Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 9hCaution still needed, reckons NIESR's Charlotte O'Leary: "Higher borrowing costs have eroded...fiscal headroom, and the government paid its highest yield since 1998 to sell 30-year gilts in September. With the October Budget approaching, pressure remains on both expectations and term premium." 010
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 9hNIESR adds: "Elsewhere, fiscal risks are also at play: French and Italian premia now triple that of the US and UK with the OAT–Bund spread at its widest since the eurozone debt crisis." 100
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 9hHigh gilt yields still largely reflect rate expectations, not fiscal nerves, according to the latest Term Premium Tracker from @niesrorg.bsky.social. UK term premium (ie. yield not explained by rate expectations) inched up in Sept, but still below levels seen last winter niesr.ac.uk/reports/term... 180
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Very into the new Chinese Streamside Garden at RHS Bridgewater. 2143
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 04/10/2026Had always thought Budget 2026 would be a damp squib, maybe with an eye to gaming the fiscal rules ahead of the next election (à la Hunt). 130
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Didn't realise you were a fellow Scotland fan! 101
Reposted by Andy Bruce (Reuters)jamie powell @ajbpowell.bsky.social · 02/10/2026<whispers> the uk is 10-year is the best performing in developed mkts over the past year 4409
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Thorough and even-handed post from @robwoodecon.bsky.social on why, in his view, the UK's inflation problem is chronic rather than acute www.linkedin.com/pulse/uk-inf...linkedin.comUK inflation: from acute to chronic… with a tentative warningHas UK inflation really been heading comfortably back to target? The bulk of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has been arguing in the affirmative for some time—but for the war we'd be s... 052
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Not Chief Economist Huw Pill I think, who has similar views 121
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026BoE's Mann criticises mon. policy response to the Iran war. She disagrees with the idea that tighter UK fin. conditions are curbing inflation: no comfort as those conditions include higher inflation risk premium and uncertainty over BoE reaction function www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2026/...bankofengland.co.ukFinancial conditions: what’s priced in? − speech by Catherine L. MannGiven at the Nomura London Macro Forum 242
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Still a serious situation for the UK though in terms of the fiscal arithmetic. 30-year gilt yield today passed 6% for the first time since 1998. 282
Reposted by Andy Bruce (Reuters)Reuters @reuters.com · 01/10/2026EXCLUSIVE: US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban, sources say reut.rs/3U3eCngreut.rsEXCLUSIVE: US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban, sources sayThe Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories to help to ease global fuel prices or face a potential US diesel export ban, according to three people close to the discussions. 52169124
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026In the UK it still seems to be mostly interest rate expectations at play. Nothing much from the Labour conference moved the dial in terms of gilts, which is probably what they wanted. 280
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026UK bonds having a tough time today as part of a global rise in yields. French bonds underperforming tho - unlike the UK there seems to be a clear fiscal/political risk premium building in there. Asset swap spread and gap vs Bunds ballooning, CDS spiking (none of which really apply to the UK) 1102
Reposted by Andy Bruce (Reuters)Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Fed watchdog on HQ renovation that became Trump/Powell flashpoint: “At no point during our evaluation did we find reasonable grounds to believe that a violation of federal criminal law had occurred requiring a referral to the US attorney general."reuters.comWatchdog finds deficiencies but no Fed misconduct in Powell-era renovation projectThe Federal Reserve's Inspector General on Wednesday said it found no grounds for a criminal referral or administrative misconduct tied to cost overruns in a US central bank renovation project that ha... 14816
Reposted by Andy Bruce (Reuters)YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 29/09/2026SNAP POLL / By 48% to 28%, Britons support Andy Burnham's proposal to change the triple lock in order to help fund part of a national care service yougov.com/en-gb/daily-... yougov.com/en-gb/daily-... yougov.com/en-gb/daily-... 1028295
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Also to be clear, am talking about the current account deficit bsky.app/profile/bruc... 150
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Sorry, I didn't really describe that well - I should've said smallest current account deficit! 160
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Fans of spurious precision may be interested to know that to 2dp GDP grew by 0.53%, so it's a PROPER upward revision to 0.5% rather than a LAME rounding one (eg. 0.45%) 1140
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/20261.4% of GDP for that current account balance (exc prec metals), to be more precise bsky.app/profile/bruc... 352
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026So UK economy looking... pretty decent? Sadly it's hard to get that message across against the global bond market moves, tough fiscal arithmetic and dire geopolitics. 1194
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Get this - real GDP per head has grown by 1.1% over the first half of 2026. Excluding the swings caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, that's the largest increase since late 2017. 43111
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026🥳 UK economy grew more than thought in the second quarter. • GDP +0.5% qq versus a previous estimate of +0.4% (same with GDP per head) • Strong business investment growth (see 👇) • Current account balance (exc. precious metals) smallest in 5 years at 1% of GDP thanks to services exports 38733
