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TROPICS UPDATE: A minority of long-range computer models indicates that a tropical depression or storm could eventually form from a stalled front in the Gulf. Something to watch. Otherwise, SoCal will watch for dangerous beach conditions next week from Hurricane Rachael. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 01/10/2026

LIVE PODCAST TODAY AT 4:00 PM ET. Join me this afternoon along with Google DeepMind research scientist @tom-andersson.bsky.social. We’ll talk about the success of the Google forecasts over the past two seasons, how the model works, and any questions you have. Watch on YouTube, Facebook, and more.

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 01/10/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: October begins with a blank slate in the Atlantic, but we'll watch the Gulf. Hurricane #Rachel is moving away from Mexico, but will send swells and extra humidity to Southern California early next week on top of the blazing heatwave. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 30/09/2026

LIVE PODCAST TOMORROW AT 4 PM ET: Join me and Google Research Scientist @Tom-Andersson.bsky.social. We'll talk about the Google DeepMind models that have been so successful this year and last forecasting tropical storms & hurricanes, plus wherever is on your mind. LIVE on YouTube, Facebook, & more.

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 30/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: For the first time in a long time there are no active tropical systems or nor'easters that are an imminent threat. A storm is increasingly like to eventually form off Mexico, however. And in October, we'll be keeping a close eye on the southwestern Gulf. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 29/09/2026

SHOULD THE NOR'EASTER HAVE BEEN NAMED? It produced wind gusts to near hurricane strength and caused coastal damage over 100's of miles. My answer is no and yes. That plus Hurricane Polo will enhance a significant flood threat in the Southwest. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 28/09/2026

UPDATE: The last day of the Nor'easter. A decent chance of inconsequential #Hanna in the Atlantic. Polo to make landfall then bring flooding rain to the Southwest plus add to a storm over the central US this week. And #Nolo to reach Cat 5, but stay south of Hawaii. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 27/09/2026

UPDATE: #Nor'easter impacts continue thru early high-tide cycles today, but the storm will significantly diminish this afternoon so flood waters can begin to drain. #Nolo is moving away from Hawaii. #Polo will make landfall on Baja and bring flooding moisture to the SW. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 26/09/2026

ODDLY EARLY-SEASON NOR'EASTER is intensifying. The long duration storm will push water toward the Northeast coast through tomorrow. The locations experiencing flooding will change as the winds shift direction. #Nolo is bruising Hawaii. #Polo heading for Baja. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 25/09/2026

TROPICS AND NOR'EASTER UPDATE: The nor'easter is strengthening as it heads to a stall off the Jersey Shore. The impacts are not related to the center... they will be widespread. Nolo to bring dangerous rain to Hawaii. And Polo to impact Baja California. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 24/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The developing oddly out-of-season #nor'easter is the big news in the Atlantic. While Hawaii watches for another hurricane, which will be named #Nolo. And Baja California is on alert for impacts from Hurricane #Polo early next week. Lots more at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 24/09/2026

LIVE PODCAST TODAY!! Join me along with NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome LIVE on YouTube, Facebook, TikTok, X, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We'll answer your questions about what's going on in the tropics, this strange hurricane season, or whatever's on your mind. See you then!!

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 23/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Another potential hurricane threat to Hawaii. Fierce Hurricane #Polo threatens significant flooding in higher elevations near the Mexican coast. In the Atlantic, a long-duration, early-season nor'easter is forecast to impact the Northeast into next week. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 22/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: #Polo has exploded into a Cat 5 near Mexico. It's forecast to stay offshore, but heavy rain in the coastal mountains could be life-threatening. Watch for heavy rain spreading across the Big Island of Hawaii this week. And an area to watch off Africa. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 21/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: #Fay will die in the middle of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is once again alight with storms. #Polo is forecast to become a very strong hurricane. And a rejuvenated Tropical Depression #15E looks likely to bring significant rain to Hawaii. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 20/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Inconsequential Tropical Storm #Fay forms in the Atlantic. I won't affect land. The central Mexican Pacific coast will have to watch for a possible hurricane this week. And 100 years ago today, the Great Miami Hurricane ripped and ravaged Pensacola. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 18/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The Atlantic system we have been tracking was wiped out by hostile upper winds and dry air. And coastal Mexico has a system to watch. 100 years ago today, The Great Miami Hurricane devastated South Florida. The stories from that era and that day are epic. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 17/09/2026

LIVE PODCAST TODAY AT 4 PM ET: Join me along with Miami historian Dr. Paul George and University of Miami researcher Brian McNoldy talking about the Great Miami Hurricane, what it means for today, and this hurricane season. Taking your questions. Live on most social media. See you then!

