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Martin Huber

@causalhuber.bsky.social
3.2K followers 306 following 131 posts

Professor of Applied Econometrics and Policy Evaluation at the University of Fribourg/Freiburg (Switzerland) - causal analysis, statistics, econometrics, machine learning...and telemarking

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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
📦 Very happy to announce a new release of our causalweight R package for causal inference combined with machine learning! New: continuous treatments, mediation with DiD, direct/indirect quantile effects, learning instruments & controls, effect homogeneity tests. cran.r-project.org/package=caus...
cran.r-project.org
causalweight: Estimation Methods for Causal Inference Based on Inverse Probability Weighting and Doubly Robust Estimation
Various estimators of causal effects based on inverse probability weighting, doubly robust estimation, and double machine learning. Specifically, the package includes methods for estimating average tr...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
📢 Registration is open for the Fribourg Winter School in Data Analytics & Machine Learning (1-12 Feb 2027). Learn predictive & causal analytics with Python, R & KNIME. New this year: a course on #AgenticAI. Hybrid format: join either on campus in Fribourg or online! www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/w...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
📚 Finally, the lecture slides for my book Impact Evaluation in Firms and Organizations, published by The MIT Press, are here! They can be downloaded from www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/r... Many thanks to Karin Lötscher, Sarina Oberhänsli, and Andreas Stoller for their great work in preparing the slides!
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Reposted by Martin Huber
GESIS Training @gesistraining.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
📣 New month, new chances! Discover our latest #GESISworkshops: 📊Causal Inference with Instrumental Variables and Regression Discontinuity Designs 📝 Grounded-Theory-Methodologie (in German) #causalinference #regression #GTM @gesis.org Find yours ➡️ gesis.org/workshops 🧵👇
NEW SKILLS Training
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
😀 I am pleased to share that our paper “Machine learning for detecting collusion and capacity withholding in wholesale electricity markets,” joint work with Ivan Marin and Jeremy Proz, has been published open access in Energy Economics: doi.org/10.1016/j.en...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
My lecture on Causal Machine Learning (discussing causal forests and double machine learning to control for confounders and assess treatment effect heterogeneity), delivered as part of the Luxembourg Institute of Health’s Lecture Series, is now online: 🔗 www.lih.lu/en/event/lec...
lih.lu
🇬🇧 Lecture series - Causal inference methods for real-world data 2025/2026 » Luxembourg Institute of Health
LECTURE SERIES – THEME 2025/2026: CAUSAL INFERENCE METHODS FOR REAL-WORLD DATA Causal inference methods for real-world data *For exact time and location, please refer to upcoming individual lecture po...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
🎉My book Impact Evaluation in Firms and Organizations turns one! mitpress.mit.edu/978026255292... It introduces impact evaluation/causal inference for business applications in a non-technical way. R/Python code and datasets freely available: www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/r... 📚Lecture slides coming soon!
mitpress.mit.edu
Impact Evaluation in Firms and Organizations
In today's dynamic business climate, organizations face the constant challenge of making informed decisions about their interventions, from marketing campaig...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
📖 Nearly 3 years after the publication of Causal Analysis (MIT Press), I'd like to highlight the lecture slides accompanying the book. Available here as PDF and editable TeX files, together with datasets & code in R, Python, & Stata: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm... @mitpress.bsky.social
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Had the pleasure of teaching a PhD course on Causal Inference at my alma mater, the Universität Innsbruck, this week. Thank you to all the participants for the engaging discussions-in the stunning heart of the Alps! 🏔️
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
🚀 Registration is open for the #Fribourg #WinterSchool in #DataAnalytics & #MachineLearning, Feb 1–12 2027. 📍at Fribourg University or online 🔍Topics: data analytics, predictive/causal machine learning, deep learning, agentic AI 💻 Software: Python, R, Knime 👉 Sign up: www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/w...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
🎉 Our paper, joint with Yu-Chin Hsu and Yu-Min Yen, is now published open access in JBES. We develop a double machine learning approach to estimate direct and indirect quantile treatment effects, with an application to the National Job Corps Study: doi.org/10.1080/0735... #CausalInference #DoubleML
doi.org
Estimation of Direct and Indirect Quantile Treatment Effects with Double Machine Learning
We propose a framework to disentangle the quantile treatment effect of a binary treatment at a specific rank into an indirect quantile treatment effect that operates through a mediator and an unmed...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
📖 News about my book #CausalAnalysis! Many empirical examples are now also available in #Stata - in addition to #R and #Python. You can find the data and code files at 🔗 www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/r... A big thank you to Sarina Oberhänsli for translating the code from R to Stata! 🙏
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Very happy to share our new working paper (with D. Imhof & T. Madiès) on cartel behavior, detection, and damages in public procurement: arxiv.org/abs/2606.30470 We show how firms coordinated bids in a Swiss bid-rigging cartel, while mimicking competition. Estimated average overcharges: at least 45%.
