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Billy Quilty

@bquilty.bsky.social
1.3K followers 1.8K following 163 posts

Infectious disease epidemiologist and modeller based at Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, honourary LSHTM | PhD LSHTM | MSc Imperial College London | Twitter: @BQuilty

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Reposted by Billy Quilty
Sam Abbott @seabbs.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A few years ago we (Kelly Charniga @sangwoopark.bsky.social et al.) did some thinking on how we should estimate and report epidemiological delay distributions (i.e incubation periods etc. etc.). journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol...
journals.plos.org
Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases
Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can guide control strat...
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I would have thought the development of something which is able to make the working class obsolete would be something the left would take more seriously, but nope its all BS apparently. Real head in the sand behaviour which will come back to bite us, big time.
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
There are already many rogue agents on the web - we've just previously called them computer viruses, or bots. A capable agent on OpenAI may not escape containment itself could rent server space, infect people's computers, etc., and create many more agents, then direct them to do nefarious things.
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
A nice concept but seems a bit... obvious...? to be in Nature? Ah, it was first up on arxiv a year ago. Perhaps says a lot about how quickly things are progressing in the field that this seems less than revolutionary - like in COVID, journals will struggle to keep up arxiv.org/abs/2509.06917
arxiv.org
Paper2Agent: Reimagining Research Papers As Interactive and Reliable AI Agents
We introduce Paper2Agent, an automated framework that converts research papers into AI agents. Paper2Agent transforms research output from passive artifacts into active systems that can accelerate dow...
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Seeing a lot of pedantic hang-up on the phrasing of "AI could kill all humans". Yes full-on extinction is unlikely for a number of reasons, but there's a wide range of possibilities between 0 and 7 billion deaths that would still be very bad indeed
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Michael Marks @drmichaelmarks.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Come & join our group. Modelling post @lshtm.bsky.social working on STI transmission & new interventions in the UK. Working closely with @ukhsa.bsky.social Applications close 17th September. @adamjkucharski.bsky.social @rozeggo.bsky.social @bquilty.bsky.social @grahammedley.bsky.social
jobs.lshtm.ac.uk
Job Opportunity at LSHTM: Research Fellow
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) is one of the world’s leading public health universities. Our mission is to improve health and health equity in the UK and worldwide; working i...
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Both the state and the free market have comprehensively failed on the availability of eclipse glasses. Where are they? It's not like we haven't known this was going to happen for hundreds - if not thousands - of years.
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Why haven't we seen a sci-fi movie on AI called "Alignment" yet? Nolan, you can have that one for free.
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Reposted by Billy Quilty
LSHTM Vaccine Centre @lshtm-vaccines.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
💉 Vaccines against Pneumococcal disease are expensive to provide long-term where they're needed most. 🆕 long-term @lshtm.bsky.social research confirms that two-doses of PCVs are as effective as three, helping countries address the vaccine "funding gap" & continue to save lives. 👉 bit.ly/4v6CwLj
Billy Quilty: A reduced two-dose schedule sustains protection for children and their caregivers, ensuring the future financial sustainability of vital immunisation programmes.
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Reposted by Billy Quilty
