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Brandon Hayes

@brandonhayes.bsky.social
3K followers 557 following 183 posts

Researching infectious disease emergence dynamics, somewhere between epi stats and math @INRAE-ENVT || Enthusiast of record shops, bookstores, and cafes, especially if there's a cat || Team oxford comma, even more team em-dash.

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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Reposting from last year since sadly NWS is back on the front page
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Biggest scandal on Bluesky right now, unfolding in real time!
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Simon Cauchemez @scauchemez.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Just a few days left to apply to one of these postdoc positions in my Unit at @pasteur.fr!
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Birds Are Dinosaurs @birdsaredinosaurs.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Serious suggestion: let's send a poet to the Moon. No knock on the science nerds, who are load bearing, but maybe we need to diversify our space dorks and include an English major.
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INRAE_France @inrae-france.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
#RP_INRAE Peste porcine africaine : des scientifiques d’INRAE, de @envt.bsky.social et de @anses-fr.bsky.social ont créé un modèle original pour évaluer les transmissions entre porcs domestiques et sangliers, mettant en évidence une transmission bidirectionnelle. 👉 url.inrae.fr/4det9nr
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Merci @inrae-france.bsky.social pour cette belle vulgarisation de notre travail—un modèle original pour mieux comprendre les transmission PPA entre les porcs domestiques et sangliers 🐖↔️🐗 www.inrae.fr/actualites/p...
inrae.fr
Peste porcine africaine : un modèle original pour évaluer les transmissions entre porcs domestiques et sangliers
COMMUNIQUÉ DE PRESSE - Des scientifiques d’INRAE, de l’ENVT et de l’Anses ont créé un modèle multi-espèces original s’appuyant sur les données d’une épidémie de peste porcine africaine survenue en Roumanie. Les résultats publiés dans Nature Communications mettent en évidence la transmission bidirectionnelle entre les porcs domestiques et sauvages.
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Thrilled to share our latest pub in @natcomms.nature.com, where we quantify interspecific transmission contributions to ASF epidemic spread. Sincerest thanks to both co-authors and reviewers! rdcu.be/faKf9 @timvergne.bsky.social @envt.bsky.social @anses-fr.bsky.social @inrae-france.bsky.social
rdcu.be
A multi-host mechanistic model of African swine fever emergence and control in Romania
Nature Communications - African swine fever is an important disease of domestic pigs that can also affect wild boars. Here the authors use a multi-host mechanistic model to investigate the relative...
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Ana Bento @anaisabelbento.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Our new study bit.ly/4srWRKd looks beyond “where could the virus survive?” and asks a more practical question: if Oropouche is introduced into a community, where is it most likely to ignite an outbreak. #orov #arbovirus #brazil
bit.ly
Ecological and demographic drivers of Oropouche virus transmission - Nature Health
Nationwide analysis of 30,086 confirmed Oropouche virus cases in Brazil between 2014 and 2025 shows that rural municipalities had over 11-fold-higher incidence than urban areas and identifies demograp...
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
just suffered psychic damage reading the phrase "stochastic means having a random variable"
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Happy #SuperbOwl 🦉 Sunday to all who celebrate.
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HPAI Modelling Challenge @hpai-mod-challenge.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
The HPAI Modelling Challenge launches tomorrow! If you haven't received a calendar invite for the kick-off meetings despite submitting a registration, please contact us at hpai-modelling-challenge at wiliman-id.eu
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Mark A. Hanson @hansonmark.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
We've got ISSUES. Literally. We scraped >100k special issues & over 1 million articles to bring you a PISS-poor paper. We quantify just how many excess papers are published by guest editors abusing special issues to boost their CVs. How bad is it & what can we do? arxiv.org/abs/2601.07563 A 🧵 1/n
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Prof Gavin Yamey MD MPH @gavinyamey.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
This OpEd, by the inspirational @drdemetre.bsky.social in today’s @washingtonpost.com, is one of the best pieces of science writing of 2025 I’ll be assigning it to my students next semester in my class on ‘policy writing—turning evidence into public health action’ Thx Ed, for the free access link👇
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Colin Carlson @colincarlson.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
NEW!🦠🌡️ : What makes a "dengue year" like 2023-24? It's hard to pin down an answer unless you can homogenize out all the spatial variation and temporal trends. But once you do, the answer is pretty clean: dengue years are hot years. Last one of the year (unless...?) 👉 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Graph showing temperature anomaly and other covariates' effects on "RISc" score globally and by region
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
another day, another article with fake or misleading citations and substandard methods being published in a megajournal despite my rejection recommendation 🤷
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students. I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
course schedule as a table. Available at the link in the post.
