iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ben Raue @benraue.com · 24/09/2026

Does anyone have any suggestions about how I could get a copy of this ad? From the 2001 QLD state election.

Ben Raue @benraue.com · 27/07/2026

One Nation would likely become the largest party around 29%, but you'd expect them to likely win fewer seats than either Labor or Coalition for a particular primary vote.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 27/07/2026

I have taken the vote estimates from a leaked recent Redbridge/Accent state MRP, applied my own preference flows and then made a bunch of small changes to the primary votes to get a sense of how many seats you'd expect each party to win for x% One Nation vote.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 08/07/2026

I have also estimated 2PP and 2CP margins for Bean (vs IND) and Canberra (vs GRN). I estimate that Bean has become slightly more difficult for Jessie Price, but less so than the original draft boundaries, but honestly the changes are pretty small.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 26/05/2026

No idea but we live near the top of the top loop.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 02/05/2026

I name this peculiar type of contest in Nepean, where a party narrowly in front on 3CP wins easily on either 2CP because they are in the centre of two opposing rivals, "Three Stooges Syndrome", with apologies to the Simpsons.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 22/03/2026

The Liberal Party came fourth in 17 seats, and fifth in two others! They are sitting under 10% of the primary vote in about a third of the state.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 19/03/2026

Got to wear my “15 minute cities” shirt from @tomflood.bsky.social

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 19/03/2026

It’s Ride2School Day today. My son’s school encouraged kids to ride to school and decorate their bikes. We all rode to school this morning, and the school hall was converted into a parking lot for bikes and scooters.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 27/02/2026

I've now added my estimates of how the 2025 federal results would have played out on the new boundaries. Read more at the liveblog.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 26/02/2026

Under CPV that final choice can end up like this.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 15/02/2026

It's great to have this complete data, although this picture is mostly pretty similar to when I calculated how IND 3CP flowed in the 2PP contest. Been obvious for a while that teal voters are pretty clearly left-leaning www.tallyroom.com.au/60797

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 29/01/2026

In this clip, we discuss the geography of the One Nation vote and how Labor is still in an election-winning position.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 18/11/2025

I'm putting together a few short clips from the podcast and putting them up on Instagram, here is the first one.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 29/09/2025

As for the Senate, Brandis claims the Greens would be the main beneficiaries, but this couldn’t be more wrong. The Greens at the moment are over-represented in the Senate. Expanding to 14 or 16 senators would just solidify their current seats. Most seats would go to Labor, the Coaltion or One Nation

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 17/09/2025

There seems to be a relationship with the proportion of voters moving to a new seat being less when the scale of the redistribution is bigger, but also the last two cycles have seen the most conservative map-drawing. In the blog post I run through a few examples.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 13/09/2025

Just added a primary vote map.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 13/09/2025

I've now added a 2CP booth map to my liveblog.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 12/09/2025

I was on ABC Radio Sydney this afternoon with @domknight.bsky.social discussing tomorrow's Kiama by-election. Here's a short clip #nswpol

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 12/09/2025

In another clip from yesterday's podcast, I run through the seats that would be most affected if the LNP's proposed redistribution was adopted #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 11/09/2025

Here's a version with captions.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 11/09/2025

I was joined by @mattdennien.bsky.social for this week's podcast, discussing the Queensland state redistribution. In this clip we discuss the LNP's proposal to break the city of Bundaberg in half, flipping the seat from Labor to LNP. #qldpol www.tallyroom.com.au/61911

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 05/08/2025

my kid's soccer club, and two of the clubs they've played against this season.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 02/08/2025

George Razay has been elected in Bass, just narrowly outpolling the second and third Labor candidates. Jess Greene wins the seventh seat, with Geoff Lyons missing out by a few hundred votes. Final seat count: -14 Liberal -10 Labor -5 Greens -1 Shooters -5 Independents

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 01/08/2025

Good work Google. Sure, there has literally never been a game of Aussie rules football played at that stadium, and it's entirely the wrong shape, but it'll do.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 28/07/2025

Is it possible that Labor, after polling a record low vote and winning barely a quarter of seats, could form government? Or could they have no choice but to form government? Ben discussed this topic with @cmonnox.bsky.social and @kevinbonham.bsky.social last week on the podcast #politas #tasvotes

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 25/07/2025

For this week's podcast with Chris Monnox and Kevin Bonham, we discuss the tendency in Tasmanian elections for anti-hung parliament voters to swing behind whoever can win a majority, and whether it had an effect in 2025. #tasvotes #politas

