Sign in

Christian Spence

@christianspence.co.uk
710 followers 480 following 211 posts

Economics · Data Science · Public Policy Founder & Chief Economist @economic-analytics.co.uk Economic Data Lead @open-innovations.org Chief Economist & Fellow @insplacemanagement.bsky.social #EconSky #Rstats #Rshiny

PostsRepliesMedia
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/09/2026
One of my evergreen posts. As David Hume might have said, "Empires may rise and fall; liberty and slavery succeed alternately; ignorance and knowledge give place to each other; but profit per partner will still remain, and will never be affected by the revolutions of human society."
ft.com
Deloitte partner pay rises to record £1.1mn as firm cuts staff
Profits in UK business jump even as accounting and consulting sector confronts AI disruption
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 20/05/2026
This stuff makes me worry that the problems in this government go *way* beyond Starmer. In a well-functioning system, with civil service, SPADs, etc., doing a good job, these ideas shouldn't even appear on the long list of things to be presented to top leadership as options. The rot is much deeper.
112
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/05/2026
Whilst this is true, I think there's a more detailed picture of this that's worth considering, and the last six years has resulted in a change we've not seen before, and it's not about online vs face-to-face. 1/
100
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/05/2026
A room filled for 3 days with political advisors, PR & comms people and speechwriters genuinely thought that speech was what was needed to turn the corner. Whilst I don't think that Starmer has been one of the finest PMs the UK has ever seen, the problems go much, much deeper than just him.
010
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 07/05/2026
The news feed is presenting a certain tension in exactly how the current chaos is playing out differently, even in similar sectors. 1. Maersk warns economic impact of Iran conflict will ripple for months 2. Emirates soars to record profit despite Iran war grounding planes
Two Financial Times stories published to BlueSky at the same time:

1. Maersk warns economic impact of Iran conflict will ripple for months
2. Emirates soars to record profit despite Iran war grounding planes
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/05/2026
I know things like this come from a "good place", but the current labour market is already sending strong signals about this. Big danger of a London-centric brain not knowing regional salaries Quick and dirty analysis: £15ph would be 80-85%+ of median wage in majority of local areas.
030
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/05/2026
This is a great and fascinating piece, but whichever sub-editor coined "cozzie livs" should be made to walk over hot coals.
010
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/04/2026
I think that, if the Strait remains closed into June, that this is right. If it the closure goes beyond that, then all bets are off. But everything is so hard to price. Brent has had a $12 spread since market opening this morning.
020
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/04/2026
On the basis of a number of comments that Huw Pill, the Bank of England's chief economist, has made over the past few weeks, there's no surprise that he voted for an increase in Bank Rate to 4%. For now, Bank Rate is held at 3.75%, but the dissents are only likely to increase from here.
bankofengland.co.uk
Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - April 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for making decisions about Bank Rate.
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/04/2026
All good things must come to an end, but I (and many others) have had an absolute ball working for @open-innovations.org over the years, and have learnt so much. Their mantra of #RadicallyOpen and #KillAllReports will live on in my own work.
030
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/04/2026
Erm, excuse me, what now? A continuous mathematical primitive? arxiv.org/html/2603.21...
arXiv:2603.21852v2 [cs.SC] 04 Apr 2026
All elementary functions from a single operator
Andrzej Odrzywołek
Institute of Theoretical Physics, Jagiellonian University, 30-348 Krakow, Poland
E-mail: andrzej.odrzywolek@uj.edu.pl
Abstract
A single two-input gate suffices for all of Boolean logic in digital hardware. No comparable primitive has been known for continuous mathematics: computing elementary functions such as 
sin, cos, square root, and log has always required multiple distinct operations. Here we show that a single binary operator, eml(x,y) = 
exp(x) − ln(y), together with the constant 1, generates the standard repertoire of a scientific calculator. This includes constants such as 
e, π, and i; arithmetic operations including +, −, ×, /, and exponentiation as well as the usual transcendental and algebraic functions. For example, e^x = eml(x,1), ln x = eml(1,eml⁡(eml⁡(1,x),1)), and likewise for all other operations. That such an operator exists was not anticipated; I found it by systematic exhaustive search and established constructively that it suffices for the concrete scientific-calculator basis. In EML (Exp-Minus-Log) form, every such expression becomes a binary tree of identical nodes, yielding a grammar as simple as 
S → 1 ∣ eml(S,S). This uniform structure also enables gradient-based symbolic regression: using EML trees as trainable circuits with standard optimizers (Adam), I demonstrate the feasibility of exact recovery of closed-form elementary functions from numerical data at shallow tree depths up to 4. The same architecture can fit arbitrary data, but when the generating law is elementary, it may recover the exact formula.
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 13/04/2026
First day at the desk in the new financial year and gently easing myself back into things. There's lots planned at @economic-analytics.co.uk over the coming months after an extended absence for a number of personal reasons. There's no shortage of economic issues: more on those in due course.
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 05/12/2025
The world-beating, never to be surpassed, visual definition of fragile masculinity.
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/11/2025
News: "Trump applies tariffs to US imports." Economists: "That's really daft." UK Govt: "Sure is. That's why we're going to tax our exports instead." Economists: "..."
020
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/11/2025
Aah, Budget week.
media.tenor.com
a green frog is standing in front of a red curtain with the words `` brace '' written above it .
ALT: a green frog is standing in front of a red curtain with the words `` brace '' written above it .
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 21/11/2025
Super interesting (and technical!) blog on bond markets and budget reaction. One thing not mentioned is US markets will be shutting down on Budget Day ready for Thanksgiving. With a desire to manage closing positions and much less liquidity in global markets the day after, movements could be large.
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/11/2025
This is a good piece. One thing particularly leapt out for me: "Assumes a sharp distinction with delivery: policy is mainly central, elite; delivery is mainly local, frontline — admirable but lower." The huge disconnect between ideas and delivery is a big problem. "Logistics trumps strategy" etc.
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
👀
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
The behavioural incentives mount when marginal tax rates are 42% (40% IT, 2% NI); not too much of an issue when few were in scope. This far down the distribution, many people will hit this for some period of working life. Add in student UG loan and for many it's 51%. 40% of London FT workers caught.
010
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
The OBR hath given: +£10bn of headroom. Putting aside the fact the OBR may taketh away in a future year, the govt has already paid its political costs for tax rises. It will be judged in 2029 on whether the country is better. It is more likely to be better with cash. Why not just take the "win"?
011
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
Just catching up on this (excellent) podcast. It points out (amongst lots of things - go listen!) something which I really hadn't realised. The Budget is scheduled for the day before Thanksgiving. That means the bond markets are going to be seriously short on liquidity the day after.
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
"For too long, Britain has been held back by governments that, because they lack a relentless focus on long-term ends, are buffeted about by events." Kier Starmer, Labour Manifesto 2024
2257
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
Apologies to all my clients who I'm delivering post-Budget presentations to this year, but we're going to need a considerably longer slot.
media.tenor.com
Give Me More Time Wednesday Addams GIF
ALT: Give Me More Time Wednesday Addams GIF
010
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
Does the government have enough planning skill to both think this up and pull it off? Anyway, even if so, it only helps you *now*. The real problem still exists.
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
🤷‍♂️😬🤯
133
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 13/11/2025
One can't help but wonder if anyone in HMT has ever heard of the idea of tax morale. You might find it easier to raise more revenue if it's somewhat higher.
020
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/10/2025
Budget chatter reverberates everywhere ("will she, won't she, we don't know"), but this, reported by Sky News, is intriguing. 'Rachel Reeves is unlikely to hike these taxes because the Treasury says those earning £45,000 or less qualify as "working people".' Higher rate threshold to come down?
100
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 02/10/2025
Looking forward to this. One reason why I'm dubious about killing NI and switching it onto IT (both IFS and Mirrlees Review say we should) is that the UK has never had a proper debate about a contributory benefits system, particularly around the issue of tax morale.
010
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 02/10/2025
This week I have mostly been reading ... @theifs.bsky.social 1978 Meade Report: The Structure and Reform of Direct Taxation.
010
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/09/2025
As David Hume might have said, "Empires may rise and fall; liberty and slavery succeed alternately; ignorance and knowledge give place to each other; but profit per partner will still remain, and will never be affected by the revolutions of human society." www.ft.com/content/d3aa...
ft.com
Deloitte UK’s revenues fall for first time in 15 years but partners’ pay rises
Cost-cutting drive helps shield profits at Big Four firm
010
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 29/09/2025
Hadn't realised that Grimshaw had died, and now Farrell, too. Fascinating architectural practice. Plans for an FT obit?
110
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 26/09/2025
I feel that the argument for digital ID cards could be more easily won if government focused on how they can strengthen the citizen against the state. As someone who's in the process of moving house, having to do five separate ID checks (and being charged for some of them) has been a real pain.
120
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 25/09/2025
Today I will mostly be wrestling with the OECD API. Thoughts and prayers appreciated.
120
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 18/09/2025
@alphaville.ft.com is always worth reading for many, many reasons, but the occasional sarcastic digs are always up there. Not content with aiming at the Bank of England's communications on QT (answer in two minutes), today the target is French diacriticals: Sóćíéťé Géńéřáľë
Sóćíéťé Géńéřáľë
010
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 15/09/2025
Monthly GDP statistics: too volatile, and draw too much focus onto short monthly changes. The @financialtimes.com had a piece last week ("Abolish monthly UK GDP") and the ONS may have just complied, but not by abolishing it (that would be daft) ... 🧵(1/7)
ft.com
Abolish monthly UK GDP
Provocative headlines are more likely to generate clicks
110
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/09/2025
Is there any other senior politician who has been sacked three times in their career?
ft.com
Peter Mandelson sacked as UK ambassador to the US over Epstein links
Veteran politician dismissed after days of criticism and email leaks
020
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 04/09/2025
Something else I've been looking into over the past few months (still need to finish the model for what Sched A would look like today), but this debate from 1960 on Sched A relief is enlightening: api.parliament.uk/historic-han...
api.parliament.uk
New Clause.—(RELIEF FROM SCHEDULE A FOR OWNER-OCCUPIERS.) (Hansard, 21 June 1960)
New Clause.—(RELIEF FROM SCHEDULE A FOR OWNER-OCCUPIERS.) (Hansard, 21 June 1960)
241
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 04/09/2025
Great thread and article linked here from @jpspencer.bsky.social. There's also a pre-/post-Covid story here with the North generally, and driven by the city regions, which shows their growth has outperformed the UK since the pandemic. Working on more research on this over coming months.
041
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/09/2025
Leaving aside the fact that a 14-month-old government is having yet another "reboot" (how many is this now?), this is an important point. A common sign of failure (business as well as politics) is the inability to coherently separate and manage the operational from the strategic.
1102
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/09/2025
Bonne rentrée! After the August break (and a somewhat enforced break for personal reasons in June and July), it's good to be fully back at the desk for the big push through to Christmas. 1/2
120
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 20/05/2025
Well, this is an interesting development in the area of de minimis customs exemptions. The US, EU and UK have been thinking about removing these entirely, so one to watch. on.ft.com/43oMhIC
on.ft.com
EU to impose €2 tax on low-cost items in blow to Temu and Shein
Brussels plans handling fee on billions of small packages imported mainly from China
020
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 12/05/2025
Interesting new publication today from @niesrorg.bsky.social on seasonally-adjusted inflation series. #EconSky
niesr.ac.uk
Seasonal Adjustment of CPI and CPIH - NIESR
A paper that outlines the methods used to seasonally-adjust inflation (CPI and CPIH) figures. It seeks to establish a method that could be used by the ONS.
030
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 08/05/2025
Do you routinely work in the late-night economy? If so, come to a meeting at 9am ... 🤦‍♂️
020
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 08/05/2025
You're reborn as a cartoon character. Who are you?
media.tenor.com
a cartoon character wearing a top hat is holding a book
Alt: GIF of Moominpappa wearing a top hat and reading a book
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 08/05/2025
Good news from the Office for National Statistics this morning: SIC2026 is coming! Screenshot from the morning email, latest update on their website is here: consultations.ons.gov.uk/external-aff...
UK Standard Industrial Classification
We have published an update on the future of the UK Standard Industrial Classification (UK SIC). The consultation gathered opinion on the future of the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC), following the UK’s exit from the EU on 31 December 2020.   

