iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

And one about the folk who bang on about rates being too low/QE in the 2010s

Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Britannia Shield was an absolutely cracking home insurance product from 1985, it's no wonder Kemi Badenoch wants to pay tribute with a missile defence network

"Britannia Shield provides the package for all that is usually required in home insurance, and does it in one policy," said the Society's deputy
general manager, Mr George Belfield.
"The cost is all inclusive and often cheaper than separate policies and premiums for buildings insurance, contents and all risks. We expect that
most borrowers will opt for the new scheme on the grounds of simplicity.
By including areas normally regarded as extras on contents insurance, such as all-risks on valuables, clothing and personal effects, cash and
bicycles, Britannia Shield provides wider cover which is still competitive - and in some cases cheaper

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

High gilt yields still largely reflect rate expectations, not fiscal nerves, according to the latest Term Premium Tracker from @niesrorg.bsky.social. UK term premium (ie. yield not explained by rate expectations) inched up in Sept, but still below levels seen last winter niesr.ac.uk/reports/term...

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Very into the new Chinese Streamside Garden at RHS Bridgewater.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Still a serious situation for the UK though in terms of the fiscal arithmetic. 30-year gilt yield today passed 6% for the first time since 1998.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Get this - real GDP per head has grown by 1.1% over the first half of 2026. Excluding the swings caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, that's the largest increase since late 2017.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

🥳 UK economy grew more than thought in the second quarter. • GDP +0.5% qq versus a previous estimate of +0.4% (same with GDP per head) • Strong business investment growth (see 👇) • Current account balance (exc. precious metals) smallest in 5 years at 1% of GDP thanks to services exports

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Healey's tie that Gordon Brown borrowed and signed in 1999

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

• Chris Philp insisting the bond market moves were simply global in nature. He pointed to an illustrative tax/GDP ready reckoner as proof that the mini-budget would pay for itself • Andrew Griffith misleading Sky News viewers on views of the BoE's chief economist (amazed that didn't get more play)

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Behold, the fiscal hourglass. Not to be used with handcuffs.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Longer-term inflation expectations — the 5y5y forward breakeven the BoE watches — have been relatively stable. Up a bit lately but not what you'd expect if market thought inflation was coming truly unanchored, which could be linked to a fiscally irresponsible government

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Here's the 5-year credit default swap, effectively the cost of insuring against the government failing to pay its debts. Nothing to see here! Note how this is completely unlike the couple of months running up to the minibudget (to say nothing of the event itself).

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Here's the asset swap spread for the 20-year gilt, the sort of long-dated bond that might reflect fiscal worries. This spread compares gilt yields against the rates banks charge each other. If it widens, it can be a sign that investors view gilts as riskier. But it's been pretty steady for a while.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Andy Haldane - for it is he - calls for public spending to be slashed, as that would lower yields and thereby reap a “growth dividend”. From @lbc.co.uk

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Here is Steve Reed in March. The cabinet minister was asked directly what government will do about huge domestic donations that "warps our politics and moves it away from public discourse in favour of the interests of the wealthy." Reed simply replies that this is not the government's focus.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

We're all still trying to find the political party that allowed this to happen

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The BoE has moved to Savanta from Ipsos for this survey. When they ran both in parallel last time round, the Savanta survey turned out noticeably lower results for inflation expectations in years ahead vs Ipsos. So this looks like a major structural break in the series.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Bank of England survey of public shows marked fall in inflation expectations... although in truth it's hard to know what to make of it because of a change in survey provider.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

An early take on the horror of 9/11. A friend who still works for Reuters made that call to Cantor.

NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Two planes crashed into the towers of the World Trade Center in New York on Tuesday morning, causing huge explosions and killing at least six people, television said.

CNBC television said there were at least a thousand injured.

Both towers of the lower Manhattan landmark, where thousands of people work in offices and which was the scene of a bombing in 1993, were burning after the crashes.

The FBI told the Associated Press that it was "foul play" and not an accident, ABC television reported.