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 17/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The Atlantic disturbance has a defined circulation, but upper winds are not allowing it to organize. There's a medium chance it will pull itself together. And 100 years ago tonight the Great Miami Hurricane arrived. It was a harrowing day for forecasters. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 16/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Still a chance that the Atlantic disturbance could develop. Odds are low and there's no apparent threat to land. And 100 years ago today the Great Miami Hurricane was coming the next night. Nobody knew because there was a weak tropical storm offshore. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 15/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: A non-tropical mid-Atlantic low is moving toward an area where the upper-level winds will give it a medium chance of becoming a tropical system. And 100 years ago today, Miami was mostly oblivious to the life-changing hurricane that was 3 days away. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 14/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: No big concerns but watching the Atlantic and Pacific to be sure. And 100 years ago today the US Weather Bureau first sent a notice to its Miami office that a disturbance had been "detected" northeast of St. Kitts. It was a Cat 2, but they didn't know it. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 13/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Finally something to look at in the Atlantic, but no threat expected. Pacific storms are forecast to die out before reaching Hawaii. And 100 years ago today the Atlantic was alight with systems. Although they didn't know which one was important at the time. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 12/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: In 2026, the tropics continue to be throttled in the Atlantic, and the E. Pacific looks nonthreatening for now. In 1926 in Miami, it was the last tranquil weekend for many to come. A hurricane was east of the Caribbean and a depression was in the Caribbean. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 11/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Since 1966, a hurricane has never failed to form by this date. In the less certain years before, however, there are lots of examples. This year, the Pacific continues making storms. And the epic countdown week for South Florida began 100 years ago today. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 10/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The more-or-less peak of the Atlantic hurricane season will come and go with nothing to say for itself. I'll discuss. Meanwhile the Eastern Pacific continues to be on fire as Tropical Storm #Norbert forms and will track in the general direction of Hawaii. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 09/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The Atlantic rests while the Eastern Pacific keeps cranking. Two more tropical systems look to develop over the next week. There's no indication of a threat to land though we'll keep an eye on eventual-Norbert as it heads in the general direction of Hawaii. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 08/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Hurricane #Lowell is moving away from Hawaii. A close look at the forecast track beginning Friday before Lowell made its slow turn to the north shows the steady shift closer to the islands. In the end, the track was down the right side of the Friday cone. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 07/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Hurricane #Lowell 's impacts peak late tonight on the western Hawaiian Islands. Parts of #Kauai will experience hurricane-force winds and flash flooding is possible. Rain will be heaviest on Kauai and the Big Island, but the whole state is on alert. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 06/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Hurricane #Lowell has turned to the north. There is reasonable confidence that the worst of the storm will miss the main Hawaiian Islands to the west, but strong winds and very heavy rain are likely on #Kauai with potential flash flooding on steep slopes. More at bryannorcross.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 05/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Hurricane #Lowell will slowly turn north this weekend. Reasonable confidence that the worst of the storm will just miss the islands. But not 100%. A new "damaging wind" graphic at Fox Weather based on Google DeepMind data shows how close. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 04/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The Atlantic is asleep with the peak of hurricane season approaching thanks to El Niño. Hawaii is watching what angle Hurricane #Lowell's track will take after it turns north this weekend. The odds favor a close miss of the worst weather, but stay informed. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 03/09/2026

LIVE HURRICANE Q&A TODAY: This afternoon at 4:00 PM ET I'll be talking with Willie Drye who wrote some of the best books around about the great South Florida hurricanes of the past. And I'll cover what's going on today. See you live on Facebook, YouTube, X, TikTok, and LinkedIn.

