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cstewartiii.bsky.social

@cstewartiii.bsky.social
188 followers 114 following 138 posts
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
One delicious detail in this story about a power grab in the Brooklyn Democratic Party is that the lawyer representing the reformers is named Mark Hanna, which was the name of a 19th-century Republican Party boss. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/26/...
nytimes.com
Brooklyn Democrats Were About to Lose Power. So They Changed the Rules.
The Brooklyn Democratic Party is in the middle of a fight over who will control the organization that has shocked even seasoned political observers.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I've just posted some evidence about the partisan divide in the use of mail/absentee ballots. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/some-evid...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I've just posted some thoughts on last week's Census Bureau report about noncitizen voting. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/census-bu...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The administration has announced it will send 1,000 monitors across the country for the 2026 election. For context, there are about 100,000 voting precincts in the U.S.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
El-Sayed generally under-performed Bernie Sander's 2016 pres'l primary results in Michigan counties, except in the larger counties in the southern part of the state, esp. counties with lots of students.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Here's the current county scatterplot of El-Sayed vs. Bernie Sanders in 2016. (Sanders got 50% of the primary vote). This is likely to be closer than the polls have indicated.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Is no one noticing that El-Sayed is under-performing Sander 2016 in the counties that have reported almost all their votes?
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
I have just posted the introduction to a series in which I examine some of the data behind the gap between support for the general principles of the SAVE America Act and the practicalities of designing legislation to achieve those goals. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/how-the-s...
playingwithelectiondata.substack.com
How the SAVE America Act Leaves Policy Wins on the Table
Introduction to a series
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Another reminder: the House is not a continuing body electionlawblog.org?p=157565
electionlawblog.org
Another reminder: the House is not a continuing body  #ELB
David French is one of my favorite opinion columnists. I often agree with his analysis and judgments, and when I don’t, I invariably find them thoughtful.  That’s why it’s distressing this morning to ...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I know it's late Friday afternoon, but I've posted some thoughts about the president's speech on Substack: playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/that-was-...
playingwithelectiondata.substack.com
That Was Something
A Quick, Election-Data Take on President Trump’s Speech
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
For the data nerds out there, Stephen Richer has compiled a really nice catalog of all the large-scale election official investigations into non-citizen voter registration he could find. It's a great resource. declarenews.org/map-investi...
declarenews.org
Map - Investigative Data - Declare
Non-citizen Voter Roll Investigation The following is a compilation of proactive investigations since January 1, 2021 by election officials into the presence of noncitizens on voter rolls.  Alabama On August 15, 2025, Secretary of State Wes Allen identified 3,251 possible noncitizens who had registered in Alabama. In January 2026, Secretary of State Wes Allen announced […]
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Word is spreading that the White House has relieved all three remaining EAC commissioners as of 4pm today.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Recommended reading. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.u...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
The Senate voted yesterday, 48-50, not to attach the SAVE America Act to the reconciliation act. Collins, McConnell, Murkowski, & Tillis were the R's who voted nay. Ernst (R) and Bennet (D) didn't vote. Otherwise, it was a strict party-line vote.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
On net, Cornyn lost early votes 1:1 to Paxton at the precinct level, whereas Cornyn did better on net in mail voting. Too bad for Cornyn that almost no one votes by mail in TX.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
For the curious: The filing deadline for SC state House of Representatives was March 30. Early voting in the primary begins today. The primary is June 9. From what I can tell, of 89 R's in the House, 84 are running for reelection w/ 24 facing primary opposition. That is all.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Christian Fong at the University of Michigan has published this interesting article on voter fraud, voter ID, and election trust in American Politics Research. doi.org/10.1177/153...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
FWIW, the strongest correlation, at the precinct level, among statewide vote shares in GA is between Raffensperger (GOV) and Cooley (Sen.). This seems to indicate that the Kemp/Reagan wing of the GA Republican Party has a strong core but not a majority.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Here's a quick post about tonight's GA primary, with a look back to LA's primary, to boot. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/will-geor...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Following up on yesterday's Substack post about primary turnout trends in 2026 vs. 2022, (playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/yet-anoth...), here's two graphs that update turnout in Georgia's advance voting for next Tuesday's primary.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
I just published a piece on Substack about what we're seeing in primary elections this season, and what that portends for November. Check it out. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/yet-anoth...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Graph of the day: Number of members of the House not running for reelection. Data from the amazing @mollyereynolds and the AP for 2026. 2026 stat as of today.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
I've just posted on Substack about the administrative complexities of actually trying to implement the latest election administration executive order. playingwithelectiondata.substack.com/p/president...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
The State Certification Testing of Election Systems National Conference is a great annual meeting. It will be held in Sacramento this summer. Check it out. Consider attending and submitting a proposal to speak. (Paper deadline approaching.) bsu-wpe-sites.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Kevin Kosar posted about the president's latest election executive order so I didn't have to. @kevinkosar kevinrkosar.substack.com/p/several-t...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
@BPC has just released a timely and important report on who among American voters possesses citizenship-proving documents. I'm delighted they found the Survey of the Performance of American Elections (produced by @mitelectionlab) useful. bipartisanpolicy.org/article/do-...
bipartisanpolicy.org
Do Documentary Proof of Citizenship Requirements Disadvantage One Party More Than the Other? • Bipartisan Policy Center
Analysis of the SAVE America Act and documentary proof of citizenship requirements shows that about 12% of registered voters lack common qualifying documents, with disparities across party affiliation, income, education, and race. These findings highlight potential impacts on voter access under proposed legislation.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Pocket veto, anyone?
