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Lucy Goodfellow

@lucygoodfellow.bsky.social
364 followers 113 following 1 posts

Infectious disease modelling & demography @ LSHTM

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Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
How have UK social contact patterns changed post-pandemic? How assortative are they by age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status? Pleased to share our new @plosmedicine.org paper, jointly led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and myself, with @kevinvzandvoort.bsky.social and John Edmunds. #IDSky
Seven heatmaps displaying social contact matrices, stratified by age, setting, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Colour gradients indicate the mean number of contacts, with lighter yellows and greens representing higher values and dark purples representing lower values.

Panel A shows total contacts by participant and contact age group, highlighting strong mixing between similar ages along the diagonal, and secondary parallel bands representing parent-child interactions.

Panels B through E break down these age contacts by setting. Home displays distinct family and intergenerational patterns, Work shows mixing primarily among working-age adults, School shows highly intense mixing restricted to school-age children, and Other settings display general age assortativity.

Panel F illustrates total contacts by ethnic group. It reveals strong assortative mixing, with the highest mean contact numbers occurring between individuals of the same ethnicity, specifically within White, Black, and Asian demographic groups.

Panel G displays total contacts by NS-SEC socioeconomic classification and life stage. This matrix demonstrates assortative mixing within similar occupational classes, alongside a notably high concentration of contacts among participants and contacts classified as under 17.
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Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Dr Roz Eggo @rozeggo.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Symposium & workshop on inequalities in infectious disease dynamics at LSHTM in April 2026. We aim to will bring together leading researchers and practitioners to share ideas, discuss recent advances, and reflect on future directions. Details & application: iddconf.org/lshtm-sympos... Closing 21 Jan
iddconf.org
Social Inequalities in Infectious Disease Dynamics: a Symposium and Workshop
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Lucy Goodfellow @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
New pre-print looking at social contacts and mixing by age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status in the UK. We found that contacts have decreased since before COVID, but are up from figures found in 2022. We also show what this means for infectious disease dynamics in a novel pathogen outbreak 👇
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Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Simon Procter @mert0248.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Great to see our work on the value of better influenza vaccines published in Plos Med today. Led by the amazingly talented @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social, together with @rozeggo.bsky.social, @markjit.bsky.social and other colleagues @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social and elsewhere. doi.org/10.1371/jour...
doi.org
The potential global health impact and cost-effectiveness of next-generation influenza vaccines: A modelling analysis
Using influenza surveillance data, Lucy Goodfellow and colleagues model the potential global health impacts and cost effectiveness of next-generation influenza vaccines designed to increase efficacy a...
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Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
lucygobag.bsky.social @lucygobag.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Trump’s shocking plan for Gaza is an all-too-common approach. This is what must happen instead | Lucy Easthope
Far too often, developers treat rebuilding like colonising a planet. Instead, Palestinians must be at the heart of everything, and the sooner the better, says emergency adviser Lucy Easthope
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Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Simon Procter @mert0248.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Happy to have played part in this with most of the hard work done by the amazing @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and Carl Pearson. @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social
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Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Justin Lessler @justinlessler.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Congrats to team member Carl Pearson and his co-authors @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and @mert0248.bsky.social. An important tool for a pervasive problem in modeling infectious disease data www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
medrxiv.org
paramix : An R package for parameter discretisation in compartmental models, with application to calculating years of life lost
Compartmental infectious disease models are used to calculate disease transmission, estimate underlying rates, forecast future burden, and compare benefits across intervention scenarios. These models ...
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Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Dr Roz Eggo @rozeggo.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
We used a transmission model to understand differences in Covid severity and mortality in different socioeconomic strata in England. The model had different demography and underlying health status by strata. Led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com
COVID-19 inequalities in England: a mathematical modelling study of transmission risk and clinical vulnerability by socioeconomic status - BMC Medicine
Background The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major inequalities in infection and disease burden between areas of varying socioeconomic deprivation in many countries, including England. Areas of higher...
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