Following the consultation, which took place between 31 October 2023 and 23 January 2024, the National Statistician’s Committee for Advice on Standards for Economic Statistics (NSCASE) has recommended that the UK maintain alignment with international frameworks (ISIC and NACE), while introducing flexibility at the four- and five-digit levels. This approach will ensure the revised classification better reflects the structure of the UK economy. 

We are now entering the revision phase to develop a new framework, called UK SIC2026, with completion targeted for March 2026. We’ve established governance arrangements to oversee the development of UK SIC2026, including a Steering Board with experts from across government. Government Statistical Service coordinators will work closely with businesses and other users to develop and submit proposals for the revised framework. Please read our update for further details of how to get involved.
022
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/04/2025
👀🙏🍾
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 10/04/2025
This is one of those things that has puzzled me for years. Does anyone know why the UK chose to levy the thing it wanted more of, and not to levy the thing it wanted less of? Obviously politics will be a (large) part of it, but from the economic point of view this was always mad.
000
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 10/04/2025
The National Rail Conditions of Carriage have always imposed a limit on the number and size of pieces of luggage that you're allowed to take on a train. It is (like many UK laws) simply not enforced. (See also that playing music out loud is also prohibited.)
nationalrail.co.uk
Train Travel with Luggage | National Rail
You’re welcome to bring up to 3 items of luggage on the train, at no extra cost. Here’s everything you need to know about luggage on trains.
100
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 09/04/2025
And you geographers complain when boundaries move every few years.
010
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 09/04/2025
We go live to the West Wing for the current tariff policy decision-making meeting.
020