Ian M. Mackay, PhD (he/him) 🦠🤧🧬📑🦟🧀 @mackayim.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Some past published examples of incubation periods (IP) of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) cases. Note that the extremes of 6+ weeks (42+ days) are the exception, not the rule.
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Epiverse TRACE @epiverse-trace.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
1/5 🌍 Real-world outbreak analytics training, now open for July 2026 · 55 participants last cohort · 31 countries 🗓️ Tue & Wed AM/PM sessions 💰 50% off for LMIC applicants (deadline 6 Jun) ❓ Got questions? We're hosting a drop-in Q&A next Tuesday — details below 👇
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Thomas House @tah-sci.com · 17/05/2026
When there's a new outbreak, yes there's always the possibility of a major pandemic and that puts some weight on the need for a fast, cooperative and effective public health response but really the immediate, foreseeable consequences of the outbreak should be the focus and are reason enough to act.
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
A key question now is whether this is part of the initial cluster likely spawned by the index case, or potentially a third generation case. Based on what's known about the incubation period/serial interval, I estimate that there is a 74% chance that this a third gen case: github.com/bquilty25/ho...
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
It would be beneficial if prominent public health voices could avoid solely framing outbreak risks through the lens of whether they should be something for people in high-income countries to "worry about" or not.
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PLOS Medicine @plosmedicine.org · 13/05/2026
How have social contact patterns changed since the #COVID-19 pandemic? In this cross-sectional survey, Lucy Goodfellow & colleagues collect information on social contacts of over 13,000 people in the UK post-pandemic, including social mixing by ethnic & socioeconomic groups🧪 #MedSky plos.io/4nmJyck
plos.io
Social contact patterns in the United Kingdom following the COVID-19 pandemic: The Reconnect cross-sectional survey
In a cross-sectional survey, Lucy Goodfellow and colleagues collect information from over 13,000 people on demographics and their social contacts after the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.
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Reposted by Billy Quilty
PLOS Medicine @plosmedicine.org · 14/05/2026
This Perspective by Joël Mossong discusses findings from the Reconnect study, highlighting the importance of understanding social contacts & how they have evolved for infectious disease modeling, & the need to consider ethnic & socioeconomic backgrounds🧪 #MedSky #COVID-19 plos.io/42CQPLI
plos.io
On the evolution of the company we keep: Implications for infectious disease modeling
In this Perspective, Joël Mossong discusses the importance of understanding social contacts and how they have evolved for infectious disease modeling, and the need to factor in additional consideratio...
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
A great Perspective piece from @joelmossong.bsky.social on the evolution of social contact surveys, from the POLYMOD study he led in 2008 (which became the template for all others), to CoMix during the pandemic, and now on to Reconnect: journals.plos.org/plosmedicine...
journals.plos.org
On the evolution of the company we keep: Implications for infectious disease modeling
In this Perspective, Joël Mossong discusses the importance of understanding social contacts and how they have evolved for infectious disease modeling, and the need to factor in additional consideratio...
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
How have UK social contact patterns changed post-pandemic? How assortative are they by age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status? Pleased to share our new @plosmedicine.org paper, jointly led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and myself, with @kevinvzandvoort.bsky.social and John Edmunds. #IDSky
Seven heatmaps displaying social contact matrices, stratified by age, setting, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Colour gradients indicate the mean number of contacts, with lighter yellows and greens representing higher values and dark purples representing lower values.