arxiv.org
Swimming in Dark Water: When Cartels Mimic Competition
This paper analyzes the internal organization and economic effects of a bid-rigging cartel in the road construction sector of the Swiss canton of Ticino, active from 1999 to 2005. Using exceptionally ...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
🔥New working paper out (with Hannes Wallimann & Cédric Brütsch): arxiv.org/abs/2606.24181 Using 21k+ bus inspections in Switzerland, we estimate the causal effect of inspector visibility. Result: uniformed inspections detect ~25% fewer fare evaders per hour than undercover inspections.
arxiv.org
Visible or Covert? The Causal Effect of Inspector Visibility on Fare Evasion Detection: A Causal Machine Learning and Policy Learning Approach
Fare evasion generates substantial revenue losses for public transport operators and is typically combated through fare inspections, yet little is known about how the mode of inspection-uniformed vers...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Delighted to be attending the Econometric Society African Meeting in Cairo (#AFES2026) as invited speaker. Will present joint work with M. Haddad, J. Medina-Reyes, L. Zhang on difference-in-differences for continuous treatments using machine learning: virtual.oxfordabstracts.com/event/76129/...
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Reposted by Martin Huber
Zeki Akyol @zekiakyol.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
✅ today: econometrics, treatment effects. 15 days to prelim #econsky #econtwitter book by @causalhuber.bsky.social
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🎉Our paper "Testing Monotonicity of Mean Potential Outcomes in a Continuous Treatment with High-Dimensional Data", joint work with Yu-Chin Hsu, Ying-Ying Lee, and Chu-An Liu, has been published in the Review of Economics and Statistics @restatjournal.bsky.social: direct.mit.edu/rest/article...
direct.mit.edu
Testing Monotonicity of Mean Potential Outcomes in a Continuous Treatment with High-Dimensional Data
Abstract. We propose a Cramér–von Mises–type test for testing whether the mean potential outcome given a specific treatment level has a weakly monotonic relationship with the continuous treatment unde...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
🆕 New working paper: When is exploiting treatment changes rather than treatment levels valid for causal inference? I develop a formal framework and characterize when strategies based on treatment changes and treatment levels (e.g., DiD) are - and are not - equivalent. arxiv.org/abs/2606.02234
arxiv.org
When Do Treatment Changes Identify Causal Effects?
This paper clarifies the identifying assumptions underlying causal inference based on treatment changes rather than treatment levels, and their relationship to conventional identification strategies. ...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
🚀 Excited to share that our paper “A Joint Test of Unconfoundedness and Common Trends”, joint work with Eva-Maria Oeß has now been published in the Journal of Applied Econometrics: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
A Joint Test of Unconfoundedness and Common Trends
We introduce an overidentification test of two alternative assumptions to identify the average treatment effect on the treated in a two-period panel data setting: unconfoundedness and common trends. ...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
🔥 Very happy to share our new working paper (with M. Bia, G. Menta, and C. D’Ambrosio) on estimating local average treatment effects using genetic instruments, while allowing for some instruments to be invalid and for heterogeneity in treatment responses across instruments: docs.iza.org/dp18595.pdf
docs.iza.org
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
I had the pleasure of visiting IMT in Lucca (www.imtlucca.it), where I presented our recent work on combining difference-in-differences for continuous treatments with double machine learning for control variable selection (joint with M Haddad, J Medina-Reyes, and L Zhang): arxiv.org/abs/2410.21105.
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
😀 Happy to share our new working paper with Andreas Stoller on cigarette prices, taxes, and smoking: doi.org/10.48550/arX... Using a flexible diff-in-diff approach with double machine learning and Eurobarometer data, we find that tax increases reduce smoking, particularly among the young.
doi.org
Effect of Cigarette Price and Tax Increases on Smoking in Europe: A Difference-in-Differences Study with Double Machine Learning
We estimate the effect of cigarette price and tax increases on smoking rates using Eurobarometer survey data from 27 European Union countries between 2012 and 2020. Following a difference-in-differenc...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
🚀 New working paper with Kevin Kloiber & @lukaslaffers.bsky.social: arxiv.org/abs/2603.04109 We propose a statistical test for full mediation of treatment effects and the identifiability of causal mechanisms, using double machine learning to control for high-dimensional covariates.
