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Christian Spence

@christianspence.co.uk
712 followers 480 following 211 posts

Economics · Data Science · Public Policy Founder & Chief Economist @economic-analytics.co.uk Economic Data Lead @open-innovations.org Chief Economist & Fellow @insplacemanagement.bsky.social #EconSky #Rstats #Rshiny

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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/09/2026
One of my evergreen posts. As David Hume might have said, "Empires may rise and fall; liberty and slavery succeed alternately; ignorance and knowledge give place to each other; but profit per partner will still remain, and will never be affected by the revolutions of human society."
ft.com
Deloitte partner pay rises to record £1.1mn as firm cuts staff
Profits in UK business jump even as accounting and consulting sector confronts AI disruption
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 20/05/2026
This stuff makes me worry that the problems in this government go *way* beyond Starmer. In a well-functioning system, with civil service, SPADs, etc., doing a good job, these ideas shouldn't even appear on the long list of things to be presented to top leadership as options. The rot is much deeper.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/05/2026
Not quite the Chonk, but I've no idea what's going on here ...
A photograph of the main entrance to Liverpool Central station, with a very wonky Double Arrow symbol.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/05/2026
Voila, mon petit: blog.ons.gov.uk/2026/05/14/h...
blog.ons.gov.uk
How we adjust GDP to remove seasonal effects
There has been recent interest in seasonal patterns in the UK economy and how they are evolving. James Benford writes about the work taking place at the ONS to ensure they continue to be accurately ac
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/05/2026
I think this is a genuine risk. Somewhat supported in the latest ONS GDP release and the commentary on seasonal effects. "... partial data we have on spending on April ... point to some weakening going into the second quarter. Indicators of consumer demand suggested some easing during the month."
We also published in our monthly GDP release today a review of the partial data we have on spending on April which, on balance, point to some weakening going into the second quarter.  Indicators of consumer demand suggested some easing during the month.  That is consistent with anecdotal evidence from firms that reported to us a weakening in some areas of consumer spending in March, following the conflict in Iran, that was at least in part offset by stronger spending in other areas due to stockpiling in anticipation of higher prices.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/05/2026
A random thought of mine is that as people have bought more SUVs over the years, average fuel tank size has grown, so many folks will now have seen a full tank (especially diesel) push through the psychological £100 level.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 12/05/2026
They're so lucky to have avoided all of that. Such winning. Much popularity.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 12/05/2026
Another issue with an employee NI to CGT swap is that you sacrifice revenue from a very predictable, stable source and swap it for a much more volatile one. Even if you can raise that volume of revenue, I don't see how the switch makes any sense, and certainly not after 4pp of NI cuts.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 12/05/2026
Absolutely. a world in which the personal allowance wasn't over-indexed from 2011 (though that's currently being unwound), where NI LEL wasn't raised to match it, and where Hunt's NI cuts weren't delivered would have the UK fiscal position in a very different place.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 12/05/2026
Well, quite. (And your post would be an excellent political economy essay question if you added "Discuss." to the end of it.)