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
We did some stats, stats on cats. To find FIV rates, in strays and pets. With sequenced strains, evolution was tracked, Now in Vet Research, Cat stat map graphs 🥳 🐈‍⬛ 🧮 🗺️ � @pierrebessiere.bsky.social @epidesa.bsky.social link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Seroprevalence and genetic diversity of feline immunodeficiency virus in outdoor cats in France - Veterinary Research
Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) is a retrovirus that causes lifelong infections in cats and may lead to immune dysfunction. Despite its importance for feline health, there is limited FIV data from...
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James Hay @jameshay.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
H3N2 preprint: there are concerns of a severe incoming influenza season due to the drifted H3N2 K clade. We at @psioxford.bsky.social analysed epi data and ran scenario models to see what we could discern about K clade transmission dynamics: zenodo.org/records/1770.... (1/18)
zenodo.org
Evaluation of the epidemiological outlook of the influenza A/H3N2 clade K in England during the 2025-26 season
Key findings England is currently experiencing a high growth rate of infections caused by the influenza A/H3N2 K clade. Antigenic change from the previously dominant clade, a rapid selective sweep evi...
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Fresh start to the day with some Grade-A LinkedIn AI slop
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rainbowR @rainbowr.org · 06/11/2025
🌈 The website for the inaugural rainbowR conference is now live! 🎉 🗓️ Save the date: Feb 25th-26th, 2026 📣 Call for submissions is open 👯 We're bringing together LGBTQ+ R users to promote our work and foster connections among community members conference.rainbowr.org
conference.rainbowr.org
– rainbowR conference
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Sure academic spam and predatory journal solicitations are unwanted clutter, but starting the day with being called "eminent" and told "your recent publication has been provisionally selected for the "Best Researcher Award."" Why yes go off queen 🥰
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Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
(With apologies to Randall Munroe)
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Classical Studies Memes for Hellenistic Teens @csmfht.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
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Sam Abbott @seabbs.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
This is today at 3pm uk time. As a change of pace I think there will be a fairly heavy #julialang component
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Thomas House @tah-sci.com · 30/09/2025
I love this. Explainer: There are 100 outcomes (all squares) each equally likely. Wiggly lines event happens 20% of the time; grey event happens 30% of the time. >
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The Museum of English Rural Life (MERL) @themerl.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
yeah we're into LLMs (Large Lamb-bridge Models)
A herd of sheep move across a marshy bridge.
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Zach Weinersmith @zachweinersmith.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Incidentally, in my experience this is the ultimate way to tell an arts nerd from a stem nerd. Arts nerd like the aesthetics of the left side, stem nerds like the logic of the right side. Linguists, being right at the periphery, refuse to choose sides.
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Communications Biology @commsbio.nature.com · 23/09/2025
a bit delayed, but still hot: ‪‪A phylodynamic study, conducted in southwestern France, on the importance of farm density when it comes to avian influenza spread: www.nature.com/articles/s42... @claireguinat.bsky.social @epidesa.bsky.social
nature.com
Poultry farm density and proximity drive highly pathogenic avian influenza spread - Communications Biology
A study using phylodynamics to investigate highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 spread in southwestern France in 2020 and 2021 demonstrates that a single introduction led to rapid spread, mainly in duck farms, with farm density driving transmission.
