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Timothy B. Lee

@binarybits.bsky.social
3.7K followers 290 following 280 posts

Reporting on AI and the future of the economy. Computer science masters degree from Princeton. Subscribe to my AI newsletter: www.understandingai.org

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Reposted by Timothy B. Lee
NonZero @nonzeronews.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Is the AI Takeoff Starting? | Timothy B. Lee (@binarybits.bsky.social), author of the Understanding AI newsletter and host of the AI Summer podcast, joins @robertwrighter.bsky.social to discuss whether AI is a “normal technology” or something much, much more.
youtu.be
Is the AI Takeoff Starting? | Robert Wright & Timothy B. Lee
YouTube video by Nonzero
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Robert Wright @robertwrighter.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Really enjoyed this conversation with @binarybits.bsky.social.
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Kyle Serikawa @kyleserikawa.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
This piece ( open.substack.com/pub/understa...) by @binarybits.bsky.social made me think of something kind of similar @doctorow.pluralistic.net shared a little while ago about process knowledge. pluralistic.net/2026/04/08/p.... Both asking about knowledge that's less articulated but still valuable.
open.substack.com
I don’t think we are close to “AI scientists”
Today's AI agents are not designed to extract deep insights from new observations.
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Reposted by Timothy B. Lee
Alan Rozenshtein @alanrozenshtein.com · 06/03/2026
Banger of a crossover episode today between @scaling_laws and "AI Summer" with @deanwb.bsky.social and @binarybits.bsky.social on the Anthropic/OpenAI/Pentagon situation (note that we recorded this on Wed. before DOD designated Anthropic a supply chain risk). podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
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Reposted by Timothy B. Lee
Tim Duffy @timfduffy.com · 22/07/2025
I'm a fan of this @binarybits.bsky.social piece that points out the incredibly simple and dumb error made by shadowstats. There's definitely some wiggle room for how you calculate inflation but you can't be significantly biased in the long term without it being obvious.
fullstackeconomics.com
No, the real inflation rate isn’t 15 percent
Jordan Peterson and Jack Dorsey are touting a bogus theory about the inflation rate.
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Stephan Geering @stephangeering.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Great @binarybits.bsky.social piece with overview of and background of White House AI Action Plan www.understandingai.org/p/donald-tru...
understandingai.org
Donald Trump just laid out his vision for AI policy
The president wants to help American AI companies compete with their Chinese rivals.
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
The American Time Use Survey came out recently, giving the most detailed look at how the country spends its days, so here's a quick thread 1st, the share of Americans reading for personal interest on an average day has fallen to the lowest level on record, down 10% from 2003🧵
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Satadru Pramanik @satmandu.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
This is an excellent explainer by @binarybits.bsky.social . arstechnica.com/ai/2025/07/h...
arstechnica.com
How a big shift in training LLMs led to a capability explosion
Reinforcement learning, explained with a minimum of math and jargon.
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NonZero @nonzeronews.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
The Truth about Sam Altman | @robertwrighter.bsky.social and Timothy B. Lee (@binarybits.bsky.social), author of the Understanding AI newsletter, discuss what two new biographies reveal about the OpenAI CEO.
youtu.be
The Truth about Sam Altman | Robert Wright & Timothy B. Lee
YouTube video by Nonzero
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Tom Lee @tjl.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Fantastic @binarybits.bsky.social writeup of the Alsup ruling in Anthropic’s case open.substack.com/pub/understa... But aside from AI training, yet another reminder of the power of analog media. This excerpt is tragic: Alsup’s right about books. But this is exactly how the digital economy works.
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
No urbanist has successfully kept more vehicles off the road than radical degrowth war-on-cars advocate Donald J Trump
A graph showing a massive drop in US car imports as Donald Trump imposes tariffs on US motor vehicles
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Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
Apropos of nothing I feel like one of the most important things to help your kids develop is an ability to self-regulate.
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
Hey @niedermeyer.online is this going to mean no more Tesla takedown protests? Or are they going to become pro-Elon rallies?
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
Groceries stores are famous for their fat profit margins.
