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Christopher Lucas

@christopher-lucas.bsky.social
585 followers 230 following 9 posts

Political scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. christopherlucas.org/

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Reposted by Christopher Lucas
Nature Human Behaviour @nathumbehav.nature.com · 01/09/2026
Improving computational reproducibility in the social sciences
dlvr.it
Improving computational reproducibility in the social sciences
Nature Human Behaviour, Published online: 01 September 2026; doi:10.1038/s41562-026-02570-wCode underlying published findings in the social sciences often fails to reproduce reported results when others re-run it on the original data. This Comment proposes four recommendations to strengthen computational reproducibility, facilitating the trustworthiness and reliability of research.
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Christopher Lucas @christopher-lucas.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Out today in Nature Human Behaviour, with a bunch of great people: recommendations for improving computational reproducibility in the social sciences. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Improving computational reproducibility in the social sciences - Nature Human Behaviour
Code underlying published findings in the social sciences often fails to reproduce reported results when others re-run it on the original data. This Comment proposes four recommendations to strengthen...
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Kenny Lowande @lowande.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Rice is recruiting 2(+) professors this Fall! Open rank, open field. Looking forward to meeting people who want to come do their best work in our growing Department, at a growing University. (I am not on the committee, but feel free to reach out with questions.) apply.interfolio.com/190537
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
🚨 Going up on eJobs later today: Harvard has an open-field tenure-track search this fall, with priority areas in American Politics, International Relations, Formal Theory, and Quantitative Methods. Feel free to reach out with any questions! academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/16668
academicpositions.harvard.edu
TENURE-TRACK PROFESSOR IN GOVERNMENT
The Department of Government seeks to appoint a tenure-track professor in Government. The appointment is expected to begin on July 1, 2027. The tenure-track professor will be responsible for teaching ...
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I wrote this because most journalists facing this pressure can’t. The paper we count on to check authoritarianism spiked an investigation into the Democratic Party because the party’s lawyers threatened to sue. Holding authoritarians accountable starts with holding your own side accountable.
data4democracy.substack.com
With Fear and Favor
Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.
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Reposted by Christopher Lucas
Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
“I was asked not to mention the Times at all. I’m choosing not to honor that norm, b/c silence abt how accountability journalism gets suppressed is itself a form of suppression.” Read the back story of how @nytimes.com and @thebulwark.com killed @adambonica.bsky.social’s piece. What a mf badass.
data4democracy.substack.com
With Fear and Favor
Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.
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Reposted by Christopher Lucas
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Our paper on the electoral benefits of Trump's ag payments is out now at the Journal of Public Economics. authors.elsevier.com/c/1nWEVAlwA2... tl;dr - We use the natural experiment from 2019's massive increase in spending to compare 2020 Trump vote in over-compensated vs. under-compensated counties.
The political benefits of the monoculture: Estimating the electoral effect of the market facilitation program