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 12/05/2026
I'm in favour of substantial CGT reforms, and the ones they list are generally the right things to do, but I don't see how you get a near-doubling of CGT revenue from these, and certainly not over the short term. And if you can access that kind of revenue, then using it to cut NI seems pointless.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 12/05/2026
Add to that that one of the groups for the new Labour leadership is proposing another employee NI cut of 2p (paid for by CGT reforms (🤣)) and you realise they're just not serious.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 12/05/2026
Not enough attention was paid to when Starmer immediately agreed to maintain the employee NI cuts when Hunt announced them in his response to the CX statement. A very large share of the govt's fiscal issues are downstream of that and the dreadful decision to fill some of the gap with employer NI.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/05/2026
Actually, I want to slightly caveat the last post above. Services spending remains weaker than pre-pandemic (arts, entertainment & recreation; hotels & restaurants) but growth has at least reappeared in the last year or two in a way that it hasn't for retail sales.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/05/2026
I think this has been the final pressure point over the last few years. If you want to grow the amount of spending on your high street, you're only realistically going to do it through services. The retail goods market is flat, at best. But services are still growing. Restock-retail is stuck. /ends
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/05/2026
But since the pandemic a new trend has emerged. In 2026, consumers only buy the same volume of retail goods that they did in 2019. So, whilst a greater share of spending is on services vs goods, and a greater share of goods is online, now the overall (goods) total is shrinking/stagnating. 4/
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/05/2026
This continued to hold throughout the growth of online retail. Even as online shopping has taken a larger share of retail goods shopping, the total amount purchased has increased throughout that period. The pain for high streets has been felt, but the effect blunted by that rising base. 3/
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/05/2026
It's a well-documented fact that as countries become richer, a greater share of consumer spending is directed to services than to goods. Over decades, whilst the share of spending on goods has fallen relative to services, the absolute volume of goods purchased continued to increase. 2/
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/05/2026
Whilst this is true, I think there's a more detailed picture of this that's worth considering, and the last six years has resulted in a change we've not seen before, and it's not about online vs face-to-face. 1/
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 11/05/2026
A room filled for 3 days with political advisors, PR & comms people and speechwriters genuinely thought that speech was what was needed to turn the corner. Whilst I don't think that Starmer has been one of the finest PMs the UK has ever seen, the problems go much, much deeper than just him.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 07/05/2026
The news feed is presenting a certain tension in exactly how the current chaos is playing out differently, even in similar sectors. 1. Maersk warns economic impact of Iran conflict will ripple for months 2. Emirates soars to record profit despite Iran war grounding planes
Two Financial Times stories published to BlueSky at the same time:

1. Maersk warns economic impact of Iran conflict will ripple for months
2. Emirates soars to record profit despite Iran war grounding planes
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/05/2026
Wonder if the brutal depreciation is part of that story. If a much greater share of the depreciation takes place earlier, then extending a PCP (essentially financing the depreciation) into an EV's older life is likely to be much, much cheaper than going back to new.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/05/2026
And the geographical implications of this are horrendous.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/05/2026
No nearside wing mirrors were incredibly common as well.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/05/2026
I know things like this come from a "good place", but the current labour market is already sending strong signals about this. Big danger of a London-centric brain not knowing regional salaries Quick and dirty analysis: £15ph would be 80-85%+ of median wage in majority of local areas.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/05/2026
This is a great and fascinating piece, but whichever sub-editor coined "cozzie livs" should be made to walk over hot coals.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/04/2026
I think that, if the Strait remains closed into June, that this is right. If it the closure goes beyond that, then all bets are off. But everything is so hard to price. Brent has had a $12 spread since market opening this morning.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/04/2026
On the basis of a number of comments that Huw Pill, the Bank of England's chief economist, has made over the past few weeks, there's no surprise that he voted for an increase in Bank Rate to 4%. For now, Bank Rate is held at 3.75%, but the dissents are only likely to increase from here.
bankofengland.co.uk
Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - April 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for making decisions about Bank Rate.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/04/2026
All good things must come to an end, but I (and many others) have had an absolute ball working for @open-innovations.org over the years, and have learnt so much. Their mantra of #RadicallyOpen and #KillAllReports will live on in my own work.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/04/2026
Erm, excuse me, what now? A continuous mathematical primitive? arxiv.org/html/2603.21...