Panel A shows total contacts by participant and contact age group, highlighting strong mixing between similar ages along the diagonal, and secondary parallel bands representing parent-child interactions.

Panels B through E break down these age contacts by setting. Home displays distinct family and intergenerational patterns, Work shows mixing primarily among working-age adults, School shows highly intense mixing restricted to school-age children, and Other settings display general age assortativity.

Panel F illustrates total contacts by ethnic group. It reveals strong assortative mixing, with the highest mean contact numbers occurring between individuals of the same ethnicity, specifically within White, Black, and Asian demographic groups.

Panel G displays total contacts by NS-SEC socioeconomic classification and life stage. This matrix demonstrates assortative mixing within similar occupational classes, alongside a notably high concentration of contacts among participants and contacts classified as under 17.
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
The current online dichotomy between "it's the next pandemic, panic" and "it's not, nothing to worry about" hides a wide spectrum of possible intermediate trajectories that would still present a real challenge if they played out.
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Michael Marks @drmichaelmarks.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
It is
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Big missed opportunity if this isn't happening
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
talkie-lm.com/chat
talkie-lm.com
talkie: an LM from 1930
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Reposted by Billy Quilty
Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Not a fan of public health influencers promoting their outbreak 'scoops' and 'exclusives' very shortly before the official announcement would have been made anyway. Leaking fragments and out-of-context snippets of routine reports aren't doing anyone a public service.
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Thomas House @tah-sci.com · 08/05/2026
A useful concept in outbreaks is the "reasonable worst case", which is not the worst that can happen but is significantly worse than the current trajectory. The current trajectory is that this is a very distressing situation for those involved that we can take meaningful steps to avoid in future. >
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Karl Pettersson @karlpettersson.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
The “husband” (deceased, but red instead of black, as in the legend) seems to consist of two people.
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
⚠️ Retweeting this only to say: ⚠️ This infographic in this blog post is being shared widely, falsely attributed to WHO - it is AI slop of the highest degree, and contains wrong, unevidenced and nonsensical information, and should not be shared further. Check your sources people.
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Reposted by Billy Quilty
NPR @npr.org · 07/05/2026
The dozens of passengers, including the wife of a Dutch man who died, left the cruise ship during a stop at the British territory, the Dutch foreign ministry said on Thursday. n.pr/3QRhnq0
n.pr
About 40 passengers previously left ship hit by Hantavirus at island of St. Helena
The dozens of passengers, including the wife of a Dutch man who died, left the cruise ship during a stop at the British territory, the Dutch foreign ministry said on Thursday.
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
This is woefully inadequate. This has no effect on my monthly repayments, which are currently over 500 Euros a month (Plan 2 plus Postgrad). That's money going to service a loan that will never get repaid, rather than saving for a house or retirement.
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Reposted by Billy Quilty
Christopher Mims @mims.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
AIs can’t stop recommending nuclear strikes in war game simulations Leading AIs from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google opted to use nuclear weapons in simulated war games in 95 per cent of cases www.newscientist.com/article/2516...
newscientist.com
AIs can’t stop recommending nuclear strikes in war game simulations
Leading AIs from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google opted to use nuclear weapons in simulated war games in 95 per cent of cases
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
It's hard to see it going any other way at this point. I expect there will be a moment soon like in March 2020 when even the Tories realised that we would need to intervene drastically in the economy (with furlough) or there would be complete meltdown. www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
theguardian.com
‘A feedback loop with no brake’: how an AI doomsday report shook US markets
Shares in Uber, Mastercard and American Express fall on back of apocalypse scenario posted on Substack
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Prem Sikka @premnsikka.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Education Secretary defends freezing the repayment threshold for student loans in England. Ridiculous plan to align repayment threshold with minimum wage. Graduates pay tax+repayment at marginal rate of 37%, higher than capital gains tax rate for the super rich. Abolish uni fees. Write-off debt.
bbc.co.uk
Student loans: Phillipson says freeze will cost average graduate £8 a month
Some graduates in England say
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Whether or not interest is capped at RPI, or thresholds are unfrozen, middle earning graduates will continue to be squeezed the most while the richest pay less.
 4-panel line chart titled "The Student Loan Trap: Whether or not interest is capped at inflation, or thresholds are indexed to inflation, middle earners are squeezed the hardest."

The charts map total lifetime repayment (Y-axis, £0 to £120k) against starting graduate salary (X-axis, £25k to £150k) for a £50k Plan 2 loan over 30 years.

Top Left: "Current policy: Frozen threshold, Sliding interest up to RPI+3%." Total repayments peak steeply at nearly £120k for salaries around £70k before dropping for higher earners. Lower and middle earners pay significantly more than the original loan. Top Right: "Indexed threshold." The peak shifts right to £80k salaries, maxing near £90k. Bottom Left: "Frozen threshold, Flat interest (RPI only)." Peak drops to £80k for £55k earners. Bottom Right: "Indexed threshold, Flat interest." The flattest curve, peaking near £70k for £70k earners.

