iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas

Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

New blog post! The bond vigilantes are the unsung heroes of the financial and political system. Imposing fiscal discipline on our profligate politicians. We should thank them - and heed their warning. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/in-defence...

opportunitylost.substack.com

In Defence of the Bond Vigilantes

Feeling Gilty? Part IV

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

New blog post! It's on why the Bank of England should cut interest rates this week - even though it almost certainly won't. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/what-shoul...

opportunitylost.substack.com

What Should the Bank of England Do?

It will probably get it wrong (again)

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

New blog post! Starmer's whisky trade deal with China is probably unlawful. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/is-starmer...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Is Starmer's Whisky Deal With China Unlawful?

Or will it just turn out to be a Scotch mist

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 31/01/2026

New blog post! It's on why Gordon Brown was right to sell off the country's gold reserves. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/gordon-bro...

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Back in 2024 I wrote that Trump 2.0 wouldn't mean a choice between 🇺🇸&🇪🇺 for 🇬🇧. Instead, in terms of trade, Britain's choice was always going to be between the US and China. Think it's held up pretty well. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uks-ac...

opportunitylost.substack.com

The UK's Actual Choice

Nobody wins a trade war

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

New blog post! It's why Trump is right on trade. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-is-r...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Trump Is Right On Trade

GI No

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 10/01/2026

New blog post! It's on why the UK rejoining the EU Customs Union would be a mistake. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/rejoining-...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Rejoining the Customs Union Would be a Mistake

Do these two things instead

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

New blog post! Die Hard is a Christmas film. It also has a lot to teach us about free trade and the folly of protectionism. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/what-if-di...

opportunitylost.substack.com

What If Die Hard Was Set In 2055

It’s Christmas Eve 2055 and the Christmas Party at the Nguyễn Corporation in Silicon Valley is in full swing.

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 14/12/2025

New blog post! It's time for the Bank of England to be bold and cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/what-shoul...

opportunitylost.substack.com

What Should the Bank of England Do?

Time to go big or go home

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

opportunitylost.substack.com

In Defence of the Bond Vigilantes

Feeling Gilty? Part IV

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

New blog post! The MPC was wrong to not cut interest rates on Thursday. The Budget is going to cause further damage to the labour market and demand will be far weaker than forecast by the Bank of England. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-the-ba...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Why the Bank of England is Wrong

Again...

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

I keep forgetting to use BlueSky but I'm on the @cityam.bsky.social Shadow MPC. I voted for a 25 basis points cut. In the article I explain why I hope the Bank will also vote for a cut. www.cityam.com/cut-interest...

cityam.com

Cut interest rates by 25 basis points, Shadow MPC says

Slim majority of economists on City AM’s Shadow MPC said fresh inflation data allowed the Bank of England to proceed with interest rate cuts.

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Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas

Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

Finally got around to reading the Policy Exchange how to cut public spending report. A genuinely excellent contribution to the debate. Rather starkly illustrates how hard meaningful cuts to public spending are by using actual numbers rather than weasel words. policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...

policyexchange.org.uk

Beyond Our Means - Policy Exchange

Download Publication Online Reader The UK faces a twin-pronged fiscal crisis. At about 100% of GDP, public debt is inordinately high and is set to rise a good deal further. Debt interest alone account...

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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

I will write more about this Policy Exchange report when I’m back from holiday, but broadly speaking I think it’s the most serious thinking from the British right on how you’d cut spending and the test for Con and Reform is “if you don’t like this, shut up about tax rises”.

policyexchange.org.uk

Beyond Our Means - Policy Exchange

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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

I have pretty solid admiration for this PX report by @igmansfield.bsky.social @benramanauskas.bsky.social et al, not because I love everything in it, but its honest about how if you want to cut spending, you must do hard unpopular things. policyexchange.org.uk/publication/...

policyexchange.org.uk

Beyond Our Means - Policy Exchange

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 25/10/2025

New blog post! Declining cheese exports to 🇯🇵 teaches us 5 things: FX matters; agri tariffs are too high; non-tariff barriers are a real pain; 🇬🇧 needs to get better at export promotion; & trade takes place between firms & households, not governments. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/brie-trade...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Brie Trade Agreement

What declining cheese exports to Japan can teach us about international trade

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

New blog post! It’s on why Rachel Reeves would be wrong to scrap the custom duty exemption for low value imports. It would: exacerbate the cost of living crisis; hammer small businesses; and be an attack on free trade. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/the-uk-sho...

opportunitylost.substack.com

The UK Should Not Scrap the De Minimis Exemption

5 reasons why

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 04/10/2025

Again, keep forgetting to use Bluesky but here is a new blog post. It's on why the government should unfreeze Fuel Duty before phasing it out and replacing it with road pricing. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/when-is-a-...

opportunitylost.substack.com

When is a Rabbit Actually a Hedgehog?

