iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft. Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

We have updated the map to reflect the emerging situation in the Kursk salient, where recent Russian offensive have forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from large areas. The northern part of the salient has been abandoned, with Russians capturing Malaya Lokanaya. 1/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 09/03/2025

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 10/02/2025

Ukraine has carried out a series of counterattacks in several directions, especially southeast of Pokrovsk. They have entered Pishchane, but currently it's unclear if they have fully retaken the village. At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

After six months of combat in the Kursk salient, the Ukrainians launched another attack in the southeastern direction of Sudzha. The Ukrainians seemingly breached the first Russian defences, and an armored column managed to advance up to 5-7 kilometers deep towards Ulanok. 1/

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Pasi Paroinen @inkvisiit.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Even though the Russians were able to capture Velyka Novosilka and secure rest of Kurakhove, the overall pace of Russian advance continued to slow down during January. Russian armed forces were able to conquer 332 square kilometers of Ukraine and regain some 68 sq km in Kursk. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk. In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Our group did a dive into light infantry tactics. There has been much talk about human waves in Ukraine, and the narratives don't always reflect the realities. This thread aims to clarify a few things about this subject.

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Light Infantry Attacks – A Thread Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"? Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters. 1/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too. Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 29/12/2024

During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea. These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/

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John Helin @jjhelin.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk. In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat. A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

It seems that the Ukrainian defenders in Hannivka may be encircled, as Russians pushed deeper into Uspenivka. Based on geolocated footage and both Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, a Ukrainian detachment of unknown size has been cut off from the rest of the troops. 1/

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/

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Eerik Matero @eerikmatero.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Decided to visualize the range that of both ATACMS and SCALP/Storm Shadow could theoretically have inside of Russia. The darker blue line is the range of ATACMS and the lighter blue is the range of SCALP/Storm Shadow. ATACMS has been limited to be used only within Kursk oblast.

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Around 1% from my X followers have found me here. Nice! I hope we can continue our conversations about Ukraine and other security & defence topics. I don't know if the algorithm prefers images with the posts, but here's a photo I took of the largest crater I've seen. Dovhenke, Kharkiv oblast, 2024.

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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Russia is advancing relatively quickly, but it’s also spending significant amounts of men and material in the process. In this thread I’ll take a look on two important directions: Kurakhove and the concerning developments there, and the politically motivated Kursk counteroffensive. 1/

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Black Bird Group @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

We have noticed a trend of OSINT and Ukraine experts expanding their presence here in Bluesky over the past week. In order to continue our work around Russias invasion of Ukraine, we have also decided to establish a presence here. You can find our map at: www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Th...

scribblemaps.com

The War in Ukraine

Map depicting the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as analysed by Black Bird Group

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