iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft. Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

We have updated the map to reflect the emerging situation in the Kursk salient, where recent Russian offensive have forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from large areas. The northern part of the salient has been abandoned, with Russians capturing Malaya Lokanaya. 1/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

The mild weather has led to ground conditions becoming soft. This greatly limits off-road traverse further complicating withdrawal. The Ukrainians will likely attempt to delay the Russian advance with rearguard battles to secure a large scale withdrawal from the salient. 6/6

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

The Russian advance on Wednesday and Thursday has likely denied the use of a Secondary Supply Route west of Kurilovka to the Ukrainians. Meanwhile the Main Supply Route from Sumy to Sudzha is under Russian drone surveillance making traverse extremely dangerous. 5/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

Currently the situation in the salient is extremely difficult. Ukrainian defense is currently being established around Kasachya Lochnaya and Sudzha. Multiple bridges in the area have been destroyed, leaving some Ukrainian defenders with rivers behind their backs. 4/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

Russian actions throughout the area of operations seem coordinated, further reinforcing the assessment that instead of reacting to a sudden Ukrainian withdrawal, the Russians have the initiative and are forcing the Ukrainians to react to their operations. 3/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

According to Russian sources the Ukrainians had rotated some units out of the salient earlier. It's possible that the Ukrainians were preparing for larger withdrawals. Recent Russian operations may have started as an pre-emptive attempt to disrupt any Ukrainian withdrawal. 2/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

Ukraine has carried out a series of counterattacks in several directions, especially southeast of Pokrovsk. They have entered Pishchane, but currently it's unclear if they have fully retaken the village. At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

After six months of combat in the Kursk salient, the Ukrainians launched another attack in the southeastern direction of Sudzha. The Ukrainians seemingly breached the first Russian defences, and an armored column managed to advance up to 5-7 kilometers deep towards Ulanok. 1/

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Pasi Paroinen @inkvisiit.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Even though the Russians were able to capture Velyka Novosilka and secure rest of Kurakhove, the overall pace of Russian advance continued to slow down during January. Russian armed forces were able to conquer 332 square kilometers of Ukraine and regain some 68 sq km in Kursk. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk. In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Our group did a dive into light infantry tactics. There has been much talk about human waves in Ukraine, and the narratives don't always reflect the realities. This thread aims to clarify a few things about this subject.

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

That's what we'll be elaborating on in the future!

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Light Infantry Attacks – A Thread Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"? Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters. 1/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Black Bird Group will be taking a further look at the North Korean attack tactics soon. As always our activity is made possible by Jenni and Antti Wihurin Rahasto and their generous grant. 17/17

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Nevertheless the term "human waves" conjures up imagery of reckless, suicidal assaults. What we see in Kursk aligns more with light infantry doctrine. The losses? Heavy, yes. But that's expected when light infantry attacks prepared positions. 16/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

The terrain also restricts infantry maneuver. However, we see a lack of supporting fires and other fire-support elements. It's unclear why North Koreans don't seem to receive upper-echelon artillery support, although drones seem to be hunting their organic mortars. 15/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Why does this matter? Reports of North Korean troops in Kursk often mention “human wave” tactics. This narrative oversimplifies what’s likely happening: They’re employing basic, scalable infantry drills. These are rooted in fire and movement, not mindless rushing. 14/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Although modern environment differs from the WW2 the infantry fundamentals haven't greatly changed. Western forces have rarely had to fight in a near-peer environment post-WW2, and have almost always had the superiority of fires and other supporting elements. 13/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Succesful or unsuccesful, infantry assaults have usually led to high casualties. Notable examples include Coles Charge at Carentan in 1944 and the Finnish assault at Äyräpää Church in 1940. Also pictured: Warfare History Network on the Battle of Best, Holland, September 1944 12/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Light infantry doesn’t operate in isolation. Success often depends on: Support from higher-echelon weapons (artillery, mortars, drones). Coordination with heavier forces (if available). But when resources are limited, light infantry must rely solely on organic weapons. 11/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Frontal assaults :These are a last resort, risky and bloody but sometimes necessary if: There’s no viable flanking route. Terrain is open Time is of the essence. Light infantry attacking prepared positions will likely take heavy losses—it’s the nature of the fight. 10/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Movement in the attack When advancing, infantry ideally uses cover and concealment to: Avoid being seen. Minimize casualties while closing the distance. Maneuver to the enemy's flank or weak point. But the terrain and situation don't always allow this. 9/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Suppressive fire can come from individual soldiers within the assaulting element or a base of fire section. The goal is to pin the enemy down, create openings, and exploit those opportunities. Without fire and movement, light infantry is just a vulnerable mass of soldiers. 8/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Fire & Movement explained: This is the bread and butter of infantry tactics, scaled from individuals to squads: While one element suppresses the enemy (fire), another advances (movement). “I’m up, they see me, I’m down” – the mantra of infantry advancing under fire. 7/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

How does light infantry operate? Despite technological advancements, basic infantry tactics have changed little since the World Wars. Units operate in fireteams, squads, platoons, and companies. Core principles: Fire and movement. 6/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

For states with limited resources or for operations where vehicles can't maneuver easily (dense forests, mountains, urban areas), light infantry remains the go-to force. Its flexibility comes at a cost: higher casualties, especially in frontal assaults. 5/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Why is light infantry relevant? Post-Cold War world Western forces are mechanized, but light infantry remains because: It’s cheap. Has a smaller logistical footprint (easier to feed/supply). Can be rapidly deployed. Offers superior tactical mobility in rough terrain. 4/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

To put it in perspective: Most WWII infantry would be classified as “light” today. No armored vehicles, minimal mechanization, and reliant on basic infantry tactics. Modern light infantry is generally built for flexibility, not brute force, at least in the west. 3/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

What is light infantry? At its core, light infantry are troops that: Operate on foot in combat. Have little to no support from vehicles. Move organic support (mortars, MGs) on foot or trucks. Rely primarily on infantry weapons to fight. Pictured: Finnish Jäger Company 2/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too. Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea. These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/

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John Helin @jjhelin.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk. In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat. A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

It seems that the Ukrainian defenders in Hannivka may be encircled, as Russians pushed deeper into Uspenivka. Based on geolocated footage and both Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, a Ukrainian detachment of unknown size has been cut off from the rest of the troops. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/

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Eerik Matero @eerikmatero.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Decided to visualize the range that of both ATACMS and SCALP/Storm Shadow could theoretically have inside of Russia. The darker blue line is the range of ATACMS and the lighter blue is the range of SCALP/Storm Shadow. ATACMS has been limited to be used only within Kursk oblast.

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Around 1% from my X followers have found me here. Nice! I hope we can continue our conversations about Ukraine and other security & defence topics. I don't know if the algorithm prefers images with the posts, but here's a photo I took of the largest crater I've seen. Dovhenke, Kharkiv oblast, 2024.

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Russia is advancing relatively quickly, but it’s also spending significant amounts of men and material in the process. In this thread I’ll take a look on two important directions: Kurakhove and the concerning developments there, and the politically motivated Kursk counteroffensive. 1/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

You can also find and follow our analysts from the following links: bsky.app/profile/emil... bsky.app/profile/jhel... bsky.app/profile/inkv... bsky.app/profile/eeri...

bsky.app

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

We have noticed a trend of OSINT and Ukraine experts expanding their presence here in Bluesky over the past week. In order to continue our work around Russias invasion of Ukraine, we have also decided to establish a presence here. You can find our map at: www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Th...

scribblemaps.com

The War in Ukraine

Map depicting the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as analysed by Black Bird Group

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