What to do about Fuel Duty?

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 28/09/2025

I keep forgetting to use Bluesky but I've written a new blog post. The two-child benefit cap is cruel and has failed on its own misguided terms. It should be abolished. This should be funded by scrapping the State Pension Triple Lock. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-we-sho...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Why We Should Scrap the Two-Child Benefit Cap

And how we should fund it

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 28/06/2025

Keep forgetting to use Bluesky. Anyway, here are my thoughts on the government's Trade Strategy. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/some-thoug...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Some Thoughts on the Government's Trade Strategy

Not to be confused with its Industrial Strategy or its SME Strategy

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 27/04/2025

New blog post! It's on why the government is wrong to clamp down on cheap imports. Instead it should move towards unilateral free trade and (probably) abolish the Trade Remedies Authority. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-to-ab...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Time to Abolish the Trade Remedies Authority?

Burn After Reading

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 13/04/2025

New blog post! It's on why I've changed my mind on British Steel and why I now think that (short term) nationalisation is the least bad option. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/why-ive-ch...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Why I've Changed My Mind on British Steel

Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Support Some State Intervention

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

New blog post! It's on Trump's Nixon moment and why the tariff war is actually a currency war. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/time-for-a...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Time for a Bit of Currency Manipulation?

The Day of the Triffin

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Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

A typically anti-UK diatribe from the EU-ultra equivalent of the Brexit ultras, both of them being agreed that they would like geography not to exist. @chrisgrey.bsky.social article is worth reading on the reset.

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 16/02/2025

This week I wrote for @unherd.com on why the UK shouldn't retaliate against Trump's tariffs. Instead if the government wants to support the steel industry then it needs to look at ways of lowering energy costs. unherd.com/newsroom/uk-...

unherd.com

UK steel wouldn't survive a Trump trade war

The UK Government will not be responding to Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports with its own levies — at least for the time being. Though the US President’s inclusion of Britain in h...

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Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas

Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 16/02/2025

Europe doesn't need any more wake-up calls. It's awake. It's just very comfortable in its warm bed and procrastinating on getting up in the hopes something turns up to magically take care of all the chores it knows it should be getting on with.

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Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas

Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

If today ends with tariffs - purportedly needed because of drug smuggling and illegal immigration - placed on Canada but not Mexico then I will be very confused.

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Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 03/02/2025

Britain has seen a significant divergence between its goods and services trade since Brexit. Here's 4 things you need to know 👇 Read the full analysis: buff.ly/3VjVEX3

1. Bad times for goods: Britain hasn’t been the ‘workshop of the world’
for a long time, but the fall in the relative value
of our goods exports has been accelerating.
The value of UK goods exports has risen by
just 0.3 per cent each year since 2019, far
below the OECD average of 4.2 per cent. Advanced manufacturing’ (e.g. motor vehicles
and pharmaceuticals) could play a key role in
the Government’s growth strategy, but even
these sectors are seeing slowing growth

2. Indispensable invisibles: The UK is a ‘service superpower’, selling more
internationally than any other country except
the US. Services account for more than 80 per
cent of our output, giving them a dominant
bearing on family finances. But Brexit trade barriers are also making
themselves felt here. Fields that have strongly
pivoted to digital have thrived while others
which were less able to do so have stagnated.

3. Reasons to be fearful: ‘Zoom fatigue’, regulatory barriers and the
potential of upcoming conflict over commerce
are reasons to tread carefully. Geopolitical
tensions or disputes over the tax treatment of
subsidiaries or digital sales could spur states
to put restrictions on existing ‘workarounds’ against
trade barriers. Moreover, some services are losely intertwined with goods trade. They wouldn’t escape a global goods
trade war unscathed.

4. Trade offs: Fortunately, some of the testing features of
goods trade – like hard borders – don’t hinder
services. And services trade also isn’t under
the political spotlight in the same way. So, in services there is less reason to fear
Britain being forced to ‘choose’ between
America and the EU. We should endeavour to keep our goods
trade as open as possible, as well as seeking out any
takers for negotiating
service deals. It’s time to
be pragmatic about the different ways in which progress can be forged.

