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Christian Spence

@christianspence.co.uk
714 followers 482 following 211 posts

Economics · Data Science · Public Policy Founder & Chief Economist @economic-analytics.co.uk Economic Data Lead @open-innovations.org Chief Economist & Fellow @insplacemanagement.bsky.social #EconSky #Rstats #Rshiny

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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/05/2026
Not quite the Chonk, but I've no idea what's going on here ...
A photograph of the main entrance to Liverpool Central station, with a very wonky Double Arrow symbol.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/05/2026
I think this is a genuine risk. Somewhat supported in the latest ONS GDP release and the commentary on seasonal effects. "... partial data we have on spending on April ... point to some weakening going into the second quarter. Indicators of consumer demand suggested some easing during the month."
We also published in our monthly GDP release today a review of the partial data we have on spending on April which, on balance, point to some weakening going into the second quarter.  Indicators of consumer demand suggested some easing during the month.  That is consistent with anecdotal evidence from firms that reported to us a weakening in some areas of consumer spending in March, following the conflict in Iran, that was at least in part offset by stronger spending in other areas due to stockpiling in anticipation of higher prices.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 07/05/2026
The news feed is presenting a certain tension in exactly how the current chaos is playing out differently, even in similar sectors. 1. Maersk warns economic impact of Iran conflict will ripple for months 2. Emirates soars to record profit despite Iran war grounding planes
Two Financial Times stories published to BlueSky at the same time:

1. Maersk warns economic impact of Iran conflict will ripple for months
2. Emirates soars to record profit despite Iran war grounding planes
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 01/05/2026
I know things like this come from a "good place", but the current labour market is already sending strong signals about this. Big danger of a London-centric brain not knowing regional salaries Quick and dirty analysis: £15ph would be 80-85%+ of median wage in majority of local areas.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 30/04/2026
I think that, if the Strait remains closed into June, that this is right. If it the closure goes beyond that, then all bets are off. But everything is so hard to price. Brent has had a $12 spread since market opening this morning.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/04/2026
Erm, excuse me, what now? A continuous mathematical primitive? arxiv.org/html/2603.21...
arXiv:2603.21852v2 [cs.SC] 04 Apr 2026
All elementary functions from a single operator
Andrzej Odrzywołek
Institute of Theoretical Physics, Jagiellonian University, 30-348 Krakow, Poland
E-mail: andrzej.odrzywolek@uj.edu.pl
Abstract
A single two-input gate suffices for all of Boolean logic in digital hardware. No comparable primitive has been known for continuous mathematics: computing elementary functions such as 
sin, cos, square root, and log has always required multiple distinct operations. Here we show that a single binary operator, eml(x,y) = 
exp(x) − ln(y), together with the constant 1, generates the standard repertoire of a scientific calculator. This includes constants such as 
e, π, and i; arithmetic operations including +, −, ×, /, and exponentiation as well as the usual transcendental and algebraic functions. For example, e^x = eml(x,1), ln x = eml(1,eml⁡(eml⁡(1,x),1)), and likewise for all other operations. That such an operator exists was not anticipated; I found it by systematic exhaustive search and established constructively that it suffices for the concrete scientific-calculator basis. In EML (Exp-Minus-Log) form, every such expression becomes a binary tree of identical nodes, yielding a grammar as simple as 
S → 1 ∣ eml(S,S). This uniform structure also enables gradient-based symbolic regression: using EML trees as trainable circuits with standard optimizers (Adam), I demonstrate the feasibility of exact recovery of closed-form elementary functions from numerical data at shallow tree depths up to 4. The same architecture can fit arbitrary data, but when the generating law is elementary, it may recover the exact formula.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/11/2025
News: "Trump applies tariffs to US imports." Economists: "That's really daft." UK Govt: "Sure is. That's why we're going to tax our exports instead." Economists: "..."
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
"For too long, Britain has been held back by governments that, because they lack a relentless focus on long-term ends, are buffeted about by events." Kier Starmer, Labour Manifesto 2024
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 14/11/2025
🤷‍♂️😬🤯
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 02/10/2025
This week I have mostly been reading ... @theifs.bsky.social 1978 Meade Report: The Structure and Reform of Direct Taxation.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 18/09/2025
@alphaville.ft.com is always worth reading for many, many reasons, but the occasional sarcastic digs are always up there. Not content with aiming at the Bank of England's communications on QT (answer in two minutes), today the target is French diacriticals: Sóćíéťé Géńéřáľë
Sóćíéťé Géńéřáľë
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 15/09/2025
Current trend from the latest 3-months on annual data? Growth is low, stable and slowing. That seems the key takeaway at the moment. Changing that is harder work, and hopefully we'll know more at the Budget on 26 November. (7/7)
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 15/09/2025
My own preference has always been to use 3-months on the same 3-months of the previous year for annual comparison data, at least for the headline "what is growth doing", as it's easier to tell a long-term, transparent story before using the others to dive into detail. (4/7)
Chart showing 3-months on previous year's same 3-months growth contributions
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 15/09/2025
This makes a lot sense. The monthly GDP data is _extremely_ volatile, and too often causes strong media reaction to a number which will almost certainly be revised. Charts below show the difference between monthly growth and 3-monthly growth. Both are "right", but they tell different stories. (3/7)
Chart showing monthly GDP growth contributionsChart showing 3-month on previous 3-month growth contributions
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 04/09/2025
Great thread and article linked here from @jpspencer.bsky.social. There's also a pre-/post-Covid story here with the North generally, and driven by the city regions, which shows their growth has outperformed the UK since the pandemic. Working on more research on this over coming months.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 08/05/2025
Do you routinely work in the late-night economy? If so, come to a meeting at 9am ... 🤦‍♂️
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 08/05/2025
Good news from the Office for National Statistics this morning: SIC2026 is coming! Screenshot from the morning email, latest update on their website is here: consultations.ons.gov.uk/external-aff...
UK Standard Industrial Classification
We have published an update on the future of the UK Standard Industrial Classification (UK SIC). The consultation gathered opinion on the future of the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC), following the UK’s exit from the EU on 31 December 2020.   