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Anthropic is making a bet that AI will transform the global economy more profoundly than industrialization, electricity and the internet, according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters. Anthropic reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, the prospectus said. www.reuters.com/business/fin...reuters.comEXCLUSIVE: Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision, surging costsAnthropic is making a massive bet that AI will transform the global economy more profoundly than industrialization, electricity and the internet, according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters. The ... 0103
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Healey's tie that Gordon Brown borrowed and signed in 1999 130
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Literally the only reference to the Budget in Healey's speech was in connection to fiscal discipline... 040
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Any Blue Sky peeps at Labour conference? I am very lonely 073
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026A good look at the fiscal arithmetic ahead of the budget from TK Thoughts. I'm afraid I don't know who TK is but it's a Substack I've enjoyed reading over the past few years. substack.com/inbox/post/2...?substack.comA Look ahead to UK Budget 2026How much Fiscal Space do they have? 010
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Andrew Bailey says BoE staff feed the MPC minutes into an LLM before they are published to see how it will land in the outside world. Bailey says he has doubts ("Hmm where are you going on this") but concedes it has been "very helpful". 061
Reposted by Andy Bruce (Reuters)Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026October 2016 2124
Reposted by Andy Bruce (Reuters)Simon Nixon @nixonsimon.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Don't count on a circus of magic PuFINS to fly to Britain's economic rescue. My latest on how Labour's reforms to the fiscal rules were not the silver bullet some seem to hope they are - and may have made Britain's debt problems worse. First in a two-part series on Britain's wrecked balance sheetnixons.substack.comHow Britain Wrecked its Balance SheetFour decades of consuming public wealth rather than building it has eroded Britain’s resilience and its long-term debt sustainability, leaving the country acutely vulnerable to deglobalisation 0102
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026I neglected to mention this bsky.app/profile/kien... 010
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Although BRC/Opinium and S&P Global had surveys that showed a bit of a drop. 🤷 122
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026UK consumer confidence has hit a more than two-year high, according to GfK, symbolised below by the purchase of mangoes. Another bit of generally positive sentiment data. YouGov/Cebr and LSEG/Ipsos surveys have also shown rising consumer morale this month. www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...reuters.comUK consumer confidence hits more than two-year high in September, GfK saysBritish consumer confidence unexpectedly struck a more than two-year high this month as households grew more optimistic about their personal finances, according to a survey on Friday that added to r... 3288
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Great to have an apocalypse version of Clegg's "but it'd take us until 2025 to get new nuclear plants!" clip banked for the decades ahead. I look forward to watching it on the ash heaps. 070
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026I would show the smart Treasury friend a dictionary definition of 'investment' and then bop him repeatedly over the head with it. Just a Collins Pocket one though as we want him to go back to the Treasury chastened but not traumatised. 030
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said on Thursday that interest rates will likely have to rise if energy prices stay elevated, unless there is clear evidence of a weaker economy. www.reuters.com/business/boe...reuters.comBoE's Lombardelli sees rates rising if energy prices stay highBank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said on Thursday that interest rates will likely have to rise if energy prices stay elevated, unless there is clear evidence of a weaker economy. 110
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026"If policy were to be set that the Chancellor should have a margin of safety, then immediately it becomes a requirement to have a margin of safety to make sure you don’t put the margin of safety at risk" @dsquareddigest.bsky.social channels Goodhart's Law substack.com/inbox/post/2...substack.comheadroom on the headroomoffice of budget irresponsibility, part 1 122
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026If you really don't want to be in hock to bonds, you could just not rule out hikes on the biggest part of the tax base! 140
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026It's like there's two Britains - your personal vibes one where you have a philosophical view of how it's not working - and the real one where you need to work with the mechanics of tax and debt. 150
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Bearing in mind that Team Burnham was talking until recently about room to borrow more for investment - as if this is some other bond market. 120
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026I struggle to grasp exactly what Burnham means with this stuff, beyond vague "who elected the bond market?" frustration. Let's say the UK has left itself "over-exposed". But what were the choices that left it so? The Financial Crisis and COVID are big reasons so many gilts exist. 251
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026What do Stockport, Rochdale and Oldham not have that the other boroughs of Manchester do? 200
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026It's certainly not a fiscal hourglass - where is the spending hole?! 011
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026• Chris Philp insisting the bond market moves were simply global in nature. He pointed to an illustrative tax/GDP ready reckoner as proof that the mini-budget would pay for itself • Andrew Griffith misleading Sky News viewers on views of the BoE's chief economist (amazed that didn't get more play) 061
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Main memories of the mini-budget: • although I was convinced it would go badly wrong I was still astonished by the ferocity of the market moves as Kwarteng spoke • Willem Buiter telling me it was "totally, totally nuts" (one of those gold-dust quotes for a story) 272