Does the distribution of government transfers affect elections? We analyze a natural experiment in the 2019 wave of the US Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program (MFP). The 2019 MFP allocated $14.5 billion via a formula combining historical production data and commodity-specific trade damages. We show how a methodological quirk resulted in arbitrary variation in these damages that propagated through the formula into excessive county-level compensation rates. We estimate the effects of this payment shock using a novel, design-based, randomization inference approach to account for complex dependencies across US counties. We find that counties receiving greater compensation rates, on average, have higher two-party Republican presidential vote shares in the 2020 election. Instrumenting for actual 2019 MFP disbursements, we find an additional $1 million in payments to a county increased that county’s 2020 two-party Trump vote share by about .18 percentage points on average. Had the 2019 MFP maintained the spending levels of the 2018 wave, we estimate that Candidate Trump’s two-party vote share would have been .117 percentage points lower nationally, with particularly pronounced effects in swing states like Arizona (.41 percentage points) and Georgia (.159 percentage points).
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Reposted by Christopher Lucas
Marcel Roman @mfroman.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
🚨NEW WORKING PAPER🚨 w/ @mjstrawbridge.bsky.social and @stephanieternullo.bsky.social. We help explain the puzzle of steadfast Black identification with the Democratic party by providing new theory and evidence on the role of racial residential segregation 1/n
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APSA Preprints @apsa-preprints.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
The APSA Pres Task Force on AI, Politics, & Political Science's report comes in the form of an edited volume identifying questions & establishing a foundation for the empirical study of how politics & governance are affected by AI. Check out these early chapter drafts: shorturl.at/cMZzI #polisky
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Christopher Lucas @christopher-lucas.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
WashU Source on our article in the latest issue of @ajpseditor.bsky.social, "Speaking their language?: Multilingualism in party communication across democracies" source.washu.edu/2026/05/stud... onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
source.washu.edu
Study reveals how, when political parties communicate with citizens in multiple languages
Analyzing 4 million Facebook posts made by 800 political parties from 87 countries around the world, WashU political scientists find candidates’ linguistic choices often mirror the parties’ choices.
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Christopher Lucas @christopher-lucas.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Chapter on AI and Research Methods!
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 30/04/2026
Arguably, no law in American history was a product of more public deliberation and more attention from the political branches than the Voting Rights Act. We fought a Civil War to put authorization of it in the Constitution. It then took 100 years of protest/lobbying to get the legislation passed.
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Ariel R. White @arielrwhite.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
It took a while to get the ad up, but we are hiring a pre-doc to start this summer: careers.peopleclick.com/careerscp/cl...
careers.peopleclick.com
Research Support Associate 2
MIT - Research Support Associate 2 - Cambridge MA 02139
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Lucia Motolinia @luciamotoliniac.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
My new book, "Unity Through Particularism: How Electoral Reforms Influence Parties and Legislative Behavior," is finally out with Cambridge University Press. A 20% discount is available on the Cambridge site using the code UYTPM25. www.cambridge.org/us/universit...
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Maya Sen @mayasen.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Trump is now demanding One Billion Dollars from Harvard, threatening criminal punishment, and insinuating Harvard’s president was chosen because of his religion (?)
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Rachel Porter @rachelporter.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Another great postdoc opportunity at Notre Dame! We’re seeking a scholar of American racial & ethnic politics to join our fantastic and growing postdoc cohort Major upside: the opportunity to interview with our poli sci dept for conversion to a tenure-track line apply.interfolio.com/179415
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Simon Weschle @simonweschle.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
We're hiring at UNC Political Science! Tenure Track Assistant Professor in Methods (Deadline Oct 24) unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/307... #polisky #psjobs #poliscijobs
unc.peopleadmin.com
Assistant Professor
This tenure-track position includes 40% teaching, 40% research and 20% service to the department/college. The service portion includes, but is not limited to search committees, review committees and a...
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Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
😒Do elections stir emotions? ➡Using Facebook data from 26 democracies, @dahjinkim.bsky.social T Muraoka, @christopher-lucas.bsky.social @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social & M Tavits find that ideological polarization intensifies emotional reactions www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
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David Ryan Miller @davidryanmiller.com · 23/06/2025
Watching @lastweektonight.com this morning (episode dedicated to AI slop 🫠) and had a "Wait, I know that guy!" moment! WTG @christopher-lucas.bsky.social poli sci represent!
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Sarah Gilbert @sarahagilbert.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
The mods of r/ChangeMyView shared the sub was the subject of a study to test the persuasiveness of LLMs & that they didn't consent. There’s a lot that went wrong, so here’s a 🧵 unpacking it, along with some ideas for how to do research with online communities ethically. tinyurl.com/59tpt988
tinyurl.com
From the changemyview community on Reddit
Explore this post and more from the changemyview community
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American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) @ajpseditor.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Speaking their language?: Multilingualism in party communication across democracies by Taishi Muraoka, Dahjin Kim, Christopher Lucas, Jacob Montgomery, and Margit Tavits is now available in Early View. @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social ajps.org/2025/04/23/s...
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Kaiping Chen @kaipingchen.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
✨Sharing our new publication in @polanalysis.bsky.social @cambridgeup.bsky.social "Constructing Vec-tionaries to Extract Message Features from Texts: A Case Study of Moral Content" #OpenAccess www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Zeynep Ceren Topac @zeynepcerent.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Wrapped up #MPSA2025! Presented exciting new work with my coauthor Dihan Shi - grateful for insightful feedback and engaging discussions. Already looking forward to next year!
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Reposted by Christopher Lucas
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 27/02/2025
Researchers intentionally sent study participants down algorithmic rabbit holes, serving them ever-more politically polarized videos on a YouTube-like platform, but found limited effects on attitudes from this short exposure. In PNAS: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Video platform interface and recommendations. The left panel shows the video-watching interface for an example video, and the right panel shows an example of recommendations that were presented to respondents after the video.
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Reposted by Christopher Lucas
cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Important new paper in PNAS by an all-star team. Experimental evidence that "the algorithms" may not be responsible for ideological social media bubbles. www.pnas.org/doi/epub/10...
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Christopher Lucas @christopher-lucas.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
With soubhikbarari.bsky.social and Kevin Munger, our article "Political Deepfakes Are as Credible as Other Fake Media and (Sometimes) Real Media" is available ahead of print at thejop.bsky.social. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
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Reposted by Christopher Lucas
Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Pentagon abruptly ends all funding for social science research: 91 studies on threats such as climate change, extremism, and disinformation are halted (with thoughts by me)
science.org
Pentagon abruptly ends all funding for social science research
More than 90 studies on threats such as climate change, extremism, and disinformation are halted
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apoorva lal @apoorvalal.com · 10/03/2025
New paper, of the "your toys are probably fine, just make sure they don't have any serrated edges" variety
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
Right now, DOGE is saying that any new hires have to be approved by their office. In 1980, when IL Governor Thompson said any new hires had to be approved by his office, the Supreme Court said it was unconstitutional politicization of hiring. What about now? www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
When the case reached the Supreme Court, the Court held that systems of political patronage like the one established by Thompson violate the First Amendment. Quoting one of its first patronage decisions, the Court reaffirmed that “conditioning public employment on the provision of support for the favored political party ‘unquestionably inhibits protected belief and association.’” Doing so “pressures employees to pledge political allegiance to a party with which they prefer not to associate, to work for the election of political candidates they do not support, and to contribute money to be used to further policies with which they do not agree.” It is “tantamount to coerced belief,” something the First Amendment plainly forbids. Nor did it matter that Thompson had not issued a direct order specifying that only Republicans would be hired, because “what the First Amendment precludes the government from commanding directly, it also precludes the government from accomplishing indirectly.”
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Imagine if -prosecutors who brought cases against Hunter Biden were purged -Soros employees took control of govt. payment and personnel systems -Executive order redefined 2nd Amendment by fiat -Every violent crime during a BLM protest was pardoned -People paid Biden millions for favorable treatment
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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Political Analysis has joined Bluesky! PA aims to provide original and significant advances in the general area of political methodology, including both quantitative and qualitative methodological approaches. Follow us here to stay updated on our newest issues and FirstView articles.
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