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Tim Duffy @timfduffy.com · 26/03/2025
Great article on Waymo safety by @binarybits.bsky.social, who has IMO the best reporting on self-driving cars out there
understandingai.org
Waymo has had dozens of crashes—almost all were a human driver's fault
Human drivers keep crashing into Waymos that aren't even moving.
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Dan Keshet @dankeshet.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Interesting look at the emergency safety regulations that may hamper rollout of the promised Dallas to Houston automated trucking trial from @binarybits.bsky.social.
open.substack.com
Driverless trucks are coming and unions aren’t happy about it
Will Trump side with driverless trucking startups or the labor movement?
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
My brother is hiring!
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Benjamin Riley @benjaminjriley.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
@binarybits.bsky.social is doubtful that scaling up so-called reasoning AI models will "achieve human-level intelligence" given this "probably has more than two dimensions, and mastering all of them will probably require a few more conceptual breakthroughs." open.substack.com/pub/understa...
open.substack.com
OpenAI just released GPT-5—it just didn’t call it that
OpenAI's GPT-4.5 demonstrates the power and limits of pretrained models.
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Kevin Markham @dataschool.io · 04/03/2025
19 professionals (in a variety of fields) evaluated OpenAI's Deep Research vs Google's Deep Research. OpenAI was the clear winner 🏆 Neat study by @binarybits.bsky.social, read more here: www.understandingai.org/p/these-expe...
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Andrew Lee @startupandrew.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
I was a guest on the AI Summer podcast the other day. I go into some detail about how the Shortwave AI agent works today, how we got here, and what's next. Check it out: www.aisummer.org/p/andrew-lee... Thanks @binarybits.bsky.social and Dean Ball for hosting me!
aisummer.org
Andrew Lee on running an AI email startup
Tim's brother goes deep on the practicalities of building on top of fast-changing AI models.
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Brendon Slotterback @bslotterback.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
The Understanding AI newsletter from @binarybits.bsky.social really helps you to, well, understand AI. You should read it. www.understandingai.org/p/these-expe...
understandingai.org
These pros were stunned by OpenAI Deep Research
"I would use this model professionally," an antitrust lawyer told me.
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e.w. niedermeyer @niedermeyer.online · 17/02/2025
This is what Elon does: he takes something someone else is already doing, does it more sloppily/dangerously, and slaps his own brand on it so everyone forgets anything else exists (if they ever knew). You can't cede his rebranding without a fight, or you're toast. Explain that GAO already does this!
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Kevin Markham @dataschool.io · 30/01/2025
Want to keep up with the latest developments in AI? Check out the 7 newsletters I personally read & recommend for AI news, insights, and analysis: 👉 www.dataschool.io/best-ai-news... 👈 Includes: @simonwillison.net @emollick.bsky.social @sebastianraschka.com @binarybits.bsky.social
dataschool.io
How to keep up with AI in 2025 🏃‍♂️
These 7 AI experts will guide you through the most important developments in Artificial Intelligence.
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Stephan Geering @stephangeering.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Interesting theory and excellent DeepSeek explainer by @binarybits.bsky.social www.understandingai.org/p/i-dont-bel...
understandingai.org
I don’t believe DeepSeek crashed Nvidia’s stock
But let’s talk about DeepSeek anyway.
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
Excited to launch a new podcast with @deanwb.bsky.social about AI. It's called AI summer, and can be found on all major podcast apps. The first episode is an interview with political scientist @jonaskonas.bsky.social about AI policy in the Trump era. www.aisummer.org/p/jon-askona...
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Adam Kinzinger @adamkinzinger.substack.com · 10/01/2025
If TiKTok wasn’t a benefit for Chinese intel, they would sell. They could make a killing. But it’s not about the money
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Nobody knew the federal budget could be so complicated.
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Neal Parikh @nparikh.org · 08/01/2025
Here are some interesting opportunities to collaborate with the excellent @binarybits.bsky.social on his newsletter, Understanding AI, if you or someone you know are interested in serious AI journalism. If not, I still recommend his newsletter. www.understandingai.org/p/two-opport...
understandingai.org
Two opportunities to work with me in 2025
You could get paid to write for Understanding AI for nine months.