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 25/07/2025

Last Friday (day before the election) I did an interview with ABC Radio Hobart about Votes at 16. Take a listen. Is this a good way to share radio interviews? Trying a new thing.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 24/07/2025

On this week's podcast with Chris Monnox and Kevin Bonham, Ben discussed the inclusion of former federal MPs and other big names who aren't sitting state MPs on the major party tickets in the Tasmanian election, and how it will likely push out some incumbent MPs. #tasvotes www.tallyroom.com.au/60946

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 23/07/2025

I've started putting up short videos from my podcasts on Instagram, here's the latest one with @kevinbonham.bsky.social Follow thetallyroom on Instagram for more.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 13/07/2025

thankfully not as big as the 'tablecloth' ballot paper for 1999. antonygreen.com.au/wa-legislati...

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 13/07/2025

you don't need to imagine it, we have ballot papers like that for upper house PR elections in Australia. NSW Legislative Council elects 21 members at a time and due to a constitutional quirk every party needs to run 15 candidates to get full ballot access. www.abc.net.au/news/electio...

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 11/07/2025

The Office of Local Government makes this claim with absolutely no evidence. Countbacks are very stable, there is not one case where a grouped councillor wasn't replaced by a member of the same group (when there was one eligible). And if there was a change, it would reflect voters' preferences.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 05/07/2025

This change wasn't actually mentioned in the introduction to the explanatory memorandum, even though it's quite a large part of the bill. www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/bill/files/1...

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 03/07/2025

When you break this trend down by electorate, you can see that past spikes were usually isolated to 1-2 electorates. Indeed the 2021 vote for independents (mostly Johnston and Hickey) in Clark is a record not yet broken. But in 2024 the others vote spiked everywhere.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 03/07/2025

There were past spikes in the others vote, with independents putting up serious challenges in 1982 and 1996. But nothing like the 20% polled in 2024.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 03/07/2025

The total vote for the major parties was fairly consistent from 1989-2021, after declining through the 1980s. But it dropped to a new low in 2024. This flat pattern can be explained by the Tasmanian Greens growing in support much earlier than on the mainland.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 27/06/2025

The post also includes freshly-made charts showing three of the main 3CP combinations, plotting out the relative 3CP between Labor, the Coalition and either GRN/IND/ON on a triangular plot.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 25/06/2025

Finally I've calculated the proportion of each party's 2PP that came from someone else. The Labor number has been higher since the 1980s, but both numbers have gone up. In 2025, the Labor figure actually stayed steady, but the Coalition proportion hit a new high, with 29% of votes coming from others

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 25/06/2025

In 2022, the Labor 2PP was bigger but the Labor primary vote was smaller than the Coalition primary vote, as there was a hell of a lot more pro-Labor preferences. That has changed a bit now, with more pro-Coalition preferences, but it is still over 30% of the Labor 2PP that comes from someone else.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 25/06/2025

We can also see the preference flows for particular parties dating back to 1984. You might have thought Greens preference flows to Labor had hit a ceiling but you'd be wrong! Over 88% of Greens preferences went to Labor in 2025. Meanwhile ON preferences are now much more pro-Coalition.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 25/06/2025

You can calculate how preferences flowed as one big pool of votes back to 1958. Despite intense speculation that preferences would favour the Coalition more strongly than in 2022, the flow to Labor actually went up by 0.03% (which is basically nothing)

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 19/06/2025

The blog post also contains a map which you can toggle to show the change in ranks since 2004 or 2022, the greatest change in rank, and click on any seat to see its 2PP since 2004.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 19/06/2025

The post also looks at changes since 2004. For some of these seats, most of the changes had already taken place by 2022, but two seats of interest are Werriwa and Macarthur. These neighbouring seats have changed relative position, with Werriwa for the first time being outside Labor's best 75 in 2025

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 19/06/2025

18 seats have moved from Labor's best 75 to the Coalition's best 75 or vice versa. Some have only moved a short way, but Braddon moved from being the Coalition's 31st-safest seat to be on the Labor side of the chart.

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 19/06/2025

Seats like Bendigo, Solomon and Ballarat moved a long way towards the Coalition, while Braddon and Fowler moved the other way. For Fowler, this is a reversion to its normal position. It was unusual in 2022 that Labor's 2PP was so weak relative to the country. Yet this hasn't weakened Dai Le's margin

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Ben Raue @benraue.com · 18/06/2025

This would mean the Labor 2PP in Bradfield is barely any weaker than the Independent 2CP. This seems to be explained by the relatively large Labor 3CP, and a substantial number of Labor voters who didn't preference Boele. Over 8% of Labor 3CP (out of 25.8%) flowed to Liberal over Boele on the 2CP.

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