arXiv:2603.21852v2 [cs.SC] 04 Apr 2026
All elementary functions from a single operator
Andrzej Odrzywołek
Institute of Theoretical Physics, Jagiellonian University, 30-348 Krakow, Poland
E-mail: andrzej.odrzywolek@uj.edu.pl
Abstract
A single two-input gate suffices for all of Boolean logic in digital hardware. No comparable primitive has been known for continuous mathematics: computing elementary functions such as 
sin, cos, square root, and log has always required multiple distinct operations. Here we show that a single binary operator, eml(x,y) = 
exp(x) − ln(y), together with the constant 1, generates the standard repertoire of a scientific calculator. This includes constants such as 
e, π, and i; arithmetic operations including +, −, ×, /, and exponentiation as well as the usual transcendental and algebraic functions. For example, e^x = eml(x,1), ln x = eml(1,eml⁡(eml⁡(1,x),1)), and likewise for all other operations. That such an operator exists was not anticipated; I found it by systematic exhaustive search and established constructively that it suffices for the concrete scientific-calculator basis. In EML (Exp-Minus-Log) form, every such expression becomes a binary tree of identical nodes, yielding a grammar as simple as 
S → 1 ∣ eml(S,S). This uniform structure also enables gradient-based symbolic regression: using EML trees as trainable circuits with standard optimizers (Adam), I demonstrate the feasibility of exact recovery of closed-form elementary functions from numerical data at shallow tree depths up to 4. The same architecture can fit arbitrary data, but when the generating law is elementary, it may recover the exact formula.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/04/2026
I think there's something in this. Added to a similar issue that (for very good reasons) economists ignore mortgage *principal* repayments in before/after housing costs statistics, it does still have a huge impact on household cash flow which is often not caught in any of the data discussion.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 13/04/2026
First day at the desk in the new financial year and gently easing myself back into things. There's lots planned at @economic-analytics.co.uk over the coming months after an extended absence for a number of personal reasons. There's no shortage of economic issues: more on those in due course.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 05/12/2025
The world-beating, never to be surpassed, visual definition of fragile masculinity.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 26/11/2025
Was thinking this earlier today. I'd managed to trace it back to the Lyons' Review in 2008, but it turns out the wheels move even more slowly than I thought.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/11/2025
News: "Trump applies tariffs to US imports." Economists: "That's really daft." UK Govt: "Sure is. That's why we're going to tax our exports instead." Economists: "..."
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/11/2025
Aah, Budget week.
media.tenor.com
a green frog is standing in front of a red curtain with the words `` brace '' written above it .
ALT: a green frog is standing in front of a red curtain with the words `` brace '' written above it .
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 21/11/2025
Super interesting (and technical!) blog on bond markets and budget reaction. One thing not mentioned is US markets will be shutting down on Budget Day ready for Thanksgiving. With a desire to manage closing positions and much less liquidity in global markets the day after, movements could be large.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/11/2025
This is a good piece. One thing particularly leapt out for me: "Assumes a sharp distinction with delivery: policy is mainly central, elite; delivery is mainly local, frontline — admirable but lower." The huge disconnect between ideas and delivery is a big problem. "Logistics trumps strategy" etc.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
👀
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
The behavioural incentives mount when marginal tax rates are 42% (40% IT, 2% NI); not too much of an issue when few were in scope. This far down the distribution, many people will hit this for some period of working life. Add in student UG loan and for many it's 51%. 40% of London FT workers caught.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
The OBR hath given: +£10bn of headroom. Putting aside the fact the OBR may taketh away in a future year, the govt has already paid its political costs for tax rises. It will be judged in 2029 on whether the country is better. It is more likely to be better with cash. Why not just take the "win"?
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
Just catching up on this (excellent) podcast. It points out (amongst lots of things - go listen!) something which I really hadn't realised. The Budget is scheduled for the day before Thanksgiving. That means the bond markets are going to be seriously short on liquidity the day after.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
Quite. I think something the UK should be really nervous about is that a government winning a general election with a majority (which in UK constitution basically gives you monarchical powers) has been unable to govern with competence not only in 2024, but also 2019 and 2015. This is a problem.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
"For too long, Britain has been held back by governments that, because they lack a relentless focus on long-term ends, are buffeted about by events." Kier Starmer, Labour Manifesto 2024
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
Apologies to all my clients who I'm delivering post-Budget presentations to this year, but we're going to need a considerably longer slot.
media.tenor.com
Give Me More Time Wednesday Addams GIF
ALT: Give Me More Time Wednesday Addams GIF
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
Exactly the reaction that you* would have expected. *Everyone except the Government bsky.app/profile/toma...
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
Does the government have enough planning skill to both think this up and pull it off? Anyway, even if so, it only helps you *now*. The real problem still exists.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
🤷‍♂️😬🤯
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 13/11/2025
One can't help but wonder if anyone in HMT has ever heard of the idea of tax morale. You might find it easier to raise more revenue if it's somewhat higher.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 13/11/2025
Well, we've not seen barbed wire barricades on the A580 for a while, so things can't be that bad 😂
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