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
I’m not sure what industry “four trending stories daily” is the standard for, but it’s definitely not journalism.
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Molly White @molly.wiki · 08/01/2025
Donating to the Wikimedia Foundation is great. Becoming a volunteer editor is even better. youtu.be/bRRHR1NEOqE
youtu.be
Become a Wikipedian in 30 minutes
YouTube video by Molly White
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
She’s mangling history here. Truman was actually Secretary of State (he would later become vice president and then president upon the assassination of James Garfield in 1881). The idea was so unpopular (it was called “Truman’s folly”) that president Monroe had to drop the idea.
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Tfw the book is so tedious you bump it up to 2.5x.
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Elections have consequences.
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Spirit Bear Fran @fran.spiritbeardreaming.com · 05/01/2025
Just retired & looking back writing code is the least of it. Good abstractions/design, mentoring, writing *useful* docs, debugging large distributed multi-threaded code in different containers/platforms, negotiating with both tech and non-tech teams, customers, researching new things took most time.
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
I have updated my disclosure statement. timothyblee.com/disclosure-s...
timothyblee.com
Disclosure Statement | Bottom-up
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
This is a funny joke but it also reflects biased media coverage. Conventional cars catch on fire all the time. They just don’t get covered because it’s not considered news. When i was at ars I passed on most Tesla battery fire stories for this reason.
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Official data released today shows US data center construction hitting a new all-time high of $31.5B annualized, up 43% from this time last year and 128% since the release of ChatGPT two years ago
a graph of US data center construction over time, which skyrockets after the launch of ChatGPT
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
This Texas bill sounds worse than SB 1047. Kind of incredible that it was introduced by a Republican. www.hyperdimensional.co/p/texas-plow...
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Melanie Mitchell @melaniemitchell.bsky.social · 29/12/2024
I was following the fake one!
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
What’s the deal with mastodon these days? Has it been losing ground to bluesky? Does it have a different position on the ideological spectrum? It seems likely that one of them will wind up as the default left-of-center Twitter alternative.
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Ted Underwood @tedunderwood.com · 28/12/2024
I just don't see H sapiens ceding decision-making, directive authority to machines. "But what if the machines make better decisions? Competition will force ..." Look around this ridiculous planet and ask yourself how often competition has forced hominids to cede power to the best problem-solvers.
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
It’s an interesting marketing choice to make all your big product announcements in the two weeks before Christmas.
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
Mary and Joseph had to stay in a manger because Bethlehem resorted to anti-Airbnb rules to boost housing affordability rather than rolling back Herod’s anti-supply regulations.
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
Most businesspeople are always going to prefer Republicans because of low taxes, but the post-2012 effort to *deliberately stigmatize center-left business people* was a disaster. www.slowboring.com/p/liberalism...
slowboring.com
Liberalism not socialism
Democrats need to stop acting like business careers are immoral or corrupt
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Some people are absolutely doing this for careerist reasons but also think it’s healthy for supporters of a losing candidate to honestly examine what they might have gotten wrong. The voters aren’t infallible but if a bunch of former supporters turn against you there might be some good reasons.
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
The key to low-crime cities is more police, not more incarceration. This might be the area where wokeness has most distorted Democratic policymaking. I would love to see a Democrat in 2028 run on bringing back Bill Clinton's more-cops-on-the-beat agenda. www.noahpinion.blog/p/good-citie...
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Josh Blake @joshuablake.co.uk · 23/12/2024
If you're not obsessively following AI, strong recommend below for implications of the latest models focusing on a new type of training and compute paradigm. Clearly explains what's different and the implications. Worth the subscription just for this article IMO. open.substack.com/pub/understa...
open.substack.com
It's the end of pretraining as we know it
LLM training techniques are evolving, and that has huge implications.
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Timothy B. Lee @binarybits.bsky.social · 22/12/2024
Here’s a fun and (I think) generally accurate taxonomy of AI skepticism. buildcognitiveresonance.substack.com/p/who-and-wh...
buildcognitiveresonance.substack.com
Who and What comprise AI Skepticism?
An attempt to do justice to a diverse community
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