arxiv.org
Testing Full Mediation of Treatment Effects and the Identifiability of Causal Mechanisms
In causal analysis, understanding the causal mechanisms through which an intervention or treatment affects an outcome is often of central interest. We propose a test to evaluate (i) whether the causal...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
🚀 New working paper - joint with S. Oberhänsli: arxiv.org/abs/2602.23877 We propose a DiD approach to mediation analysis that evaluates direct, indirect, & dynamic treatment effects under conditional parallel trends, using double machine learning for flexible, data-driven covariate control.
arxiv.org
Difference-in-differences for mediation analysis using double machine learning
We propose a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework with mediation for possibly multivalued discrete or continuous treatments and mediators, aimed at identifying the direct effect of the treatment ...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
🔥New working paper (joint with A. Armendáriz): We propose a test for the homogeneity of conditional average treatment effects across experimental and observational studies, helping to disentangle unobserved confounding from effect heterogeneity in causal estimates: arxiv.org/abs/2602.19703
arxiv.org
Testing Effect Homogeneity and Confounding in High-Dimensional Experimental and Observational Studies
We propose a framework for testing the homogeneity of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) across multiple experimental and observational studies. Our approach leverages multiple randomized t...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
📣The 2026 Symposium of #CausalInference in the #HealthSciences takes place on March 18, 2026 in Fribourg. Theme: AI & machine learning in causal inference for health sciences 🎤Keynotes: Elsa Gautrain, Aurélien Sallin, Jonas Peters, Jana Mareckova 🔗https://projects.unifr.ch/pophealthlab/?page_id=1561
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
📢 Registration is open for the 2026 Symposium of Causal Inference in the Health Sciences, hosted at Fribourg University on March 18. This year’s focus is on AI/machine learning in causal inference for health sciences/economics - register here: projects.unifr.ch/pophealthlab... #CausalAI
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
📢 Last call! Register for the #Fribourg #WinterSchool in #DataAnalytics & #MachineLearning (📅 Feb 2–13, 2026) until Jan 25. Join us on site in Fribourg or online for data analytics, predictive/causal machine learning, and deep learning, using Python, R, Julia, & KNIME: www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/w...
unifr.ch
Further education | Chair of Applied Econometrics and Policy Evaluation | University of Fribourg
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
📢 Update of our #DiD paper on continuous treatments with machine learning-based covariate adjustment, joint with M Haddad, J Medina-Reyes, and L Zhang. Now includes an evaluation of the impact of second-dose COVID-19 vaccination rates on mortality in Brazil: arxiv.org/abs/2410.21105
arxiv.org
Difference-in-Differences with Time-varying Continuous Treatments using Double/Debiased Machine Learning
We propose a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework designed for time-varying continuous treatments across multiple periods. Specifically, we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (A...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
The new year starts with a great conference: the Labor Seminar in #Laax 🏔️ Inspiring talks with applications of causal inference methods in empirical labor economics and related fields. Thanks to Pia Schilling and Christina Felfe for putting together a fantastic program!
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
📄 New paper (joint with J Kueck & M Mattes): arxiv.org/abs/2601.05728 When outcomes depend on others’ actions in a social network, causal evaluation becomes difficult. We use causal AI to learn network interference from data and to test whether common ways of modelling interference are valid.
arxiv.org
Learning and Testing Exposure Mappings of Interference using Graph Convolutional Autoencoder
Interference or spillover effects arise when an individual's outcome (e.g., health) is influenced not only by their own treatment (e.g., vaccination) but also by the treatment of others, creating chal...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
📢The #Fribourg #WinterSchool in #DataAnalytics & #MachineLearning is coming up Feb 2-13. Join us on site at @ses_unifr or online for a two-week program on data analytics, predictive/causal machine learning & deep learning using Python, R, Julia & KNIME: www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/w...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
Happy holidays from the #Venet in #Tirol, #Austria ❄️⛷️ - the perfect crowd-free ski retreat, recharging energy for fresh #CausalAnalysis and #ImpactEvaluation in the new year 😉 www.venet.at
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
⏳ Our #Fribourg #WinterSchool in Data Analytics & Machine Learning is only a few weeks away (Feb 2–13, 2026). Strengthen your skills in predictive and causal machine learning, deep learning using Python, R, Julia & Knime. Register here to join us in person or online: www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/w...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Very honored to be recognized as a Distinguished Author of the Journal of Applied Econometrics in 2025 (for the equivalent of three single-authored publications). I’m very grateful to my coauthors - most of my work in this journal has been collaborative! 😊 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/page/journal...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Journal of Applied Econometrics DISTINGUISHED AUTHORS ANNOUNCEMENT
The Journal of Applied Econometrics is a statistical and mathematical economics journal for the application of econometric techniques to economic problems.