A person who answered the phone on the trading floor at interdealer-broker Cantor Fitzgerald, located near the top of the World Trade Center, said "We're fucking dying," when asked what was happening, and hung up. There was screaming and yelling in the background. A follow up call was not answered.

Nic Fulton, an eyewitness, said that just before the first explosion, he saw a plane fly low over his apartment in the Soho district of lower Manhattan.

"A plane flew incredibly low over my apartment. We've never seen a plane this low before," Fulton said.

He said it was a large, white plane with two jet engines, but he was not able to identify it further. "There's so much smoke coming out of the thing," he said.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Part of manufacturing that is going great guns: the computing equipment sector (again, AI-related). Output up 16% in the last year.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Also worth adding that UK manufacturing has quietly been doing well - output is 2.7% higher than a year ago

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

GDP rose 0.4%. The ONS linked much of the increase to AI-related industries.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

UK economy popped higher again in July - confounding expectations for a slowdown in growth. "Growing busting the consensus expectations again means we have to upgrade our description of the economy from resilient to showing some strength," reckons Pantheon Macro economist @robwoodecon.bsky.social.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Hmm, I'm not sure it was "trust penalty" that Healey said in his growth speech this week😅

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Gilt yields griding a bit higher again after yesterday's sell-off. 10-year yield now highest since August 2007. Short-dated yields at new three-year highs.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Hopefully these gigantic robot arms do not malfunction during the Chancellor's speech

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

I did notice this little dig at Carney's forward guidance from Pill's speech today

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

BoE Chief Economist Pill once again hits out at colleagues' "wait-and-see" framing of policy. He thinks it makes BoE look passive: it shouldn't just be relying on changes in risk premia to control inflation. Pill seeks rate hike to "cut through the noise" in period of uncertainty that may not lift

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Some more positive UK consumer confidence readings this morning. Adds to a good run of late. 👇 • YouGov/Cebr index rises to highest since Feb, helped by improving morale around business activity and personal finances • Ipsos Economic Optimism Index highest since June 2025 (but still pretty low)

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Sorry but this is tosh from Jim O'Neill. 10-year gilt yields did not rise by a quarter of a percentage point (25 bps) today. They rose by 15.5 bps. That's not great of course, but it's the biggest rise since May 15 — not "Liz Truss days". ( @lbc.co.uk - Andrew Marr Show)

On the state of the bond markets today, Lord O’Neill said:

'It is a tough day today. 10-year gilt yields or 10-year interest rates have risen by a quarter of a percent, which in one day is a lot. We've not had that since Liz Truss days… If your country, whether it be ours or others, is under the focus of, can they come up with a sensible fiscal strategy on a day where the markets think "Well, no you're not showing any signs of it" they're going to have a bad day. When I woke up this morning I thought uh oh this is going to be tough. I didn't think it'd be quite this tough but it's been a tough day.’

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Weird that HMT highlighted the fall in the gilt issuance remit as an achievement, in a press release over the weekend. 1. Big chunk of that fall is simply the fact that fewer gilts are due to mature this financial year which need refinancing. That rebounds next year, and so will gilt issuance.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

With Andrew Griffith becoming shadow chancellor, a reminder of the time he misled Sky News viewers about how a top Bank of England official described the market reaction to the minibudget 👇

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Protected by two sentry Prets to the west and south

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

They absolutely should. I fear no military can take out Pret Death Star however

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Treasury may be a bit disappointed by today's figures showing a deficit in July. Expectations had been for a balanced budget, with July being a big month for self-assessed income tax receipts. BUT… worth noting borrowing has ended up being revised down in every month this calendar year

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Adds to signs of resilience in the economy but also recent good news in UK manufacturing. ONS data last week showed the sector recorded a third consecutive quarter of growth. Output at a record level, if you look past anomalous late-2020/early 2021 affected by lockdown timing, Brexit deadlines.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

CBI's gauge of manufacturing orders just rose to its highest level since November 2024. While still at a pretty low level in the scheme of things, it rose by 20 points in August - one of the biggest jumps since records began in the 1970s.

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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

And again. Nothing says the north quite like *checks notes* a Nissan Qashqai.

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