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Reposted by Ben Ramanauskas

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 03/02/2025

JUST PUBLISHED: Trump's announced tariffs—25% on Mexico & Canada (besides Canadian energy, at 10%) + a 10% increase in tariffs on China—would be the largest tax increase in at least a generation. It would cost the median US household more than $1,200 a year. #PIIECharts

Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China would cost the typical US household over $1,200 a year

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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

New @nberpubs: "Divergent Paths: Differential Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on Individuals with Disabilities" buff.ly/4hlQtP9 "large minimum wage increases significantly reduce employment and labor force participation for individuals of all working ages with severe di…

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

'Happy' memories of working on the UKGT and being lobbied by Big Margarine

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Would mean that the UK is subsidising the US (in goods)

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Sad to see so many conservatives and former free traders support Trump's tariffs just because they might not be levied on us. As I wrote back in November, it's not in the UK's interests to support policies which make our trading patners poorer. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/trump-and-...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Trump and Trade Policy

By this time tomorrow we will hopefully know the outcome of the US Presidential Election.

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Never a good sign when I get asked by a producer to be interviewed on the radio. Not least of all because it means they've gone through their list and @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, @davidheniguk.bsky.social, @explaintrade.com, et al are clearly busy!

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

New blog post! Protectionism did NOT make America great. Levying high tariffs is what failed states and developing nations do and so using them to replace other taxes is a terrible idea. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/will-tarif...

opportunitylost.substack.com

Will Tariffs Make America Great Again?

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Pseudoerasmus @pseudoerasmus.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

I do not understand kale consumption. There are hundred other green things which are better than kale. Mustard greens, rapini, the non-broccoli thing sometimes called 'Chinese broccoli', leaves of the turnip plant, snow pea stems, etc. Every single one of them better than kale no matter the prep

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

I've given this a quick read and I do think it's worth your time (despite Chris disagreing with me)! I'll probably respond properly in a few days.

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Robert Colvile @rcolvile.bsky.social · 11/01/2025

Building houses leads to lower rents. (Latest in a near-infinite series.) www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

journals.uchicago.edu

The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents | Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics: Vol 0, No ja

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Iain Mansfield @igmansfield.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

One benefit to recent weeks is they confirm how right I was to leave the civil service. I'd hate to be there now, working on the onslaught of attacks on excellence, academies and parental rights. Policies that will harm tens of thousands of children. www.edrith.co.uk/p/on-leaving...

edrith.co.uk

On Leaving the Civil Service

Almost a year ago today I formally left the civil service. Handing in my notice was one of the hardest things I've voluntarily done. I'd joined the civil service immediately after leaving university a...

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Ultimately I'm sure that @benramanauskas.bsky.social is right that the UK has to choose the US over China, and that this is the real choice, but equally we have to accept that US the attempt to isolate China isn't going to work. Conundrum. capx.co/labour-must-...

capx.co

Labour must stand up to China’s communist thugs

In the aftermath of the Second World War, Britain was victorious but broke. One of the genius inventions which was developed and helped Britain to win the war was the Nene jet engine created by Rolls ...

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Went on a date and it was going really well until I told them about my weekend plans (flying with wings made for me by my dad with feathers and beeswax). Think I must have given them the Icarus...

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Pseudoerasmus @pseudoerasmus.bsky.social · 26/12/2024

The reason I cannot take too seriously the claim that globalisation started earlier than the 19th century when market integration indices shoot up is because pre-industrial pseudo-globalisation never resulted in an Italian version of xiao long bao; and no, filled pastas in brodo aren’t close enough

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Sam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

“Buying Greenland actually makes a lot of sense, in this piece I shall …”

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 15/12/2024

The UK has acceded to CPTPP. I played a very small role in this back in 2021 so it's wonderful to see the process finally completed. Here is a post I wrote a while ago on why I think this is significant for 🇬🇧 even if the economic gains are modest. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/cptpp-find...

opportunitylost.substack.com

CPTPP: Find out what it means to me

And why the Phantom Menace is the best Star Wars film

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

One from the weekend. "Those who despair at the UK’s inability to spawn a Facebook and want our kids to learn Visual Basic in nursery, often seem dismissive of our creative industries" Indeed. Why does the UK so consistently talk down our strengths? www.ft.com/content/801e...

ft.com

Triumph of the orcs: why Britain needs more Games Workshops

Those who despair at the UK’s inability to spawn a Facebook should look to the country’s creative industries

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

New blog post! It is very unlikely to happen but if Trump really wants to challenge China then he'd get the US more involved in the WTO and (re)join CPTPP. opportunitylost.substack.com/p/rip-mfn

opportunitylost.substack.com

RIP MFN

It lived an amazing life

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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

One of the best thing you can do to maintain or improve the political viability of your favorite economic policy is to not pass it during a global burst of inflation.

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Ben Ramanauskas @benramanauskas.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Please tell me that the South Korean President's supporters call themselves 'Yoonatics'?!

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