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
🚀 A new version of our causalweight package for the statistical software R is online, containing some of the latest causal machine learning methods for the estimation of treatment effects: www.rdocumentation.org/packages/cau... #CausalInference #CausalAnalysis #MachineLearning
rdocumentation.org
causalweight package - RDocumentation
Various estimators of causal effects based on inverse probability weighting, doubly robust estimation, and double machine learning. Specifically, the package includes methods for estimating average tr...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Had the great pleasure of teaching a short course on #CausalAnalysis (based on my book of the same name) and methods in policy evaluation this week at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. A big thank you to David Marques-Ibanez and all participants for hosting me and for the engaging discussions!
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Reposted by Martin Huber
Joël Machado @joelmachado.eu · 24/11/2025
‪ With @jeromevalette.bsky.social & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, we are happy to announce the CfPapers for the 4th edition of the Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration on May 26-27, 2026 @uc3meconomics.bsky.social, Spain. Submit until February 1, 2026 on economig2026.sciencesconf.org
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
The #CDSM2025 is coming up tomorrow: www.causalscience.org. Mara Mattes will present our joint work with Jannis Kueck on learning and testing the structure of interference effects in social networks - how the treatment of others affects one’s own outcomes - using graph convolutional autoencoders.
causalscience.org
Causal Data Science Meeting - Home
Fostering a dialogue between industry and academia on causal data science.
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
📢The #Fribourg #WinterSchool in #DataAnalytics & #MachineLearning is coming up (Feb 2–13, 2026)! On site at @unifr.bsky.social or online - covering data analytics, predictive & causal machine learning, and deep learning using Python, R, Julia & Knime. Register now: www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/w...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Very happy to attend the Young Researcher Workshop of the Universities of Tübingen and #Hohenheim (as an invitee, even if I’m not that young anymore 😉) - lots of great presentations and lively discussions, including on causal machine learning! Many thanks to B. Jung, M. Biewen & the organising team!
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
📚 In summer 2023, my book Causal Analysis was published with @mitpress.bsky.social. Just two years later😉 I’m very happy to share that the lecture slides are now freely available in both PDF and LaTeX (as zip files), along with the datasets and R/Python code: 👉 www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/r...
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Reposted by Martin Huber
GESIS Training @gesistraining.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
📣 Last Call! Don't miss the chance to 🤿 dive into IV and RDD in R with @causalhuber.bsky.social! Register Now! ➡️ t1p.de/caus-inf-2025
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
🚀 Registration is open for the #Fribourg #WinterSchool in #DataAnalytics & #MachineLearning, Feb 2–13 2026. 📍Hybrid: at Fribourg University or online 🔍Topics: data analytics, predictive/causal machine learning, deep learning 💻 Software: Python, R, Julia, Knime 👉 Sign up: www.unifr.ch/appecon/en/w...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
Thanks @p-hunermund.com!
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
😀 Attending the World Congress of the Econometric Society in the stunning city of Seoul, and thrilled to present joint work with N Apfel, J Hatamyar, & J Kueck on machine learning–based testing of conditions sufficient for identifying treatment effects: virtual.oxfordabstracts.com/event/73643/...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Excited to share our working paper “Machine Learning for Detecting Collusion and Capacity Withholding in Wholesale Electricity Markets”, joint with Jeremy Proz. We propose a machine learning–based approach for detecting cartels among suppliers in electricity markets: 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2508.09885
arxiv.org
Machine Learning for Detecting Collusion and Capacity Withholding in Wholesale Electricity Markets
Collusion and capacity withholding in electricity wholesale markets are important mechanisms of market manipulation. This study applies a refined machine learning-based cartel detection algorithm to t...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Very happy to be teaching a @gesistraining.bsky.social workshop on causal inference with instrumental variables and regression discontinuity designs on October 9–10, 2025. Registration is still open: training.gesis.org?site=pDetail...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
🎉 Seems like the release of "Impact Evaluation in Firms and Organizations" is off to a great start! Huge thanks to everyone who's been reading, sharing, and supporting my book! mitpress.mit.edu/978026255292...
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Martin Huber @causalhuber.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
📘 My book Impact Evaluation in Firms and Organizations is officially out today with @mitpress.bsky.social! An accessible, non-technical introduction to impact evaluation (& causal machine learning) designed for practitioners & students, with use cases in R & Python: mitpress.mit.edu/978026255292...
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