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Here's an important new article about how academics and election officials can work together to find ways to build trust in elections. www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsand... Title: How Research–Practice Partnerships Can Strengthen Experiments Designed to Build Trust in American Elections
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Bookmark this: the University of Wisconsin Law School voter list litigation tracker: statedemocracy.law.wisc.edu/tracker-doj...
statedemocracy.law.wisc.edu
Tracker: DOJ Lawsuits Seeking States’ Sensitive Voter Data
Last Updated: February 25, 2026 As part of President Trump’s efforts to expand federal control over the country’s historically state-run election infrastructure, the U.S. Department of Justice has demanded copies of states’ complete voter registration lists, including voters’ highly sensitive data like birthdates, partial Social Security numbers, and driver’s license numbers.   The Justice Department claims it needs…
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
I re-ran the classic Tufte model predicting midterm congl election results using updated data. The model doesn't work as well as it once did & dRDI no longer influences seat loss. Confining the analysis to the most recent elections, it gives a prediction of a seat loss of ~ 38.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
The call for participation in the 2026 Election Science, Reform, and Administration conference has just dropped. Submit your proposals for papers, roundtables, posters, and all the rest: esra-conference.org/2026-call-p...
esra-conference.org
2026 Call for Proposals
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Congress geek alert, recommittal department: The four Democrats who voted to pass the SAVE Act also voted to recommit the bill to the committee. The recommittal vote failed 211-215 on a strict party-line vote.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Just listened to the Bongino podcast, so you don't have to, where DJT advocates for R's to nationalize elections. Puzzled why this is news, except that it illustrates how Pres Trump is still obsessed with claims that soberminded people of both parties long ago debunked.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
This is a great video about very interesting research about voting technology. Definitely worth the look. www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbL...
youtube.com
Beyond the Hype: A Research Driven Look at Claims About New Voting Technology
Election Science Office Hours with Michael Specter & Delaney Gomen, Georgia TechProfessor Alvarez’s guest for this episode will be Michael Specter, Assistant...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
This essay by @kevinrkosar is consistent with many (but not all) of my thoughts about Congress these days. A traditional way of expressing this is something like, "show horses have taken over the farm, but there are still more work horses than you think." www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2026/01/100...
thepublicdiscourse.com
What’s Wrong with Congress?
Congress has some real problems. But it is not a hopeless case. We can improve it and revive representative government.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Gig alert. The MIT Election Data and Science Lab is searching for a new Research Support Associate to support research in the lab. The ideal candidate is just graduating & wanting to see what a research environment is like before going on to graduate school. careers.peopleclick.com/careerscp/c...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
So, it looks like the federal court of the Western District of Washington has struck down almost all of the president's executive order related to elections: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.u...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Mark your calendars: The 2026 Election Science, Reform, and Administration Conference will be held in Phoenix the first week of June. At least bookmark the conference website. More information about submitting proposals and registering will be forthcoming. esra-conference.org/2026-confer...
esra-conference.org
2026 Conference
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
New article on whether donors punish extreme nominees. They do, although the effect has declined over time. doi.org/10.1017/S00...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Here's an interesting paper looking at the incumbency advantage in RCV elections: it seems to exist, although whether it's bigger or smaller than non-RCV elections is unknown. scholar.google.com/scholar_url...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Here's an interesting academic article on lessons learned from Hurricane Helene's effects on election administration in NC. doi.org/10.1177/152...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
I encourage people to take a look at this paper by Josh Clinton and TzuFeng Huang the accuracy and efficiency of prediction markets. ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socar...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Here is an excellent paper laying out the AI landscape for election administration. It's useful for people outside the election administration field, too. Thanks to Lia Merivaki and Ioannis Ziogas. www.merivaki.com/uploads/6/4...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
I served on a fed grand jury 25 years ago. I learned AUSAs informally discuss the +/- of cases with the juries. I'm assuming that the AUSA who presented the failed James indictment to the Norfolk grand jury had an after-action discussion with them to inform the DOJ's next moves. Could be wrong.
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
I'll be speaking at this event at @AEI tomorrow about the legacy of Bush v. Gore, 25 years lateer. There is a livestream option. Check it out. www.aei.org/events/bush...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Something reminded me of this New Yorker cartoon (published 6/15/81).
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Gig alert. The MIT Election Data and Science Lab (electionlab.mit.edu) has an opening for a program/project administrator. Check it out and pass it around! careers.peopleclick.com/careerscp/c...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Gig alert. The MIT Election Data and Science Lab (electionlab.mit.edu) has an opening for a communications associate. Check it out and pass it around! careers.peopleclick.com/careerscp/c...
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
So, here's an interesting paper (if, perhaps, unsurprising). X posts are hostile to women politicians, Instagram, less so. www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10....
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cstewartiii.bsky.social @cstewartiii.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Here's an interesting paper on election security I've taken a quick look at. I'd be interested in hearing from others who have read the paper. If nothing else, the bibliography alerted me to several articles on the technical side I was unaware of. static1.squarespace.com/static/5a6b...
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