Following the consultation, which took place between 31 October 2023 and 23 January 2024, the National Statistician’s Committee for Advice on Standards for Economic Statistics (NSCASE) has recommended that the UK maintain alignment with international frameworks (ISIC and NACE), while introducing flexibility at the four- and five-digit levels. This approach will ensure the revised classification better reflects the structure of the UK economy. 

We are now entering the revision phase to develop a new framework, called UK SIC2026, with completion targeted for March 2026. We’ve established governance arrangements to oversee the development of UK SIC2026, including a Steering Board with experts from across government. Government Statistical Service coordinators will work closely with businesses and other users to develop and submit proposals for the revised framework. Please read our update for further details of how to get involved.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 09/04/2025
We go live to the West Wing for the current tariff policy decision-making meeting.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 09/04/2025
So, China has retaliated. The EU has retaliated. The UK is likely not large enough to make a material difference, though the risk of dumping is one the UK will have to seriously consider. For now, playing the WOPR card is probably for the best. For now.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 03/04/2025
Now for a fun (for some definition of fun) couple of days in Oxford for @theifs.bsky.social residential conference.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 18/03/2025
In today's spam: nothing says "high-performing digital solution" (mobile banking app!) like an agency running itself from an aol.com email address. I'm being spammed from the 1990s.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 13/03/2025
Whilst going to Huddersfield can sometime feel like a trip to the 1980s, I didn't expect to see that I'd both time travelled and been annexed by Andy Burnham in the process.
A picture of a coach in St George's Square, Huddersfield, in 1980s GM Buses livery.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 07/03/2025
Big vibes of the days of regional banking today.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 05/03/2025
Demonised? Far greater evidence for subsidy than demonisation.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 04/03/2025
If VIX is up, I presume that this cures tariff-related congestion?
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 04/03/2025
Well, at least not *all* the markets are red ...
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 29/01/2025
Screen grab of the title of a Tim Stanley article in the Telegraph, "Donald Trump will go down as the Roaring Twenties president"
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 29/01/2025
An (as usual) excellent blog from @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social on Labour and Growth. If finding what causes is growth is hard, discovering what holds it back is rather easier. mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/labo...
We can bring the yes and no answers together, and help answer what really matters for growth, by asking what the key lessons are from the growth disaster of the last fifteen years. Here it is not so much about what helps growth, but what holds it back. In understanding why UK growth declined so dramatically during this period, three episodes stand out: the financial crisis, subsequent austerity and Brexit. In all these cases the root cause of the problems were ideological or political.