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Chuffed to announce that registration for the HPAI Modelling Challenge is now open! Interested in testing your modelling team's outbreak response capabilities in a synthetic, peacetime setting? Want to contribute to the improvement of HPAI epidemic preparedness? Check out below:
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Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Recently came across the really useful term 'Moat of Low Status' from Cate Hall. It describes why we find it so difficult to take steps required to fulfil our ambitions - if we're already good at one thing, it's hard to endure being bad at something else.
usefulfictions.substack.com
Learn to love the Moat of Low Status
It hurts, but less than you think
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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
Whether it's Democrats making it harder for kids to get cigarettes or Republicans making it harder for kids to get vaccines, both sides have imposed the will of government on America's children.
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
When Woody Guthrie proclaimed “This Machine Kills Fascists” this is exactly what he meant 🇺🇸 youtu.be/PL0oB1gbZE4?... #SongoftheYear
youtu.be
The Ballad of Big Balls
YouTube video by Jesse Welles
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Maryn McKenna @marynmck.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Bsky is so disseminated that you never know who is seeing what. So I want to be sure that people see that the foremost public and global health law theorist in the US, Lawrence Gostin of Georgetown Law, is here on Bsky and doesn't have nearly enough followers. Fix that, folks.
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IDDjobs @iddjobs.org · 26/08/2025
2 x Postdocs (Berkeley, CA, USA) Infectious-disease modelling & phylodynamics for pandemic preparedness with ‪@charleswhittaker.bsky.social‬ at @petal-team.bsky.social‬ @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social‬ ‪@berkeleypublichlth.bsky.social‬ More details: iddjobs.org/jobs/2351
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Screwworm is making headlines because of this rare imported human case, but a slightly important omission from these articles is just how *insanely catastrophic* a New World Screwworm (NWS) epidemic would be on people, livestock, pets, and the US economy. 1/7
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public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
NEW: The CDC shooting was public health’s Jan. 6. from @colincarlson.bsky.social and myself for @statnews.com. we do not make this comparison lightly, and we bring the receipts.
statnews.com
The CDC shooting was public health’s Jan. 6
“In RFK Jr.’s America, it will never be safe to practice public health or medicine," write an epidemiologist and a former CDC staffer.
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Love all those calligraphic letters we get to use in stat formulas. I hope other disciplines get to experience the joy of writing a fancy Y rather than the regular boring one.
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Dave Levitan @davelevitan.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
This op-ed from NIH director Jay Bhattacharya is *infuriating*. He says we have to stop funding mRNA vaccine research because it hasn't "earned public trust." Motherfucker, WHO DID THAT.
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Jay Bhattacharya: Why the NIH is pivoting away from mRNA vaccines
As a vaccine for broad public use, mRNA technology has failed to earn the public’s trust.
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Prof Sheena Cruickshank @sheencr.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Bird flu is spreading a LOT in dairy farms now in US- now is the time for surveillance and stepping up action on vaccine- but US has Kennedy who seems to think infections are fine and has cancelled the contract for developing a mrna bird flu vaccine
biorxiv.org
Surveillance on California dairy farms reveals multiple sources of H5N1 transmission
Transmission routes of highly pathogenic H5N1 between cows or to humans remain unclear due to limited data from affected dairy farms. We performed extensive air, farm wastewater, and milk sampling on ...
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Abby Dernburg @adernburg.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
For who still thinks this can’t happen here… it’s already happening. www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...
theatlantic.com
Every Scientific Empire Comes to an End
America’s run as the premiere techno-superpower may be over.
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Ian M. Mackay, PhD (he/him) 🦠🤧🧬📑🦟🧀 @mackayim.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
The “Infection Pause”: because its about fewer infections, not an immune debt to repay There was a real, measurable shift in the peak season for several endemic human pathogens as well as a rebound in infections, coinfections, and disease severity among them after the COVID-19 pandemic's…
virologydownunder.com
The “Infection Pause”: because its about fewer infections, not an immune debt to repay
There was a real, measurable shift in the peak season for several endemic human pathogens as well as a rebound in infections, coinfections, and disease severity among them after the COVID-19 pandemic's restrictions on human mixing were lifted. To create a conversational phrase for this, the term "Immune Debt" was coined. This term wasn't well understood and was also misinterpreted, changed and criticised by some in public and scientific circles.
