Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/05/2026Not quite the Chonk, but I've no idea what's going on here ... 020 2
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/05/2026I think this is a genuine risk. Somewhat supported in the latest ONS GDP release and the commentary on seasonal effects. "... partial data we have on spending on April ... point to some weakening going into the second quarter. Indicators of consumer demand suggested some easing during the month." 150 5
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 07/05/2026The news feed is presenting a certain tension in exactly how the current chaos is playing out differently, even in similar sectors. 1. Maersk warns economic impact of Iran conflict will ripple for months 2. Emirates soars to record profit despite Iran war grounding planes 000 0
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/05/2026I know things like this come from a "good place", but the current labour market is already sending strong signals about this. Big danger of a London-centric brain not knowing regional salaries Quick and dirty analysis: £15ph would be 80-85%+ of median wage in majority of local areas. 030 3
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/04/2026I think that, if the Strait remains closed into June, that this is right. If it the closure goes beyond that, then all bets are off. But everything is so hard to price. Brent has had a $12 spread since market opening this morning. 020 2
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/04/2026Erm, excuse me, what now? A continuous mathematical primitive? arxiv.org/html/2603.21... 000 0
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/11/2025News: "Trump applies tariffs to US imports." Economists: "That's really daft." UK Govt: "Sure is. That's why we're going to tax our exports instead." Economists: "..." 020 2
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025"For too long, Britain has been held back by governments that, because they lack a relentless focus on long-term ends, are buffeted about by events." Kier Starmer, Labour Manifesto 2024 3267 26
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 02/10/2025This week I have mostly been reading ... @theifs.bsky.social 1978 Meade Report: The Structure and Reform of Direct Taxation. 010 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 18/09/2025@alphaville.ft.com is always worth reading for many, many reasons, but the occasional sarcastic digs are always up there. Not content with aiming at the Bank of England's communications on QT (answer in two minutes), today the target is French diacriticals: Sóćíéťé Géńéřáľë 010 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 15/09/2025Current trend from the latest 3-months on annual data? Growth is low, stable and slowing. That seems the key takeaway at the moment. Changing that is harder work, and hopefully we'll know more at the Budget on 26 November. (7/7) 010 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 15/09/2025My own preference has always been to use 3-months on the same 3-months of the previous year for annual comparison data, at least for the headline "what is growth doing", as it's easier to tell a long-term, transparent story before using the others to dive into detail. (4/7) 110 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 15/09/2025This makes a lot sense. The monthly GDP data is _extremely_ volatile, and too often causes strong media reaction to a number which will almost certainly be revised. Charts below show the difference between monthly growth and 3-monthly growth. Both are "right", but they tell different stories. (3/7) 110 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 04/09/2025Great thread and article linked here from @jpspencer.bsky.social. There's also a pre-/post-Covid story here with the North generally, and driven by the city regions, which shows their growth has outperformed the UK since the pandemic. Working on more research on this over coming months. 041 4
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 08/05/2025Do you routinely work in the late-night economy? If so, come to a meeting at 9am ... 🤦♂️ 020 2
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 08/05/2025Good news from the Office for National Statistics this morning: SIC2026 is coming! Screenshot from the morning email, latest update on their website is here: consultations.ons.gov.uk/external-aff... 022 2
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 09/04/2025We go live to the West Wing for the current tariff policy decision-making meeting. 020 2
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 09/04/2025So, China has retaliated. The EU has retaliated. The UK is likely not large enough to make a material difference, though the risk of dumping is one the UK will have to seriously consider. For now, playing the WOPR card is probably for the best. For now. 010 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 03/04/2025Now for a fun (for some definition of fun) couple of days in Oxford for @theifs.bsky.social residential conference. 220 2
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 18/03/2025In today's spam: nothing says "high-performing digital solution" (mobile banking app!) like an agency running itself from an aol.com email address. I'm being spammed from the 1990s. 000 0
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 13/03/2025Whilst going to Huddersfield can sometime feel like a trip to the 1980s, I didn't expect to see that I'd both time travelled and been annexed by Andy Burnham in the process. 230 3
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 07/03/2025Big vibes of the days of regional banking today. 110 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 05/03/2025Demonised? Far greater evidence for subsidy than demonisation. 030 3
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 04/03/2025If VIX is up, I presume that this cures tariff-related congestion? 010 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 04/03/2025Well, at least not *all* the markets are red ... 110 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 29/01/2025An (as usual) excellent blog from @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social on Labour and Growth. If finding what causes is growth is hard, discovering what holds it back is rather easier. mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/labo... 054 5
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/01/2025In our house, Friday night is film night, and the older the better. This evening: Petrified Forest (1936) with Bette Davis, Leslie Howard and a young Humphrey Bogart. But, from a contemporary perspective, this was fascinating. "Tipping is un-American". Plus ça change ... 010 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 23/01/2025Thanks to @dlknowles.bsky.social for pushing this into my feed. Fascinating indeed. Great quote below (much of Jacobs' work is), and first I've heard of Whyte's "The Social Life of Small Urban Spaces", so that's going on the shopping list. 121 2
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 08/01/2025I remember that at the time of the UK coalition government 2010-15, there was an attempt to overlay the two colours of the two parties to form a "coalition green". A random, half-finished Guardian article from then has more ... www.theguardian.com/politics/201... 100 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 07/01/2025There are already a number of contenders for the WTF award of early 2025, but this is a surprise I never saw coming. BBC Radio 4 Long Wave broadcasts are *still* used to carry the signal that triggers Economy 7 tariffs for electricity meters. 000 0
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 05/12/2024The really weird thing about this is that the number of vehicles continues to rise rapidly (data from table VEH0101 at www.gov.uk/government/s...). So we're managing to get more and more people to drive less and less distance each year. Complete failure of transport, planning and mobility policy. 230 3
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 28/11/2024Taken from this article: www.ons.gov.uk/economy/econ... 000 0
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 25/11/2024Well, I agree entirely: make sure we all find interesting content from other people. But there's some revealed preferences going on this post. 010 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 18/11/2024So, tonight it's going to be: ☃️snowy ❄️ cold 🍃 windy (with nippy windchill 🥶), and *checks notes* 🤷♂️>100% humidity. 010 1
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 16/09/2024An extract from @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social's recent piece (ft.com/content/be9c...) on the Transpennine rail upgrade being reviewed again. Treasury-brain is all-powerful and hugely damaging. 033 3
Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 02/09/2024Crikey! It's September and the first day back at the desk since July after a relaxing, recuperating August (mostly) away from the online world. It's a grey and damp day, but here's to getting back into the swing of things (and testing life here) with more enthusiasm than these local pigeons. 020 2