!

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Really enjoyed this authoritative account of the history of local elections in Ireland by @aodhquinlivan.bsky.social. Charting the development of the politics of local govt alongside many colourful stories from 125yrs of local elections, it offers a timely reminder that all politics is local!

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

@electionlit.bsky.social see below a full page ad in the local newspaper today ahead of the election funded by a climate-conscious concerned grandmother! Not sure I’ve come across this in previous elections.

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Conor Ruth @conorruth.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

Was struck by this data from @redcceo.bsky.social last week - despite FG’s lead on law and order, FF clearly see this as fertile ground for an offensive. Tapping into that 22% unconvinced by all parties in this regard the target for both parties. Notable that SF haven’t involved themselves in this.

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