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Liz Essley Whyte @lizessleywhyte.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
NEW The White House is blocking the NIH from awarding new research grants for the rest of the fiscal year Chokes off billions in research funding Gift link www.wsj.com/politics/pol... with @nidhisubs.bsky.social
wsj.com
Trump Administration Puts New Chokehold on Billions in Health-Research Funding
The National Institutes of Health can’t award grants to outside researchers under a new White House restriction.
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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
You should never follow any of these color charts. They are all stupid. I'll show you why. 🧵
Someone on Twitter posted a color chart for how to combine different shirts and pants.
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Neil Vora, MD @conservationdoc.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Over 100,000 people die from measles each year globally—a completely preventable tragedy. With U.S. cases rising, we risk losing our elimination status. I shared insights with @emilymullin.bsky.social / Wired magazine on what’s driving the outbreak. www.wired.com/story/can-us...
wired.com
Can US Measles Outbreaks Be Stopped?
The US almost lost its measles elimination status once. Lessons from that episode suggest it will be more difficult to avoid doing so now.
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Benjamin Pope @benjaminpope.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
getting in an arms race with LLMs over em-dashes by using dashes so long ——— so very long ——— that they have never appeared in training data
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Vincent Traag @vtraag.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
New preprint! 🚨 We study the interaction between misinformation and science on Twitter during COVID-19 based on ~407M tweets. Both science and misinformation featured prominently during the pandemic, but the interaction between the two has not been studied on this scale before. 🧵 (1/10)
Mapping the interaction between science and misinformation in COVID-19 tweets.
Publication from @luzuzek.bsky.social, Juan Pablo Bascur, @annabertani.bsky.social, @ricgallotti.bsky.social. This project is supported by European Media and Information Fund.

Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, scientific understanding related to the topic evolved rapidly. Along with scientific information being discussed widely, a large circulation of false information, labelled an infodemic by the WHO, emerged. Here, we study the interaction between misinformation and science on Twitter (now X) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We built a comprehensive database of  407M COVID-19 related tweets and classified the reliability of URLs in the tweets based on Media Bias/Fact Check. In addition, we use Altmetric data to see whether a tweet refers to a scientific publication. We find that many users find that many users share both scientific and unreliable content; out of the  1.2M users who share science,   also share unreliable content. Publications that are more frequently shared by users who also share unreliable content are more likely to be preprints, slightly more often retracted, have fewer citations, and are published in lower-impact journals on average. Our findings suggest that misinformation is not related to a ``deficit'' of science. In addition, our findings raise some critical questions about certain open science practices and their potential for misuse. Given the fundamental opposition between science and misinformation, our findings highlight the necessity for proactive scientific engagement on social media platforms to counter false narratives during global crises.
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Thiago Carvalho @cyrilpedia.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
'The myth of meritocracy in science collapses under the financial sacrifices expected at every career stage. From unpaid internships and self-funded conferences to underpaid graduate and postdoctoral positions, the hidden costs of ‘doing science’ are profound.' journals.plos.org/plosbiology/...
journals.plos.org
Too poor to science: How wealth determines who succeeds in STEM
From student to researcher, a career in science can come with a high price tag. This Perspective explores how persistent financial barriers limit who can succeed in science, revealing how wealth shape...
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Brandon Hayes @brandonhayes.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Good thread on the appeal of the 'data science' label and how the seemingly-blurred lines between—and admin perceptions of—Stat, DS, and CS have real consequences to funding, training, and futures. Worth a quick read 📖
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Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Will be interested to see how this develops – it's very common in research for people to focus on (and report) only one corner of the workflow, e.g. inferential model -> estimate
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