It was an ideological view that deregulation was always desirable that allowed the financial crisis to happen. It was an ideological desire to shrink the state that led to growth-sapping austerity. It was political antagonism to the EU that led to Brexit.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/01/2025
In our house, Friday night is film night, and the older the better. This evening: Petrified Forest (1936) with Bette Davis, Leslie Howard and a young Humphrey Bogart. But, from a contemporary perspective, this was fascinating. "Tipping is un-American". Plus ça change ...
A still from the 1936 movie Petrified Forest, showing a barman in front of a sign that reads tipping is un-American - keep your change
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 24/01/2025
No.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 23/01/2025
Thanks to @dlknowles.bsky.social for pushing this into my feed. Fascinating indeed. Great quote below (much of Jacobs' work is), and first I've heard of Whyte's "The Social Life of Small Urban Spaces", so that's going on the shopping list.
Sixty years ago, Jacobs wrote that cities “differ from towns and suburbs in basic ways, and one of these is that cities are, by definition, full of strangers.” That human potpourri presents enormous opportunities to those who work or live in bustling places. But to capitalize on them, citygoers must pause and meet one another. Streets are places where such intercourse can, indeed must, take place.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 08/01/2025
I remember that at the time of the UK coalition government 2010-15, there was an attempt to overlay the two colours of the two parties to form a "coalition green". A random, half-finished Guardian article from then has more ... www.theguardian.com/politics/201...
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 07/01/2025
I beg your pardon? Does that say -10°C?!
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 07/01/2025
There are already a number of contenders for the WTF award of early 2025, but this is a surprise I never saw coming. BBC Radio 4 Long Wave broadcasts are *still* used to carry the signal that triggers Economy 7 tariffs for electricity meters.
Droitwich was one of the early regional radio stations built in the interwar period by the then newly-formed BBC (established in 1922). Its twin 700ft (213.4m) steel lattice masts are stayed by 21 wire cables, each of which is anchored to a concrete block weighing 400 tonnes. They were the tallest structures in the UK when built and are believed to be the only 200m+ pre-war examples to survive, making them the oldest telecommunication structures of their kind in Britain.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 05/12/2024
The really weird thing about this is that the number of vehicles continues to rise rapidly (data from table VEH0101 at www.gov.uk/government/s...). So we're managing to get more and more people to drive less and less distance each year. Complete failure of transport, planning and mobility policy.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 28/11/2024
Taken from this article: www.ons.gov.uk/economy/econ...
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 25/11/2024
Well, I agree entirely: make sure we all find interesting content from other people. But there's some revealed preferences going on this post.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 19/11/2024
😍
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 18/11/2024
So, tonight it's going to be: ☃️snowy ❄️ cold 🍃 windy (with nippy windchill 🥶), and *checks notes* 🤷‍♂️>100% humidity.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 16/09/2024
An extract from @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social's recent piece (ft.com/content/be9c...) on the Transpennine rail upgrade being reviewed again. Treasury-brain is all-powerful and hugely damaging.
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
	https://www.ft.com/content/be9cf2d2-7c41-4322-88f9-2ac1a21a3c06

One said the impetus was to slow down spending in order to hit short-term budgetary targets within the Treasury, even if that meant the project could cost more in the long run.
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Christian Spence @christianspence.co.uk · 02/09/2024
Crikey! It's September and the first day back at the desk since July after a relaxing, recuperating August (mostly) away from the online world. It's a grey and damp day, but here's to getting back into the swing of things (and testing life here) with more enthusiasm than these local pigeons.
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