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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

Ukraine may be repeating a costly mistake in Pokrovsk. It’s a recurring pattern, seen for example in Vuhledar and Kursk – a reluctance to conduct a controlled, militarily justified withdrawal from a threatened salient when the situation no longer favors the defender. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft. Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 01/06/2025

The Russian MoD has now also confirmed the Ukrainian strikes. However, they claim that the Ukrainians only succeeded in Olenya and Belaya - they say strikes in Ivanovo, Ryazan (Dyagilevo) and Amur were repelled. They didn't specify the amount or types of aircraft lost. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 01/06/2025

Ukraine has struck multiple strategic bombers in Olenya, Murmansk oblast, 1800 km from Ukraine. This is one of the most successful drone strikes against against Russian air bases in the entire war. The extent of the damage is yet unclear, but I can already say it's significant. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

During April and May, the Russians formed a dangerous salient against the Ukrainian defenses between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk. The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and the situation can develop into a serious issue in the near future. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

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Tyyne Karjalainen @tyynekarjalainen.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

A-studiossa @katri.bsky.social ja @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social kanssa. Omat pointit: varauduttava riskeihin aselevon aikana. Tuettava Ukrainaa neuvotteluissa, joista se ei voi kieltäytyä. Katri viisaasti muistutti että näitä neuvotteluita on useita ja tiedämme niistä vähän. areena.yle.fi/1-72480970

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

"As long as Russia has military personnel, Finland will need anti-personnel mines." Today it was announced that Finland will withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which banned anti-personnel mines. Finland will also increase defence spending to 3% of its GDP by 2029.

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

In the Russian-Ukrainian border region, both parties have continued offensive operations since the Ukrainian defense in Kursk collapsed. While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/

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Tatarigami @tatarigami.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

Our team at Frontelligence Insight, in cooperation with RFEL, has released the most comprehensive report on long-range strikes inside Russia, covering nearly 6 months. After months of analysis, the report was a major success. We ask for your support to keep independent analysis alive

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 01/03/2025

Europe must prepare for the worst-case scenario, where the security architecture of the whole continent will be reshaped. It's still too early to say what exactly will be affected by yesterday's diplomatic disaster and how quickly, but the damage is likely very significant. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

Ukraine has been fighting for three years in increasingly difficult conditions. Today, the Nordic and Baltic countries announced that they will “pledge to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit”. It’s a textbook example of too little, too late. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

Ukraine has carried out a series of counterattacks in several directions, especially southeast of Pokrovsk. They have entered Pishchane, but currently it's unclear if they have fully retaken the village. At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

After six months of combat in the Kursk salient, the Ukrainians launched another attack in the southeastern direction of Sudzha. The Ukrainians seemingly breached the first Russian defences, and an armored column managed to advance up to 5-7 kilometers deep towards Ulanok. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

In January 2025, Russia captured the least Ukrainian land since August 2024. The gains peaked in November, but in December-January Russians have taken significantly less ground. Our @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social analyst Pasi Paroinen goes through the latest observations regarding this development.

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk. In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Our group did a dive into light infantry tactics. There has been much talk about human waves in Ukraine, and the narratives don't always reflect the realities. This thread aims to clarify a few things about this subject.

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

After the fall of Neskuchne, Ukraine has now lost all the villages it captured south of Velyka Novosilka in the 2023. This was the most successful direction of the mostly failed summer offensive. Velyka Novosilka itself is under encirclement threat, and the logistics can get very difficult soon.

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Olli Rajala @ragolsec.com · 05/01/2025

@emilkastehelmi.bsky.social sanoitti aika hyvin tuon tilanteen tällä hetkellä. Jos länsi ei auta Ukrainaa voittamaan, se tarkoittaa, että lännessä hyväksytään Venäjän toiminta. Hyväksytään, että Euroopassa voidaan rajoja siirtää sotimalla. Hyväksytään, ettei sotarikoksista seuraa mitään.

youtube.com

Ukrainan tilannekatsaus - Rintamatilanne, miespula ja lännen interventio? Emil Kastehelmi

YouTube video by Mighty Finland

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too. Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea. These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/

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John Helin @jjhelin.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk. In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat. A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

It has been claimed that this is a video of North Korean infantry attacking in Kursk. A few of points: Firstly, this isn't a human wave assault, as there's no fighting. Around 40 soldiers can be counted, which means it's likely a platoon on the move through an open field. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

It seems that the Ukrainian defenders in Hannivka may be encircled, as Russians pushed deeper into Uspenivka. Based on geolocated footage and both Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, a Ukrainian detachment of unknown size has been cut off from the rest of the troops. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/

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Keke 🇫🇮🇺🇦 NAFO Space Force Fella @kasiainen.bsky.social · 30/11/2024

Good text from @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social : in Finland, we must not be naive and stick with the Ottawa treaty that prohibits anti-personnel mines. russians just laugh at us and we may pay it with our own blood. Unfortunately in Finnish only, a translator may help. www.iltalehti.fi/kotimaa/a/31...

iltalehti.fi

Kommentti: Suomen ei pidä olla liian naiivi: Venäjä kylvisi miinoja surutta ja nauraisi päälle

Moraaliset hyveet eivät pelasta suomalaissotilaiden henkiä, ja raadollinen realismi olisi hyvä pitää mukana jalkaväkimiinoista puhuttaessa, kirjoittaa Iltalehden sota-asiantuntija Emil Kastehelmi.

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Around 1% from my X followers have found me here. Nice! I hope we can continue our conversations about Ukraine and other security & defence topics. I don't know if the algorithm prefers images with the posts, but here's a photo I took of the largest crater I've seen. Dovhenke, Kharkiv oblast, 2024.

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Russia is advancing relatively quickly, but it’s also spending significant amounts of men and material in the process. In this thread I’ll take a look on two important directions: Kurakhove and the concerning developments there, and the politically motivated Kursk counteroffensive. 1/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

We have noticed a trend of OSINT and Ukraine experts expanding their presence here in Bluesky over the past week. In order to continue our work around Russias invasion of Ukraine, we have also decided to establish a presence here. You can find our map at: www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Th...

scribblemaps.com

The War in Ukraine

Map depicting the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as analysed by Black Bird Group

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Black Birds are flying to BlueSky. As many good analysts, experts and journalists have moved to BlueSky, we at Black Bird Group decided to establish a presence here. We'll continue to post on X too, but from now on you can find my threads here also.

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