iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Now you're really showing your ignorance. Y2K wasn't a disaster precisely because $300 - $600 billion was spent preventing it. www.si.edu/spotlight/y2k

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Hmm I'd argue recently public opinion trends track cumulative net non-EU immigration - looking at overall annual net hides it. I updated this Economist figure (left) but using ONS data which has by-group immigration and emigration data (right). www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/pe...

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

A key question now is whether this is part of the initial cluster likely spawned by the index case, or potentially a third generation case. Based on what's known about the incubation period/serial interval, I estimate that there is a 74% chance that this a third gen case: github.com/bquilty25/ho...

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

I also saw a post about the latest Ebola outbreak with the same "worry" framing!

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

How have UK social contact patterns changed post-pandemic? How assortative are they by age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status? Pleased to share our new @plosmedicine.org paper, jointly led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and myself, with @kevinvzandvoort.bsky.social and John Edmunds. #IDSky

Seven heatmaps displaying social contact matrices, stratified by age, setting, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Colour gradients indicate the mean number of contacts, with lighter yellows and greens representing higher values and dark purples representing lower values.

Panel A shows total contacts by participant and contact age group, highlighting strong mixing between similar ages along the diagonal, and secondary parallel bands representing parent-child interactions.

Panels B through E break down these age contacts by setting. Home displays distinct family and intergenerational patterns, Work shows mixing primarily among working-age adults, School shows highly intense mixing restricted to school-age children, and Other settings display general age assortativity.

Panel F illustrates total contacts by ethnic group. It reveals strong assortative mixing, with the highest mean contact numbers occurring between individuals of the same ethnicity, specifically within White, Black, and Asian demographic groups.

Panel G displays total contacts by NS-SEC socioeconomic classification and life stage. This matrix demonstrates assortative mixing within similar occupational classes, alongside a notably high concentration of contacts among participants and contacts classified as under 17.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Big missed opportunity if this isn't happening

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Although it is still shared by @boghuma.bsky.social, with a looot of traction over on Threads. I don't doubt that it was an honest mistake, but please can you take this misleading diagram down?

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Why is the Swiss case on the left hand side, clustered with Case 1 and 2 in a section titled "presumed source outside of the ship"? And why are they linked by an arrow? We do not have enough information to infer that. We also don't know if Case 1 and 2 had a common exposure or if one infected 2.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

To point out a few things - why does it imply that the Swiss case was in "Cabin A"(?) and "disembarked in South America"? They disembarked on St Helena on 24th April.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

Whether or not interest is capped at RPI, or thresholds are unfrozen, middle earning graduates will continue to be squeezed the most while the richest pay less.

4-panel line chart titled "The Student Loan Trap: Whether or not interest is capped at inflation, or thresholds are indexed to inflation, middle earners are squeezed the hardest."

The charts map total lifetime repayment (Y-axis, £0 to £120k) against starting graduate salary (X-axis, £25k to £150k) for a £50k Plan 2 loan over 30 years.

Top Left: "Current policy: Frozen threshold, Sliding interest up to RPI+3%." Total repayments peak steeply at nearly £120k for salaries around £70k before dropping for higher earners. Lower and middle earners pay significantly more than the original loan. Top Right: "Indexed threshold." The peak shifts right to £80k salaries, maxing near £90k. Bottom Left: "Frozen threshold, Flat interest (RPI only)." Peak drops to £80k for £55k earners. Bottom Right: "Indexed threshold, Flat interest." The flattest curve, peaking near £70k for £70k earners.

All panels show a large orange area representing unpaid debt written off after 30 years, and a green area indicating fully repaid loans for higher earners. Middle-income earners consistently hit the highest peak of total lifetime repayments in all four scenarios.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

Great to see @christophraser.bsky.social discuss daily contact testing as a way of reducing quarantine burden at the UK Covid Inquiry. However, it is disappointing this is the only mention of this policy in the entire 12 days of the Test, Trace, and Isolate Module.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

Now to make the most mid latte art of all time 🤩

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

Like I think the below is rather simplistic, as the success of NPIs in large part is determined by timely development and rollout of PIs. Hard lockdown early isn't going to be effective if you haven't rolled out good vaccines by the time you loosen it - look at experience of Australia/NZ vs China.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Of course its already a thing: knowyourmeme.com/memes/accide... Article: www.theguardian.com/business/202...

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

This photo in @theguardian.com looks like a screenshot from an isometric strategy video game:

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

Gotta be that guy and say it's the proportion of people within those that said they wouldn't want to go to the moon, so it's a smaller fraction of the overall population (0.23*0.48 = ~11%)

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Ryanair: we should limit people to two drinks at European airports Berlin airport: BIERTOWER

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

Today I learnt Charlie Brooker was one of the founders of CeX, and designed their logo?!

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

Glastonbury ticket from 1986. Seems a bit steep...

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 04/01/2025

🇮🇪☘️🇪🇺🎉🇮🇪☘️🇪🇺🎉

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

Very sad to see the loss of such an effectively explanatory pub sign in Nine Elms (June vs. now in December)

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

To be very charitable, they do write that the group name was a shortcoming. Regardless, we should take issue with "effective" in the title, as effectiveness wasn't assessed. It should be titled "reflections on" or similar - it's below such senior scientists to be so nakedly self-congratulatory.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

this morning + Covid booster (a bit late, but hopefully should kick in before Xmas)

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Great to finally visit the WHO Pandemic Hub in Berlin for the first time - I'll be working between here and Charité over the next few years on my project investigating how best to apply AI tools in outbreaks/pandemics.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Thanks @lshtm.bsky.social for putting my "accidental aRt" up in the new building at Tavistock Place! I knew GCSE Art would pay off some day.

Accidental aRt made in R and ggplot2 when trying to make a figure showing how different S. pneumoniae serotyping and genotyping methods agree with each other.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 08/11/2024

Excellent first edition of the Infectious Disease Modelling conference in Bangkok! Great to have the opportunity to talk about how AI could be useful in outbreaks - really looking forward to the next one in a couple of years. #idm2024

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 11/10/2024

Some news: after 6 years at LSHTM, I've moved to Berlin to start a postdoc at Charité Berlin! I'll be working with Prof. Stefan Flasche to investigate how best to use AI in tackling outbreaks, partnering with WHO Pandemic Hub and others - really looking forward to getting started.

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 30/08/2024

2025: Guinness denies knowledge of viral "split the G" drinking challenge and reassures customers that "the text on the logo has always been at the bottom of the glass"

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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 13/08/2024

Pretty strong hint to hit the X button on X this morning...

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