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 02/09/2026

TROPCS UPDATE: #Edouard is down to depression status because the winds have decreased, but now is the dangerous period. Extreme rainfall from slow-moving bands of tropical moisture are dumping rain at up to 5 inches per hour. Stay well informed in that area. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 01/09/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Tropical Storm #Edouard is nearing landfall near the TX/LA border. The system is strengthening, but how strong can it get in the next few hours is the question? The strong winds will only occur in a narrow band, but stay informed along the coast. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 31/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The disturbance just south of Louisiana - Invest #97L - is showing some signs of development. There is a flood threat from Metro Houston to SW Louisiana for tomorrow when the system, possibly as Tropical Storm Edouard, moves inland. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 30/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: A small low pressure system in the northern Gulf tagged Invest #97L could become at least a depression before it reaches the north TX or SW LA coast about Tuesday. And watching ex-Dolly for late next week. Development odds are currently all low. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 29/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: #Dolly no longer has a circulation, but it's still a robust system with gusty winds and heavy rain. Impact on the northeast Caribbean starts today. There is a very slight chance the system will redevelop, and a similar very slight chance in the Gulf. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 28/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: Tropical Storm #Dolly will fade out in the Atlantic, but its remnants will bring rain squalls with some gusty winds to the northeast Caribbean over then weekend and into next week. We'll watch for redevelopment in the Gulf, but the odds are very low. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 27/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: It's almost Hello #Dolly in the Atlantic. @NHC_Atlantic says advisories are likely today. But hostile conditions are ahead and it is likely to weaken before reaching the islands. Redevelopment chances in the Atlantic are low but not zero. More at hurricaneintel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 26/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The tropical disturbance tagged Invest #96L has a day or two to develop into a depression or maybe Tropical Storm Dolly before the environment gets totally hostile before it reaches the Caribbean. Does a piece survive into next week north of the islands? More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 25/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The disturbance near Africa tagged Invest #96L has a good chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next few days before hostile conditions take over. If it survives into the Atlantic north of the Caribbean next week, we'll have to watch it. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 24/08/2026

34 YEARS AGO TODAY: By 4:35 AM, #Andrew has begun it's all-out assault on Homestead, Key Biscayne, and the suburbs south of Miami. Insane and unforgettable things happened over the next 2 1/2 hours. A palm tree had been speared before, but there was much more. Reflections at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 24/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: A healthy disturbance has moved off Africa that the NHC is giving a medium chance of becoming at least a tropical depression as it tracks west. Computer forecasts get fuzzy next weekend when it's near of northeast of the Caribbean. We'll watch this week. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 23/08/2026

34 YEARS AGO TODAY, Andrew was bearing down on the Bahamas and South Florida. It was a beautiful summer day in Miami with a nice breeze. Everybody was in motion... wondering what was going to happen that night. I said on TV, "...nothing will look the same" in the morning. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 23/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: A robust disturbance will move off Africa tomorrow. The @NHC_Atlantic gives it a medium chance of developing. The consensus of the computer forecasts is that it will struggle this week and that it will miss the islands. But we'll watch to be sure. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 22/08/2026

34 YEARS AGO TODAY: Andrew became a 75-mph hurricane. Little did we know it would make landfall exactly 48 hours later as a Cat 5. The forecast kept shifting south that Saturday until it settled on South Dade County. Most of Greater Miami was just becoming aware. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 22/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: A disturbance coming off Africa on Monday will be a system to watch in the Atlantic next week. In the Pacific, Tropical Storm #Moke will bring unwanted heavy rain to the Big Island of Hawaii beginning late tonight. Plus more areas to watch in both oceans. More at HurricaneIntel.com

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Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 21/08/2026

TROPICS UPDATE: The depression southeast of Hawaii is forecast to become Tropical Storm #Moke and brush the islands to the south. Unfortunately , the moisture on the north side of the circulation could put heavy rain over the areas Lala devastated. And the rest of the tropics at HurricaneIntel.com

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