All panels show a large orange area representing unpaid debt written off after 30 years, and a green area indicating fully repaid loans for higher earners. Middle-income earners consistently hit the highest peak of total lifetime repayments in all four scenarios.
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Isaac Bogoch @isaacbogoch.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Step 1: Insert bacteria ("Wolbachia") into mosquitoes. Step 2: Release mosquitoes. Step 3: Watch Dengue rates plummet. Phenomenal results from Singapore. Link: tinyurl.com/59c9t67u, by Lim et al.
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
It’s a mistake to dismiss AI as just slop, or a bubble that will pop and fade away - it will likely be revolutionary, but we're on a dark path leaving its future entirely in the hands of private corporations with zero regulation. AI needs to be regulated and the benefits democratised ASAP.
theguardian.com
AI poses unprecedented threats. Congress must act now | Bernie Sanders
Despite the speed at which it is progressing, AI is getting far too little discussion in Congress, the media and within the general population. That has got to change
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Wow. www.reddit.com/r/singularit...
reddit.com
From the singularity community on Reddit: Genie 3 turns Veo 3 generated drone shot into an interactive world you can take control mid-flight
Explore this post and more from the singularity community
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
I'm taking part in this webinar on Friday to discuss my experience in #SciComm as an ECR during the Covid-19 pandemic - should be a really interesting conversation! Sign up below:
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
For better or worse (and there's lots of arguments for both) the genie is out of the bottle - it's here to stay, and that means we should be trying to maximise it's usefulness to society, and at the same time, trying to minimise harms. This is just wishing it away.
theguardian.com
‘Nobody wants a robot to read them a story!’ The creatives and academics rejecting AI – at work and at home
Is artificial intelligence coming for everyone’s jobs? Not if this lot have anything to do with it
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Great to see @christophraser.bsky.social discuss daily contact testing as a way of reducing quarantine burden at the UK Covid Inquiry. However, it is disappointing this is the only mention of this policy in the entire 12 days of the Test, Trace, and Isolate Module.
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Now to make the most mid latte art of all time 🤩
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Just a few days left to apply for a PhD integrating behavioural data in infectious disease modelling using AI at Charité Berlin with me and Prof Stefan Flasche. Deadline 6th April!
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
In Britain, we pride ourselves on authenticity, tradition, and cultural heritage. *sips pint of Madri*
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
My two pence on lockdowns/NPIs is that for high R resp. pathogens we should really talk about effectiveness in terms of capacity to delay, rather than prevent. So the question is then: what reduces R but also carries lowest societal costs so it can be maintained until we get vaccines/antivirals out?
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Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
Do we worry too much about misinformation? I've got a piece in today's Guardian about aliens, vaccines and social media - and the dual risks of believing falsehoods and ignoring truth: www.theguardian.com/books/2025/m...
theguardian.com
The big idea: do we worry too much about misinformation?
Seeing falsehoods everywhere is as damaging as believing too much. Our focus should be on helping people interpret information better
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Simon Willison @simonwillison.net · 11/03/2025
Here's the table of contents for my lengthy new piece on how I use LLMs to help me write code simonwillison.net/2025/Mar/11/...
If someone tells you that coding with LLMs is easy they are (probably unintentionally) misleading you. They may well have stumbled on to patterns that work, but those patterns do not come naturally to everyone.

I’ve been getting great results out of LLMs for code for over two years now. Here’s my attempt at transferring some of that experience and intution to you.

Set reasonable expectations
Account for training cut-off dates
Context is king
Ask them for options
Tell them exactly what to do
You have to test what it writes!
Remember it’s a conversation
Use tools that can run the code for you
Vibe-coding is a great way to learn
A detailed example
Be ready for the human to take over
The biggest advantage is speed of development
LLMs amplify existing expertise
Bonus: answering questions about codebases
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
This photo in @theguardian.com looks like a screenshot from an isometric strategy video game:
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Interested in pursing a PhD in infectious disease dynamics, artificial intelligence, and behavioural science? Come and join myself and Professor Stefan Flasche at the Charité Center for Global Health in Berlin: karriere.charite.de/en/job-vacan...
karriere.charite.de
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Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
When an epidemic hits, how long does it take to get going with common epidemic analysis tasks? A couple of weeks ago, we asked representatives from over a dozen UK organisations and universities who work actively on epidemic analysis and modelling how long the below tasks would take them.... 1/
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
What wall?
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Billy Quilty @bquilty.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
Can't vote but #FUKAFD and #FUKNZS! #BTW2025
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Alessandro Vespignani @alexvespi.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Wastewater from airplane toilets? We introduce a global Aircraft-Based Wastewater Surveillance Network (WWSN) for pandemic monitoring in Nature Medicine 🔗 doi.org/10.1038/s415... Aircraft-based wastewater surveillance allows for real-time, non-invasive monitoring of global pathogen spread Short 🧵
doi.org
Pandemic monitoring with global aircraft-based wastewater surveillance networks - Nature Medicine
By simulating the implementation of airport-based wastewater surveillance sites at the global level, a modeling study shows how this early warning system would perform in identifying sources of pandem...
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